Minute Breakdown
- Thread starter Sean Miller Fan
- Start date
He strikes me as having similar skills to Nike Sibande. Sibande averaged 22.5 minutes.
IMO, I do think Austin was encouraged to take threes, but part of that is unless he gets an open lane, he isn't able to drive to score, whereas Dunn is a guy who can work his way to the basket to either attack the rim or pull up.
I’m not sure if Austin’s a guy they’re really going to want to ask to put the ball on the floor and attack the rim. As a cutter attacking the basket where he doesn’t dribble much, sure. If a defender gets up in the air on a perimeter pump fake? Sure. As a lob threat? Definitely. But I think Dunn’s skillset lends itself more to attacking the basket off the dribble, similar to how Burton’s skillset led to him attacking the basket off dribble. I don’t think Dunn and Austin feel like similar players at all, even if they might both rotate around at the same position.
I think Austin’s a really nice player, and developed nicely into being one of the better perimeter defenders in the conference. Big credit to him, and if the jumper comes together like the staff clearly thought it would, he’ll have a great year. Like an Elliott but more athletic and superior defensively. But I think you’re wildly underrating Dunn, who the staff has shown by their actions that they’ve valued very, very highly for two straight years now. Capel’s practically gushing about the kid during his interview with Chris Peak.
Yeah, Austin never struck me as a guy who is beating anyone worth his weight in salt defensively off the dribble. More like a take-two-dribbles-and-slam-it kind of guy. His offensive game just seems limited... which is probably why he shot so many threes.
I don't think (at least I hope they didn't) the coaches encouraged Austin to launch 3s last year. He takes a lot of 3s because opponents were more than OK with him taking an open 3 when the other choices are Hinson, Carrington or Lowe.
I think they definitely encouraged him to shoot it if the shot was open. His unique ability to shoot three’s at a high volume combined with the defense and athleticism is pretty much why they brought him in. He didn’t shoot it the way they clearly thought he would, which is why his role is a little more murky this year. He’s gotta be able to shoot at a good volume and percentage from the outside - that’s why he’s here.
Dunn averaged 15 in the American. Austin averaged 12 in a league a step above D2. Dunn is a much better player. Not knocking Austin but he is a P5 level reserve. Dunn is a P5 level starter.
Delalic will get at least 20 and probably as many as 25. He, Ish or Lowe will be the leading scorer.
Leggett probably plays a bit more and Kante probably won’t play PF. I am on board with the rest.
NEC or lower is crazy disrespect, its closer to the SEC from spots 6 and lower. Delalic is going to be a top 3-4 player of the team
I think they encouraged him the same as they did Hinson, who was much more of an in between game guy than three point shooter prior to coming to Pitt.
We won 22 games, finished in the top 5 of the ACC, and finished in the top 30 nationally in efficiency with him in the starting lineup. Just imagine what this team would have been if we had a real center like Blair instead of Fede who provided very little contribution.
Austin was not the problem this year on this years team. The major problem was Fede and the center position.
There are plenty of season highlights on youtube showing he was capable of beating guys off the dribble this year.
Cam Corhen as a true sophomore big man averaged 10 points per game in ACC Conference play on 67% shooting with an ORTG offensive power rating of 130 which is better than everybody on our entire team last year. Capel has already made the point that he is going to be used much differently here than at Florida State and that we are going to be feeding him the basketball much more so than any of our previous centers. And that makes sense because this guys finishing ability is automatic in the interior and he shoots the midrange game at 50%. Corhen also had the 2nd highest win shares of anybody on the entire FSU roster. And he did this only playing 21 minutes per game. Unless there is foul trouble, he should be playing 32 or more minutes per game between the 4 and 5 and I think its possible he could push that scoring ability to upwards of 13-15 points per game next year.
Im not going to guess what Delalic will give us, but we already have a very big 3 on this team with Lowe, Leggett, and Corhen. The rest of the guys just need to take quality shots and score at a high level to maximize our team efficiency on offense.
Our team offense next year is loaded.
Defense and rebounding will determine how high we can climb the national rankings.
I'll check the surveillance from the gym in the Carnegie Library of Homestead. I can probably find a few instances of my slow white ass beating someone off the dribble, too. But I wouldn't say I'm known for it.
That would exceed my highest expectations of him, so hope you're right. Would also make him a candidate for the NBA if he ends up as our leading scorer.
