I was reading a little bit about S&P+ (which works as a decent measure of a team's efficiency by tracking their "Success Rate" (did they get the amount of yardage they needed on a given down to be in a good "down and distance" for the following play) and "Explosiveness" (by how much did they exceed the amount of yardage needed for a successful play).
To determine something a "successful" play, a team needed:
50% of the yardage needed on 1st down. (Ex: 5 yards on 1st & 10 or 2.5 yards on 1st & 5)
70% of the yardage needed on 2nd down (Ex: 7 yards on a 2nd & 10 or 6 yards on 2nd & 8)
100% of yardage needed on 3rd down (Get a first down)
100% of yardage needed on 4th down (Get a first down)
To determine "explosiveness", I just divided the total yards actually gained by the amount of yards the team would have needed to gain for it to be a successful play.
Example: If it's 1st and 10, then a team needs 5 yards for a "successful" play. So if they gained 20 yards, I divided 20 by 5 = 4.0 for an individual play quotient. This also allowed me to not punish a team too much for gaining 15 yards on a 3rd and 19 as it would have given them a play quotient score of "0.78". It means they got close, but not close enough.
The last step was multiplying the % of successful plays by the "explosiveness" per play to come up with an overall number representing TOTAL OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCE. Because if a team is really explosive AND converts a high percentage of successful plays, they should be rewarded more than a team that was a little bit more explosive but wasn't successful on nearly as many plays overall. A score of 1.0 is probably the offensive score you'd want to see. If I had to guess, my charting will probably say over the course of the whole season that 0.85 or so would be the NCAA-wide average. It would mean a 2.0 score on explosiveness and a 50% success rate.
Basically, my score would reward a team for the following sequence:
5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5
And this team would be scored lower overall
50,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
A couple of shortcomings. I don't yet account for special teams yardage. I don't yet account for field position. I also don't account for penalties because they could have absolutely nothing to do with execution by either team.
I charted the Pitt - Albany and Penn St. - App St. games. Here are some findings...and if this sounds like gibberish to you, I need to go back and explain it more clearly or work on my methodology.
Pitt - Albany
I decided to chart all of Pitt's defensive plays and only the first half of Pitt's offensive plays.
Sue me. Pitt was trying to end the game.
Offensively, Pitt was successful on 75% of their plays offensively in the first half - which is excellent. The average D1 team had a success rate of 41% if I remember correctly. Beyond that, they also managed, over time, to pick up a good bit of yardage more than they needed for a successful play. Pitt's "explosiveness" score was also 2.3 which means they gained 2.3 times as much yardage as they needed for a play to be deemed successful. For context, if Pitt was in a 1st and 10 they needed 5 yards, they picked up 11.5 yards on average. If it was 3rd and 3, they would have needed 3 yards and picked up about 7.
It's a bit complicated but the Pitt offense was .75 on their success rate * 2.3 on their "explosiveness" score for a total offense quotient of 1.75. They converted at a high rate and were more explosive than you'd guess because those successful plays tended to pick up a fair chunk of yardage more than they needed.
- - - - -
On the defensive side for Pitt, Albany's offense was successful on 35% of its plays. The differences between the halves but pretty extreme. They were successful on 46% of their plays in the first half and 26% in the second half. So the Pitt defense performed waaaaayyyy better after halftime.
The first half is something you can live with if you're not giving up big plays...but Pitt gave up too many of those...as we all know. Albany had an explosiveness score of 1.5 in the first half, meaning they usually picked up a couple more yards than they needed, on average, to stay ahead of the sticks. Anyone watching probably realizes this was almost entirely due to 3 big plays, the deep pass on Briggs, the screen pass to the RB, and the deep pass to the slot on Hamlin. Still, the total offensive quotient came out to 0.7 in the first half because their success rate was low and they were hurt by an extreme negative explosive play because of the Hamlin pick and return yardage.
The second half also only saw Albany with an explosiveness score of just .45 which means they generally picked up half the yardage they needed to stay in a decent down and distance. Again this was including the big completion over Garner deep and a 20 yard completion on 3rd and 18.
Albany didn't pick up near enough yardage and they were very rarely successful.
Penn St - App St.
This might come as a surprise, it might not. But App St. outperformed Penn St. on the average play.
Penn St. had an explosiveness score of 1.8 and a success rate of 45%. Their explosiveness score was fairly good and their success rate was a bit better than the NCAA average. Remember when I said that I expected an average score to be around .85? Penn St ended up at .835 which matched what I saw...very average overall given how many plays they ran.
App St. actually outperformed Penn St. although it wasn't by a drastic amount.
They had an explosiveness score of 1.95 and a success rate of about 48%, exceeding Penn St. in both areas by my measure. This gave them a total offensive output score of about .95 which is a good bit better than Penn St. They also had a successful kickoff return TD.
So how did Penn St. win? Pretty simply...2 big kick returns by Penn St. and, just as importantly, penalties crushed App St. multiple times to a very great benefit for Penn St.
Penn St.'s first scoring drive featured 2 seperate 15 yard penalties on App St.- with one of those occurring after a 3rd and 1 stuff.
App St.'s first drive after halftime featured a (deserved) intentional grounding penalty, punt, and ensuing Penn St. touchdown
Penn St.'s 2nd scoring drive of the 2nd half featured another dead ball 15 yard penalty on App St. after a 2 yard gain.
App St. scored to make it 17-24 even after they were called for a 15 yard penalty and faced a 3rd and 17.
I'm not saying Penn St. didn't deserve the benefit of these penalties, but these kick returns and the App St. penalty difficulties accounted for how Penn St. made up for App. St outperforming them on the average play.
