Pitt is averaging 14.7 points through 3 games...

[#99HUGHgreen]

that ranks 126 out 130 teams.

Not going to win too many games if that continues. They might need at leas 35 points just to have a chance to beat UCF. Any chance that happens? Got to find a way to finish drives with TDs.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

that ranks 126 out 130 teams.

Not going to win too many games if that continues. They might need at leas 35 points just to have a chance to beat UCF. Any chance that happens? Got to find a way to finish drives with TDs.

frustrating to say the least. what is killing me is we can move the ball in the air, our tackles and OL as a whole gave pickett time and pickett actually looked good in pocket and made some very good throws.

So the two biggest question marks we had were answered with great answers and yet, we still cant put up points..

 

[#99HUGHgreen]

frustrating to say the least. what is killing me is we can move the ball in the air, our tackles and OL as a whole gave pickett time and pickett actually looked good in pocket and made some very good throws.

So the two biggest question marks we had were answered with great answers and yet, we still cant put up points..

There is almost zero confidence by the coaches in the running game - which was the one part of the offense PN mentioned (before the season) he was confident would be good.

When you can’t count on your RBs (even to get a yard or two when you need them), it really limits your options on offense and makes success extremely difficult.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

There is almost zero confidence by the coaches in the running game - which was the one part of the offense PN mentioned (before the season) he was confident would be good.

When you can’t count on your RBs (even to get a yard or two when you need them), it really limits your options on offense and makes success extremely difficult.

well yes, i cant really disagree but the good thing is, the competition gets less daunting once we get to some acc games. no clue what ucf's front 7 is like on defense but there isn't a defense in the acc that we play that will be of similar talent than psu.

maybe our run game gels a tiny bit to the point where we can at least keep opposing defenses somewhat honest.. we don't have a 1000 yard back, i don't even think we have a 600 yard back this year to be honest but we will need to do something soon as far as a run game..

 

[RingDinger]

I've never seen so much positivity (not on this thread, but in general) surrounding a team that is 1-2 and averaging 14 points per game. People are sincerely talking about winning the Coastal (which, admittedly, is bad). But I think we need to figure out a way to score a 2nd-half touchdown or two first. I get that the Penn State game felt a lot like the Notre Dame game last year, but we better start to mount some offense if we're going to rip off a similar winning streak after it. Right now, it feels like all our games are being played in El Paso.

 

[lilspainishflea]

We played:

#7 scoring defense (PSU)
#37 scoring defense (UVA, tied with LSU)
#64 scoring defense (yes, Ohio is tied with Duke)

Yes, the lack of points are concerning but let's keep it in perspective here.

Left is:

#57 UNC and VT (tied)
# 64 Duke
# 88 Georgia Tech and Boston College (tied)
#111 Syracuse

If we can't score on those teams, we're in trouble.

 

[#99HUGHgreen]

We played:

#7 scoring defense (PSU)
#37 scoring defense (UVA, tied with LSU)
#64 scoring defense (yes, Ohio is tied with Duke)

Yes, the lack of points are concerning but let's keep it in perspective here.

Left is:

#57 UNC and VT (tied)
# 64 Duke
# 88 Georgia Tech and Boston College (tied)
#111 Syracuse

If we can't score on those teams, we're in trouble.

Yes we would be. Hopefully we get it going.

So Pitt’s offense scored just 10 points agains the #7 defense, 14 against the #37 defense and 20 points against #64 defense.

If we assume they continue to produce points based on the defensive rankings of future opponents then...

We can expect Pitt’s offense to score around
18 against VT
18 against UNC
21 against Duke
27 against GT
27 against BC
35 against Syracuse

What happens with UFC and Miami?

 

[HailToPitt1985]

that ranks 126 out 130 teams.

Not going to win too many games if that continues. They might need at leas 35 points just to have a chance to beat UCF. Any chance that happens? Got to find a way to finish drives with TDs.

We'll need more than 35 points to beat UCF and we'll need at least 3 TD's in the second half to beat UCF. We can't score in the second half and our coaching staff makes zero halftime adjustments. Not a good formula to beat the toughest team on our schedule this entire year.

 

[Franb]

We played:

#7 scoring defense (PSU)
#37 scoring defense (UVA, tied with LSU)
#64 scoring defense (yes, Ohio is tied with Duke)

Yes, the lack of points are concerning but let's keep it in perspective here.

Left is:

#57 UNC and VT (tied)
# 64 Duke
# 88 Georgia Tech and Boston College (tied)
#111 Syracuse

If we can't score on those teams, we're in trouble.

