My dream scenario.... re: CFP

[UPitt '89]

This is my dream scenario:

Notre Dame wins two very easy games the next two weeks - but struggles in both - drops to #5 or #6 in the CFP because of it.

Clemson, OSU, and Alabama win out.... grabbing three of the playoff spots.

Notre Dame squeaks by Stanford, eliminating Stanford from discussion.

Utah wins out and blows out Stanford in the P12 championship game, putting the Utes at 12-1 and devaluing ND's win over Stanford.

Oklahoma wins out and takes the Big 12 title.


The final CFP rankings would look like this:

1. Clemson (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Ohio State (13-0)
4. Utah (12-1)
5. Notre Dame (11-1)
6. Oklahoma (11-1)

The committee strongly explains that the lack of a "Championship Game" is what kept ND and Oklahoma out and what put Utah in.

This is the impetus for the following to happen:

1. Notre Dame realizes they can't make the CFP as a one-loss team unless they are in a conference and have a championship game. This starts the wheels spinning for them to join the ACC full time (they're already 5/8 of the way there in scheduling).

2. The Big 12 bites the bullet and invites BYU and Cincinnati into their league and institutes a championship game.



A guy can dream....

 

[ratking17]

I agree. From what i can gather the conferences split 50 million revenue between their schools meaning each school gets approximately 3.4 million in the acc. ND gets 2.3 but only if they make it to the playoffs. So essentially as long as one acc team makes the playoffs or has a current contract with the orange, rose, or sugar bowls, each member school gets that 3.4 million. Now nd has to weigh what it's nbc deal is worth individually to them vs joining a conference.

I don't know if the money will make the difference or if being left out of the playoffs will make a difference, but I would love to see nd permanently in the acc

 

[zonairish]

utah is not that good. If they happen to beat stanford in the Pac 12 championship (if somehow now one else beats then during the season) they will not be a playoff team. in your scenario the choice Notre Dame or Oklahoma. Also Utah QB is average at best

 

[OriginalEther]

I'm fine with Notre Dame somehow being left out, but I despise the whole conference championship game argument.
It's rubbish.

I've said it before, the Big 12 shouldn't be punished for being the only conference that determines it's champion the correct way.

 

[UPitt '89]

utah is not that good. If they happen to beat stanford in the Pac 12 championship (if somehow now one else beats then during the season) they will not be a playoff team. in your scenario the choice Notre Dame or Oklahoma. Also Utah QB is average at best

Yes...... but just like last season, where everybody thought that a Big 12 team would be in ahead of Ohio State..... only to have the committee explicitly state that the lack of a Championship win is what held the Big 12 out.... I can see the committee sending a message that conference champs get preference over non-champs.

Any scenario in which ND is #5 and explicitly told by the committee that the lack of a conference championship is what kept them out is ok by me. That would be the push that ND needs to go from 5/8ths member of the ACC to 8/8ths.

 

[UPitt '89]

I'm fine with Notre Dame somehow being left out, but I despise the whole conference championship game argument.
It's rubbish.

I've said it before, the Big 12 shouldn't be punished for being the only conference that determines it's champion the correct way.

Except the Big 12 last year awarded *Co-Championships* to TCU and Baylor. So they did *NOT* determine a champion at all. The Big 12 made a point of saying it was a shared title.

 

[zonairish]

IMHO, The B12 is not a good conference overall. As some stated its the arena football conference no D. I do not think they are being punished and the selection has not been complete. These polls are on a week to week basis and can change completely next week. In the long run I think this should be a 8 team playoff where the power 5 champs get an auto birth and there are 3 at large. So that would pretty much guarantee no arguments other than in this years present scenarios who would be the other 2.

 

[OriginalEther]

Except the Big 12 last year awarded *Co-Championships* to TCU and Baylor. So they did *NOT* determine a champion at all. The Big 12 made a point of saying it was a shared title.

Well, ok in theory they do, until their Texas jackass of a commissioner tried to play both sides of the fence to try to get Baylor or TCU in.
They did have a true champion on paper: Baylor, who won the tiebreaker over TCU.

Point is, everybody plays each other there. It's not like the Big 10, for example, where the odds of winning the Western Division are greatly improved if you get to miss out on playing Ohio State and Michigan.

 

[UPitt '89]

Well, ok in theory they do, until their Texas jackass of a commissioner tried to play both sides of the fence to try to get Baylor or TCU in.
They did have a true champion on paper: Baylor, who won the tiebreaker over TCU.

