Some things I've noticed looking at Kenpom stats:
-Johnson and McGowens are really struggling this year and their numbers explain why. Johnson's Offensive rating (Ortg) is a 94.4 (down from 98.3) and McGowens is 96.7 (down from 99.2). For some context, a good basketball team should have all of its regular starters with O ratings over 100 with 110 being good and 120 being outstanding. For comparison the 2014 Pitt team had everyone on the roster over 100, with Cam Wright being the low at 104 and James Robinson being the high at 119.7. So frankly, these two are not playing anywhere near the quality they would need for the NBA and also really not anywhere near the ACC-level they should be.
The main problem I see is that Johnson and McGowens are just not drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line at the rate they did last year. McGowens has dropped from ~60 to 40 FTrate and Johnson has dropped from ~55 to 40 FTrate. Otherwise, most of their stats are somewhat similar to last year (McGowens has increased his assist rate substantially though). This lack of improvement in their sophomore year is troubling.
-On the flip side, we have Champagnie and Toney. Toney has the highest Ortg with 113.8 and Champagnie is 110.7. Champagnie is pretty good at everything but not outstanding in any one thing (except maybe in not turning the ball over). He's an all-around solid player (and only a freshman) and if he can get his 3% up he will be very good. Toney has dramatically improved his ability to finish, improving his 2P% from 41% to 54% in 2020. His rebounding numbers are actually slightly down from last year, but he doesn't turn the ball over and unlike Johnson and McGowens he is continuing to draw fouls and get to the free throw line at a similar rate.
-Terrell Brown has also improved quite a bit this year (Ortg 109 up from 95 last year). He's always been a great shot blocker (#21 in the country right now), but his 2% is 56% right now, highest on the team (65% in ACC play and a 118 Ortg!). He is a good offensive rebounder, but his defensive rebounding has dropped this year and is relaly too low for someone of his size. All in all, Brown has really turned into a solid player this year and I think is senior year will be his best.
-Murphy, there's really not much to say (102.4 Ortg). His only value to the team is his 3% and FT%. He is shooting 36% from 3 and 40% in ACC play. He is a role player with a very specific niche.
-Hamilton has been a really solid player (112 Ortg). Good rebounder, can score (54%), and play a little defense. The combination of Hamilton and Brown's improvement has really helped this year to solidify the 5 spot and we are going to really need Brown to step into a full time role next year.
All in all, looking at everything objectively, Champagnie and Toney are the foundation of this team. Johnson and McGowens need to improve dramatically next year if they want to go to the NBA. They clearly have the skills, but they are just not efficient enough. In the NBA, eFG% is easily the most important factor, followed by TO%, OR%, and FTRate. Right now, their not shooting it well enough, they turn the ball over, and their not getting to the line enough. I really hope they focus on these things in the offseason and bounce back next year. If they can't improve, I think this is why Capel is looking to add a guard to the recruiting class.
-Johnson and McGowens are really struggling this year and their numbers explain why. Johnson's Offensive rating (Ortg) is a 94.4 (down from 98.3) and McGowens is 96.7 (down from 99.2). For some context, a good basketball team should have all of its regular starters with O ratings over 100 with 110 being good and 120 being outstanding. For comparison the 2014 Pitt team had everyone on the roster over 100, with Cam Wright being the low at 104 and James Robinson being the high at 119.7. So frankly, these two are not playing anywhere near the quality they would need for the NBA and also really not anywhere near the ACC-level they should be.
The main problem I see is that Johnson and McGowens are just not drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line at the rate they did last year. McGowens has dropped from ~60 to 40 FTrate and Johnson has dropped from ~55 to 40 FTrate. Otherwise, most of their stats are somewhat similar to last year (McGowens has increased his assist rate substantially though). This lack of improvement in their sophomore year is troubling.
-On the flip side, we have Champagnie and Toney. Toney has the highest Ortg with 113.8 and Champagnie is 110.7. Champagnie is pretty good at everything but not outstanding in any one thing (except maybe in not turning the ball over). He's an all-around solid player (and only a freshman) and if he can get his 3% up he will be very good. Toney has dramatically improved his ability to finish, improving his 2P% from 41% to 54% in 2020. His rebounding numbers are actually slightly down from last year, but he doesn't turn the ball over and unlike Johnson and McGowens he is continuing to draw fouls and get to the free throw line at a similar rate.
-Terrell Brown has also improved quite a bit this year (Ortg 109 up from 95 last year). He's always been a great shot blocker (#21 in the country right now), but his 2% is 56% right now, highest on the team (65% in ACC play and a 118 Ortg!). He is a good offensive rebounder, but his defensive rebounding has dropped this year and is relaly too low for someone of his size. All in all, Brown has really turned into a solid player this year and I think is senior year will be his best.
-Murphy, there's really not much to say (102.4 Ortg). His only value to the team is his 3% and FT%. He is shooting 36% from 3 and 40% in ACC play. He is a role player with a very specific niche.
-Hamilton has been a really solid player (112 Ortg). Good rebounder, can score (54%), and play a little defense. The combination of Hamilton and Brown's improvement has really helped this year to solidify the 5 spot and we are going to really need Brown to step into a full time role next year.
All in all, looking at everything objectively, Champagnie and Toney are the foundation of this team. Johnson and McGowens need to improve dramatically next year if they want to go to the NBA. They clearly have the skills, but they are just not efficient enough. In the NBA, eFG% is easily the most important factor, followed by TO%, OR%, and FTRate. Right now, their not shooting it well enough, they turn the ball over, and their not getting to the line enough. I really hope they focus on these things in the offseason and bounce back next year. If they can't improve, I think this is why Capel is looking to add a guard to the recruiting class.
