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Next year's OOC

Sean Miller Fan

Lair Hall of Famer
Oct 30, 2001
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I was watching the pre-Davidson press conference on Pitt Live Wire and probably half of it was Jamie defending the OOC. I totally agree that it is a really good "RPI schedule" and so far, it has been manipulated almost to perfection. I appreciate that in the sense that it gets us closer to our goal of an NCAA bid and good seed. I don't think anyone is looking at Pitt's schedule and saying, the RPI or SOS is bad, its that they haven't played enough brand-name teams to get Pitt's now apathetic basketball fanbase engaged and enthused before the Steelers are done.

For years, I have tried to point out that some OOC home games had little to no monetary value. Inotherwords, you can drop the game entirely and sell the same number of season tickets. The parking and concessions made off the game wouldn't offset the other team's appearance fee plus the cost of turning on the lights and staffing the Pete. The usuals disagreed with this stating that because Pitt prints a dollar amount on each season ticket, that is what is used to determine how much the game is worth financially. That's untrue of course but I think most of us can finally agree that Pitt is not making any extra money by playing a team like Central Arkansas, where I estimated was only attended by 2500 people. Morehead State, a good mid-major, was only around 2K.

So, it has become clear that Pitt has to dump some home games. Its probably costing them more to staff the place than the money being made off it. So, here is my ideal schedule for next year:

Home
2K Sports home game (we have no control over)
2K Sports home game (we have no control over)
Duquesne (one year at Pete, one year at CEC with the CEC game being a joint home game)
RMU
a good MAC school like Akron or Kent State
mid-major
mid-major
WVU
Temple (just as an example)

Road
Big Ten
Xavier (just as an example)

Neutral
Michigan, Marquette, or SMU @ MSG
Michigan, Marquette, or SMU @ MSG

9 home games is still a lot. WVU will sell out. Temple has a big enough brand name and going to Philly the next year wouldn't hurt recruiting. Duquesne at home should draw a big crowd.

The main difference between this year and this proposed schedule is that the proposed one includes 6 games that are not guaranteed victories. This year, we only had 3 (Gon, Pur, Dav). You go 3-3 in those games and you're fine. 2-4, assuming you don't slip up somewhere else and you probably need to go 10-8 in the ACC but we went into the ACCT at 11-7 2 years ago with many people thinking we'd be right on the bubble if we lost to Wake in our first game and we ran through that OOC.

Ohio State is a great test case this year. They played a very difficult OOC. Too difficult really. They lost all of them but managed to beat Kentucky. That is a huge win. So big that despite all their losses, despite their 8-5 OOC record, they probably make the NCAAT if they go 10-8 in the B10. Now, if they played all cupcakes in the OOC and went 12-1, they probably would still need to 10-8, maybe 9-9. Point is those losses don't really hurt them and the trade-off of the UK win made it all worth it.
 
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If the Gonzaga game had been played to its completion, Pitt's RPI would be even higher and the perception of the OOC schedule this year would be completely different.

Very few OOC schedules have two ranked teams on them. The Gonzaga game cancellation means that we only have one ranked team on ours, which is pretty much average.

Go down through the ACC. Even with no Gonzaga game, Pitt's OOC schedule is better than all but 5 or 6 teams in the league.

This issue is WAY overblown.
 
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If the Gonzaga game had been played to its completion, Pitt's RPI would be even higher and the perception of the OOC schedule this year would be completely different.

Very few OOC schedules have two ranked teams on them. The Gonzaga game cancellation means that we only have one ranked team on ours, which is pretty much average.

Go down through the ACC. Even with no Gonzaga game, Pitt's OOC schedule is better than all but 5 or 6 teams in the league.

This issue is WAY overblown.

I agree. And the only way that teams are getting more than one ranked team is through tournaments or made for TV games.

The criticism Dixon gets is that he doesn't go on the road into hostile territory in the OOC and this is founded. Just adding a home and home with WVU (with the road trip on the opposite year of the Big Ten Challenge road trip) will fit the bill.

This would make certain we would have one good OOC game each year at home. That is all almost everyone.anyone is playing at home.
 
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If the Gonzaga game had been played to its completion, Pitt's RPI would be even higher and the perception of the OOC schedule this year would be completely different.

