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ITT: facts about Canada's performance as an OC (not stories and heresay)

pittpitt

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Nov 30, 2002
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OK, we've established that he was fired at NC State and their fans can't figure out why (although it appears he may have been sniffing around for other jobs, specifically Pitt since he and Narduzzi are buddies), he seems to have been more run-heavy as a play caller but apparently isn't set in his offensive identity, and he was at Wisconsin for 1 year.

ITT, let's look around at actual facts and patterns of his team's offenses while being mindful of the circumstances. I'll start with some things I found:

1) Wisconsin's 2012 offense (his 1 year there) was a major step back from 2011's (Chryst's last season as their OC), dropping from 44 pts/gm (6th) to 30 pts/gm (60th). What players did they lose from their 2011 offense? Two 1st-team All-B10 offensive linemen (!) and some QB named Russell Wilson. They retained Montee Ball who again did great, but 3 QB's split time: a freshman, a transfer, and someone who hadn't played in 3 years. The freshman, Joel Stave, went on to success and had the most snaps in 2012, but this was his first season after being a 2*/UR recruit in 2011. He and the others did not do great. Ball remained 1st-team B10, joined by a WR and TE for Wisconsin, so I'm guessing without looking that they had a varied attack despite very inconsistent QB play. Canada left after that one year and they bumped up to 35 pts/gm (27th), but that was in a large degree due to it being Stave's 2nd season--and 1st as the full-time guy--and he started to do quite well.
1b) Hmm - Wisconsin predictably had very few turnovers in 2011 (see also: Russell Wilson), but they barely had more turnovers in 2012 despite a cast of nobodies running point. They went from 0.7 tov/gm to 0.9 tov/gm. In 2013, the first season after Canada left but with Stave now the full-time starter and a decent one at that, they jumped to 1.5 tov/gm due entirely to interceptions (not fumbles). The next 2 seasons: 1.9 and 1.4, so I would guess having the QB not turn the ball over is a big point of emphasis with Canada.
1c) Could the lower interception totals be due to Canada making his QB's only throw short and safe passes? I have no idea, but Stave averaged 9.3 Y/A in '12 under Canada, and then 7.4, 6.6, and 7.3 his next three seasons. Kinda odd, but it's hard to look at those numbers and think Canada was asking his QB to throw the shortest passes possible. Wilson averaged 10.3 in '11.

2) Basics about NC State's offense in 2012, right before Canada showed up: Very good QB situation (NFLer Mike Glennon's Sr year), so-so run game, 2.5 tov/gm, scoring 28 pts/gm (71st).
2b) 2013 with Canada: QB went to league and was replaced by a transfer so that was a downturn, same so-so run game, 1.8 tov/gm, 23 pts/gm (98th).
2c) 2014 & 2015: QB situation got way better, running game improved, turnovers dropped to 1.2 tov/gm then 1.0 tov/gm, and scoring went up to 30 pts/gm (56th) then 33 pts/gm (40th).
2d) NC State QB Brissett in '14 and '15 averaged only 7.0 and 6.7 Y/A, so maybe he was told to throw short & safe passes...again, I have no idea, but those are the facts.

What other facts can people find that might seem relevant?
 
Not as in depths as yours, but here are some stats as OC:

2003 Northern Illinois OC (10-2, 33ppg) - Beat #21 Alabama

2004-2006 Went to Indiana as a QB coach

2007-2010 Indiana OC (7-6, 28ppg), (3-9, 20ppg), (4-8, 23ppg), (5-7, 27ppg)

2011 Northern Illinois OC (11-3, 38ppg) – MAC Champions

2012 Wisconsin OC (8-6, 30ppg) – Beat #12 Nebraska 70-31, Big 10 Champions

2013-2015 NC State OC (3-9, 20ppg), (8-5, 30ppg), (7-6, 33ppg)
 
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OK, we've established that he was fired at NC State and their fans can't figure out why (although it appears he may have been sniffing around for other jobs, specifically Pitt since he and Narduzzi are buddies), he seems to have been more run-heavy as a play caller but apparently isn't set in his offensive identity, and he was at Wisconsin for 1 year.