- - - - - -
I might have a prediction post but I thought it was interesting. Pitt really took care of Albany even when you factor in the big plays for Albany. App St. really outperformed Penn St. but were done in with costly penalties and Penn St.'s timely special teams success.
To determine something a "successful" play, a team needed:
50% of the yardage needed on 1st down. (Ex: 5 yards on 1st & 10 or 2.5 yards on 1st & 5)
70% of the yardage needed on 2nd down (Ex: 7 yards on a 2nd & 10 or 6 yards on 2nd & 8)
100% of yardage needed on 3rd down (Get a first down)
100% of yardage needed on 4th down (Get a first down)
To determine "explosiveness", I just divided the total yards actually gained by the amount of yards the team would have needed to gain for it to be a successful play.
Example: If it's 1st and 10, then a team needs 5 yards for a "successful" play. So if they gained 20 yards, I divided 20 by 5 = 4.0 for an individual play quotient. This also allowed me to not punish a team too much for gaining 15 yards on a 3rd and 19 as it would have given them a play quotient score of "0.78". It means they got close, but not close enough.
The last step was multiplying the % of successful plays by the "explosiveness" per play to come up with an overall number representing TOTAL OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCE. Because if a team is really explosive AND converts a high percentage of successful plays, they should be rewarded more than a team that was a little bit more explosive but wasn't successful on nearly as many plays overall. A score of 1.0 is probably the offensive score you'd want to see. If I had to guess, my charting will probably say over the course of the whole season that 0.85 or so would be the NCAA-wide average. It would mean a 2.0 score on explosiveness and a 50% success rate.
Basically, my score would reward a team for the following sequence:
5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5
And this team would be scored lower overall
50,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
A couple of shortcomings. I don't yet account for special teams yardage. I don't yet account for field position. I also don't account for penalties because they could have absolutely nothing to do with execution by either team.
I charted the Pitt - Albany and Penn St. - App St. games. Here are some findings...and if this sounds like gibberish to you, I need to go back and explain it more clearly or work on my methodology.
Pitt - Albany
I decided to chart all of Pitt's defensive plays and only the first half of Pitt's offensive plays.
Sue me. Pitt was trying to end the game.
Offensively, Pitt was successful on 75% of their plays offensively in the first half - which is excellent. The average D1 team had a success rate of 41% if I remember correctly. Beyond that, they also managed, over time, to pick up a good bit of yardage more than they needed for a successful play. Pitt's "explosiveness" score was also 2.3 which means they gained 2.3 times as much yardage as they needed for a play to be deemed successful. For context, if Pitt was in a 1st and 10 they needed 5 yards, they picked up 11.5 yards on average. If it was 3rd and 3, they would have needed 3 yards and picked up about 7.
It's a bit complicated but the Pitt offense was .75 on their success rate * 2.3 on their "explosiveness" score for a total offense quotient of 1.75. They converted at a high rate and were more explosive than you'd guess because those successful plays tended to pick up a fair chunk of yardage more than they needed.
- - - - -
On the defensive side for Pitt, Albany's offense was successful on 35% of its plays. The differences between the halves but pretty extreme. They were successful on 46% of their plays in the first half and 26% in the second half. So the Pitt defense performed waaaaayyyy better after halftime.
The first half is something you can live with if you're not giving up big plays...but Pitt gave up too many of those...as we all know. Albany had an explosiveness score of 1.5 in the first half, meaning they usually picked up a couple more yards than they needed, on average, to stay ahead of the sticks. Anyone watching probably realizes this was almost entirely due to 3 big plays, the deep pass on Briggs, the screen pass to the RB, and the deep pass to the slot on Hamlin. Still, the total offensive quotient came out to 0.7 in the first half because their success rate was low and they were hurt by an extreme negative explosive play because of the Hamlin pick and return yardage.
The second half also only saw Albany with an explosiveness score of just .45 which means they generally picked up half the yardage they needed to stay in a decent down and distance. Again this was including the big completion over Garner deep and a 20 yard completion on 3rd and 18.
Albany didn't pick up near enough yardage and they were very rarely successful.
Penn St - App St.
This might come as a surprise, it might not. But App St. outperformed Penn St. on the average play.
Penn St. had an explosiveness score of 1.8 and a success rate of 45%. Their explosiveness score was fairly good and their success rate was a bit better than the NCAA average. Remember when I said that I expected an average score to be around .85? Penn St ended up at .835 which matched what I saw...very average overall given how many plays they ran.
App St. actually outperformed Penn St. although it wasn't by a drastic amount.
They had an explosiveness score of 1.95 and a success rate of about 48%, exceeding Penn St. in both areas by my measure. This gave them a total offensive output score of about .95 which is a good bit better than Penn St. They also had a successful kickoff return TD.
So how did Penn St. win? Pretty simply...2 big kick returns by Penn St. and, just as importantly, penalties crushed App St. multiple times to a very great benefit for Penn St.
Penn St.'s first scoring drive featured 2 seperate 15 yard penalties on App St.- with one of those occurring after a 3rd and 1 stuff.
App St.'s first drive after halftime featured a (deserved) intentional grounding penalty, punt, and ensuing Penn St. touchdown
Penn St.'s 2nd scoring drive of the 2nd half featured another dead ball 15 yard penalty on App St. after a 2 yard gain.
App St. scored to make it 17-24 even after they were called for a 15 yard penalty and faced a 3rd and 17.
I'm not saying Penn St. didn't deserve the benefit of these penalties, but these kick returns and the App St. penalty difficulties accounted for how Penn St. made up for App. St outperforming them on the average play.
- - - - - -
I might have a prediction post but I thought it was interesting. Pitt really took care of Albany even when you factor in the big plays for Albany. App St. really outperformed Penn St. but were done in with costly penalties and Penn St.'s timely special teams success.