Very few OOC schedules have two ranked teams on them. The Gonzaga game cancellation means that we only have one ranked team on ours, which is pretty much average.

Go down through the ACC. Even with no Gonzaga game, Pitt's OOC schedule is better than all but 5 or 6 teams in the league.

This issue is WAY overblown.

Pitt's strength of schedule is fine. I don't think anyone can debate that. Maybe its not quite as good as 15 or 20 or whatever its ranked right now, but its fine. My concern is not the strength of the OOC, its the lack of brand name/TV games. With attendance at some of these games being at historical lows and with several thousand unsold season tickets, I feel that we need to juice up the non-con.

I think WVU is a given, like it or not. Barnes likes rivalry games and that's a sell-out and an ESPN game in December but is one of those games enough? WVU at home when we go to the Big Ten and vice versa. Most programs do play at least one. Some play 2. Very few play 3. I propose 3 home and homes because I really don't feel losing those games hurt much and it could really increase ticket sales and garner the interest of the casual Yinzer.

If I were to bet though, I would say the only thing that really changes is the WVU series and I guess that's a start.
 
Pitt's strength of schedule is fine. I don't think anyone can debate that. Maybe its not quite as good as 15 or 20 or whatever its ranked right now, but its fine. My concern is not the strength of the OOC, its the lack of brand name/TV games. With attendance at some of these games being at historical lows and with several thousand unsold season tickets, I feel that we need to juice up the non-con.

I think WVU is a given, like it or not. Barnes likes rivalry games and that's a sell-out and an ESPN game in December but is one of those games enough? WVU at home when we go to the Big Ten and vice versa. Most programs do play at least one. Some play 2. Very few play 3. I propose 3 home and homes because I really don't feel losing those games hurt much and it could really increase ticket sales and garner the interest of the casual Yinzer.

If I were to bet though, I would say the only thing that really changes is the WVU series and I guess that's a start.

These "three home and homes" are not nearly as easy to come by as you and / or others seem to be suggesting.

Maybe you'll get a Dayton like we had a few years back. But is this really going to change fan interest?
 
These "three home and homes" are not nearly as easy to come by as you and / or others seem to be suggesting.

Maybe you'll get a Dayton like we had a few years back. But is this really going to change fan interest?

Its not as hard as you may think. I wouldn't do Dayton. Really good program but not a big enough brand name. Though I bet we get 8K-9K for them if its a 7PM or Sat game.
 
I was watching the pre-Davidson press conference on Pitt Live Wire and probably half of it was Jamie defending the OOC. I totally agree that it is a really good "RPI schedule" and so far, it has been manipulated almost to perfection. I appreciate that in the sense that it gets us closer to our goal of an NCAA bid and good seed. I don't think anyone is looking at Pitt's schedule and saying, the RPI or SOS is bad, its that they haven't played enough brand-name teams to get Pitt's now apathetic basketball fanbase engaged and enthused before the Steelers are done.

For years, I have tried to point out that some OOC home games had little to no monetary value. Inotherwords, you can drop the game entirely and sell the same number of season tickets. The parking and concessions made off the game wouldn't offset the other team's appearance fee plus the cost of turning on the lights and staffing the Pete. The usuals disagreed with this stating that because Pitt prints a dollar amount on each season ticket, that is what is used to determine how much the game is worth financially. That's untrue of course but I think most of us can finally agree that Pitt is not making any extra money by playing a team like Central Arkansas, where I estimated was only attended by 2500 people. Morehead State, a good mid-major, was only around 2K.

So, it has become clear that Pitt has to dump some home games. Its probably costing them more to staff the place than the money being made off it. So, here is my ideal schedule for next year:

Home
2K Sports home game (we have no control over)
2K Sports home game (we have no control over)
Duquesne (one year at Pete, one year at CEC with the CEC game being a joint home game)
RMU
a good MAC school like Akron or Kent State
mid-major
mid-major
WVU
Temple (just as an example)

Road
Big Ten
Xavier (just as an example)

Neutral
Michigan, Marquette, or SMU @ MSG
Michigan, Marquette, or SMU @ MSG

9 home games is still a lot. WVU will sell out. Temple has a big enough brand name and going to Philly the next year wouldn't hurt recruiting. Duquesne at home should draw a big crowd.