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I certainly hope that the plan for next year isn’t to jam up the paint with a bunch of post touches. It’s my hope that Corhen’s role in the offense is basically what Fede did here, maybe somewhere between Fede and Guillermo, but that Corhen’s a guy who actually finishes and cleans up those opportunities. But I hope that Corhen’s usage isn’t much more than Fede’s 11% usage in conference play last year, and certainly isn’t more than Guillermo’s 19%. What we don’t need is another John Hugley offense where the 5 man has a 30% usage rate. I just don’t think that a bunch of post touches and 2 point attempts are going to be the path to success - limited post touches, but converted at a higher rate feels like the ticket.
Lowe 30
Leggett 30
Dunn 25
Delalic 25
Corhen 25
Austin 20
Guillermo 20
Kante 15
Cummings 10
Leggett 30
Dunn 25
Delalic 25
Corhen 25
Austin 20
Guillermo 20
Kante 15
Cummings 10
Believe that absent injuries Cummings is getting more than 10 minutes per game by season end, but otherwise like the breakdown. Seems like a lot of people really liked Delalic's tape.
Why wouldn't we?
Corhen averaged 10 points per game in the ACC this year as a sophomore with a usage rate of 19 on 67% shooting playing in a league with a ton of quality bigs this year. Those numbers are awesome and look even better when you see he only played 21 minutes per game. The biggest problem of why he didn't have big time scoring numbers was he did not play enough playing time. He was also injured this year and missed 5 games on top of it.
The big takeaway here is that he does NOT turn the basketball over, its also why he is highly valuable. John Hugley was turning the basketball over 3.5 times per game in ACC Conference play when we tried to pound the ball into him. Corhen averaged less than 1 turnover per game this year. When he was a freshmen playing 23 minutes per game he only averaged 1 turnover per game. This guy has Elite ball protection for a big man. This is another problem I have with Dunn starting or playing heavy minutes or having a high usage, he gets into turnover problems.
Also, we have 2 years worth of data and Corhen makes midrange shots at a 50% level as an underclassmen which is big time. And he makes a lot of them. He made 35 of them this year coming off the bench and missing 5 games this year. He is a significant weapon in the midrange game, which is why he can absolutely get run as a 4 here.
He also does not take dumb shots, which I love about him and I hated about Hugley. He knows he is not capable of making 3s, so he does not shoot them. Its why his efficiency is Elite of the Elite.
The biggest gripe with him is the rebounding. But FSU was matching him up against centers, against forwards, against wings, and even against some guards. He was getting pulled away from the basket which is one of the reasons his rebound numbers are so low. If he is a full time 5 only guarding 5s, his rebounding should make a decent jump next year. Kante will determine how much if any run he gets at the 4.
This is a major get by Pitt and Jeff Capel. Major.
I just don’t see any way Cummings gets more MPG than Austin. I also agree with you on Kante..
If I had to guess -
PG Lowe 32 Cummings 8
SG Leggett 30 Dunn 10
SF Delailic 20 Dunn 12 Austin 8
PF Austin 15 GDG 15 Delailic 10
C Corhen 25 GDG 10 Kante 5
I’d be pretty suprised if that wasn’t our starting lineup, and if it isn’t, Delalic would be the guy to come off the bench. Austin is gonna start. He started last year, he provides a very, very necessary skill (defense) on a team loaded with scoring, and of all the returning guys, along with Guillermo, the most likely to make a “leap”.
It’s basically a very, very, very strong 7 man rotation and then Kante/Cummings get decent spot minutes, and then Jorge, Amaidaye, Barnes…maybe in a blowout, although Jorge could get some run.
I'm glad you mention this because when Corhen was signed the initial statements relegated Kante to a minor role vis-a-vis Corhen in terms to minutes . That didn't make sense to me because I remembered Capel's comment when Kante went down with the injury last year that it was a big setback (or words to that effect). So if losing Kante was a big setback getting him back would be huge.
I was able to get my hands on Delalic's advanced stats. And they are surprisingly good all across the board.
23 minutes per game
13.9 points per game
4.6 rebounds per game
2 assist per game
2 turnovers per game
44% FG
42% 3 point shooter
80% free throw shooter
And for the important stats
ORTG offensive power rating - 111
DRTG defensive power rating - 95
DR rebound rate- 19
win shares 2.8
defensive win shares- 1.7
eFG field goal percentage: 55%
usage rate- 29 far higher than I would have expected so the turnover numbers look a lot better with this
He shot 47% from the field and 37% from 3 with an ORTG of 112 and DRTG of 99 the prior year. He is turning 21 years old in July and he did play quite a bit at power forward.
