Gary Parrish, who is as well sourced as you'll find when it comes to coaches and coaching searches, breaks down the current state of coaching changes. The most pertinent areas are bolded for effect.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...offer-its-unwise-to-target-a-list-candidates/
College basketball's coaching carousel has just about stopped spinning. The only thing left to decide is Delaware's coach. But all nine Power-5 jobs that opened have been filled.
And guess what?
Gregg Marshall didn't take any of them.
Neither did Archie Miller. Neither did Chris Mack.
And it should serve as a reminder for every AD in the country, and the reminder is this: unless you have a top-10 job in the sport to offer, you're likely not going to be able to hire an established and successful coach with a decent job who isn't running from something.
That's what recent history tells us.
Did you realize that 40 Power-5 jobs have opened in the past five years, and exactly two of them -- UCLA and Texas -- have been filled by established and successful coaches with decent jobs who weren't running from something. That's it. UCLA hired Steve Alford in 2013. And Texas hired Shaka Smart in 2015. But literally every other job that's opened in the past five years has been filled by one of the following types of coaches:
In other words, if you're an AD at a school with an opening inferior to UCLA and Texas, -- i.e, if you don't have what amounts to a top-10 job in the sport to offer -- set your sights lower. Because unless you can buck the trend, you're not going to get what you want.
Which makes almost every coaching search hysterical these days.
The UNLV job opens, and UNLV reportedly has a shot at Rick Pitino. Then that goes nowhere. And UNLV instead ends up hiring the first-year Little Rock coach (Chris Beard), who quickly leaves UNLV, which leads to UNLV hiring New Mexico State's coach (Marvin Menzies). The Pitt job opens, and Pitt is reportedly going to make a run at one of the Miller brothers -- either Sean or Archie, both of whom are from the area. Then that goes nowhere. And Pitt ends up instead hiring the Vanderbilt coach (Kevin Stallings) that Vanderbilt was reportedly close to removing. The Georgia Tech job opens, and Georgia Tech is reportedly going to target Chris Mack or Bryce Drew. Then that goes nowhere. And Georgia Tech ends up hiring the Memphis coach (Josh Pastner) that the Memphis administration was only going to keep because it couldn't afford to fire him, and the Memphis coach that Memphis literally paid $1.255 million to take Georgia Tech's job.
This is the way it almost always goes.
Every athletic director starts a coaching search determined to land a Mercedes, then exits the lot, if you will, with something closer to a Datsun ... or a beat-up Mercedes its previous owner didn't really want anymore anyway. The only exceptions, for the most part, are when a school hires a man who is completely out of coaching -- like Auburn did when it hired Bruce Pearl, like Mississippi State did when it hired Ben Howland. Or when a school hires a coach who is running from his current spot for any number of reasons -- like when South Carolina got a Frank Martin who just wanted out of Kansas State no matter what, and Virginia Tech got a Buzz Williams who just wanted out of Marquette no matter what, and TCU got a Jamie Dixon who ultimately realized if Pitt fans weren't happy making 11 NCAA Tournaments in a 13-year span, then nothing he was going to be able to do going forward was going to make Pitt fans happy.
None of this, by the way, is meant to suggest you can't hire Gregg Marshall.
Or Archie Miller.
Or Chris Mack.
It's just that recent history suggests if you're going to try to hire one of them -- or somebody like them -- you'd better be the AD at a place like North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Indiana, Arizona, Texas, Ohio State, Louisville or UCLA. Short of that, you're likely shopping on the wrong aisle and wasting your time -- no matter how much money you have to spend.
That's what the coaching carousel told us this year.
Which is the same thing it told us last year.
And the year before that.
So on and so forth.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...offer-its-unwise-to-target-a-list-candidates/
College basketball's coaching carousel has just about stopped spinning. The only thing left to decide is Delaware's coach. But all nine Power-5 jobs that opened have been filled.
And guess what?
Gregg Marshall didn't take any of them.
Neither did Archie Miller. Neither did Chris Mack.
And it should serve as a reminder for every AD in the country, and the reminder is this: unless you have a top-10 job in the sport to offer, you're likely not going to be able to hire an established and successful coach with a decent job who isn't running from something.
That's what recent history tells us.
Did you realize that 40 Power-5 jobs have opened in the past five years, and exactly two of them -- UCLA and Texas -- have been filled by established and successful coaches with decent jobs who weren't running from something. That's it. UCLA hired Steve Alford in 2013. And Texas hired Shaka Smart in 2015. But literally every other job that's opened in the past five years has been filled by one of the following types of coaches:
- An under-compensated mid-major coach
- An assistant
- An unemployed coach
- A coach-on-the-run for one reason or another
In other words, if you're an AD at a school with an opening inferior to UCLA and Texas, -- i.e, if you don't have what amounts to a top-10 job in the sport to offer -- set your sights lower. Because unless you can buck the trend, you're not going to get what you want.
Which makes almost every coaching search hysterical these days.
The UNLV job opens, and UNLV reportedly has a shot at Rick Pitino. Then that goes nowhere. And UNLV instead ends up hiring the first-year Little Rock coach (Chris Beard), who quickly leaves UNLV, which leads to UNLV hiring New Mexico State's coach (Marvin Menzies). The Pitt job opens, and Pitt is reportedly going to make a run at one of the Miller brothers -- either Sean or Archie, both of whom are from the area. Then that goes nowhere. And Pitt ends up instead hiring the Vanderbilt coach (Kevin Stallings) that Vanderbilt was reportedly close to removing. The Georgia Tech job opens, and Georgia Tech is reportedly going to target Chris Mack or Bryce Drew. Then that goes nowhere. And Georgia Tech ends up hiring the Memphis coach (Josh Pastner) that the Memphis administration was only going to keep because it couldn't afford to fire him, and the Memphis coach that Memphis literally paid $1.255 million to take Georgia Tech's job.
This is the way it almost always goes.
Every athletic director starts a coaching search determined to land a Mercedes, then exits the lot, if you will, with something closer to a Datsun ... or a beat-up Mercedes its previous owner didn't really want anymore anyway. The only exceptions, for the most part, are when a school hires a man who is completely out of coaching -- like Auburn did when it hired Bruce Pearl, like Mississippi State did when it hired Ben Howland. Or when a school hires a coach who is running from his current spot for any number of reasons -- like when South Carolina got a Frank Martin who just wanted out of Kansas State no matter what, and Virginia Tech got a Buzz Williams who just wanted out of Marquette no matter what, and TCU got a Jamie Dixon who ultimately realized if Pitt fans weren't happy making 11 NCAA Tournaments in a 13-year span, then nothing he was going to be able to do going forward was going to make Pitt fans happy.
None of this, by the way, is meant to suggest you can't hire Gregg Marshall.
Or Archie Miller.
Or Chris Mack.
It's just that recent history suggests if you're going to try to hire one of them -- or somebody like them -- you'd better be the AD at a place like North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Indiana, Arizona, Texas, Ohio State, Louisville or UCLA. Short of that, you're likely shopping on the wrong aisle and wasting your time -- no matter how much money you have to spend.
That's what the coaching carousel told us this year.
Which is the same thing it told us last year.
And the year before that.
So on and so forth.
