I decided to look at the last 4 years of recruiting based on Rivals rankings and included this year, which admittedly is not yet complete. So that is a 5 year sample covering everyone that should be on the roster plus who is coming down the pike. I have done this for all ACC teams and Big Ten teams. Why those two? Well duh, we are in the ACC, so it is our direct competition and our last and our current coaches come from the Big 10, and it is most geographically relevant with PSU, tOSU, Maryland and Michigan all being less than 300 miles from Pitt's campus. Also have decided to include WVU for obvious reasons.
So the recruiting classes are from 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and current (2018). What I have done is take the Rivals rankings (Team) and averaged them out, and also counted the number of 4-5 star kids as part of each class. While we know that is not the definitive metric, but the evidence for the success rate of 5 stars who go to the NFL and then 4 stars are just overwhelmingly higher than all other classes. So it is an indication of talent going through the program. So average of the class rank, understanding that in some schools case maybe a coaching transition plus small class (for example Michigan's 2015 class was rated 50th! and a true outlier which does skew their end result) the whole of this analysis I feel paints pretty accurate pictures for the most part. But you can see in some cases, the year a coaching change happens or a small class can arbitrarily cause a lower than usual ranked class. And again, I find the number of 4-5 stars indicative of any potential difference makers. For example, Ohio State had 79 of them during this time period, Syracuse.....1. Just one 4/5 star in 5 years.
Anyways Here is the breakdown:
ACC:
1) FSU. Class avg 4.5. 73 4/5 star recruits. Trend..Flat. (Which for FSU is good, they are a perennial top 5 class. A recruiting machine. Though I can't say they outperform their recruiting.
2) Clemson Class avg 14. 48 4/5 star recruits. Trend believe it or not, down. Clemson had two top 10 classes (6) and (4) in 2015-2016. Their FR class was only ranked 22, but it was a small. This year is is only 26, but so far a small class. Clemson is probably exceeding recruiting.
3) Miami Class avg 15 49 4/5 star recruits. Trend.. Way up. Last year's class was 11, this year's at this moment, 2. You have to say overall they have not produced relative to their recruiting.
4) Va Tech Class avg 29 26 4/5 star recruits. Trend up. Solid 25-30 classes had a down year when they switched coaches. Basically performs as they recruit.
5) UNC Class Avg 30. 18 4/5 stars. Trend flat. Again, pretty consistent classes. On field performance it could be argued is actually below what they recruit at.
6) L'ville Class Avg 31. 18 4/5 stars. Trend up. Getting better. Has outperformed recruiting for the most part.
7) NC State. Class Avg 39. 14 4/5 stars. Trend down. Was a 30-35 type program is now 45-50. Basically performs as recruits.
8) Pitt Class Avg 46 14 4/5 stars. Trend....flat. Probably most effected by coaching changes, has a low class of 65, high class of 28. Pitt is about the 7th or 8th best team in the ACC, so performs as it recruits.
9) Duke. Class Avg 47 9 4/5 Stars. Trend up. Was previously a 60+ program, now around the 40's and basically performs as recruits.
10) GT Class Avg 50. 8 4/5 stars. Trend flat. This program is weird, but their style is unique it skews how effective it recruits. Performs better than recruiting avg.
11) UVA Class Avg 51 6 4/5 star recruits. Trend...dropping. We will see the Mendenhall effect, but they recruited in the low 40's under London. Definitely has underperformed.
12T) BC Class Avg 56. 5 4/5 stars recruits. Trend, has dropped. 2016 class was ranked 83rd. Performs as it recruits.
12T) Cuse Class Avg 56 1 4/5 star. Trend. Flat. Most consistent. Will be between 50 and 60 with no 4-5 stars. Performs as it recruits.
13) Wake Class Avg 62. 2 4/5 star. Trend, dropping. Not good when you are last and your recruiting is not getting better. Performs as it recruits usually.
BIG TEN
1) tO$U. Class Avg 3.6 79 4/5 star recruits. Trend..same. Right now #1 class, always in top 10, usually top 5. Performs usually to their recruiting class as they are perennial CFB playoff participants
2) PSU. Class Avg 15 51 4/5 star recruits. Trend. Way Up! Currently #3 class. Another recruiting monster despite sanctions and coaching change. Performing as they recruit it seems
3) Michigan Class Avg 22. 55 4/5 star recruits. Trend up. Skewed badly by the transition year when hired Harbaugh and class finished 50th. 2015 and 2016 classes were ranked #4 each. Given their overall ranking, has to say performing as they recruit.