ITT, let's look around at actual facts and patterns of his team's offenses while being mindful of the circumstances. I'll start with some things I found:

1) Wisconsin's 2012 offense (his 1 year there) was a major step back from 2011's (Chryst's last season as their OC), dropping from 44 pts/gm (6th) to 30 pts/gm (60th). What players did they lose from their 2011 offense? Two 1st-team All-B10 offensive linemen (!) and some QB named Russell Wilson. They retained Montee Ball who again did great, but 3 QB's split time: a freshman, a transfer, and someone who hadn't played in 3 years. The freshman, Joel Stave, went on to success and had the most snaps in 2012, but this was his first season after being a 2*/UR recruit in 2011. He and the others did not do great. Ball remained 1st-team B10, joined by a WR and TE for Wisconsin, so I'm guessing without looking that they had a varied attack despite very inconsistent QB play. Canada left after that one year and they bumped up to 35 pts/gm (27th), but that was in a large degree due to it being Stave's 2nd season--and 1st as the full-time guy--and he started to do quite well.
1b) Hmm - Wisconsin predictably had very few turnovers in 2011 (see also: Russell Wilson), but they barely had more turnovers in 2012 despite a cast of nobodies running point. They went from 0.7 tov/gm to 0.9 tov/gm. In 2013, the first season after Canada left but with Stave now the full-time starter and a decent one at that, they jumped to 1.5 tov/gm due entirely to interceptions (not fumbles). The next 2 seasons: 1.9 and 1.4, so I would guess having the QB not turn the ball over is a big point of emphasis with Canada.
1c) Could the lower interception totals be due to Canada making his QB's only throw short and safe passes? I have no idea, but Stave averaged 9.3 Y/A in '12 under Canada, and then 7.4, 6.6, and 7.3 his next three seasons. Kinda odd, but it's hard to look at those numbers and think Canada was asking his QB to throw the shortest passes possible. Wilson averaged 10.3 in '11.

2) Basics about NC State's offense in 2012, right before Canada showed up: Very good QB situation (NFLer Mike Glennon's Sr year), so-so run game, 2.5 tov/gm, scoring 28 pts/gm (71st).
2b) 2013 with Canada: QB went to league and was replaced by a transfer so that was a downturn, same so-so run game, 1.8 tov/gm, 23 pts/gm (98th).
2c) 2014 & 2015: QB situation got way better, running game improved, turnovers dropped to 1.2 tov/gm then 1.0 tov/gm, and scoring went up to 30 pts/gm (56th) then 33 pts/gm (40th).
2d) NC State QB Brissett in '14 and '15 averaged only 7.0 and 6.7 Y/A, so maybe he was told to throw short & safe passes...again, I have no idea, but those are the facts.

What other facts can people find that might seem relevant?

Very nice analysis. Impressive collection of facts. From the thoroughness of your analysis, it's safe to assume that you do not work for a major news agency.

Cruzer
 
"pittpitt, post: 725673, member: 1218"]OK, we've established that he was fired at NC State and their fans can't figure out why (although it appears he may have been sniffing around for other jobs, specifically Pitt since he and Narduzzi are buddies), he seems to have been more run-heavy as a play caller but apparently isn't set in his offensive identity, and he was at Wisconsin for 1 year.
I see Narduzzi did state he will be given his freedom to run the Offense without interference and I suspect Barry Alvarez was without a doubt interfering and poking his nose in everything at Wisconsin and why he has 3 Coaches in 4 years and turned to Chryst to be a loyal subject?

