Pirates don't re-sign J.A. Happ, give me a break
- Thread starter PittPoker
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Edinson Volquez had his worst xFIP since 2009 last year. He pitched in a gigantic home ballpark and in front of one of the best defenses in modern baseball history. Individually, he was not and is not particularly good.
Nutsack, the worst owner in all professional sports thanks you and the entire kielbasa/ bobble head crowd. Have another kielbasa and you won't have to watch the garbage on the field.
You are so old and grumpy. It's amazing.
How much more money would have been required for them (or the Yankees for that matter) to get passed the freak show streak of pitching that was Jake Arrietta in one game ?
Just for fun, let's turn back the clock to 2012 to illustrate the spend big in free agency viewpoint. 2012 was the last of of the 20-years of losing. Let's take the suggested $25-$40M and invest it into free agents to fill the named holes at 1B, 3B, and SP for the next 3 years. We will use actual FA signing results to determine the most prized players available. These are the guys the market showed as the most attractive additions at the time and are not cherry-picked anomalies. Coming off of 20-years of losing, it's fair to assume the Pirate would need to pay a slight premium over the actual contracts for those players.
At 1B...
There were ZERO first basemen in free agency good enough to get multi-year MLB contracts in 2012. The most lucrative player on the market was Mark Reynolds for 1 year $6M.
Let's say the Pirates foolishly gave him $18M over 3 years for a cost of $6M per year.
At 3B...
The FA pool looked like a retirement community in 2012 with Wigginton, E.Chavez, Youkilis, and Hannahan the biggest names. Too old for multi-year deals, so we would need to revisit the market in 2013.
Let's say the free-spending Bucs outspend the Yankees for the 2012 top prize of Youkilis to a 1-year deal at $14M and then outbid the Dodgers for the top prize in 2013 of Juan Uribe and pay him 2-years $16M ($8M per year). Annual spend at 3B for the 3-years is $10M/year.
At Starting Pitcher...
Even with the "$25M-$40M" of imaginary new payroll per year, the Bucs would not be able to outbid the Dodgers for the clear #1 prize, Zach Grienke's $24.5M per year over 6 years or Anibal Sanchez's $80M contract over 5 years, so it's fair to say they are off the table. Among the rest of the FA pool, the next biggest paydays went to Ryan Dempster at $26M over 2 years and Jeremy Guthrie @ 3 years/$25M.
Let's say the Bucs win the bid for both and sign Dempster at $40M over 3 years and Guthrie at $27M over 3 years, for an annual spend of $19M over 3 years for both. As a result, there is no need for the 'reclamation projects and reaches. Bucs don't even consider needing to sign F.Liriano in 2012 to the $1M 1 year contract. Do they still trade for Burnett?
Total spend for these 4 players is $35M per year with $5M left for other minor upgrades.
1B- Mark Reynolds
3B- Kevin Youkilis/Juan Uribe
SP- Ryan Dempster & Jeremy Guthrie
Over those 3 years their stats were:
Reynolds - .216 BA, .698 OPS, 56 HR, 160 RBI (annual slash of .216/19 HR/53 RBI)
Youkilis (1 year)- played only 28 games, .219 BA, 2 HR, 8 RBI
Uribe (2 years)- played on 3 different teams in 2015, over last 2 years, .283 BA, 23 HR, 97 RBI (annual slash of .283/12 HR/59 RBI)
Dempster - Played 1 season and retired before end of his R.Sox contract. 4.57 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 8-9 W/L
Guthrie - 4.57 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 36-31 W/L
With these signings, the 'dumpster diving bargain finds ' such as Liriano for $1M in his first year and subsequently re-signing, Burnett trade with Yankees paying the bulk of his first year salary and later returning at discount, Volquez at $5M for 1 year, etc never happen.
Would this path realistically led to better than the 98-win wildcard team in 2015? Unlikely. The organization is extremely well-run within the constraints of the current economics of baseball, no matter how much people want to scream about cheapness being the problem.
At 1B...
There were ZERO first basemen in free agency good enough to get multi-year MLB contracts in 2012. The most lucrative player on the market was Mark Reynolds for 1 year $6M.
Let's say the Pirates foolishly gave him $18M over 3 years for a cost of $6M per year.
At 3B...
The FA pool looked like a retirement community in 2012 with Wigginton, E.Chavez, Youkilis, and Hannahan the biggest names. Too old for multi-year deals, so we would need to revisit the market in 2013.
Let's say the free-spending Bucs outspend the Yankees for the 2012 top prize of Youkilis to a 1-year deal at $14M and then outbid the Dodgers for the top prize in 2013 of Juan Uribe and pay him 2-years $16M ($8M per year). Annual spend at 3B for the 3-years is $10M/year.
At Starting Pitcher...
