Our OL is going to take control and maul their defense. This is going to be fun. They took down the odds post on their site regarding this.
H2P
H2P
Last edited:
Pitt Favored by 9 vs UPS
- Thread starter 9nationalchampionships
- Start date
Obviously 4 month point spreads are meaningless. But if it pisses off the cult, then I am all for it
Correction, Southpoint's opener was at 9, now bet down to 7.5.
In these look ahead lines limits are very small, usually $500-$1000, and move very quickly. Especially if it's someone well respected betting into them.
I'm surprised it differs so much from the computer models. I'm a pretty big homer and this spread exceeds what I was expecting. The spread tells me the expectations for the average fan for at least one the teams differs from the above average bettor.
What are the computer models saying? Link?
(I only ask because this is the second projection I have read that favors Pitt. The other one was an ESPN (?) projection of PSU games next year. I believe they listed it as PSU having only a 34% chance of winning, one of the smallest % for their entire season, even smaller than their game vs. tOSU.)
Exactly, the average betting fan thinks PITT will beat the sh*t out of Ped U.
But how is this possible since PSU has outrecruited Pitt for at least the past 4 years? Perhaps recruiting rankings aren't what they're cracked up to be. I'm actually surprised to see a spread that big either way, with both teams having new OCs and questionable QBs.
Narduzzi > Franklin.....and it isn't even close
I believe you as I think this would be a hard game to handicap, but I'd appreciate any links.
Last edited:
I'm not near a real computer for a few days, but that's a fair request that I just can't accommodate.
Edit: The following shows that the 66% win probability corresponds to roughly a six point spread so FPI is I inline. http://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nab
Last edited:
As with every game PSU has lost since 2012, the Cult's built in excuse if PSU loses will be the crippling, brutal, unfair, draconian sanctions. And of course, feel free to throw a generous amount of crying that the refs were jealous and cheated PSU on every call.
By "they", you can't possibly mean BWI. Nothing like that would have made it there in the first place.
Their new QB will be good but I'll be pretty surprised if he can adjust in time to Pitt's pass rush.
The Southpoint line is different however. Anyone willing can step up to the window and bet their hard earned cash against the current number. Wish I'd known they were going to do this, the Golden Nugget is usually the first place in the world to post these, and it's usually a field day for sharps to beat these early numbers into submission.
Ohio St +9 vs Oklahoma also got bet pretty heavy, not so much because it's the right side, but because this will likely be at somewhere between 6.5 and 7 the week of the game.
It is good to see the oddsmakers have that much confidence in Pitt to make a line that high. After all, PSU outrecruits Pitt every year, despite the scandal. I suspect the line will be much lower come gametime, considering their national reputation (TIC) .
I stopped by the BWI board a few minutes ago before coming here. It is always the same nonsense about "Ooooh we are the best combination of school and FB, and we have success with (dis)honor".
SHUT THE FVCK UP PSU PEOPLE!!!!!
PSU isn't the best school in their division, as that would be Michigan
PSU isn't the best FB school in their division. Lately that would be MSU or TUOS, or all time would be Michigan
They hold losing records to Michigan, MSU and the Bucks in their own division. Neb and Wisky also if you count the entire B1G, and they are only 1 game over 500 vs Iowa. Wiscy is another school with better academics besides better head to head vs PSU as well as the Wolverines.
So losing records vs 5 teams in conference, and at least 3 other schools are better academic wise (Michigan, NW, and Wiscy).
My God, get over it already. PSU is just another middle rung program. They are middle of the road FB wise, and 4th at best academic wise. They should know 4th at best real well....that will be their landing spot again this year in division.
In short, piss off PSU fans. The delusions of grandeur are beyond old. The conference members are not jealous of you, and with all the Sandusky banter, even Purdue is looking down their noses at ya.
Now that is a perfectly rational way of viewing things. Totally on board with this.
Miami out recruits Pitt as well....and yet Pitt was a 7 point favorite. ....
Oh wait a minute. ..........
Oh wait a minute. ..........
9 is pretty high. I'd expect us to be a 3-5 point favorite. Either way, we are better and a loss would be catastrophic. It would be a crime to lose to a PSU team that we are better than.....at home, no less.
I am not high and mighty at all. If you read my entire post, you would see where I said that I am surprised by the spread. I am not sold on Peterman at qb as he was mediocre at best against average and better competition.
Personally, its going to be a close game. Neither team is going to be that great next season, with both probably looking at 7-8 wins seasons.
The comedy that is BWI though that is hysterical to me is what they think of their offense. The addition of Moorehead and how "teams better watch out because they are going to be better than Oregon on offense nationally". They seem to forget the last time Moorehead was an OC, he was relieved of his OC duties at UConn and then had to drop down to FCS for his next job. Yet with a band new QB and the same OL as last year, better watch out. Best offense in the country. LMAO.
The comedy that is BWI though that is hysterical to me is what they think of their offense. The addition of Moorehead and how "teams better watch out because they are going to be better than Oregon on offense nationally". They seem to forget the last time Moorehead was an OC, he was relieved of his OC duties at UConn and then had to drop down to FCS for his next job. Yet with a band new QB and the same OL as last year, better watch out. Best offense in the country. LMAO.
I agree about BWI. I saw where they expect 35 pts a game from their offense and that almost all expect a win over Pitt with several saying it will be by at least 3 touchdowns. I guess the spring game has many over their pounding their chests.
As far as the game goes if we can keep their offense in check and not give up big plays while controlling the clock and pounding the ball I think our o-line can wear their d-line down and open some big holes and bust a few longer runs during the game.
I think 9 is a little too high as well but I can understand why it may be that high (plus this will get early action on the nits driving the line down to where pitt fans will throw $$$$$$ on it).
Well, on THIS board free discussion, and opposing points of view, are permitted . . . unlike a certain other college sports message board I can name.
No need to stop talking about what the opening line was. It was Pitt -9. That's what the thread was about.... the OPENING line.
I'm also enjoying the discussion on BWI about how PSU backfield is the best in the country (not just better than Pitt)....when they are counting two players who have never had a single carry at the FBS football level.
Barkley is a good back who gained 1076 yards last year, but its funny how little respect they have for Pitt's backfield. Conner, in 2014, was the ACC POY and rushed for almost 1800 yards. Ollison, who was an ACC ROY, ran for over 1100 yards last year in his first season....i.e., more yards than Barkley. Then you add in Hall who ran for 4 YPC as a true freshman.
PSU is falling into the recruiting fallacy right now to try and drum up bright spots. Some Pitt fans do as well when it comes to highly rated recruits. Hate to break this to everyone, but a 4/5 star HS players equals a zero star college football player until the play in their first games.
Barkley is a good back who gained 1076 yards last year, but its funny how little respect they have for Pitt's backfield. Conner, in 2014, was the ACC POY and rushed for almost 1800 yards. Ollison, who was an ACC ROY, ran for over 1100 yards last year in his first season....i.e., more yards than Barkley. Then you add in Hall who ran for 4 YPC as a true freshman.
PSU is falling into the recruiting fallacy right now to try and drum up bright spots. Some Pitt fans do as well when it comes to highly rated recruits. Hate to break this to everyone, but a 4/5 star HS players equals a zero star college football player until the play in their first games.
-Penn State covered against the spread 3 times last year. They lost every other game against the spread. Putting points on Penn State would make Vegas look dumb, since Penn State was awful last year. Considering that, a brand new QB, and an incredibly weak looking D-line, it makes perfect sense.
