OT: Contradictory Rules in Sports

[Joe the Panther Fan]

A quick Google search says that about 75% of penalty kicks are successful. If you're telling me many people don't even try to put it in a place where the goalie can't get it, yet 3/4 of them are still going in... I don't know; that just sounds like there is an awful lot of guesswork involved.

It's all guesswork from the goalies point of view. What I am saying is that if the person taking the penalty does it well it makes no difference what so ever if the goalie guesses right or not. But even if the taker is trying to put the ball in a spot like that, the success rate isn't 100% because sometimes the ball doesn't actually go exactly where the taker wants it to go. Sometimes instead of the ball being a foot inside the post it's a foot outside the post. Sometimes instead of the ball being a foot or two under the crossbar the ball goes over the bar. Those misses don't have anything at all to do with guess work, they have to do with players not being machines who can place the ball exactly where they want to 100% of the time.

And sometimes the taker wants to put the ball a foot inside the post and instead they hit it five feet inside the post, and in that case whether or not the goalie guessed right is really, really important.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Penalties are essentially a free throw contest. At least the hockey shootout involves talent and involves both sides to equally have a chance to make a play.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

It's all guesswork from the goalies point of view. What I am saying is that if the person taking the penalty does it well it makes no difference what so ever if the goalie guesses right or not. But even if the taker is trying to put the ball in a spot like that, the success rate isn't 100% because sometimes the ball doesn't actually go exactly where the taker wants it to go. Sometimes instead of the ball being a foot inside the post it's a foot outside the post. Sometimes instead of the ball being a foot or two under the crossbar the ball goes over the bar. Those misses don't have anything at all to do with guess work, they have to do with players not being machines who can place the ball exactly where they want to 100% of the time.

And sometimes the taker wants to put the ball a foot inside the post and instead they hit it five feet inside the post, and in that case whether or not the goalie guessed right is really, really important.

I think freakonomics did an analysis that the highest probability for success is a straight kick to the middle of the goal

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

I think freakonomics did an analysis that the highest probability for success is a straight kick to the middle of the goal

Makes sense because of two things:
1) Chances are the goalie is making a move either left or right on a guess.
2) You are not picking a corner therefore a miss is less likely.

 

[jivecat]

How about Larusso's illegal kick to Johnny's face in the all valley tourney? Complete BS.

 

[GenesPlace]

it blows my mind how offsides has changed in football. it used to be that as a Defensive lineman you could jump off sides, but if they got back before the ball snapped there was no penalty. but now if the offensive lineman flinches when the DL jumps, they call the defensive lineman for offsides.

I was an offensive lineman, and if the guy across me jumped, i had to remain set. i had to be knocked over by the defensive lineman for him to be called offsides if the ball hadn't been snapped yet.

 

[PharMorNightStocker]

Makes sense because of two things:
1) Chances are the goalie is making a move either left or right on a guess.
2) You are not picking a corner therefore a miss is less likely.

See, and that's an issue with me. You're talking about determining a game on a kick that I, someone who hasn't kicked a soccer ball in probably 30 years, could probably make a fair amount of the time. NHL shootouts are one thing, but at least they're not determining playoff games... and they're something your average Joe could never convert on.

 

[pittzap]

it blows my mind how offsides has changed in football. it used to be that as a Defensive lineman you could jump off sides, but if they got back before the ball snapped there was no penalty. but now if the offensive lineman flinches when the DL jumps, they call the defensive lineman for offsides.

I was an offensive lineman, and if the guy across me jumped, i had to remain set. i had to be knocked over by the defensive lineman for him to be called offsides if the ball hadn't been snapped yet.

I agree 100%. The offense knows the play and the count. They should be penalized if they move.

 

[pittdan77]

I agree 100%. The offense knows the play and the count. They should be penalized if they move.

Ever line up against a 270 pound plus human being with lightening speed that plays one, maybe two downs out of every three or four you're playing while listening to the cadence and the scheme being called out by two different people while trying not to get killed? It's a bit more complicated that blocking a 52 stack monster on Friday night.

 

[pittzap]

Ever line up against a 270 pound plus human being with lightening speed that plays one, maybe two downs out of every three or four you're playing while listening to the cadence and the scheme being called out by two different people while trying not to get killed? It's a bit more complicated that blocking a 52 stack monster on Friday night.

Have you?

Maybe we should outlaw sacking the QB, then, while we are at it? Maybe switch to 7 on 7. The dlinemen are much bigger than the quarterbacks and they might get hurt.

 

[pittdan77]

Have you?

Maybe we should outlaw sacking the QB, then, while we are at it? Maybe switch to 7 on 7. The dlinemen are much bigger than the quarterbacks and they might get hurt.

