New ESPN mock draft
- Thread starter BballinsiderfromPitt
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Capel better recruit as though he is moving on.
Who's a comp for him though? Lamar Stevens? I think Champagnie is better but Stevens is on a 2 way.
Him going pro would be a setback for the program as there doesn't appear to be a lot of talent in the pipeline (on roster or recruits), but he'd be crazy not to take his chance to become a professional. Only way he comes backs is if he is projected 2nd round and thinks with another year he work into the back of Round 1, and get a guaranteed contract.
He'd have to be projected as a late 2nd Rounder. Even if he's projected as early to mid 2nd Round, he's gone because he and agents will think he'll go 1st. And an early 2nd Round pick still means 7 figures.
A good coach who can recruit would use this to his advantage on the recruiting trail.
Just a few short yrs ago Blair and Young were both sure fire first rounders !
I still think he’s not ready , but saying that if he or anyone else can get guaranteed money adios college ball !
And Blair still made the right decision going pro. As will Champ.
He will but they will still go to Miami, NC St, Illinois, SHU, or some other juggernaut program we lose players to.
Of course a a two year, minimum salary, guaranteed, would pretty much be all it takes if a player would be prudent.
I am confused isn't he the same coach that recruited Champagnie?
Well.
Last place
Last place
Headed for bottom of league in 3rd year.
need to recruit talent EVERY YEAR.!!!
We are the only program with ZERO COMMITS.. ZERO.. 95% of the Top 150 is committed..
And we have gotten at least one reclassification each year he has been our coach. No reason to think that won't happen again this year, along with a slew of transfers who is to say we aren't positioned for that to happen again.
Blair made 100% the right decisions . Two surgically repaired knees , his decision was a no brainer .
JC we will see !
He’s had two knee injuries and will most likely have surgery once the season is over. He’s gone.
Can you name one reclass candidate they’re into in the 22 class? I can’t. And if they collapse it completely hinders their ability to get HS or postgrad kids.
Transfers are a different story, but what’s their hit rate on those right now? Not high imo
I feel like people are conflating Champ not being a very good NBA prospect with not being "ready". Tell me, what is he going to improve on in the next 2 years that'd make him more ready? The only thing that might happen is a late growth spurt, but that isn't something he has control over and it'll happen or not happen irrespective of where he is.
He's a terrible defender. Bad off the ball, bad on the ball, just plain bad. There is no position in the NBA that he can guard, he could move Heaven and Earth but that wouldn't change. The other big red flag with him is his 3 point shooting, which he's managed to improve considerably on slightly more volume. Maybe that's a fluke, but let's assume that it's a legit improvement. Do you think he has much more ceiling to reach? If he's hitting 40%, do you think another year is going to turn him into a truly elite shooter? Of course not.
He's a very smart player and he does a lot of little things well to mitigate some of his athletic deficiencies. I don't think he's a poor athlete, he is quite capable in certain facets, but his overall athletic profile is clearly limited by NBA standards. That isn't going to change. If anything, he's far more likely to lose athleticism should he continue to incur serious injuries.
Personally, I would not draft him if I were an NBA exec. Those picks are valuable and I just don't see it with him, but somebody in the NBA will if he continues to shoot ~ 40% from 3. He's tough as hell, high character kid, smart kid, lots of intangible things to like. People are inclined to take a chance on someone like that. He should leave while he's getting this kind of buzz because a dozen different things could rob him of that in a year's time.
He's a terrible defender. Bad off the ball, bad on the ball, just plain bad. There is no position in the NBA that he can guard, he could move Heaven and Earth but that wouldn't change. The other big red flag with him is his 3 point shooting, which he's managed to improve considerably on slightly more volume. Maybe that's a fluke, but let's assume that it's a legit improvement. Do you think he has much more ceiling to reach? If he's hitting 40%, do you think another year is going to turn him into a truly elite shooter? Of course not.
He's a very smart player and he does a lot of little things well to mitigate some of his athletic deficiencies. I don't think he's a poor athlete, he is quite capable in certain facets, but his overall athletic profile is clearly limited by NBA standards. That isn't going to change. If anything, he's far more likely to lose athleticism should he continue to incur serious injuries.
Personally, I would not draft him if I were an NBA exec. Those picks are valuable and I just don't see it with him, but somebody in the NBA will if he continues to shoot ~ 40% from 3. He's tough as hell, high character kid, smart kid, lots of intangible things to like. People are inclined to take a chance on someone like that. He should leave while he's getting this kind of buzz because a dozen different things could rob him of that in a year's time.
I seem to remember Sam Young making a huge leap in 3 point shooting ability. Not saying it will happen with JC, but it certainly could.
With Capel’s track record at Duke, I have no doubts he could sell getting Champ to the NBA on the recruiting trail. The problem would be in the next year, maybe even 2. We may be back in the basement, and that could potentially sway recruits that are interested away.
This isn't the most glowing of reviews from the ESPN Draft analysts:
“his intensity level and technique leave a lot to be desired, at times, as he can be very casual off the ball, gambling for steals excessively and getting scored on by bigger and smaller players more than you’d like."