ITT, let's look around at actual facts and patterns of his team's offenses while being mindful of the circumstances. I'll start with some things I found:

1) Wisconsin's 2012 offense (his 1 year there) was a major step back from 2011's (Chryst's last season as their OC), dropping from 44 pts/gm (6th) to 30 pts/gm (60th). What players did they lose from their 2011 offense? Two 1st-team All-B10 offensive linemen (!) and some QB named Russell Wilson. They retained Montee Ball who again did great, but 3 QB's split time: a freshman, a transfer, and someone who hadn't played in 3 years. The freshman, Joel Stave, went on to success and had the most snaps in 2012, but this was his first season after being a 2*/UR recruit in 2011. He and the others did not do great. Ball remained 1st-team B10, joined by a WR and TE for Wisconsin, so I'm guessing without looking that they had a varied attack despite very inconsistent QB play. Canada left after that one year and they bumped up to 35 pts/gm (27th), but that was in a large degree due to it being Stave's 2nd season--and 1st as the full-time guy--and he started to do quite well.
1b) Hmm - Wisconsin predictably had very few turnovers in 2011 (see also: Russell Wilson), but they barely had more turnovers in 2012 despite a cast of nobodies running point. They went from 0.7 tov/gm to 0.9 tov/gm. In 2013, the first season after Canada left but with Stave now the full-time starter and a decent one at that, they jumped to 1.5 tov/gm due entirely to interceptions (not fumbles). The next 2 seasons: 1.9 and 1.4, so I would guess having the QB not turn the ball over is a big point of emphasis with Canada.
1c) Could the lower interception totals be due to Canada making his QB's only throw short and safe passes? I have no idea, but Stave averaged 9.3 Y/A in '12 under Canada, and then 7.4, 6.6, and 7.3 his next three seasons. Kinda odd, but it's hard to look at those numbers and think Canada was asking his QB to throw the shortest passes possible. Wilson averaged 10.3 in '11.
Good analysis, and I think backs up Wisconsin is run by Barry Alvarez still more than any Head Coach or OC?

2) Basics about NC State's offense in 2012, right before Canada showed up: Very good QB situation (NFLer Mike Glennon's Sr year), so-so run game, 2.5 tov/gm, scoring 28 pts/gm (71st).
2b) 2013 with Canada: QB went to league and was replaced by a transfer so that was a downturn, same so-so run game, 1.8 tov/gm, 23 pts/gm (98th).
2c) 2014 & 2015: QB situation got way better, running game improved, turnovers dropped to 1.2 tov/gm then 1.0 tov/gm, and scoring went up to 30 pts/gm (56th) then 33 pts/gm (40th).
2d) NC State QB Brissett in '14 and '15 averaged only 7.0 and 6.7 Y/A, so maybe he was told to throw short & safe passes...again, I have no idea, but those are the facts. What other facts can people find that might seem relevant?
NCS Head Coach Dave Doeren was at Wisconsin too from 2006 to 2010 on Defense as Co-DC, so Narduzzi knows about Doeren being in the Big Ten coaching against him?

Doeren then moved to Head Coach of Northern Illinois 2011-12 and went 23-4 taking over Jerry Kill's Teama nd Players.

Doeren is now 18-20 at NCS so pressure to win might have cause changes and signs when Assistants are let go is a sign the Head coach is often looking for scapegoats and excuses, and makes changes before they get changed? Happen to Mike London at UVA!


LINK:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Doeren
 
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3) Canada goes to Indiana as their QB coach in '04. In '03 their QB situation is abysmal, as was their offense (15 pts/gm, 115th). In '04 with the same QB as the year before (ND transfer Matt LoVecchio), he completely turns things around his Sr year and goes from 53%, 6.1 Y/A, 3-9 TD-Int, 102 QBR to 57%, 7.2, 13-7, 128. The offense went up 9 pts/gm. In '05 the new starter is not-so-great and throws 16 picks (I point this out because it's now clear that Canada emphasizes not turning the ball over), then in '06 that starter is benched and a new guy starts and as a freshman goes 14-7 TD-Int.
3b) After 3 years as Indiana's QB coach, Canada becomes their OC in '07. Last year's starting QB Kellen Lewis is now a sophomore and he gets great (60%, 233 yds/gm, 28-10 TD-Int). Not only that, the running game goes from bad (top 3 rushers in '06 averaged 3.6, 3.9, 3.6 yds/carry) to OK (5.0, 4.1, 4.2). Scoring jumps from 23 pts/gm in '06 (63rd) to 32 pts/gm (39th) in Canada's first season at the helm of the offense. For some reason their fumbles are really high.
3c) Next 3 seasons as Indiana's OC: In '08 the QB situation gets inconsistent and goes in the toilet (although they only throw 11 picks all season), but the rushing game gets good (167 yds/gm, top 3 rushers avg 6.7, 5.4, 4.3 yds/carry). Team drops to 21 pts/gm. Something happened, but no idea what. In '09 the new starting QB throws 15 picks against 17 TD's but is actually OK overall, and although the top RB averages 4.9 yds/carry the overall run game is crap. They score 24 pts/gm. In '10, last year's QB improves dramatically to 24-9 TD-Int, but the running game is basically non-existent (100 yds/gm). Team improves to 27 pts/gm (56th). Canada leaves and their scoring in '11 drops to 21 pts/gm (102nd).