Even with the "$25M-$40M" of imaginary new payroll per year, the Bucs would not be able to outbid the Dodgers for the clear #1 prize, Zach Grienke's $24.5M per year over 6 years or Anibal Sanchez's $80M contract over 5 years, so it's fair to say they are off the table. Among the rest of the FA pool, the next biggest paydays went to Ryan Dempster at $26M over 2 years and Jeremy Guthrie @ 3 years/$25M.
Let's say the Bucs win the bid for both and sign Dempster at $40M over 3 years and Guthrie at $27M over 3 years, for an annual spend of $19M over 3 years for both. As a result, there is no need for the 'reclamation projects and reaches. Bucs don't even consider needing to sign F.Liriano in 2012 to the $1M 1 year contract. Do they still trade for Burnett?
Total spend for these 4 players is $35M per year with $5M left for other minor upgrades.
1B- Mark Reynolds
3B- Kevin Youkilis/Juan Uribe
SP- Ryan Dempster & Jeremy Guthrie
Over those 3 years their stats were:
Reynolds - .216 BA, .698 OPS, 56 HR, 160 RBI (annual slash of .216/19 HR/53 RBI)
Youkilis (1 year)- played only 28 games, .219 BA, 2 HR, 8 RBI
Uribe (2 years)- played on 3 different teams in 2015, over last 2 years, .283 BA, 23 HR, 97 RBI (annual slash of .283/12 HR/59 RBI)
Dempster - Played 1 season and retired before end of his R.Sox contract. 4.57 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 8-9 W/L
Guthrie - 4.57 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 36-31 W/L
With these signings, the 'dumpster diving bargain finds ' such as Liriano for $1M in his first year and subsequently re-signing, Burnett trade with Yankees paying the bulk of his first year salary and later returning at discount, Volquez at $5M for 1 year, etc never happen.
Would this path realistically led to better than the 98-win wildcard team in 2015? Unlikely. The organization is extremely well-run within the constraints of the current economics of baseball, no matter how much people want to scream about cheapness being the problem.
JoseLind, you may as well have typed that in Chinese, because guys like Poker and Del will never understand what you just wrote.
This should basically end anymore discussion from Del and Poker.
BTW, another guy everyone wanted was James Loney. Giving him 8-10 million a year would have turned out to be a disaster.
Interestingly, Michael Morse was another free agent 1B signing in the past couple years that would have fit perfectly into this discussion.
Here's what I understand my bobble head loving yinzer, the Prates haven't won a championship since 1979 and they will not win another one until Nutssck, one of the cheapest owners in all of professional sports, sells the team. He cares about one thing the net income line on his income statement. You're a sucker! Have a kielbasa with moneybalz!
You're right - the Pirates should keep dumpster diving for trash-keeps a team in the burg which will ever smell a championship.
Like many other before (and after him). He got the money offer he wanted and took it. Can't be mad at either or him or the Pirates. The pirates don't have that kinda money to spend on 1 or 2 players. That's why teams wait for them to develop players , and offer them cash to leave. Didn't Volquez turn his good pirates year into a big check and a world series ring ? And that's why players run to Pittsburgh to reestablish themselves. Cervelli was an often injured catcher before he got here, martin was going to be a perennial back up, Burnett got reestablished here, took the money and left , and came back. It's baseball as usual. Why do you think the Yankees win so often ?And for you individuals crying about Happ, the Pirates were just voted best (overall) organization in baseball and have one of the best minor league systems right now. Personally I would rather a player come up in the system like Cole and Locke and give us a few years cheaply then sign him (even then he would be a bargain) then over spend on a old veteran. That former way is how the old GM's though and why it took the Pirates almost 30 years to get a winning season.
Go Nuttings wallet, go nuttings wallet, repeat after me sheep, go nuttings wallet. Never will I understand, why the star trek pirate geeks , want nutting to not over spend one cent for any player!!!! When you have to over spend at times to win championships. Good lord. Nutting one of richest owners in baseball being supported for dumpster diving and NOT WINNING NOTHING
Yes, how would the Royals have ever won the World Series without the $26MM spent on Alex Rios, Jason Vargas, and Jeremy Guthrie?
That's overspending for a championship right there. That's TRYING.
That's overspending for a championship right there. That's TRYING.
Do you have an original thought of your own or do you just go around parroting Mark Madden all day?
It's also pretty much widely accepted that free agency doesn't set a guy's market value at all and is instead just an example of the winner's curse. So I'm not sure what the point you quoted was even trying to say.
Volquez comes to Pittsburgh, rejuvenates his career, wins 16 games and was our best 2nd half pitcher down the stretch and the Pirates CAN'T pay the guy 20 million for 2 years?? Oh please, that resigning was a no-brainer. Then Huntington had the nerve to say something like they don't see him doing the same thing the next year, that the 16 games he won was a fluke. Yeah sure, when Nutting wouldn't pony up the dough, then it's a fluke.
Just examples like that - I'd take him, no matter what all these advanced metrics say, over terribly inconsistent Morton and Locke.
Just examples like that - I'd take him, no matter what all these advanced metrics say, over terribly inconsistent Morton and Locke.