Point is, everybody plays each other there. It's not like the Big 10, for example, where the odds of winning the Western Division are greatly improved if you get to miss out on playing Ohio State and Michigan.

They still have to beat the B1G East champion in the CCG.

Iowa still has to find a way to beat OSU/UM/MSU to get in. And if they do, it will be at the expense of OSU/UM/MSU..... so the B1G still only gets one team in.

 

[UPitt '89]

IMHO, The B12 is not a good conference overall. As some stated its the arena football conference no D. I do not think they are being punished and the selection has not been complete. These polls are on a week to week basis and can change completely next week. In the long run I think this should be a 8 team playoff where the power 5 champs get an auto birth and there are 3 at large. So that would pretty much guarantee no arguments other than in this years present scenarios who would be the other 2.

And in that scenario, ND only has one chance to get in... as an at-large. They would likely have to have fewer than 2 losses to do that.

Whereas.... if they join the ACC fully, they could conceivable make it into the playoff with 2 or 3 losses - as long as they won the ACCCG. Thus giving them two ways to get into the CFP.... conf champ OR at large.

Thus giving them incentive to join the ACC fully.

 

[pittzap]

Well, ok in theory they do, until their Texas jackass of a commissioner tried to play both sides of the fence to try to get Baylor or TCU in.
They did have a true champion on paper: Baylor, who won the tiebreaker over TCU.

Point is, everybody plays each other there. It's not like the Big 10, for example, where the odds of winning the Western Division are greatly improved if you get to miss out on playing Ohio State and Michigan.

But that's why the other conferences have championship games. So it is NOT decided on paper. True, the B12 all plays each other, but it is possible to not have a true champion, so you need to start going to tie breaker stuff.

I like championship games because you have to win the game on the field to win the championship. So if a team from a weaker division plays in the game, they have to beat a good team from the other division, even if that team has a loss or two because they are in a tougher side.

 

[zonairish]

And in that scenario, ND only has one chance to get in... as an at-large. They would likely have to have fewer than 2 losses to do that.

Whereas.... if they join the ACC fully, they could conceivable make it into the playoff with 2 or 3 losses - as long as they won the ACCCG. Thus giving them two ways to get into the CFP.... conf champ OR at large.

Thus giving them incentive to join the ACC fully.

The Notre Dame Admin will never join a football conference unless they are forced to. They have a legit shot to be part of the current playoffs every year . That said joining ACC or any conference benefits the conference not Notre Dame. So its not going to happen anytime soon being part of the playoff scenario or not, A little history of the playoff's the committee that helped start this whole playoff thing started with the power 5 teams and Notre Dame. So they were not going exclude a non conference team like Notre Dame. obviously Notre Dame has a lot of influence in how this was set up also from a historically point of view Notre dame does not want to join a conference also there is a financial reason , IMHO, The Irish will not join a conference anytime soon

 

[UPitt '89]

The Notre Dame Admin will never join a football conference unless they are forced to.

The pressure would be enormous on ND if they finish #5 this year and the committee explicitly states that the lack of a conference championship game win was a big part of the reason.

That scenario comes close to the "unless they are forced to" reasoning.

 

[OriginalEther]

They still have to beat the B1G East champion in the CCG.

Iowa still has to find a way to beat OSU/UM/MSU to get in. And if they do, it will be at the expense of OSU/UM/MSU..... so the B1G still only gets one team in.

Yeah, but it's only beating one of them in a one game setting. We all know anything can happen there.
Put it this way, which path is easier: beating Ohio State once, or coming out the winner in a round robin that involves Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma?

The new playoff, BTW, actually has the same effect. It will be easier for smaller school to get in the playoff, but harder to actually win in, since they have to beat more teams.

 

[pittdan77]

I honestly don't know that ND "squeaking" by puts them in such a bad spot. Their strength of schedule will be impressive and much better than anyone else at the top, probably even Alabama.

ND knows the writing is on the wall. I can't imagine that they're seeing the benefit of staying out of the ACC that they might have a few years ago. Otherwise, they don't partner and commit to so many guaranteed games. Two things we know about ND, one, they want to stay with Navy and two, they want the national recruiting reach. Both are looking less and less viable so I think they'll find ways to make the best of it. The ACC keeps them firmly in the East and South. If they can bring some sort of Texas exposure, that might be the ticket. Not UT necessarily but something in that neighborhood that would be a good fit for the ACC.