Yeah, I have and you're going to flinch when that guy moves. I played at 310 and those guys have unreal speed and skills. You miss one step and they will make you look silly.

 

[ratking17]

I hate the rule that the DB has to look back at the ball to break up a pass.

 

[GenesPlace]

I agree with blowing the play dead if the defensive player is unabated to the QB and calling it offsides on the defense.

i'm referring to the line of scrimmage where there is at most 1 step between the down lineman. all i'm saying is that the defensive tackle, if not engaged, should be able to reset if the ball hasn't been snapped yet. pretty sure at any level, the offensive line could take some contact it it meant 5 free yards.

Yeah, I have and you're going to flinch when that guy moves. I played at 310 and those guys have unreal speed and skills. You miss one step and they will make you look silly.

 

[pittzap]

Yeah, I have and you're going to flinch when that guy moves. I played at 310 and those guys have unreal speed and skills. You miss one step and they will make you look silly.

So you’ve played over the last few seasons where you referenced it being more complicated now?

For years and years they penalized the offense for flinching and it was fine. Now it’s another penalty to help favor the offense.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I think freakonomics did an analysis that the highest probability for success is a straight kick to the middle of the goal

I think it probably is, if you are talking about a one off kick right now. The problem with that as a long term strategy is that if you start doing it more than just occasionally that the goalie will take that into account when he's deciding how/when to move. And if you've ever seen someone take a penalty like that, just kick the ball right down the middle, when the goalie doesn't move, well, the penalty taker looks more than a little silly.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Makes sense because of two things:
1) Chances are the goalie is making a move either left or right on a guess.
2) You are not picking a corner therefore a miss is less likely.

Correct was the rationale
Getting it on goal and not missing improves your chances
Letang and Malkin could take a note

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

I think it probably is, if you are talking about a one off kick right now. The problem with that as a long term strategy is that if you start doing it more than just occasionally that the goalie will take that into account when he's deciding how/when to move. And if you've ever seen someone take a penalty like that, just kick the ball right down the middle, when the goalie doesn't move, well, the penalty taker looks more than a little silly.

Well yeah
That was was premise -
The wrong incentives at play -
An offensive player rather aim for a corner - even if it’s a lower probability of scoring to save face -
Than kicking it straight

 

[BFo8]

The only problem with kicking it dead center is you can only do it so often before the other side knows it’s coming. When they show the charts with the players PK tendencies most of them tend to mix it up pretty well though.

 

[anon_d97v9o3a8b6xr]

A quick Google search says that about 75% of penalty kicks are successful. If you're telling me many people don't even try to put it in a place where the goalie can't get it, yet 3/4 of them are still going in... I don't know; that just sounds like there is an awful lot of guesswork involved.

This is what penalty kicks have become. A complete joke if you ask me.

 

[DT_PITT]

I don't like that rule that forces Pitt's quarterback to run to the sideline after each play.

Well played.

 

[pittdan77]

So you’ve played over the last few seasons where you referenced it being more complicated now?

For years and years they penalized the offense for flinching and it was fine. Now it’s another penalty to help favor the offense.

Sorry. Been a few years but it was never a simple task. Doesn't favor the offense at all. Just gives D-linemen something else to cry about.

 

[pittdan77]

I agree with blowing the play dead if the defensive player is unabated to the QB and calling it offsides on the defense.

i'm referring to the line of scrimmage where there is at most 1 step between the down lineman. all i'm saying is that the defensive tackle, if not engaged, should be able to reset if the ball hasn't been snapped yet. pretty sure at any level, the offensive line could take some contact it it meant 5 free yards.

It was a big advantage to the D-line for a long time. Those guys knew what they were doing and took advantage of it. One of the better rule changes, honestly.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

This is what penalty kicks have become. A complete joke if you ask me.

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I did not know you could do that. That's BS. Also BS is in a hockey shootout where the puck carrier basically stops in front of the goal, he should be forced to continue to go forward.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

I did not know you could do that. That's BS. Also BS is in a hockey shootout where the puck carrier basically stops in front of the goal, he should be forced to continue to go forward.

Why?
If you are moving nominally forward you’re within the shootout rules
Patience shouldn’t be penalized

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Why?
If you are moving nominally forward you’re within the shootout rules
Patience shouldn’t be penalized

It becomes a circus.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

It becomes a circus.

Shootouts are a circus
So much they don’t happen in the post season

We should applaud those who defy convention

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

The only problem with kicking it dead center is you can only do it so often before the other side knows it’s coming. When they show the charts with the players PK tendencies most of them tend to mix it up pretty well though.

Exactly. That is one of those strategies that the more often you do it the less likely it will be to work.