When you think of classic Miami offenses, you think of big plays and great athletes. Though they're not at a championship level in that regard, that's the identity of this UM team, too.
What you'll see Saturday will probably resemble something like UNC's offense (or VT's 2020 offense) rather than Miami's offense from last season.
That means: Vertical throws to the sideline, spreading out the defense to set up the run, using screens and backs out of the backfield
The evolution of Miami's offense is pretty obvious under TVD (he's not really worthy of a nickname; maybe someday, but it's just easy to type). He's confident, has a big arm, and isn't afraid to give his skill players chances to make plays 1 on 1. That's a concern, yes, but it's also essentially what this Pitt defense is built for. Winning 1 on 1's on the outside and putting pressure on this QB will decide the game flow when Pitt's improving defense is on the field.
RB's in the passing game
One area that UM always has athleticism is at the RB position. You can count on one of their players being a 4.4 type back that had national offers. This season is no different. What they like to do is create mismatches in the passing game. This should be fresh on the minds of the Pitt defense seeing as how this play was a variation of the one that Shipley dropped last week. But last season, Miami spread the defense really wide (notice how wide the slot receivers align) and isolate the RB on the linebackers. I'm almost positive Pitt will see this play in some form Saturday.
They also ran a wheel route for a TD against NCSU last week. It's hard to defense and something Pitt will have to be aware of and counter.
Miami also likes to use the screen game to get their backs the ball in space.
And a classic Texas route from the RB:
Defending the backs out of the backfield will go a long way to holding Miami off the board.
Now to be sure, some of these plays will not be available because of the way Pitt plays defense. They crowd the LOS and attack RB's out of the backfield on the short throws. The more difficult assignment is on the longer developing plays like the wheel or the seam route from last season. Knighton in particular can really run and if TVD has too much time it could be trouble.
Vertical throws
TVD has shown himself to be confident (if not a little extra brash) and he plays that way. Against NCSU, particularly early, it seemed that Miami figured the Wolfpack wasn't planning on seeing a lot of deep throws early so that's exactly what Miami deep. They threw deep, often, and with decent success.
First possession of the game in 3rd & long and Miami let it rip:
You'll notice a pattern here, TVD is throwing to a spot and not really making more than 1 read. He's young so it's not surprising he's a 1-read guy still. But he has a great arm and can throw under pressure.
This is an example. He's under immediate pressure but he knows already there's really no read. Chuck it and let his guy make a play. The CB's will be test Saturday if the weather allows for deep passing. If the long ball isn't available to Miami, I think they'll really struggle. TVD isn't going to make progression-type throws. He's also not shown a whole lot of interest in the intermediate passing game yet. One read, get the ball out, and take shots. That's the formula Miami will want to follow. He takes off a lot if the first option isn't there. And his protection up front isn't very good either:
I don't expect the playaction passing game to be a huge problem this week mostly because the OL isn't that good and their TE is a poor blocker. It might end up looking a lot like the UCF game from '19 where UCF couldn't protect Gabriel and had to rely on taking no-read deep shots where the QB was getting rid of the ball before the rush could get there. If Mathis and Williams/Woods/Devonshire hold up on the outside, the defense might really be able to beat up TVD.
Miami scheming specifically for Pitt
There are some different plays I'd expect to see on Saturday. In addition to the RB down the seam from last season, Miami has had some success against Pitt using the classic inside zone and zone lead which be trouble if the Mike backer isn't playing well. Here, George struggled in his run fit and it was a relatively easy gain. Whichever players is in the MLB position needs to be disciplined in their run fits considering how explosive the Miami backs tend to be.
The relative success Miami had running the ball was used to set the table for playaction in the red zone. I think Miami is mostly likely to try to run the ball if it can and if they're in the red zone, a run action and dump off to the TE like this play is likely:
Bottom line:
I think Pitt's defense is better than Miami's offense but that doesn't mean they aren't dangerous. Miami won't be able to nickel and dime their way down the field unless they're running the football far more effectively than I'm anticipating. They need chunk plays. Pitt's corners will be tested, I think, especially early. If Miami hits some big plays, it will open up more of what they want to do with using the running backs in the passing game and establishing their inside zone. TVD isn't the runner that King is - but he's also not afraid to take off.
Take away the primary option (which means Mathis and co. need to play well) and dial in on the running backs in the passing game. If the deep shots aren't there, there are going to be great opportunities to pound this young quarterback. That's my formula for success.