 

[OriginalEther]

But that's why the other conferences have championship games. So it is NOT decided on paper. True, the B12 all plays each other, but it is possible to not have a true champion, so you need to start going to tie breaker stuff.

I like championship games because you have to win the game on the field to win the championship. So if a team from a weaker division plays in the game, they have to beat a good team from the other division, even if that team has a loss or two because they are in a tougher side.

A tie breaker does determine a true champion, at least when it's something concrete like a head to head matchup. Not exactly rocket science there.
Are you telling me that if the Steelers and Bengals somehow finish tied, the AFC North won't have a true champion because the NFL has tiebreakers to determine a division/conference winner?

 

[zonairish]

The pressure would be enormous on ND if they finish #5 this year and the committee explicitly states that the lack of a conference championship game win was a big part of the reason.

That scenario comes close to the "unless they are forced to" reasoning.

If they do not get in they do not get in. This year the only way the Irish do not get in is if they do not win out or if there are 2 undefeated conference teams

 

[UPitt '89]

If they do not get in they do not get in. This year the only way the Irish do not get in is if they do not win out or if there are 2 undefeated conference teams

Well.. I did say it was my *dream scenario*.

I didn't say it was likely. ;-)

I want the Irish to finish 11-1 and be 5th in the committee's final ranking. I think the pressure for ND to go the extra 3/8ths to become a full ACC member would then be enormous. It's my dream scenario, like I said.

 

[Pittparade]

upitt '89,

Why is this "dream scenario" so important to you?

How does this help PITT, if at all?

 

[pitt-girl]

I'm fine with Notre Dame somehow being left out, but I despise the whole conference championship game argument.
It's rubbish.

I've said it before, the Big 12 shouldn't be punished for being the only conference that determines it's champion the correct way.

Just curious why you think having conference championships is not the correct way to determine who's the best. Do you disagree with the whole premise of the NCAA Tournament in basketball for determining national champion?

 

[UPitt '89]

upitt '89,

Why is this "dream scenario" so important to you?

How does this help PITT, if at all?

Because ND in the conference full time likely does the following:

1. ND would be in the Coastal probably, they wouldn't be put in the same division as Clemson and FSU in order to balance the league competitively. That means a YEARLY engagement with Pitt guaranteed.

2. ND in the ACC full time eliminates any worry about whether the ACC will EVER get raided again.

 

[pitt-girl]

The Notre Dame Admin will never join a football conference unless they are forced to. They have a legit shot to be part of the current playoffs every year . That said joining ACC or any conference benefits the conference not Notre Dame. So its not going to happen anytime soon being part of the playoff scenario or not, A little history of the playoff's the committee that helped start this whole playoff thing started with the power 5 teams and Notre Dame. So they were not going exclude a non conference team like Notre Dame. obviously Notre Dame has a lot of influence in how this was set up also from a historically point of view Notre dame does not want to join a conference also there is a financial reason , IMHO, The Irish will not join a conference anytime soon

No disrespect but this is precisely why I'm hoping ND is on the outside looking in. They want to play the game on their own? Fine. But until you pony up with a conference, any conference, then ND SHOULD be held to a higher standard.

 

[zonairish]

it won't happen anytime in the near future.

 

[UPitt '89]

it won't happen anytime in the near future.

We shall see. The Irish agreeing to 5 or 6 ACC games every year is a *BIG* first step. I think their administration sees the writing on the wall.... and is preparing their fanbase for the eventuality....

They know it's coming.

 

[Seneca_Valley]

We shall see. The Irish agreeing to 5 or 6 ACC games every year is a *BIG* first step. I think their administration sees the writing on the wall.... and is preparing their fanbase for the eventuality....

They know it's coming.

What you think and reality are two different things. You grossly underestimate how much their fan base loves independent status. Join a conference and they become just another good program.

ND currently has the best of all worlds. They have their own (successful) network for God's sake. They also found a lapdog conference to house the rest of their athletic programs. Why would a playoff snub push them out of a dream situation?

It is only a matter of time that playoff bids increase to 8 and means ND will always under consideration even with two losses. That is realistic "handwriting on the wall". Until they lose their network they would be fools to do anything but stand pat.

 

[UPitt '89]

You grossly underestimate how much their fan base loves independent status.

You grossly underestimate how up-in-arms said fanbase (and administration!) will be if they finish #5 and the committee explicitly says it is because they didn't compete and win in a CCG.