The main difference between this year and this proposed schedule is that the proposed one includes 6 games that are not guaranteed victories. This year, we only had 3 (Gon, Pur, Dav). You go 3-3 in those games and you're fine. 2-4, assuming you don't slip up somewhere else and you probably need to go 10-8 in the ACC but we went into the ACCT at 11-7 2 years ago with many people thinking we'd be right on the bubble if we lost to Wake in our first game and we ran through that OOC.

Ohio State is a great test case this year. They played a very difficult OOC. Too difficult really. They lost all of them but managed to beat Kentucky. That is a huge win. So big that despite all their losses, despite their 8-5 OOC record, they probably make the NCAAT if they go 10-8 in the B10. Now, if they played all cupcakes in the OOC and went 12-1, they probably would still need to 10-8, maybe 9-9. Point is those losses don't really hurt them and the trade-off of the UK win made it all worth it.

Where the heck did you find a pre-Davidson press conference on Live Wire??

I looked and it appears it was nowhere's to be found. Are you talking the Morehead Sate post-game PC?
 
How many times are you going to post this same exact thread? There is zero chance that Pitt schedules WVU, B1G, Xavier, Temple AND two legit tourney games. That is absolutely out of the realm of possibility.

Pitt played a top-10 team from a power conference and barely drew 10K. Give whatever BS reason you want for it, but that is exactly the game fans have clamored for during the last 10 years, and nobody cared. Fans are dropping out because there isn't enough interest, bringing in A10 teams isn't going to change that. Pitt football didn't even fill Heinz for Notre Dame this year, and basketball is in the same predicament now.

What people are complaining about these days concerning the schedule is not a solvable problem, in my opinion. The Pitt attendance bubble has burst. Unless Pitt is a top-10 team, what they are drawing now is all they are going to get. That's not pessimistic, that's just honest. The Pirates are riding high right now and they aren't going to draw 38K per night either. As soon as they fall back under .500, their attendance will take a severe hit as well.
 
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On the official site they are now BOASTING about our RPI and SOS.

http://www.pittsburghpanthers.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/122115aae.html

But... what has it done for us recently? We are not ranked in either of the polls and last time we got an NCAA invite, it was a disappointing 8 seed and that seems to be the rule rather than the exception.

Meanwhile... I took a look at the UVA OOC schedule and... they played AT GW (which they lost), AT Ohio State, WVU (neutral), Villanova, and they got 9-2 Cal coming in.

All's we got is the cancelled Gonzaga game, Purdue, and Davidson. All the other games were cupcakes.

So, they had 5 games against name opponents while we just had 3, one of which got cancelled.

And we both have 9-1 records but they are ranked #5 in the country and we.... AIN'T EVEN RANKED in either of the polls.

In other words... NOBODY... and I mean *NOBODY* (!!!)... is impressed with beating up on cupcakes. And the fans, particularly those that attend the games, deserve better.
 
How many times are you going to post this same exact thread? There is zero chance that Pitt schedules WVU, B1G, Xavier, Temple AND two legit tourney games. That is absolutely out of the realm of possibility.

Pitt played a top-10 team from a power conference and barely drew 10K. Give whatever BS reason you want for it, but that is exactly the game fans have clamored for during the last 10 years, and nobody cared. Fans are dropping out because there isn't enough interest, bringing in A10 teams isn't going to change that. Pitt football didn't even fill Heinz for Notre Dame this year, and basketball is in the same predicament now.

What people are complaining about these days concerning the schedule is not a solvable problem, in my opinion. The Pitt attendance bubble has burst. Unless Pitt is a top-10 team, what they are drawing now is all they are going to get. That's not pessimistic, that's just honest. The Pirates are riding high right now and they aren't going to draw 38K per night either. As soon as they fall back under .500, their attendance will take a severe hit as well.

The part in bold is 100% patently false. The only empty seats at kickoff were the upperdeck Student overflow section.... and those were filled halfway through the first quarter once all the students got there.

There were LEGITIMATELY 68,000 at the Notre Dame game. Saying anything else is an outright lie. I was there.
 
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O

But... what has it done for us recently? We are not ranked in either of the polls and last time we got an NCAA invite, it was a disappointing 8 seed and that seems to be the rule rather than the exception.

There's so much incorrect in just the part I quoted above.