Keep in mind that these rankings are after 3 games, and one reason the teams we played have good rankings is that they played against our bad offense.

 

[persp]

I've never seen so much positivity (not on this thread, but in general) surrounding a team that is 1-2 and averaging 14 points per game. People are sincerely talking about winning the Coastal (which, admittedly, is bad). But I think we need to figure out a way to score a 2nd-half touchdown or two first. I get that the Penn State game felt a lot like the Notre Dame game last year, but we better start to mount some offense if we're going to rip off a similar winning streak after it. Right now, it feels like all our games are being played in El Paso.

Pitt barely needed offense last year to win the Coastal but they need way more this year with a better defense?

The offense will score. It improves each game and will only be a matter of time before they start putting up 25-30 per game. Once that happens, they will beat the hell out whats left of the division.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

Pitt barely needed offense last year to win the Coastal but they need way more this year with a better defense?

The offense will score. It improves each game and will only be a matter of time before they start putting up 25-30 per game. Once that happens, they will beat the hell out whats left of the division.

Semi-reasonable post, but we are already two games back of UVA (who has a manageable ACC schedule this year), which is reality regardless of yards per game. That was a huge, huge loss.

 

[Atch]

We played:

#7 scoring defense (PSU)
#37 scoring defense (UVA, tied with LSU)
#64 scoring defense (yes, Ohio is tied with Duke)

Yes, the lack of points are concerning but let's keep it in perspective here.

Left is:

#57 UNC and VT (tied)
# 64 Duke
# 88 Georgia Tech and Boston College (tied)
#111 Syracuse

If we can't score on those teams, we're in trouble.

45 points is inexcusable for three games, regardless if they are #'s 37, 7 or 64.

 

[pittdan77]

The inability to sustain drives is the problem.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

I think there are two issues causing the lack of points, even though they're getting yards.

1) The lack of running game hurts in short yardage and in the red zone. It's been a problem they haven't been able to fix.

2) Self inflicted woulds on offenses. Penalties, drops, missed blocks at the worst time.

I'm more confident 2 can be fixed but worry most about #1. They OL seems incapable of moving anyone off the LOS. Is it bad technique/leverage, lack of strength, inexperience, not the right mentality, everything, I don't know? Not sure how you fix that.

 

[persp]

Semi-reasonable post, but we are already two games back of UVA (who has a manageable ACC schedule this year), which is reality regardless of yards per game. That was a huge, huge loss.

Well, that is something out of the team's control at this point and no longer worthy of any worry. If Pitt wins out in the ACC and UVA holds serve, Ill tip my cap to them and wish them well against Clemson. If Pitt wins out in the ACC, all of these complaints we are hearing now will have magically gone away as well.

Even a small improvement with the offense with the defense this team has will be enough to get the best of every team in the league. More improvement would be better, but it wont take much to give this D enough points to win out in the ACC

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

The inability to sustain drives is the problem.

Yep, succinctly.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

Our yards per play on first down has to be dreadful.

 

[RingDinger]

Pitt barely needed offense last year to win the Coastal but they need way more this year with a better defense?

The offense will score. It improves each game and will only be a matter of time before they start putting up 25-30 per game. Once that happens, they will beat the hell out whats left of the division.

Last year isn't a constant variable. It's not like we're trying to match our prior time on a track or something. Who's to say that the other teams also won't get better? For instance, Virginia seems a hell of a lot better than whoever finished #2 in the Coastal last year. Also, we were averaging a touchdown more per game at this point last year (useless comparison, I realize, but both examples include two P5 teams and a scrub team as the competition).

I think people are banking too much on last year duplicating itself. It's a new season. I do agree that the defense is better. Shoot, the quarterback also looks better. But we also don't have four all-conference linemen and an NFL fullback blocking for an NFL running back. For better or for worse, things are just different.

Again, I get why Pitt fans are thinking as they are. But you don't think Virginia Tech, Miami, etc. fans are looking at Pitt right now and saying, "Well that should be winnable, because they can't even crack 20."? Like I said, it starts with us. If our offense doesn't improve, there isn't much hope.

 

[persp]

Last year isn't a constant variable. It's not like we're trying to match our prior time on a track or something. Who's to say that the other teams also won't get better? For instance, Virginia seems a hell of a lot better than whoever finished #2 in the Coastal last year. Also, we were averaging a touchdown more per game at this point last year (useless comparison, I realize, but both examples include two P5 teams and a scrub team as the competition).