4) MSU. Class Avg 27. 42 4/5 star recruits. Trend down. For those who say "Michigan State" doesn't recruit well, they had 3 straight years around #20. They recruited well. But they also performed well on the field.
5) Nebraska Class Avg 32 25 4/5 star recruits. Trend flat. I guess you can say that they perform as they recruit, but this current class is low and likely there will be changes.
6) Wisconsin. Class Avg 34. 17 4/5 star recruits. Trend flat. No team is more consistent. Here are their rankings, 33, 37, 35, 35 and current class 31. Definitely perform much above their recruiting.
7) Maryland. Class Avg 35 25 4/5 stars. Trend way up. Surprised? Last year's class was ranked 17th, this class so far is ranked 14th. Fertile area. Under performed.
8) Minn. Class Avg 44. 3 4/5 stars. Trend real flat. Pitt West is what it is, isn't it?
9) Iowa Class Avg 52. 6 4/5 stars. Trend flat. Wisconsinlite. Consistent, never higher than 40th, but definitely well outperforms their recruiting.
10) Indiana Class Avg 52. 2 4/5 stars Trend down. They are who we thought they are.
11) Rutgers Class Avg 53. 4 4/5 stars Trend flat. No more choppin wood here.
12) NW Class Avg 54. 6 4/5 stars Trend very flat. They are who they are, smart kids overachieving and beating Pitt in bowl games.
13) Illinois Class Avg 59. 4 4/5 stars. Trend it doesn't matter. Bad is as bad does.
14) Purdue Class Avg 64. 2 4/5 stars Trend, livin' in the 60's like a Ken Burns documentary.
Bonus WVU Class Avg 40. 10 4/5 stars. Trend flat. WVU does what it does, transfers, JuCos and they always outperform their recruiting rankings.
There ya go. What is amazing is most schools on the whole, within their groups perform as expected, how they recruit. Miami has been a serious underachiever, Wisky a serious over achiever. I can tell you this, at least in my lifetime, Pitt has never been on the over achiever side. So Pitt needs to start recruiting better if we are going to expect better success and results.
So the recruiting classes are from 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and current (2018). What I have done is take the Rivals rankings (Team) and averaged them out, and also counted the number of 4-5 star kids as part of each class. While we know that is not the definitive metric, but the evidence for the success rate of 5 stars who go to the NFL and then 4 stars are just overwhelmingly higher than all other classes. So it is an indication of talent going through the program. So average of the class rank, understanding that in some schools case maybe a coaching transition plus small class (for example Michigan's 2015 class was rated 50th! and a true outlier which does skew their end result) the whole of this analysis I feel paints pretty accurate pictures for the most part. But you can see in some cases, the year a coaching change happens or a small class can arbitrarily cause a lower than usual ranked class. And again, I find the number of 4-5 stars indicative of any potential difference makers. For example, Ohio State had 79 of them during this time period, Syracuse.....1. Just one 4/5 star in 5 years.
Anyways Here is the breakdown:
ACC:
1) FSU. Class avg 4.5. 73 4/5 star recruits. Trend..Flat. (Which for FSU is good, they are a perennial top 5 class. A recruiting machine. Though I can't say they outperform their recruiting.
2) Clemson Class avg 14. 48 4/5 star recruits. Trend believe it or not, down. Clemson had two top 10 classes (6) and (4) in 2015-2016. Their FR class was only ranked 22, but it was a small. This year is is only 26, but so far a small class. Clemson is probably exceeding recruiting.
3) Miami Class avg 15 49 4/5 star recruits. Trend.. Way up. Last year's class was 11, this year's at this moment, 2. You have to say overall they have not produced relative to their recruiting.
4) Va Tech Class avg 29 26 4/5 star recruits. Trend up. Solid 25-30 classes had a down year when they switched coaches. Basically performs as they recruit.
5) UNC Class Avg 30. 18 4/5 stars. Trend flat. Again, pretty consistent classes. On field performance it could be argued is actually below what they recruit at.