A. Being ranked in the polls is absolutely, 100%, completely and unequivocably meaningless with regards to making the tournament and to what seed.

B. In 2014 when we got in as a 9-seed (not an 8).... our RPI was 37th. Exactly where a 9-seed's RPI is expected to be. There was nothing disappointing about our seed. It was the seed we deserved.
 
The part in bold is 100% patently false. The only empty seats at kickoff were the upperdeck Student overflow section.... and those were filled halfway through the first quarter once all the students got there.

There were LEGITIMATELY 68,000 at the Notre Dame game. Saying anything else is an outright lie. I was there.
I am too lazy to look...but if that's true, then Pitt Football holds the Heinz field record. I thought I heard The steelers drew their largest gate ever on Sunday vs Denver, and I am pretty sure it was less than 68K
 
There's so much incorrect in just the part I quoted above.

A. Being ranked in the polls is absolutely, 100%, completely and unequivocably meaningless with regards to making the tournament and to what seed.

B. In 2014 when we got in as a 9-seed (not an 8).... our RPI was 37th. Exactly where a 9-seed's RPI is expected to be. There was nothing disappointing about our seed. It was the seed we deserved.
I think what was disappointing about that seed is that we thought we were better than that. But we got what we deserved, which was Florida in the next round. We were a sweet 16 type team but didn't get there. If we had scheduled better OOC, maybe we would have been a #6,or 7 and avoided the #1 seed in the round of 32.
 
There were LEGITIMATELY 68,000 at the Notre Dame game. Saying anything else is an outright lie. I was there.

I was there also and there were reasonably large sections in the corners of the upper deck on the visitor side. Pitt announced a full sellout, but it didn't happen. Unless 50 people bought a square of seats and all decided not to show up...
 
On the official site they are now BOASTING about our RPI and SOS.

http://www.pittsburghpanthers.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/122115aae.html

But... what has it done for us recently? We are not ranked in either of the polls and last time we got an NCAA invite, it was a disappointing 8 seed and that seems to be the rule rather than the exception.

Meanwhile... I took a look at the UVA OOC schedule and... they played AT GW (which they lost), AT Ohio State, WVU (neutral), Villanova, and they got 9-2 Cal coming in.

All's we got is the cancelled Gonzaga game, Purdue, and Davidson. All the other games were cupcakes.

So, they had 5 games against name opponents while we just had 3, one of which got cancelled.

And we both have 9-1 records but they are ranked #5 in the country and we.... AIN'T EVEN RANKED in either of the polls.

In other words... NOBODY... and I mean *NOBODY* (!!!)... is impressed with beating up on cupcakes. And the fans, particularly those that attend the games, deserve better.

The reason Pitt isn't ranked right now is that they were picked to finish 10th in the ACC preseason and got no votes in any polls. UVA was picked near the top of the ACC and was ranked #6 preseason. If a team is highly ranked early in the year, they will stay in the top 25 until they completely implode. Teams that start out getting no votes have to do a lot more to get to the rankings. Not getting to finish (and win, of course) the Gonzaga game is the difference in Pitt being ranked and unranked at this point.

Polls are stupid and this is a perfect example. Thankfully, polls don't determine the fate of the team and the metrics that matter seem to be in our favor at this point.
 
I think what was disappointing about that seed is that we thought we were better than that. But we got what we deserved, which was Florida in the next round. We were a sweet 16 type team but didn't get there. If we had scheduled better OOC, maybe we would have been a #6,or 7 and avoided the #1 seed in the round of 32.

The problem the 2014 team had was not based on their schedule. The problem the 2014 team had was that they lost 5 home games: Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, FSU, and NCSt. Based on the way home games are weighted more heavily in RPI calculations, those losses really killed Pitt. If you actually look at a quality-based metric like Pomeroy, Pitt entered the tournament as #17, which means they were more like a 5-seed than an 8-seed. Even when you finish 11-7, it is hard to rationalize 5 home losses.
 
The reason Pitt isn't ranked right now is that they were picked to finish 10th in the ACC preseason and got no votes in any polls. UVA was picked near the top of the ACC and was ranked #6 preseason. If a team is highly ranked early in the year, they will stay in the top 25 until they completely implode. Teams that start out getting no votes have to do a lot more to get to the rankings. Not getting to finish (and win, of course) the Gonzaga game is the difference in Pitt being ranked and unranked at this point.