I think people are banking too much on last year duplicating itself. It's a new season. I do agree that the defense is better. Shoot, the quarterback also looks better. But we also don't have four all-conference linemen and an NFL fullback blocking for an NFL running back. For better or for worse, things are just different.

Again, I get why Pitt fans are thinking as they are. But you don't think Virginia Tech, Miami, etc. fans are looking at Pitt right now and saying, "Well that should be winnable, because they can't even crack 20."? Like I said, it starts with us. If our offense doesn't improve, there isn't much hope.

You are forgetting that after 3 games last season, no one on the board thought Pitt had 4 all conference OL or two NFL running backs. But by the end of the season, they did. Narduzzi's teams generally improve pretty drastically over the course of a season, and this one will be no exception.

The difference this season is that the defense is already very good right now. If the offense continues to progress, even if the defense doesn't, then there is a better than average chance that Pitt will be able to win every remaining ACC game on the slate. There is no scary matchup left. If the defense wasnt so good I wouldnt be having this opinion, but because it is, I do.

If I was every other team in the ACC, I would be extremely worried about facing this defense. Bates has done a great job of masking their calls and keeping the offenses off balance. Those teams will get better, no doubt, but only Miami and UNC have a case to be made that they are a real threat, but I am unconviced that either team can improve their offense enough to get the best of this defense. I thimk a 28ppg average through the ACC slate will be plenty enough to win out in the division, and I dont think that is asking for very much

 

[thebadby2]

Yes we would be. Hopefully we get it going.

So Pitt’s offense scored just 10 points agains the #7 defense, 14 against the #37 defense and 20 points against #64 defense.

If we assume they continue to produce points based on the defensive rankings of future opponents then...

We can expect Pitt’s offense to score around
18 against VT
18 against UNC
21 against Duke
27 against GT
27 against BC
35 against Syracuse

What happens with UFC and Miami?

That’s not the way it works.

the defensive rankings have a lot to do with the opposition to date.

Rhode Island hung 20 on Ohio. Marshall hung 33.

D2 William and Mary hung 17 on UVA, a terrible FSU team hung 24.

Pitt is the only P5 program PSU has played. Buffalo scored more than Pitt. They also rushed for almost 200 and had 450 total yards on them.

 

[PittMiamiRivalry]

I've never seen so much positivity (not on this thread, but in general) surrounding a team that is 1-2 and averaging 14 points per game. People are sincerely talking about winning the Coastal (which, admittedly, is bad). But I think we need to figure out a way to score a 2nd-half touchdown or two first. I get that the Penn State game felt a lot like the Notre Dame game last year, but we better start to mount some offense if we're going to rip off a similar winning streak after it. Right now, it feels like all our games are being played in El Paso.

And we have to avoid the let down that follows the close loss. A blow out loss will set the program on its heels.

 

[#99HUGHgreen]

That’s not the way it works.

the defensive rankings have a lot to do with the opposition to date.

Rhode Island hung 20 on Ohio. Marshall hung 33.

D2 William and Mary hung 17 on UVA, a terrible FSU team hung 24.

Pitt is the only P5 program PSU has played. Buffalo scored more than Pitt. They also rushed for almost 200 and had 450 total yards on them.

Yeah, I was just having a little fun.

I realize that what I was proposing is a bit arbitrary based on the assumption that Pitt continues to score a similar amount of points (like they have been doing) relate to the opponent’s current ranking of their defense.

I can appreciate that a number of variables are going to change every game (home vs away games, a certain team might just match up better, a team has key injuries, team x just gets better, change in play calling, etc) those changed will influence the number of points scored by each team in a game.

 

[McKee Place]

Defenses get much easier by and large the rest of the way. We should see continued improvement including better running, and more scoring. SHOULD see, I say.

As a former (bad) OL I can attest that a new line takes time. I'm a little perplexed they pass block pretty decent, actually. This crew must have some decent good footwork. Great run blocking needs more brute strength and sheer animal drive (I know, because I lacked it!). They must need a bit more of that as well. That is more likely to happen vs the pass blocking though, if any consolation .

 

[cashisking884]

We have the 110th rated offense in the S&P+ and 98th rated ST. That's horribly, horribly bad. And that's adjusting for opponent.

One of the biggest issues is we don't seem to be very efficient. Our running game just can't get the most basic yards needed for a successful play.
And our passing game struggles with that as well.