6) L'ville Class Avg 31. 18 4/5 stars. Trend up. Getting better. Has outperformed recruiting for the most part.
7) NC State. Class Avg 39. 14 4/5 stars. Trend down. Was a 30-35 type program is now 45-50. Basically performs as recruits.
8) Pitt Class Avg 46 14 4/5 stars. Trend....flat. Probably most effected by coaching changes, has a low class of 65, high class of 28. Pitt is about the 7th or 8th best team in the ACC, so performs as it recruits.
9) Duke. Class Avg 47 9 4/5 Stars. Trend up. Was previously a 60+ program, now around the 40's and basically performs as recruits.
10) GT Class Avg 50. 8 4/5 stars. Trend flat. This program is weird, but their style is unique it skews how effective it recruits. Performs better than recruiting avg.
11) UVA Class Avg 51 6 4/5 star recruits. Trend...dropping. We will see the Mendenhall effect, but they recruited in the low 40's under London. Definitely has underperformed.
12T) BC Class Avg 56. 5 4/5 stars recruits. Trend, has dropped. 2016 class was ranked 83rd. Performs as it recruits.
12T) Cuse Class Avg 56 1 4/5 star. Trend. Flat. Most consistent. Will be between 50 and 60 with no 4-5 stars. Performs as it recruits.
13) Wake Class Avg 62. 2 4/5 star. Trend, dropping. Not good when you are last and your recruiting is not getting better. Performs as it recruits usually.
BIG TEN
1) tO$U. Class Avg 3.6 79 4/5 star recruits. Trend..same. Right now #1 class, always in top 10, usually top 5. Performs usually to their recruiting class as they are perennial CFB playoff participants
2) PSU. Class Avg 15 51 4/5 star recruits. Trend. Way Up! Currently #3 class. Another recruiting monster despite sanctions and coaching change. Performing as they recruit it seems
3) Michigan Class Avg 22. 55 4/5 star recruits. Trend up. Skewed badly by the transition year when hired Harbaugh and class finished 50th. 2015 and 2016 classes were ranked #4 each. Given their overall ranking, has to say performing as they recruit.
4) MSU. Class Avg 27. 42 4/5 star recruits. Trend down. For those who say "Michigan State" doesn't recruit well, they had 3 straight years around #20. They recruited well. But they also performed well on the field.
5) Nebraska Class Avg 32 25 4/5 star recruits. Trend flat. I guess you can say that they perform as they recruit, but this current class is low and likely there will be changes.
6) Wisconsin. Class Avg 34. 17 4/5 star recruits. Trend flat. No team is more consistent. Here are their rankings, 33, 37, 35, 35 and current class 31. Definitely perform much above their recruiting.
7) Maryland. Class Avg 35 25 4/5 stars. Trend way up. Surprised? Last year's class was ranked 17th, this class so far is ranked 14th. Fertile area. Under performed.
8) Minn. Class Avg 44. 3 4/5 stars. Trend real flat. Pitt West is what it is, isn't it?
9) Iowa Class Avg 52. 6 4/5 stars. Trend flat. Wisconsinlite. Consistent, never higher than 40th, but definitely well outperforms their recruiting.
10) Indiana Class Avg 52. 2 4/5 stars Trend down. They are who we thought they are.
11) Rutgers Class Avg 53. 4 4/5 stars Trend flat. No more choppin wood here.
12) NW Class Avg 54. 6 4/5 stars Trend very flat. They are who they are, smart kids overachieving and beating Pitt in bowl games.
13) Illinois Class Avg 59. 4 4/5 stars. Trend it doesn't matter. Bad is as bad does.
14) Purdue Class Avg 64. 2 4/5 stars Trend, livin' in the 60's like a Ken Burns documentary.
Bonus WVU Class Avg 40. 10 4/5 stars. Trend flat. WVU does what it does, transfers, JuCos and they always outperform their recruiting rankings.
There ya go. What is amazing is most schools on the whole, within their groups perform as expected, how they recruit. Miami has been a serious underachiever, Wisky a serious over achiever. I can tell you this, at least in my lifetime, Pitt has never been on the over achiever side. So Pitt needs to start recruiting better if we are going to expect better success and results.