4) Hard to get anything out of his '11 season as Northern Illinois' OC. Why? Because they averaged 38 pts/gm in '10, 38 pts/gm in '11, and 39 pts/gm in '12 (which was Jordan Lynch's monster breakout season = 3100 passing, 1800 rushing, 44 TD's). Their '11 offense was definitely much more balanced than '10's and it didn't use a do-it-all superstar like Lynch in '12, so maybe it was a great job on Canada's part. The team had super-low interception totals all of those seasons.
 
"jsawyer95, post: 726219, member: 23960"]Good analysis. It's going to be impossible to know what to expect from a Canada-led Pitt offense because the situations are more complicated than we know from the outside looking in.
Agree a tad and disagree a tadder, it is an unknown and certainly more complicated bringing in a New OC but he knows the Wisconsin, Northern Illinois and NCS Systems that Narduzzi wants to continue and put in along OC Matt learning his Offense at Indiana!

It is will be slow to see and know the progress because Coach Pat & Staff keep info close to them, and changes will be seen in Spring Ball for Wideouts, Running Backs, and Tight Ends with OL, and that makes it improbable to know right away, but not impossible later?
 
Most importantly to me, HCPN knows Canada's offense and they obviously have a good working relationship. Canada has proven to be adaptable and I think it's key that he is a known commodity to our staff.
 
Well it will be run heavy and anyone on this board that says we should have brought in a spread guy or passing guy with the sh!t receivers we bring back.next year and with Ollison and conner is a complete idiot.
 
SUMMARIZING CANADA'S OFFENSES
1) He is very good at having QB's not throw interceptions. It's such an overarching trend on his career, this is clearly a huge point of emphasis for him as QB Coach and OC.
2) He likes a heavy dose of running and appears to be good at creating a productive run game, but he isn't married to it if the OL isn't built for it and the passing game is clearly better (I'm looking at what happened at Indiana).
3) His offenses all show a clear upward trend in pts/gm at the schools he's stayed at a few years.
4) His offenses regularly have numerous receivers with 250-600 yards on the season without a clear stand-out.
4b) He's had numerous TE's do very well in his offenses, including Jaylen Samuels at NCSt last year (he's a 5'11" converted FB who made 2nd-team All-ACC -- the only NCSt skill position player to make any of the 3 teams despite the team being 3rd in scoring). I'm thinking this point and 1 above are connected in guessing how safe Canada keeps his passing game.
4c) The obvious exception to him having a slew of guys with so-so receiving stats is when he has a super-dynamic receiver who eventually gets drafted, then they pile it up individually (particularly with James Hardy and Tandon Doss at Indiana, 2nd and 4th rounders, respectively).
***It may seem like points 4 and 4c dovetail together to broadly cover all situations, but really what I'm pointing out is that he doesn't force a receiver to be a go-to #1 guy unless he really is a special receiver. For this reason, I would expect Winfree, Flowers, Ford, Orndoff, and some combination of Challingworth/Whitehead/Ffrench/Lopes/Henderson/Zeise/Tipton/Ivery to all have a consistent 25-50 yards/gm with 3-5 TD's each, unless Flowers comes in as a legit NFL talent or if Canada goes heavy on the Orndoff-8-yards-downfield throws all season (ties into 4b).
 
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