After beating Syracuse yesterday is now at 48. If you have a NET in the top 50 that usually means you are gonna make the tournament. Still a long way to go but if Pitt can get this win against Duke at home on Tuesday and then they don’t slip up next Saturday against a bad Boston College team that would then put them at 9-2 overall and 5-1 in the ACC. At that point I think we can officially start talking about this team having a legit chance to make the NCCA Tournament.
Pitt’s Net Ranking...
- Thread starter Blair_45
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Amazing how this system rewards such a high score to a team like Penn State who has a higher rating (42) yet has a losing record, is winless in the big 10, has a losing road record, and a losing record against quality opponents. They have a quality win against VTech. That’s the story.
Pitt has a good shot at winning 3 of their next 4. With BC Notre Dame and split duke unc
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Sagarin "Recent" Ratings show a similar story about Pitt's prospects this morning. The overall Sagarin ratings remain too influenced by pre-season predictions and the St. Francis loss, however.
Sagarin (1-17-21)
Sagarin Ratings (Recent)
6 Virginia 91.79
29 Duke 85.29
30 Florida St 85.55
35 VA Tech 84.91
40 Pitt 83.33
41 Louisville 83.02
44 Clemson 82.83
45 GA Tech 82.44
52 N. Carolina 81.87
85 Syracuse 78.06
105 NC State 76.80
109 Miami 76.37
121 N. Dame 75.47
150 B.C. 73.37
152 Wake For. 73.12
On another note--somewhat interesting--the average home court advantage that Sagarin tracks has (in this year w/o fans) has settled around 1.93 or 1.94 points. In normal years it was typically around 3.25 points. This suggests that, on average, home court familiarity and not needing to travel is worth about 2 points/game and fan influence about 1.25 points per game, also on average, in college hoops. A full Pete with the Oakland zoo, or a Duke with the Cameron Crazies is likely worth more than 1.25 points due to fans.
Sagarin (1-17-21)
Sagarin Ratings (Recent)
6 Virginia 91.79
29 Duke 85.29
30 Florida St 85.55
35 VA Tech 84.91
40 Pitt 83.33
41 Louisville 83.02
44 Clemson 82.83
45 GA Tech 82.44
52 N. Carolina 81.87
85 Syracuse 78.06
105 NC State 76.80
109 Miami 76.37
121 N. Dame 75.47
150 B.C. 73.37
152 Wake For. 73.12
On another note--somewhat interesting--the average home court advantage that Sagarin tracks has (in this year w/o fans) has settled around 1.93 or 1.94 points. In normal years it was typically around 3.25 points. This suggests that, on average, home court familiarity and not needing to travel is worth about 2 points/game and fan influence about 1.25 points per game, also on average, in college hoops. A full Pete with the Oakland zoo, or a Duke with the Cameron Crazies is likely worth more than 1.25 points due to fans.
It’s hard to believe we lost to St Francis seeing what we’ve done since but even more so seeing their results since then. They are an awful team.
I’m shocked at duke’s high ranking. Look at their schedule. They beat a few cupcakes and lost to three high ranked teams. Getting the same penn st effect because they played and lost to good teams
BC is not a bad team. They have some talented players and have played so really good games. Kicking Miami's butt last week, hanging with Nova, NC St and Duke or beating Rhode Island are good examples of that. However, they are not consistent and very streaky, so you have no idea what team shows up. If our team beats Duke and then thinks we don't have to play hard to beat them, we will lose.
Exactly every game going forward is tough.
There are no gimmies. I'm just hoping for .500 from here on out with some wins against ranked teams to boost that resume.
I can see Pitt going 3-1 in the next 4 games with Duke,BC,UNC, and Notre Dame. That would put Pitt at 10-3 overall and 6-2 in the ACC heading into February with a very good chance of competing for an NCCA Tournament spot.
It's still early, but people who look at the numbers are coming to the conclusion that nearly ALL of the difference in home court advantage between previous season and this season is because home teams are not getting calls from the refs at the same rate that they have in the past. There is still a small bias in calls towards the home team, but it is not nearly as large as it has been in the past.
There is normally little advantage in things like not traveling and home court familiarity, and normally a much greater advantage in the refs being influenced by the home crowd.
Some systems may, but at the very least, as more games get played at a higher level the less and less influence the clunker game will have. But, only 9 games into the season, the clunker can still be having a fairly substantial impact. The Pitt example-- Pitt's "recent" Sagarin rating has them #40 but the regular Sagarin rating which is still influenced by pre-season assumptions and the St Francis game, no doubt, has Pitt #66 and about 2 points weaker per game.
Especially if we don't defend the 3-ball agressively and they get hot and hit 18-3s in a game like they did recently in that big upset win they had.
If that should happen and one of those wins is Duke, then wow...the excitement level will be off the charts, the team will likely be ranked and on the inside looking out of the NCAAT field.
