I’ve listened to a boat load of ACC team preview podcasts and read every article I can find on Pitt. Most have a lot of basic information about Pitt wrong. That’s what inspired this post. I started writing a response to one of the podcasts and just kept going. This is just for discussion, and I’d love feedback, counter points, and additional points to consider, but this is how I look at things heading into the season. This is really long so I’ll post the Offense first and then the Defense.
There are 14 teams in the ACC. I’m using a 4 letter grade scale to measure each position group against the rest of the ACC. An “A” grade means the position group is one of the top 3 in the ACC, a “B” means the group is between 4th and 6th, a “C” means the position group is between 7th and 10th, and a D means the group is one the 4 worst, 11th through 14th. My 2018 grades rely heavily on actual production from the prior year, but the 2019 projections are based my opinion.
QB. 2018 Grade: D. 2019 Projection: C.
Jr. Kenny Pickett returns as the starting QB and should be better after starting 14 games last season. The play calling last year was bad and the pass blocking was worse. Considering how infrequently we passed the ball and Pickett’s relative mobility, finishing 79th in sacks allowed is even worse than it looks. Pickett only attempted 310 passes in 14 games, a mere 22 attempts per game (70th in the FBS, 13th in the ACC), for 1,969 yards (13th in the ACC), 12 TDs (11th in the ACC), and 6 interceptions (2nd behind Lawrence).
Pickett’s 58% pass completion percentage (12th in the ACC) wasn’t good, but he was only passing on obvious passing downs. Pickett did average 10.9 yards per completion, which isn’t awful. Looking at the metrics from 2018, Pickett was either the 11th or 12th best QB in the ACC, which means he gets a D.
I absolutely believe Pickett will be better this season, but it’s hard to say how much. Hopefully he will be aided by the quick, rhythmic passing game Whipple used at UMass and appears to be implementing here. But let’s make modest assumptions about his improvement. Let’s only assume a modest increase of 5 more passes per game in 2019. That would be 27 per game, 324 in the regular season, likely near the bottom of the ACC again, but consistent with past years under Narduzzi.
Let’s also assume that between play design, play calls, WR experience, and his own improvement, Pickett’s completion percentage increases 5% to 63% (middle of the ACC). That would give Pickett 204 completed passes in 12 games. In 2018, Pickett threw a touchdown on 6.7% of his completed passes and an interception on 3.3%.
Let’s assume another modest increase of 1 yard in Pickett’s yards per completion to 11.9, a modest increase his interception rate to a still-low 4%, and improve TDs to 7.5% (these numbers are random, but none are better than median in the ACC to reflect our reliance on the run and Pickett’s relative weakness, other than interception rate where Pickett is strong).
Running these numbers and comparing them to 2018 ACC stats, that would give Pickett 2,447 yards (8th in the ACC up from 13th), 15 TDs (9th in the ACC up from 12th), and 8 interceptions (2nd in the ACC again after Lawrence). These are all realistic improvements.
Every evaluation I can find put’s Pickett at around 10th out of the 11 returning QBs in the ACC, but a modest increase should put him closer to 7th. Likewise, 204/324, 63%, 2,447 yards, 15 TDs, and 8 Int. puts him close to Nate Peterman’s 2015 junior year stats (193/313, 61.7%, 2,287, 20 TDs, 8 Int.) and should be enough to win 7 or 8 games, if we can still run the ball effectively.
With just a little more improvement than I’m expecting, especially in TDs, Pickett could be in the top half of ACC QB’s by year’s end with another year to play. If he puts up numbers close to this projection, modest as they are, we should feel pretty good about him in 2020.
There are 14 teams in the ACC. I’m using a 4 letter grade scale to measure each position group against the rest of the ACC. An “A” grade means the position group is one of the top 3 in the ACC, a “B” means the group is between 4th and 6th, a “C” means the position group is between 7th and 10th, and a D means the group is one the 4 worst, 11th through 14th. My 2018 grades rely heavily on actual production from the prior year, but the 2019 projections are based my opinion.
QB. 2018 Grade: D. 2019 Projection: C.
Jr. Kenny Pickett returns as the starting QB and should be better after starting 14 games last season. The play calling last year was bad and the pass blocking was worse. Considering how infrequently we passed the ball and Pickett’s relative mobility, finishing 79th in sacks allowed is even worse than it looks. Pickett only attempted 310 passes in 14 games, a mere 22 attempts per game (70th in the FBS, 13th in the ACC), for 1,969 yards (13th in the ACC), 12 TDs (11th in the ACC), and 6 interceptions (2nd behind Lawrence).
Pickett’s 58% pass completion percentage (12th in the ACC) wasn’t good, but he was only passing on obvious passing downs. Pickett did average 10.9 yards per completion, which isn’t awful. Looking at the metrics from 2018, Pickett was either the 11th or 12th best QB in the ACC, which means he gets a D.
I absolutely believe Pickett will be better this season, but it’s hard to say how much. Hopefully he will be aided by the quick, rhythmic passing game Whipple used at UMass and appears to be implementing here. But let’s make modest assumptions about his improvement. Let’s only assume a modest increase of 5 more passes per game in 2019. That would be 27 per game, 324 in the regular season, likely near the bottom of the ACC again, but consistent with past years under Narduzzi.
Let’s also assume that between play design, play calls, WR experience, and his own improvement, Pickett’s completion percentage increases 5% to 63% (middle of the ACC). That would give Pickett 204 completed passes in 12 games. In 2018, Pickett threw a touchdown on 6.7% of his completed passes and an interception on 3.3%.
Let’s assume another modest increase of 1 yard in Pickett’s yards per completion to 11.9, a modest increase his interception rate to a still-low 4%, and improve TDs to 7.5% (these numbers are random, but none are better than median in the ACC to reflect our reliance on the run and Pickett’s relative weakness, other than interception rate where Pickett is strong).
Running these numbers and comparing them to 2018 ACC stats, that would give Pickett 2,447 yards (8th in the ACC up from 13th), 15 TDs (9th in the ACC up from 12th), and 8 interceptions (2nd in the ACC again after Lawrence). These are all realistic improvements.
Every evaluation I can find put’s Pickett at around 10th out of the 11 returning QBs in the ACC, but a modest increase should put him closer to 7th. Likewise, 204/324, 63%, 2,447 yards, 15 TDs, and 8 Int. puts him close to Nate Peterman’s 2015 junior year stats (193/313, 61.7%, 2,287, 20 TDs, 8 Int.) and should be enough to win 7 or 8 games, if we can still run the ball effectively.
With just a little more improvement than I’m expecting, especially in TDs, Pickett could be in the top half of ACC QB’s by year’s end with another year to play. If he puts up numbers close to this projection, modest as they are, we should feel pretty good about him in 2020.