Polls are stupid and this is a perfect example. Thankfully, polls don't determine the fate of the team and the metrics that matter seem to be in our favor at this point.

Very good summary. Two Pitt-centric examples: In 2010, Pitt started NR and earned a 3-seed while not being ranked until they were 12-2 on Jan. 4; In 2012, Pitt started #10 and didn't drop out of the poll until they were 11-4 on Jan. 2 en route to a 5-13 conference record.

Pitt has a very good chance to win the next 4 games and be 14-1, which will absolutely be ranked. Compare that to #16 Louisville this year, whose OOC is rated #320 by Pomeroy.
 
I wonder what the demographics are for the current season ticket holders that Pitts has and of those that they have lost. Oakland is a pain in the ass to go to and the Pete steps are not friendly to anyone with issues of mobility. You through in the lackluster seasons of late and I can see losing some fans , especially the elder ones.
Has Pitts marketing department been doing all that it can to convert former zoo residents into season ticket holders ? Whose idea was it to package the 3 games with a $25 donation ,no cost conscience fan is going for that. The Wiz promotion was a start , but the ACC and the program aren't selling itself so add some piazzas .
 
I am too lazy to look...but if that's true, then Pitt Football holds the Heinz field record. I thought I heard The steelers drew their largest gate ever on Sunday vs Denver, and I am pretty sure it was less than 68K
The Steeler drew the largest NFL gate ever this past Sunday.

The largest crowd for a football game at Heinz Field is 68,400 this year vs Notre Dame.
 
I was there also and there were reasonably large sections in the corners of the upper deck on the visitor side. Pitt announced a full sellout, but it didn't happen. Unless 50 people bought a square of seats and all decided not to show up...

The stadium holds 69,000 now. Pitt announced 68,400. There's your 600 unused seats.
 
I'm not going to argue over something that can't be proven. There were many empty seats for ND, more than in prior years. There were many empty seats for Purdue, despite being the best OOC opponent ever at the Pete.
 
I'm not going to argue over something that can't be proven. There were many empty seats for ND, more than in prior years. There were many empty seats for Purdue, despite being the best OOC opponent ever at the Pete.
I was at both games and then watched both on DVR. There were significantly more empty seats by % for the Purdue game. But yet you'd never know because the blue seats help hide it.

Damn Rooneys.
 
There were many empty seats for Purdue, despite being the best OOC opponent ever at the Pete.
Say Pitt were to have played one of the old "Big East names" at the Pete that our fans are readily familiar with as an OOC game this year instead of Purdue. Teams like UConn, Georgetown, Villanova--do you think would that game have drawn more than the #11 Purdue game just because of name recognition and familiarity?
 
500.jpg


Halftime...
hqdefault.jpg
 
Say Pitt were to have played one of the old "Big East names" at the Pete that our fans are readily familiar with as an OOC game this year instead of Purdue. Teams like UConn, Georgetown, Villanova--do you think would that game have drawn more than the #11 Purdue game?
I don't believe the opponent is the crucial element in the formula for greater attendance . Having two or three really good OOC games will obviously boost attendance for those games and be blessing for loyal season ticket holders ,but what needs to happen is that Pitt needs become a top ten team with an exciting All Americian player. Then they'll fill the place up.
 
The Steeler drew the largest NFL gate ever this past Sunday.

The largest crowd for a football game at Heinz Field is 68,400 this year vs Notre Dame.

Depends on how you define "largest crowd". The largest announced crowd was absolutely the Pitt - Notre Dame game this season. But Pitt doesn't use the turnstile count and the NFL does. So there were certainly more people actually at the Stiller game this past Sunday than were at the Pitt - Notre Dame game.
 
500.jpg


Halftime...
hqdefault.jpg
You do realize that a significant percentage of the crowd gets up at halftime and goes to the concession stand and restroom, right?

Those pictures show me that the announced crowd was pretty close... since the empty seats are randomly spread around the stadium and not in big open chunks.
 
Whose idea was it to package the 3 games with a $25 donation ,no cost conscience fan is going for that.