Even last week when you looked at what was an improved passing game. The problem was we were pretty bad on standard downs if you look at Connelly's advanced stats.
In essence we couldn't do *anything* running on standard downs, and weren't too much better passing on standard downs either. Standard downs is when you should have the most success because that is when the defense can't properly predict what you're going to do based on down and distance.

So Penn State would just allow us to try to pass our way out of the failure on standard downs. And while we had success, the problem is:
1. There wasn't much offensive explosion from the passing game.
2. It's hard to be THAT efficient passing the ball.

So we were behind where the S&P+ says we should be on a particular down. We'd then have to throw our way out of it. But we never threw our way out of it into a big play. Pickett averaged under 7 yards overall, and under 6 on standard downs. So we played the entire game trying to get good but not great gains on 2nd and 3rd down. And just do that over an extended lengthy drive. That's extremely difficult to do. What you end up with is decent passing yardage, but not much points because eventually the drive is going to stall.

Whipple has got to find a way to produce some combination of:

1. Being more successful early in downs when the defense isn't willing to concede yardage to stop the first down.

2. Establish some kind of running game. Either efficient or explosive. But *something*.

3. Explosive plays. We just aren't going to nickel and dime our way down the field. We need big chunk yardage so the offense isn't required to be so perfect on every play.

 

[#99HUGHgreen]

We'll need more than 35 points to beat UCF and we'll need at least 3 TD's in the second half to beat UCF. We can't score in the second half and our coaching staff makes zero halftime adjustments. Not a good formula to beat the toughest team on our schedule this entire year.

Not a good formula indeed.

Personally, I think UCF would beat PSU by at least 3 TDs. We have a good defense - they have a great offense. We have a mediocre offense (though getting a little better maybe) and they have a solid defense.

 

[#99HUGHgreen]

They OL seems incapable of moving anyone off the LOS. Is it bad technique/leverage, lack of strength, inexperience, not the right mentality, everything, I don't know? Not sure how you fix that.

Better recruiting!!!????

 

[DiehardPanther]

Not a good formula indeed.

Personally, I think UFC would beat PSU by at least 3 TDs. We have a good defense - they have a great offense. We have a mediocre offense (though getting a little better maybe) and they have a solid defense.

Is Dana White the HC of that team?

 

[#99HUGHgreen]

Is Dana White the HC of that team?

Why yes he is.

As for UCF, I think they’d beat PSU by 4 TDs.

 

[Franb]

We have the 110th rated offense in the S&P+ and 98th rated ST. That's horribly, horribly bad. And that's adjusting for opponent.

One of the biggest issues is we don't seem to be very efficient. Our running game just can't get the most basic yards needed for a successful play.
And our passing game struggles with that as well.

Even last week when you looked at what was an improved passing game. The problem was we were pretty bad on standard downs if you look at Connelly's advanced stats.
In essence we couldn't do *anything* running on standard downs, and weren't too much better passing on standard downs either. Standard downs is when you should have the most success because that is when the defense can't properly predict what you're going to do based on down and distance.

So Penn State would just allow us to try to pass our way out of the failure on standard downs. And while we had success, the problem is:
1. There wasn't much offensive explosion from the passing game.
2. It's hard to be THAT efficient passing the ball.

So we were behind where the S&P+ says we should be on a particular down. We'd then have to throw our way out of it. But we never threw our way out of it into a big play. Pickett averaged under 7 yards overall, and under 6 on standard downs. So we played the entire game trying to get good but not great gains on 2nd and 3rd down. And just do that over an extended lengthy drive. That's extremely difficult to do. What you end up with is decent passing yardage, but not much points because eventually the drive is going to stall.

Whipple has got to find a way to produce some combination of:

1. Being more successful early in downs when the defense isn't willing to concede yardage to stop the first down.

2. Establish some kind of running game. Either efficient or explosive. But *something*.

3. Explosive plays. We just aren't going to nickel and dime our way down the field. We need big chunk yardage so the offense isn't required to be so perfect on every play.

Excellent analysis. Pitt had 400 yards of offense, no turnovers, but only 10 points. Penn State's 85-yard run was the play of the game, and the difference - they had the big play, otherwise the teams were very much equal.

 

[BFo8]

Had Pitt scored and tied it at 17 (assuming they kicked it) you would’ve seen some real tension on the PSU side on the next possession. That stadium would have been deadly silent and I’m thinking their fans and coaches may have literally been scared shitless.

I would have liked to see how Franklin and his players responded in that situation. I’m thinking it wouldn’t have gone well and more than likely we would’ve got the ball right back again.

Unfortunately we will never know how it would have played out.