Miami favored by 7.5 tonight
- Thread starter UPitt '89
- Start date
That really is quite an amazing stat with our record and scores above 71 and below 62.
I think we break that stat today. We'll score between 62 and 71, but I'm not thinking we'll win.
Aren't we due for a hot shooting game? If we're shooting well, I think we can hang with anybody.
Hard to believe that we beat that ND team on their home floor.
Yea, its kinda funny because Pitt has either played really well or really bad. We havent had any workmanlike, just "ok" performances. Either feast or famine. Even FSU was a tale of 2 halves. Dreadful 1st Half, great 2nd half.
To me, we need 30 points from our backcourt every night. If we cant get 10 from Robinson, 4 from Wilson, 10 from Smith and 6 from Jones, forget it.
We need 30 from the backcourt, 35 from Artis and Young and 10 from Jeter. That's the formula.
To me, we need 30 points from our backcourt every night. If we cant get 10 from Robinson, 4 from Wilson, 10 from Smith and 6 from Jones, forget it.
We need 30 from the backcourt, 35 from Artis and Young and 10 from Jeter. That's the formula.
I don't believe this is quite true. We have offensively skilled players. But if they start off slow, they seem to wallow and lose all confidence.
Or if they fall behind, they press on offense.
When Jamie sees that start to happen could he make things easier for the team by calling for a set play? I know years ago (back when we were good) we sometimes ran a set play or a play for an individual player.
Remember when popular consensus was that our program was held back because Dixon micromanaged and didn't "unleash" the players? Now people think we are bad because Dixon hasn't considered calling a play while trailing.
What is impressive is Larranaga turned over that ACC champion, Sweet 16 roster entirely.....and has another group of excellent players looking like a Sweet 16 team.
Against Virginia, I saw Pitt on three consecutive possessions attempt to drive into the lane from the top of the key only to have the ball handler be doubled, lose the ball and give up a breakaway turnover. Maybe if Jamie had called a play after the first two, the third would not have happened.
Maybe if he recruit better guards, his current one is not good enough for the conference
Had to laugh out loud this morning when I read the post gazette article on Pitt. In it the Miami coach mentions that they have to stop Robinson and he is so underrated and yada yada yada. Guarantee Larranaga is licking his chops knowing his team is facing JRob. More bs spin for the press.
Agree totally - have been saying this since the season Woodall went down: Not enough point guards - too many 6-5 to 6-8 tweeners.
I don't think Miami is even a top 15 team like their #12 ranking would indicate. But I really don't know how the spread would be any less tonight. Pitt may win the game, but if they don't, I can almost guarantee it will be by more than 8 points.
Either that or he understands the game better than you.
Nah, you're right, it can't be that.
By the way, to me the odd thing about the point spread is that it has been coming down ever since it first came out. I can't believe lots of people are betting on Pitt, but apparently they are.
A little surprised at well, but at the same time a lot of gamblers will not give that many points. I'm sure the people who bet on Pitt though weren't jumping for joy though knowing they got even that many points.
Pitt will lose by at least 12. I wouldn't touch this game betting on Pitt. The whole team is in disarray.
Miami was a 2-seed in the NCAA tournament just 3 years ago.
It's not like they're coming out of nowhere.
I was channeling Poker. He is never right, so I knew it would jinx it (just kidding Poker).Or.....up by 5.
I didn't. I missed the first half. Was reading books to my girl. Of course, I had to check the score after I tucked her in. Great news so far!
If we can't stop them from scoring, i may have to turn it off.
Almost everything I read here on betting patterns/pointspreads is totally incorrect (don't kill me Joe). Miami was never favored by anything close to 9.5 anywhere on the planet. That open number you see on Vegas Insider is not bettable anywhere and is essentially meaningless. A couple places in Vegas opened at 8.5, but almost everyone opened at Miami -8.
Also, there may have been more money bet on Pitt, but not necessarily so. Public money very rarely moves pointspreads, who is doing the betting is infinitely more important. To give an example the limit on college basketball games in Las Vegas is usually $3000. If Floyd Mayweather comes to the window and wants to bet $800,000 on Miami -7.5 not only would I take the bet, but I wouldn't move the pointspread at all. Anyone who would is in the wrong business. If I then had a sharp player come in and take Pitt +7.5 for $3000 I would instantly move the game down to Pitt +7.
At this point I would be heavy on Miami money $800000 to $3000, but the points would've moved in Pitt's favor. The whole balancing the money thing is almost entirely a myth, in practice it is next to impossible to accomplish. Except on the major events, sportsbooks fear parlay/parlay card liability more than anything else. You can have a game with very little money wagered on straight bets, but lose $50,000 no matter who wins due to it being tied in to multiple parlays.
First of all, I'm not going to kill you. I never said it started at 9-1/2, but as you say there were places that did have it at 8-1/2, which then moved to 8, and then to 7-1/2. Some people see that opening number listed on a web site and assume that was a real spread that you could bet somewhere. I am not one of those people.
As far as the money on the game, there is a site that lists what they say is the betting split leading up to the game. That is the place that said the split was 60-40 in favor of Pitt (if you want to be technically correct, when I looked at it it actually said it was 61-39 on Pitt and the money line was 75-25 on Miami). I have no reason to doubt that number, but if someone thinks it may not be correct I guess I can understand that as well.
As far as the money on the game, there is a site that lists what they say is the betting split leading up to the game. That is the place that said the split was 60-40 in favor of Pitt (if you want to be technically correct, when I looked at it it actually said it was 61-39 on Pitt and the money line was 75-25 on Miami). I have no reason to doubt that number, but if someone thinks it may not be correct I guess I can understand that as well.
I was kidding about the kill thing, as I've seen you brutalize many posters here, strictly using facts of course.
Those sites are pretty much junk, I have no idea where they get their data, but when tickets are written at each casino that information doesn't go to some outside central database that updates total ticket count constantly leading up to the game. It simply doesn't exist, and the casinos would never permit it.
Not trying to sound arrogant, but I know these are the way the numbers are moved at the vast majority of books, because I was one of the people that was in charge of moving them in the mid to late 2000's. A few things have changed since then, mostly due to the advent of mobile apps and in running wagering, but the basic concept is the same. Casinos book to faces, and pretty much let the squares bet whatever they want.
My fiancées grandfather was a relatively well known bookie in the AK Valley, and I used to joke with him that the numbers he was using on Sunday morning were at least partially based on the moves I made Saturday night. Used to drive him nuts, but back then most locals parroted the Las Vegas line, and the place I worked for was definitely an originator at that time.
Despite the loss I thought the team played hard and was engaged in the game until the end.
They could have folded like a fat lady sitting in a cheap beach chair early in the second half!
We missed a few easy ones and let their BigMan have his way inside but again PITT was in the game to the end.
Fix a few things and play with the same intensity and focus and maybe we steal a couple.
I agree with Vinniep33 a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while but that's a risky plan.
They could have folded like a fat lady sitting in a cheap beach chair early in the second half!
We missed a few easy ones and let their BigMan have his way inside but again PITT was in the game to the end.
Fix a few things and play with the same intensity and focus and maybe we steal a couple.
I agree with Vinniep33 a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while but that's a risky plan.
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