Its pretty spot on but I would agree if he's projected as a mid to high 2nd rounder, he's gone.
“his intensity level and technique leave a lot to be desired, at times, as he can be very casual off the ball, gambling for steals excessively and getting scored on by bigger and smaller players more than you’d like."
Its pretty spot on but I would agree if he's projected as a mid to high 2nd rounder, he's gone.
Luka Garza averaged 24 and 10 last year and came back because he was projected as a 2nd round guy if he was drafted at all. This year he’s at 26 and 9 and still won’t be a 1st round pick.
For guys that don’t quite fit the NBA mold size/length/athletically wise it can be a tough go getting into the 1st round no matter what kind of numbers they put up. I think Champagnie would be included in this group, his height certainly is working against him.
I also think he should probably leave after the season, he will have very little left to prove and with his history of knee issues it’s time he started making money playing basketball, most probably in Europe.
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I think a lot of people don't realize how sharp the U curve is for NBA draftees based on age. A lot of the time, you'll hear analysis like, "if so and so comes back for one year and improves on x, y or z, he'll get drafted higher", but that's ignoring the age factor. The improvement to their game has to offset the fact that they're a year older, which is absolutely a negative factor. NBA teams are drafting on potential and what factor influences the perception of potential more than age?
I'm not one of the people who is going to search for excuses to avoid giving a coach credit for a recruit. I think Champagnie was much better much sooner than our staff expected, but that is to their credit.
With that said, we haven't seen development of pretty much any other player on our roster in three years. HCJC needs to recruit at a level way higher than he has if he's going to let everyone stagnate for four years.
IMO Capel has spent too much time recruiting like he is at Duke instead of recruiting like he should at Pitt. He's wasted so much time chasing kids who didn't give us the time of day and passed over some other talented guys. If you focus on those 2nd or 3rd tier of kids, some of them are going to end up being Champagnies or Johnsons. The hard part is actually developing them into something more.
I agree with you on the broad strokes, but I don't think it's fair to leave out Toney as an example of someone who the coaching staff developed. Two names instead of one doesn't fundamentally change anything you've said, though.
Capel is expected to recruit at least as good as NCST, SHU, Miami, Illinois, etc. He wasnt brought here to live in the 150-200 range and "develop" players. Yea, you need SOME of those guys but he was brought here to recruit like those powerhouses
Until the 6’8” listed Blair measured at 6’5.5” and was discovered to have no acls- so his medical red flags hurt his draft stock
Young was never going in the first round because he was old for the draft and near his ceiling
I think the reason people push back every time I say this is just how you define "development." Isn't the default expectation that every college player should improve somewhat in each year they play? I don't think it is very common for a player to get legitimately worse over a career.
In Pomeroy's "Tier A+B" game stats, Toney's ORtg has been 89.9, 102.8, and currently 106.1. Yes, that is improvement, but not a wild improvement, especially since he started with a pretty respectable number as a freshman starter.
For comparison, XJ has been 87.7, 87.2, and 94.6. So basically negligible improvement. Champagne has gone from 98.5 to 127.3.
ORtg certainly isn't the sole metric for a player's value, so I understand why some people will disagree with me. But as you said, if he is the next best proof of development, that's not much of an achievement.
Eh. I think Champ has an outside shot at being a POY contender. He made the 24/7 20-person watch list.
Improvement only comes from ones desire to improve . Anyone telling you to work harder and smarter does didilli squat unless your into putting in the effort to improve both your strengths and weaknesses . Sam Young , Gary McGhee , Aron Grey are great examples of guys who busted their butts to improve , but look at a guy like JJMoore who was truly a gifted athlete that never came close to his potential . Does JD get credit for Young etc and is he to blame for JJ ?
Some guys get it others and don’t , some guys peak at 16 and some at 25 , some guys truly love what they do while others don’t , it’s not only on the coaching .
Next year, yes. But not this year with several of our remaining games postponed and us maybe being a 1 win ACC tournament team and an NCAA tournament non-participant.
So it’s entirely on the players? Not the coaches? Capels job is to make the players better.
He wants to give credit when there is success but absolve blame when there isn’t.
I tend to think it’s the players’ jobs to get better but it’s the coaches’ jobs to find players with the desire to get better or are already talented then put those players in the best position to use their talent.
Therein lies the underlying problem which I’ve beat on for 3 years. How do you have four coaches who have sat in the big chair yet almost no offensive game plan and no defensive gameplans this late in the season?
Well- I think coaches can push players in the right direction to add or enhance their skills to make them more effective players -and of course drilling with them to make those fixes stick.
But ultimately how much progress they make is a matter of want to by the player.
Let’s take Xavier as an example - even a schlub like me can see what he needs to improve
1. Ball movement in the offense
2. Patience when the angle isn’t there on drives
3. Continue to improve his jumper - add a step back off the bounce
I don’t doubt for a moment his competitive spirit and desire to win . X wants to win every battle
But the question becomes - when he regresses to bad X- is that a function of him pressing into default mode or the coaches not pushing the right buttons to pull him out of it .
We can’t win when he plays bad .
It’s just that simple
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