OT: Steelers start with 7th-best odds to win Super Bowl LV

[HailToPitt725]

Vegas doesn’t sleep... 7th best odds to win Super Bowl no. 7
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/

Honestly, I think if Ben has even 80% of the stats he had before, they can contend for the Super Bowl. Defense is legit again (although they will likely lose Hargrave and/or Hilton) and IMO the offense’s problems are overstated. Just need to address the tight end position and maybe draft a lineman and they should be set.

 

[pittdan77]

Vegas doesn’t sleep... 7th best odds to win Super Bowl no. 7
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/

Honestly, I think if Ben comes back even 80% they can contend for the Super Bowl. Defense is legit again (although they will likely lose Hargrave and/or Hilton) and IMO the offense’s problems are overstated. Just need to address the tight end position and maybe draft a lineman and they should be set.

No team is going to win the NFL with a QB that is 80%.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

i like Ben but i have little faith that he will return and be in any kind of shape to be even above avg.. arm / elbow injury, approaching 40, dude is weeks away from even throwing a tennis ball.

i hope im wrong cause we finally have a respectable defense..

 

[PharMorNightStocker]

The defense is pretty good, but it's not elite. Hayden is inching toward the wheels falling off... he already gets fried over the top. Hargrave will be gone... we'll see what they do with Dupree (I assume he'll either be franchised or signed long-term). And Edmunds still sucks, in my opinion. We'll see which offensive line shows up, too. They looked downright old at times last year. I think they should let Foster and Mark Barron walk.

 

[HailToPitt725]

No team is going to win the NFL with a QB that is 80%.

By 80%, I mean his statistics come even 80% close to where they were the last time he played a full season (5,129 yards, 34 TDs). Maybe he’ll after 80% of his 16 INTs, too.

 

[pittdan77]

By 80%, I mean his statistics come even 80% close to where they were the last time he played a full season (5,129 yards, 34 TDs). Maybe he’ll after 80% of his 16 INTs, too.

Ahhhh...my bad.

 

[HailToPitt725]

Ahhhh...my bad.

Nah, the way I wrote it I can see why it was misleading. I changed it so hopefully that clarifies it. Definitely agree that we can’t win it he’s 80% healthy.

Just meant to say that with the defense and team around him, he doesn’t have to be the air-raid Big Ben we saw with the Killer Bs.

 

[revampedpanthers]

Nah, the way I wrote it I can see why it was misleading. I changed it so hopefully that clarifies it. Definitely agree that we can’t win it he’s 80% healthy.

Just meant to say that with the defense and team around him, he doesn’t have to be the air-raid Big Ben we saw with the Killer Bs.

Agree. If Ben plays last season the Steelers end up with 11 or 12 wins. However while I believe the defense has turned the corner I am not convinced they can equal last year's performance even if everyone returns. They got a ton of turnovers last year and that doesn't happen all the time in the NFL. A perfect example is the Chicago bears. NFL's number one defense from two years ago. Last year they fell off to somewhere in the 6 to 8 range, still good but they didn't create the turnovers they did in 2018. Also I am always warry of a d that is good when the offense sucks. When teams have to score because they are down the tend to do better when they only have to score 20 points to guarantee a win sometimes game plans get paired down in a attempt to not beat yourself.

 

[PharMorNightStocker]

Agree. If Ben plays last season the Steelers end up with 11 or 12 wins. However while I believe the defense has turned the corner I am not convinced they can equal last year's performance even if everyone returns. They got a ton of turnovers last year and that doesn't happen all the time in the NFL. A perfect example is the Chicago bears. NFL's number one defense from two years ago. Last year they fell off to somewhere in the 6 to 8 range, still good but they didn't create the turnovers they did in 2018. Also I am always warry of a d that is good when the offense sucks. When teams have to score because they are down the tend to do better when they only have to score 20 points to guarantee a win sometimes game plans get paired down in a attempt to not beat yourself.

Exactly. When NFL games turn into track meets, no defense is stopping anybody. It's not like our D is going to perform at the same level if the offense is scoring 25+/game. Like you said, teams have a tendency to adjust to the style of game being played.

Also, we faced some pretty anemic offenses last year. I'm not sure if that will happen again.

 

[NCanton Panther]

Vegas doesn’t sleep... 7th best odds to win Super Bowl no. 7
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/

Honestly, I think if Ben has even 80% of the stats he had before, they can contend for the Super Bowl. Defense is legit again (although they will likely lose Hargrave and/or Hilton) and IMO the offense’s problems are overstated. Just need to address the tight end position and maybe draft a lineman and they should be set.

Considering the performance of the O this past season, I thing it is impossible to overstate the O’s problems.

If Ben returns at 100% let alone 80% there is still a lot of upgrades or improvements in other areas that need made to right the ship and be a serious SB contender. It’s not unthinkable but let’s also not kid ourselves about the deficiencies that need shored up.

 

[HailToPitt725]

Considering the performance of the O this past season, I thing it is impossible to overstate the O’s problems.

If Ben returns at 100% let alone 80% there is still a lot of upgrades or improvements in other areas that need made to right the ship and be a serious SB contender. It’s not unthinkable but let’s also not kid ourselves about the deficiencies that need shored up.

Let me play devils advocate: Is it just a coincidence that the offense’s struggles arose as soon as Big Ben went down? Defenses respected the passing game much less, which led to tighter coverages and selling out on the run. Ben was also not behind center to call things out for the offensive line, which might’ve played a part in their struggles (though you can’t blame that on all of their struggles because they’re getting up there in age and were without Munchak).

If Ben comes back healthy, give me a tight end and left guard (assuming they cut McDonald and Foster for salary proposes) and IMO this team is once again a Super Bowl contender.

 

[BFo8]

Just an FYI for anyone looking at these odds, Vegas doesn’t really think the Steelers have the 7th best chance to win the Super Bowl. The reason they have the 7th best odds to start is that they are such a “public” team that will take an enormous amount of money that books start their odds much lower than they should be knowing they will have to lower them eventually anyways. Every Steeler fan in the country that walks through a book plunks some money down on the Steelers to win the Super Bowl, so by opening lower the books are limiting their exposure somewhat.

The Cubs are another great example of this. Even in years where they are projected to be lousy the Cubs odds to win the World Series always open much lower than they realistically should be. Just about every single book opens the season with the Cubs to win as by far their biggest liability.