Looking for good tips hunches on SB prop bets

[PittPanthers90]

Anyone got any good tips on some of the larger odds for Superbowl prop bets?

Starting to look into this.

Note: Has to do with the game itself as I'm in NY so no commercial stuff or anything like that.

 

[maxxwell]

Have Deebo Samuel to win the MVP at 25-1. His role on the team has been expanding and he’s an explosive player. I don’t see a SF win as automatically being a Jimmy G mvp win.

 

[Chem95]

Get on one of the sites that offers a free bet. Lay as much as possible for a safety. I saw rivers paying 9 to 1.

 

[BFo8]

Get on one of the sites that offers a free bet. Lay as much as possible for a safety. I saw rivers paying 9 to 1.

If you want to bet there will be a safety you pretty much have to bet it as soon as props come out to get the good + number. What usually happens is the public only bets the yes and the number keeps getting lowered and lowered. Right before the game is when the sharp guys come in and take the no at the drastically reduced number. Statistically wise there is always some value in that play at the low price.

 

[PittPanthers90]

If you want to bet there will be a safety you pretty much have to bet it as soon as props come out to get the good + number. What usually happens is the public only bets the yes and the number keeps getting lowered and lowered. Right before the game is when the sharp guys come in and take the no at the drastically reduced number. Statistically wise there is always some value in that play at the low price.

Already at 8-1 at Rivers in NY for the safety.
I'm trying to find some bets just lay $5-10 on a bunch of them on some of the longer shot ones just for a little fun and hope one (or more) hits

 

[PittPanthers90]

Any of these look good?

 

[BFo8]

Already at 8-1 at Rivers in NY for the safety.
I'm trying to find some bets just lay $5-10 on a bunch of them on some of the longer shot ones just for a little fun and hope one (or more) hits

You can always bet each (individual) QB’s first pass will be incomplete. Each will be + money and you only need one of them to misfire to make a small profit.

Will any team score 3 consecutive times is always a popular one with the public always betting no, the yes tends to hit more often than not at a decent price.

Another one is shortest TD scored at over/under 1.5 yards. The public almost always plays the over, but the under is usually a solid play at a nice price.

If you have time it is often worth it to look into some of the cross sport props. Usually for the basketball/hockey/soccer players they tend to use season averages for their numbers and you can find some bargains. They put their props out a week ago or more, sometimes you will find a big scorer who has been mired in a slump the last few games or a 12 ppg scorer who strung together a couple 20 point games in a row and is on a hot streak.

Another thing to keep in mind is during Super Bowl weeks you can find some real bargains in other sports. These books are so dominated with booking and adjusting their Super Bowl stuff that they have little to no time to adjust their futures odds in other sports. You may find a college basketball team that beats 2 top ten teams leading up to the Super Bowl, but their futures odds won’t be adjusted at all because book employees just don’t have time to even look at futures in other sports.

 

[maxxwell]

If you’re looking for bigger odds and dealing with a more limited wagering menu I think your only choices are in the MVP and first TD categories. For instance, for MVP Richard Sherman is 75-1 and Butker is 100-1. Garropolo is 45-1 to score 1st TD. None of those is inconceivable.

 

[wicker]

George Kittle at 10-1 for first TD

 

[lilspainishflea]

Have Deebo Samuel to win the MVP at 25-1. His role on the team has been expanding and he’s an explosive player. I don’t see a SF win as automatically being a Jimmy G mvp win.

Totally agree with this logic. If you think the 49ers will win, go with someone other than Jimmy G as MVP. Only 2 QBs in the past 20 years have won MVP throwing for under 250 yards - Peyton Manning (245) and Brady (2001). Jimmy has only thrown for over 250 twice in his last seven games.

If SF wins, you're better off playing longer odds guys like Sanders, Deebo, and even Bosa who could get the nod as the best player on the defense that won the game. I actually think Bosa's value at 35-1 is pretty good.

 

[lilspainishflea]

Any of these look good?

View embedded media

Rather than taking a bunch of weird prop bets, have you thought about doing a parley?

Mostert O 80 rushing yards
Mahomes O 300 passing yards
Kelce O 75 receiving yards
Total sacks O 4.5

 

[BuffetParrothead]

Just noticed on the internet some guy just bet $525k on KC which moved the line.

Dont know who.

Probably one of Mrs Buffett's Vegas acquaintances?lol.

 

[maxxwell]

Just noticed on the internet some guy just bet $525k on KC which moved the line.

Dont know who.

Probably one of Mrs Buffett's Vegas acquaintances?lol.

Mattress Mack supposedly has a mill on SF.

 

[BFo8]

Just noticed on the internet some guy just bet $525k on KC which moved the line.

Dont know who.

Probably one of Mrs Buffett's Vegas acquaintances?lol.

The moving the line part is absolute fake news, that’s not how casinos book games.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

What do you think of this betting strategy?

Sign up for one of those $500 risk free sites. Bet on something (like coin toss). If I win, I cash out $500. If I lose, I have $500 in site credit that I have to bet. Bet that on something else, if I win I cash out $500. If I lose, well I lose $500.

 

[PittPanthers90]

What do you think of this betting strategy?

Sign up for one of those $500 risk free sites. Bet on something (like coin toss). If I win, I cash out $500. If I lose, I have $500 in site credit that I have to bet. Bet that on something else, if I win I cash out $500. If I lose, well I lose $500.

The numbers don't quite add up when you consider the juice/vig

 

[BFo8]

What do you think of this betting strategy?

Sign up for one of those $500 risk free sites. Bet on something (like coin toss). If I win, I cash out $500. If I lose, I have $500 in site credit that I have to bet. Bet that on something else, if I win I cash out $500. If I lose, well I lose $500.

If you’re going to do something like that make sure bets like the coin flip are eligible, as some places limit these bonus offers to sides or totals only. If so you may find some value, often Vegas books will list the coin flip as -101 on either side so that’s not bad.

If it’s a $500 free play for a $500 deposit, a much better strategy is to have a friend/spouse open an account at the same time and bet the opposite sides. One will lose his $500 free play, the other will win and have $1500 in his account. Cash out both accounts and you each make a quick $250 profit each. Or if you have the patience and creativity to pull it off on one particular book have 20 friends and family do the same thing. That’s a profit of 5k, offer the 20 friends $100 each for a few minutes of work and keep 3k for yourself.

This type of activity is known as “bonus whoring” and was a fixture of the early days of offshore books. Maybe 10-15 years ago there were guys making 6 figures a year running groups of bonus whores with very little risk. Some books went out of business solely because of these and other similar promotions and the rules changed and the rollovers became much higher.

Now with legalization becoming more widespread in the US the candy store was somewhat open for business again and there have been some groups going state to state taking advantage of these and other promos.

 

[Safety Blitz]

Best bet:
Keep your money in your pocket and just enjoy the game.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Best bet:
Keep your money in your pocket and just enjoy the game.

good advice

buy yourself a nice meal instead of hoping for “easy money “

 

[maxxwell]

I actually think Bosa's value at 35-1 is pretty good.

If I could get 35-1 on Bosa, I'd throw a few dollars on it. Article I read at Vegas Insider threw out Armstead at 150-1 as a flyer option with the thinking the Chiefs would double team Bosa.

 

[bjcst27]

Dre Greenlaw under 5.5 tackles even money. Alexander is back and should be healthy. Greenlaw hasn’t had more than 3 tackles when Alexander plays. He built up his numbers when he was out and it looks like that is what was taken into account.