That is really strange. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but the 3 game mini package only offers a 5 dollar per game discount but when you include the donation, its actually more money than buying the tickets individually. Its as if they packaged the games with a donation only to maintain that all season ticket holder or package buyers are PC members. They have to get away from that notion. Even with adding a game or 2 OOC games that fans want to see, there simply isnt enough demand anymore to sell 12,500 season tickets with donations. They need to price like football and offer the worst seats cheaper with no donation. Pitt sold just about 0 season tickets in the upper deck endzone and corners.
 
You do realize that a significant percentage of the crowd gets up at halftime and goes to the concession stand and restroom, right?

Those pictures show me that the announced crowd was pretty close... since the empty seats are randomly spread around the stadium and not in big open chunks.
Yeah. Those pics do more to support UPitt '89's argument.
 
Say Pitt were to have played one of the old "Big East names" at the Pete that our fans are readily familiar with as an OOC game this year instead of Purdue. Teams like UConn, Georgetown, Villanova--do you think would that game have drawn more than the #11 Purdue game just because of name recognition and familiarity?

I think if those teams had been here while ranked in the top-10, attendance would have been higher. The point is that people here are constantly complaining about lack of P5 OOC games, so I don't think relying solely on old conference rivals is relevant. This was the best OOC opponent ever to play at the Pete and the fans didn't care enough to show up. Short of Kentucky or Kansas, I don't think any opponent is going to sell the place out based on name alone. It is also a ridiculous leap to say that 1-2 games against P5 teams who aren't top-10 teams are going to result in a jump in season ticket sales. Did more people buy tickets this year because we hosted Purdue? If not, why would anyone buy tickets next year if we host Mississippi or Oregon State? It is just a specious argument.

I somewhat agree with SMF that some sections should be donation-free, but the goal of the athletic department is to bring in revenue, not purely to sell tickets. Donations are necessary for the long term health of Pitt athletics, and Barnes is working hard to make this known to fans. Getting people in the door with tiny donations is a good idea.
 
When you have a real waiting list then you can add a surcharge to the tickets , empty seats = 0 revenue. Why not let any recent graduate to buy season tickets at a discount without any donation for five yrs?
 
When you have a real waiting list then you can add a surcharge to the tickets , empty seats = 0 revenue. Why not let any recent graduate to buy season tickets at a discount without any donation for five yrs?

Given the overall popularity of the Zoo for 15 years, Pitt has translated those students into season ticket holders at an abysmal rate. Previous administrations have been more content to appease the old farts with money than to put any effort into the long term sustainability of the fanbase.
 
Given the overall popularity of the Zoo for 15 years, Pitt has translated those students into season ticket holders at an abysmal rate. Previous administrations have been more content to appease the old farts with money than to put any effort into the long term sustainability of the fanbase.
You can blame this on the stupid reseating plan.

They'd rather keep the plan and have thousands of seats go completely unsold for the season than admit they screwed up and fix the error and get those seats sold again.
 
The point is that people here are constantly complaining about lack of P5 OOC games, so I don't think relying solely on old conference rivals is relevant. This was the best OOC opponent ever to play at the Pete and the fans didn't care enough to show up.

Can people stop ripping the Purdue crowd? The game was a 9PM Tuesday night tip-off. Do you know how lousy that is for attendance most everywhere?

Pitt season ticket holders are very very old and are usually in bed by 9. Younger fans or casual fans arent on the bandwagon yet and its asking quite a lot for that IUP grad living in Imperial to get home at midnight when he has to work the next morning. The game was on TV and the Penguin game started at 10PM, further hurting attendance.

There would have been 1K-2K more people there if the game tipped at 7.

If the Purdue game was this past Saturday, it might have sold out.
 
You can blame this on the stupid reseating plan.

They'd rather keep the plan and have thousands of seats go completely unsold for the season than admit they screwed up and fix the error and get those seats sold again.

I disagreed with you here but respected your opinion until I read that other thread this morning. Your opinion on this is ridiculously biased and laughably wrong.
 
Here is my schedule for next year...you are welcome Scott Barnes and Jamie Dixon
at Michigan State
Villanova
at Kentucky
at Kansas
Ohio State
at Texas
Arizona
Duquesne
Connecticut
Maryland
at Purdue
West Virginia
at Gonzaga

That'll show 'em

We are Pitt fans we deserve better damn it!
 
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