 

[pittzap]

A tie breaker does determine a true champion, at least when it's something concrete like a head to head matchup. Not exactly rocket science there.
Are you telling me that if the Steelers and Bengals somehow finish tied, the AFC North won't have a true champion because the NFL has tiebreakers to determine a division/conference winner?

Are you saying that you would rather have a tie breaker vs. a championship game?

 

[Seneca_Valley]

You grossly underestimate how up-in-arms said fanbase (and administration!) will be if they finish #5 and the committee explicitly says it is because they didn't compete and win in a CCG.

They will be just as pissed as the other two or thee teams that gets snubbed. But not enough to push them into a conference. Are you serious?

 

[UPitt '89]

They will be just as pissed as the other two or thee teams that gets snubbed. But not enough to push them into a conference. Are you serious?

They're already 5/8ths of the way there.... (6/8ths this season).

It's not much of a stretch. Especially if they're allowed to keep their deal with NBC. Which the ACC would gladly agree to.

 

[pitt-girl]

They will be just as pissed as the other two or thee teams that gets snubbed. But not enough to push them into a conference. Are you serious?

Not this year certainly, but if the CFP committee sends a clear message over a period of years, their fanbase will clamor for a change. And honestly, I think they will. Football is EVERYTHING in South Bend.

 

[HailtoPitt]

1. ND will just push for an 8 team playoff.

2. No way in hell college football allows a one loss Utah team to get in over a one loss ND team. Not gonna happen.

 

[OriginalEther]

Just curious why you think having conference championships is not the correct way to determine who's the best. Do you disagree with the whole premise of the NCAA Tournament in basketball for determining national champion?

That's apples and oranges.

The NCAA tournament determines the champ of among 320 teams. Obviously, they can't all play each other. And I get the desire to have some sort of extended playoff.
I think the results where everyone plays each other (currently the Big 12, also think the Big East when we were in it) is a far more accurate way of determining a conference champion, as compared to this other method where teams play unbalanced schedules and two of them meet in a crapshoot game.

A conference championship game exists only as a money grab, and has become a necessity for most conferences because they are too big.
And remember, those of you who bemoan geographically illogical conferences and the loss of traditional rivals throughout college football (not just Pitt), this whole mess started back in 2003 when the ACC, in a greedy desire to get one of these stupid games, raided the Big East.

I just really have a problem with the belief that not playing in one of these games can be held against a team/conference. It's stupid.

 

[Dr. von Yinzer]

This is my dream scenario:

Notre Dame wins two very easy games the next two weeks - but struggles in both - drops to #5 or #6 in the CFP because of it.

Clemson, OSU, and Alabama win out.... grabbing three of the playoff spots.

Notre Dame squeaks by Stanford, eliminating Stanford from discussion.

Utah wins out and blows out Stanford in the P12 championship game, putting the Utes at 12-1 and devaluing ND's win over Stanford.

Oklahoma wins out and takes the Big 12 title.


The final CFP rankings would look like this:

1. Clemson (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Ohio State (13-0)
4. Utah (12-1)
5. Notre Dame (11-1)
6. Oklahoma (11-1)

The committee strongly explains that the lack of a "Championship Game" is what kept ND and Oklahoma out and what put Utah in.

This is the impetus for the following to happen:

1. Notre Dame realizes they can't make the CFP as a one-loss team unless they are in a conference and have a championship game. This starts the wheels spinning for them to join the ACC full time (they're already 5/8 of the way there in scheduling).

2. The Big 12 bites the bullet and invites BYU and Cincinnati into their league and institutes a championship game.



A guy can dream....

That's all perfectly reasonable. I'm not sure it would be enough to force ND into the ACC - in fact I'm sure it would not do that - but it certainly could start an internal discussion to that effect.

 

[pitt-girl]

That's apples and oranges.

The NCAA tournament determines the champ of among 320 teams. Obviously, they can't all play each other. And I get the desire to have some sort of extended playoff.
I think the results where everyone plays each other (currently the Big 12, also think the Big East when we were in it) is a far more accurate way of determining a conference champion, as compared to this other method where teams play unbalanced schedules and two of them meet in a crapshoot game.

A conference championship game exists only as a money grab, and has become a necessity for most conferences because they are too big.
And remember, those of you who bemoan geographically illogical conferences and the loss of traditional rivals throughout college football (not just Pitt), this whole mess started back in 2003 when the ACC, in a greedy desire to get one of these stupid games, raided the Big East.

I just really have a problem with the belief that not playing in one of these games can be held against a team/conference. It's stupid.

Well, no solution is perfect, but as someone else pointed out, conference championships do away with tie breakers. For that alone, they're worth it IMHO.