Fun to think about, but I'm really curious to see how this team handles success. They have never really tasted it, but they followed the 2-2 start in 18-19 with a long losing streak and the huge upset win over FSU with a loss to Nicholls last year. I happen to think this team is more mature, but it's a different mindset when you start being favored in some games.
Still can't believe that St. Francis game. It's hurting us now and hopefully it doesn't hurt us in the future (fingers-crossed - being on the bubble/election Sunday).
The NET is culturally biased LOL - name that movie and the character is referring to the SAT's? 1990's basketball movie. Huge hints maybe..
I hope PSU keeps getting bashed anyways.
2 wins vs. SU, NW and Miami - not bad, but need many more for our resume.
The NET is culturally biased LOL - name that movie and the character is referring to the SAT's? 1990's basketball movie. Huge hints maybe..
I hope PSU keeps getting bashed anyways.
2 wins vs. SU, NW and Miami - not bad, but need many more for our resume.
"There is normally little advantage in things like not traveling and home court familiarity, and normally a much greater advantage in the refs being influenced by the home crowd."
I used to believe that as well. However, the Sagarin numbers appear to suggest otherwise. They make it appear that that factor may be more in the 50% to 60% range as an average (1.93/3.25 is about 60% ). But, as you say, if there is data showing there is still some reduced amount of "home cooking" in calls made by the officials that number assigned to travel related effects should be lower than what Sagarin's data suggests. How much lower is the question?
Another factor which isn't accounted for here is the effect on the players efforts resulting from crowd encouragement. This year that effect is probably not there; but in a normal year it would need to be among home court advantage factors.
FWIW--ESPN's chances of winning each of our remaining currently scheduled 13 ACC games suggests Pitt is likely to win 6 and lose 7 of the remaining 13 regular season games.
Were that to occur Pitt would head to the ACC Tourney at 13-9 (9-8 ACC).
Worst possible case might be 11-11 (7-10 ACC) and best case might be 17-5 (13-4 ACC).
A lot of what we're seeing from the various ratings systems is that the complete lack of OOC play this year has really left a ton of slack in the rankings. In past years by February you typically get Pomeroy, Sagarin, my own rankings, and any other decent possession based all moving pretty much in lockstep but this year there just aren't enough data points yet so you're really seeing everyone's kludges and assumptions from the preseason still in play. It's why, for example, that we're a three point dog on Kenpom but I have us as a two point favorite on Tuesday, the weights are just all over the place.
Wow. Never knew kludges was a word.
This particular Duke team is one of Coach K's weaker teams of the last 10 years. We can and will compete, the only question is will we win?
If we win on Tuesday, I’m calling in sick Wednesday. And we’re working from home.
Agreed. I've avoided betting on college hoops this year as I've found the data to be generally less reliable than previous years.
If there's a "theme" around Pitt this year it's slow starts. Both for the season, and in individual games.
i dont know i played on some pretty good cyo teams... drinking beer in the parking lot afterwards was always the highlight though. glad the parents never came
st louise de marillac
and i was kidding...we were pretty average. lol
Lol not when i was in 6th grade you weren't.
I don't think we played you when i was Cyo.
But when i was young you guys were real good.
Some kid Nick, the coaches son was a player.
At this point sites like KenPom are just pissing me off:
After last night:
Penn st ranked 48 with a 3-6 record
Pitt ranked 60 with an 8-2 record
they have a win over Va Tech which is completely driving their ranking (only other wins are VCU and VMI). 0-5 in conference
After last night:
Penn st ranked 48 with a 3-6 record
Pitt ranked 60 with an 8-2 record
they have a win over Va Tech which is completely driving their ranking (only other wins are VCU and VMI). 0-5 in conference
I seriously wonder if things like that are why we aren’t properly seeded in some bracketology. Still not in the field in Jerry Palm’s latest update this morning.
We did at least pass 3-4 South Carolina but not 4-8 Kentucky.
KenPom and NET (to some extent) rate the "quality of a team" without weighting the final score as heavily as RPI.
For example, lets say PSU goes 0-20 in the brutal Big Ten but loses every game by 1 point, their KenPom wouldn't be as bad as you'd think because the math would indicate that if they are losing to really good teams by 1, they are probably better than half the teams in leagues like the ACC, P12, SEC, etc.
They never released the math for NET but I believe there is some of that built in as well.
There used to be a site that was my go to and I suspect others here used it too. It was called the RPI Wizard that allowed you to change game results to see what your ranking would be if the result were different. That would be beneficial now, just for us to see what changing our loss vs St Francis to a win would do to our ranking. The site also allowed you to plug in future W/L results to see how certain scenarios would impact the overall ranking. Just wondering if anyone knows of such a site these days??
I liked that site. I didn't like RPI. One of its main flaws was it penalized you for beating bad teams. I used to take out games vs 300 type teams altogether and our ranking would go up. Point differential matters. Of course winning the game is most important but beating a teal ranked 310th by 45 should be "count more" than beating them by 2.