Have a cold one and beat Miami.
What you'll see Saturday will probably resemble something like UNC's offense (or VT's 2020 offense) rather than Miami's offense from last season.
That means: Vertical throws to the sideline, spreading out the defense to set up the run, using screens and backs out of the backfield
The evolution of Miami's offense is pretty obvious under TVD (he's not really worthy of a nickname; maybe someday, but it's just easy to type). He's confident, has a big arm, and isn't afraid to give his skill players chances to make plays 1 on 1. That's a concern, yes, but it's also essentially what this Pitt defense is built for. Winning 1 on 1's on the outside and putting pressure on this QB will decide the game flow when Pitt's improving defense is on the field.
RB's in the passing game
One area that UM always has athleticism is at the RB position. You can count on one of their players being a 4.4 type back that had national offers. This season is no different. What they like to do is create mismatches in the passing game. This should be fresh on the minds of the Pitt defense seeing as how this play was a variation of the one that Shipley dropped last week. But last season, Miami spread the defense really wide (notice how wide the slot receivers align) and isolate the RB on the linebackers. I'm almost positive Pitt will see this play in some form Saturday.
They also ran a wheel route for a TD against NCSU last week. It's hard to defense and something Pitt will have to be aware of and counter.
Miami also likes to use the screen game to get their backs the ball in space.
And a classic Texas route from the RB:
Defending the backs out of the backfield will go a long way to holding Miami off the board.
Now to be sure, some of these plays will not be available because of the way Pitt plays defense. They crowd the LOS and attack RB's out of the backfield on the short throws. The more difficult assignment is on the longer developing plays like the wheel or the seam route from last season. Knighton in particular can really run and if TVD has too much time it could be trouble.
Vertical throws
TVD has shown himself to be confident (if not a little extra brash) and he plays that way. Against NCSU, particularly early, it seemed that Miami figured the Wolfpack wasn't planning on seeing a lot of deep throws early so that's exactly what Miami deep. They threw deep, often, and with decent success.
First possession of the game in 3rd & long and Miami let it rip:
You'll notice a pattern here, TVD is throwing to a spot and not really making more than 1 read. He's young so it's not surprising he's a 1-read guy still. But he has a great arm and can throw under pressure.
This is an example. He's under immediate pressure but he knows already there's really no read. Chuck it and let his guy make a play. The CB's will be test Saturday if the weather allows for deep passing. If the long ball isn't available to Miami, I think they'll really struggle. TVD isn't going to make progression-type throws. He's also not shown a whole lot of interest in the intermediate passing game yet. One read, get the ball out, and take shots. That's the formula Miami will want to follow. He takes off a lot if the first option isn't there. And his protection up front isn't very good either:
I don't expect the playaction passing game to be a huge problem this week mostly because the OL isn't that good and their TE is a poor blocker. It might end up looking a lot like the UCF game from '19 where UCF couldn't protect Gabriel and had to rely on taking no-read deep shots where the QB was getting rid of the ball before the rush could get there. If Mathis and Williams/Woods/Devonshire hold up on the outside, the defense might really be able to beat up TVD.
Miami scheming specifically for Pitt
There are some different plays I'd expect to see on Saturday. In addition to the RB down the seam from last season, Miami has had some success against Pitt using the classic inside zone and zone lead which be trouble if the Mike backer isn't playing well. Here, George struggled in his run fit and it was a relatively easy gain. Whichever players is in the MLB position needs to be disciplined in their run fits considering how explosive the Miami backs tend to be.
The relative success Miami had running the ball was used to set the table for playaction in the red zone. I think Miami is mostly likely to try to run the ball if it can and if they're in the red zone, a run action and dump off to the TE like this play is likely:
Bottom line:
I think Pitt's defense is better than Miami's offense but that doesn't mean they aren't dangerous. Miami won't be able to nickel and dime their way down the field unless they're running the football far more effectively than I'm anticipating. They need chunk plays. Pitt's corners will be tested, I think, especially early. If Miami hits some big plays, it will open up more of what they want to do with using the running backs in the passing game and establishing their inside zone. TVD isn't the runner that King is - but he's also not afraid to take off.
Take away the primary option (which means Mathis and co. need to play well) and dial in on the running backs in the passing game. If the deep shots aren't there, there are going to be great opportunities to pound this young quarterback. That's my formula for success.
Have a cold one and beat Miami.