I don't think the Big Dance is exactly apples and oranges when compared to the current CFP and conference championship system. In size, absolutely. And obviously the CFP must be made bigger. But what it does is force two teams to play each other and the winner advances. In some cases, it might not be "fair", but it's a one game/win all format.

 

[UPitt '89]

1. ND will just push for an 8 team playoff.

2. No way in hell college football allows a one loss Utah team to get in over a one loss ND team. Not gonna happen.

1. An 8-team playoff only leaves Independent Notre Dame one path to the playoffs... an at-large bid. P5 conference teams will have two paths... conference title *OR* at-large bid. This is the primary reason ND stopped being an independent in basketball.... the inability to attain an auto-bid.

2. The Utah scenario was one scenario. There are many scenarios in which Notre Dame is the 5th team in the committees rankings. An undefeated Baylor or OKSt. An Oklahoma that runs the table and has an identical 11-1 record to Notre Dame, but with wins over Baylor, TCU, and OKSt.

 

[Seneca_Valley]

1. An 8-team playoff only leaves Independent Notre Dame one path to the playoffs... an at-large bid. P5 conference teams will have two paths... conference title *OR* at-large bid. This is the primary reason ND stopped being an independent in basketball.... the inability to attain an auto-bid.

2. The Utah scenario was one scenario. There are many scenarios in which Notre Dame is the 5th team in the committees rankings. An undefeated Baylor or OKSt. An Oklahoma that runs the table and has an identical 11-1 record to Notre Dame, but with wins over Baylor, TCU, and OKSt.

With an 8 team format, An undefeated or 1 loss ND team will certainly get in and seriously be considered with 2 losses. Under those assumptions, why would ND be so incensed to move it to a conference. Again, they get their cake and eat it too.

 

[OriginalEther]

Well, no solution is perfect, but as someone else pointed out, conference championships do away with tie breakers. For that alone, they're worth it IMHO.

I don't think the Big Dance is exactly apples and oranges when compared to the current CFP and conference championship system. In size, absolutely. And obviously the CFP must be made bigger. But what it does is force two teams to play each other and the winner advances. In some cases, it might not be "fair", but it's a one game/win all format.

So, if Michigan State and Michigan both win out and finish 7-1 apiece in the conference, will there be a Big 10 East Divisional Championship game to break the tie?
I don't see the issue at all with head to head tiebreakers.

As for the Big Dance and Conference Championship Game, one [Big Dance] is pretty much necessary. The other isn't, and a conference shouldn't be forced to raid another conference and break up traditions and have to stage an inferior method of determining a champion so that they won't be punished come selection time.

 

[pitt-girl]

So, if Michigan State and Michigan both win out and finish 7-1 apiece in the conference, will there be a Big 10 East Divisional Championship game to break the tie?
I don't see the issue at all with head to head tiebreakers.

As for the Big Dance and Conference Championship Game, one [Big Dance] is pretty much necessary. The other isn't, and a conference shouldn't be forced to raid another conference and break up traditions and have to stage an inferior method of determining a champion so that they won't be punished come selection time.

Not sure why you think the Big Dance is "necessary". I mean it very well could just follow the way football does things right now. OOC, regular season, conference tournament and then a staged NC game based on regular season results. Obviously March Madness is preferable and arguably the best sporting event all year, but how is it necessary in hoops but not football? I guess I'm not following why you think conference championships aren't legitimate.

 

[OriginalEther]

Not sure why you think the Big Dance is "necessary". I mean it very well could just follow the way football does things right now. OOC, regular season, conference tournament and then a staged NC game based on regular season results. Obviously March Madness is preferable and arguably the best sporting event all year, but how is it necessary in hoops but not football? I guess I'm not following why you think conference championships aren't legitimate.

Well, in hoops there are about 320 teams. Obviously, they all can't play each other, even if you cut out all the mid majors.
I mean, I suppose it could be done BCS style, but the nature of college hoops would make accurately and fairly determining #1 and #2 virtually impossible.

 

[UPitt '89]

With an 8 team format, An undefeated or 1 loss ND team will certainly get in and seriously be considered with 2 losses. Under those assumptions, why would ND be so incensed to move it to a conference. Again, they get their cake and eat it too.

Because in a conference, they could conceivably make the playoff with 3 or 4 losses... as long as they won the Coastal Division and then the ACC championship.

Without being in a conference, their only path to the playoff is with a 0- or 1-loss season.