Edinson Volquez was worse last year than he was in Pittsburgh, and he wasn't terribly good for the Pirates.
The "issue" isn't about wanting to pay Volquez, it's that Volquez's individual contributions are mediocre and replaceable and he isn't the type of mediocre and replaceable that fits what the Pirates like (groundball heavy pitcher). Had they kept him, he would have had the 4th highest xFIP on the Pirates last year behind Jaff Decker, Vance Worley, and Antonio Bastardo. Had he maintained his production with the Pirates, he still would have had the 4th highest xFIP.
I do, however, give you props for building an argument based on Edinson Volquez's consistency and also valuing nothing but pitcher wins. Takes a special amount of disinterest in baseball to accomplish.
I like the Pirates, I think they generally do a nice job with pitchers, but they didn't "rejuvenate" his career. He's pitched the last 2 years in a way that more or less aligns with his career numbers. Nothing special, nothing that he's "fixed". He just had the luxury of pitching in front of 2 really good defenses and in massive home ballparks.
Considering he had the WORST era in the NL the year before the Pirates signed him, then goes out and after a middling 1st half, becomes our top starter with an era around 2 the last 2 1/2 months and was thought so highly of Hurdle started him in the WC game - yeah your opinion about him not being "terribly good" for the Pirates shows how Clueless you really are.
Keep trotting out those metrics though.
You're confusing the Pirates "fixing" him with the Pirates looking at his ERA compared to his xFIP and realizing that he wasn't nearly as bad as his ERA reflected. They brought him in, his ERA normalized, and voila -- a "fixed" pitcher.
He had a 4.07 xFIP the year before he came to the Pirates. He was clearly better than his ERA suggested. He put up a 4.20 xFIP with the Pirates, which is similar to what he did the year before (slightly worse) and saw his results get better due to a strong defense and a huge home ballpark. There was no "tweak" or "fix" that made him better. He was basically the same pitcher.
This is what the Pirates do. They look at a guy's peripherals, sign them to a short deal that's below their true ability, rinse, and repeat. It's been talked about ad nauseum nationally and among the more knowledgeable local bloggers.
Well, isn't it sort of similar to the Pirates more investing $26M last year in free agents Liriano, Burnett, and Kang (w/ signing rights money included)? .
The 2015 Royals are a perfect model for small market teams to follow. They drafted wisely, committed to building a strong organization from top to bottom, and the result is a MLB team polluted with quality homegrown young talent and supplemented with a few veteran signings to fill the holes a win a championship. A contributing reason their payroll spiked to $118M while the Pirates are projecting near $100M next year is that some of their homegrown talent are in their later years of club control, and closer to free agency (i.e.- top earner Alex Gordon).
The unfortunate reality of baseball is that the Royals roster will likely be decimated in the next few years, spending will drop significantly, and they will attempt to re-load and remain competitive with the next line of talent in their minor league system.
They're not fans . They're aspiring investment bankers who somehow believe that by Supporting the path of fiscal conservatism, it makes them appear intellectually superior- they're just dumb!
My point is that the Royals won with 0 contributions from those players, so the whole "you need to spend to win" argument is just a farce -- and has been for years. Look at the large payroll teams and look at the dead weight on those teams. The actual amount paid to contributors is FAR less than the dollars reported on the books.
There's no reason to kill a team like the Pirates for NOT having a bad contract on their books. That's just stupid, although among Pittsburgh fans that tends to be the norm.
What is everyone's thoughts on letting Pedro walk? I personally did not want him back, but I think more logically they should've traded him this past season. Huntington said this winter they could not find anyone interested at all.
I'm sure every team in baseball knew he would hit the market and they could get him without giving up any of their players for him. It would've been nice to get anything at all in return for a guy with that kind of power, but they really could not keep throwing the worst defensive player in baseball out there.
I'm sure every team in baseball knew he would hit the market and they could get him without giving up any of their players for him. It would've been nice to get anything at all in return for a guy with that kind of power, but they really could not keep throwing the worst defensive player in baseball out there.
How are the Pirates replacing his home runs dumpster diving? We are not even sniffing the playoffs, take the under wins total to the bank
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The bumbling Buccos organization blew it twice: first wasting a first round pick on him; and second letting him go without getting anything for him. He wasn't very good but what is behind him is worse. Once again the Nutsack and his crew put money ahead of on the field results. Bobble heads, kielbasa anyone?
Good god...he wasn't very good, but you wanted to keep him, and he isn't very good but someone would want him in a trade? That is some fine logic there!
And btw, he was a near consensus pick at that spot.
If the Pirates would have passed on Pedro in the draft, certain people here would have been furious about not taking the consensus best player available and said the Pirates were too cheap to negotiate with Scott Boras, but when Pedro's MLB career falls short of lofty expectations, they immediately blast the Pirates for taking him with that #2 pick.
That's a special kind of logic.
That's a special kind of logic.
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