A few things to unpack here. His defensive power rating is quite good and his DR rebound rate is far better than I was anticipating it was going to be. To put this into perspective, Blake Hinson had a DR defensive rating of 107 with a rebound rate of 12, both are below average for a power forward. If this guy comes anywhere close to matching the rebound numbers and the defensive rating while shooting anywhere close to 40% from 3, this is a home run and potential grand slam recruit.
Im not suggesting what stats this guy might put up next year. But I feel a lot better about other peoples bullishness after looking at this. I was sold on his shooting ability to be a potential wing starter, but this potentially takes it to a whole new level if his defense and rebounding is anywhere near this good. Whats also important about this, is that if his rebound numbers hold up in the ACC, we got a guy that could fill in at the power forward slot or at the wing and should be versatile enough to play either comfortably.
23 minutes per game
13.9 points per game
4.6 rebounds per game
2 assist per game
2 turnovers per game
44% FG
42% 3 point shooter
80% free throw shooter
And for the important stats
ORTG offensive power rating - 111
DRTG defensive power rating - 95
DR rebound rate- 19
win shares 2.8
defensive win shares- 1.7
eFG field goal percentage: 55%
usage rate- 29 far higher than I would have expected so the turnover numbers look a lot better with this
He shot 47% from the field and 37% from 3 with an ORTG of 112 and DRTG of 99 the prior year. He is turning 21 years old in July and he did play quite a bit at power forward.
A few things to unpack here. His defensive power rating is quite good and his DR rebound rate is far better than I was anticipating it was going to be. To put this into perspective, Blake Hinson had a DR defensive rating of 107 with a rebound rate of 12, both are below average for a power forward. If this guy comes anywhere close to matching the rebound numbers and the defensive rating while shooting anywhere close to 40% from 3, this is a home run and potential grand slam recruit.
Im not suggesting what stats this guy might put up next year. But I feel a lot better about other peoples bullishness after looking at this. I was sold on his shooting ability to be a potential wing starter, but this potentially takes it to a whole new level if his defense and rebounding is anywhere near this good. Whats also important about this, is that if his rebound numbers hold up in the ACC, we got a guy that could fill in at the power forward slot or at the wing and should be versatile enough to play either comfortably.
These efficency stats are valuable but not the end of every conversation. You also had Coulibaly as one of the most efficient bigs in the ACC several years ago. The eye test matters as well.
If - big if - they still think they have a legit shot to land Meleek - then I think Cummings will definitely get more than 10 minutes. I think he'll get 15-18 regardless.
120 minutes for 1 thru 3:
Lowe 30
Cummings 15
Leggett 28
Delalic 21
Dunn 21
This leaves 5 minutes to play with depending on who's playing well game to game.
Corhen won’t average more than 10-12. We just don’t use our bigs like that. Lowe, Ish and Delalic will probably average more.
They haven’t had a legit big since Corhen in many many years…Fede would have averaged 10-12 if he just converted easy stuff and made FTs.
If I was ranking players on Pitt's current roster based off where they are now, what their age is, and what their upside potential is in lets say the next 2 years, I would rank them like this in terms of who is likely to breakout big to the upside from where they are right now.
1a) Jaland Lowe- All American potential
1b) Cam Corhen- All ACC potential
3) Cummings- Major upside
significant gap
4) Kante-Significant upside
5) Guillermo-Decent upside
6) Austin- Some upside
gap
7) Jorge- could maybe be higher if he ever found his stroke
8) Leggett-close to maxed out as a college player
9) Dunn-maxed out as a college player
10) Barnes-could have upside or could easily bust
11) Ndiaye-could have upside or could easily bust
NR-Delalic
I am extremely high on Corhen. This guy put up 25 points and 8 rebounds against Fede, 14 points and 9 rebounds against Duke, 18 points and 10 rebounds against Florida, etc and had injury issues this year. If you have the potential to load up the stats as a sophomore 19 year old big man against teams like that, you have a lot of potential in the years to come.
His efficiency is really good. And not only did he average 10 points per game this year in the ACC, he just turned 20 years old this month, which means, he is extremely young for his class in college basketball.
This is a nice luxury too because it seems like we get hit with a Lucy every single season right before things tip off with losing someone unexpectedly. Let's hope everyone can stay out of trouble and injury free.
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