Pitt is susceptible

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Rutgers shot 2-17 from three last night at MSU. Guess what. They lost by 15. It happens.

Gonzaga shot their ones 4% worse than normal, their twos 7% worse than normal, and their threes 9% worse than normal last night. But luckily for them, they were playing Loyola Marymount, who isn't very good, and they were playing them at home, where they were on a 75 game winning streak, so I would imagine that they were probably able to still pull out a win.

Wait a second....

 

[joeydavid]

I don't think this is big news for a bubble team but this team has weaknesses which leave it susceptible to losing to really, anybody. To their credit, they've avoided bad losses this year but as we've started the Quad 4 portion of our conference schedule, we must continue to avoid these kind of losses. In fact, our games vs Lou, FSU, BC, and GT might be the most important games left on our schedule because the committee seems to put a lot of emphasis on Quad 4 losses. Now, whether GT or BC at home should really be in the same category as a game vs North Alabama is debatable but it is.

This team, as we know, is not overly talented. They aren’t great defensively, they don't rebound well, and have no inside scoring threat meaning they get very little scoring on layups/easy short range baskets. The team relies heavily on 3 pointers and mid-range jumpers, especially by Burton. In fact, if there was a metric for the reliance on 15+ foot shots, Pitt would probably be near the top. What, this means, obviously is that a bad shooting night means you can lose to anybody and a good shooting night means you can beat anyone. This isnt a team that can overcome a bad shooting night because they dominated the glass or held the team to 52 points like Jamie's old teams. Just need to keep making them.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Again, this isn't rocket science but today was THE example. This team is not built and does not have the personnel to get "easy baskets." Its all 3s and midrange. Nothing inside, no fast breaks. Luckily we rebounded ok but its also a below average defensive team which showed today. When we dont shoot well, we will lose to anyone. We cant overcome an off shooting night by dominating a team on the glass or locking them down defensively or pounding the paint.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Again, this isn't rocket science but today was THE example. This team is not built and does not have the personnel to get "easy baskets." Its all 3s and midrange. Nothing inside, no fast breaks. Luckily we rebounded ok but its also a below average defensive team which showed today. When we dont shoot well, we will lose to anyone. We cant overcome an off shooting night by dominating a team on the glass or locking them down defensively or pounding the paint.

Not many teams are built to get easy baskets because coaches are dumb. What’s your point?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

What’s your point?

His point is that if we don't shoot well we will probably lose.

Some people might think that that is so obvious, for pretty much every team, that it doesn't really need to be said. Not other people.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

His point is that if we don't shoot well we will probably lose.

Some people might think that that is so obvious, for pretty much every team, that it doesn't really need to be said. Not other people.

lol. I think that’s an obvious point. John wall and Demarcus cousins lost to an average WVU team in the elite 8. It is what it is.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

lol. I think that’s an obvious point. John wall and Demarcus cousins lost to an average WVU team in the elite 8. It is what it is.

That was a pretty good WVU team. Kevin Jones and DeSean Butler were elite college players. Going into that game, I thought WVU could win it. I thought their juniors/seniors were as good in a 40 minute college game as the lottery guys

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

His point is that if we don't shoot well we will probably lose.

Some people might think that that is so obvious, for pretty much every team, that it doesn't really need to be said. Not other people.

More like if we dont shoot well, we will definitely lose. Because:

- we cant get easy 2s
- we dont rebound well
- we dont defend that well

Have to hit 3s and mid-range or we really dont have much of a chance vs anyone

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

More like if we dont shoot well, we will definitely lose. Because:

- we cant get easy 2s
- we dont rebound well
- we dont defend that well

Have to hit 3s and mid-range or we really dont have much of a chance vs anyone

We made 25% of our threes, 62% of our two and 92% of our ones today.

We won the Virginia game making 32% of our threes, 50% of our twos and 88% of our ones.

We won the Georgia Tech game making 30% of our threes, 50% of our twos and 85% of our ones.

We won the North Carolina game making 20% of our threes, 63% of our twos and 77% of our ones.

We won the NC State game making 27% of our threes, 59% of our twos and 80% of our ones.

Any other stupid theories you need debunked?

 

[rockypanther]

We made 25% of our threes, 62% of our two and 92% of our ones today.

We won the Virginia game making 32% of our threes, 50% of our twos and 88% of our ones.

We won the Georgia Tech game making 30% of our threes, 50% of our twos and 85% of our ones.

We won the North Carolina game making 20% of our threes, 63% of our twos and 77% of our ones.

We won the NC State game making 27% of our threes, 59% of our twos and 80% of our ones.

Any other stupid theories you need debunked?

Why did we lose today?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Why did we lose today?

If you want to boil it down to just one thing (which would surely be an oversimplification) because our opponent made 50% of their threes. From a team that even after yesterday's performance just barely sneaks into the top 100 in the NCAA in three point shooting percentage.

 

[rockypanther]

If you want to boil it down to just one thing (which would surely be an oversimplification) because our opponent made 50% of their threes. From a team that even after yesterday's performance just barely sneaks into the top 100 in the NCAA in three point shooting percentage.

But that still resulted in a very average 71 points. So I don’t buy that their 3 point shooting is the only reason we lost.

They went 10-20. We went 7-28. So they only made 3 more 3 pters than us. We only took 26 shots in the entire game that were not 3 pointers. That’s only an average of 13 per half. So when you aren’t shooting well you should at some point stop taking 3’s and use your offense to get some better shots.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

But that still resulted in a very average 71 points. So I don’t buy that their 3 point shooting is the only reason we lost.

They went 10-20. We went 7-28. So they only made 3 more 3 pters than us. We only took 26 shots in the entire game that were not 3 pointers. That’s only an average of 13 per half. So when you aren’t shooting well you should at some point stop taking 3’s and use your offense to get some better shots.

We don’t get easy shots. Even when we win and are hot the shots we take are a high degree of difficulty. Almost every game I wait for the bottom to drop out because
A) I’m a Pitt fan
B) how hard the shots we take are

 

[rockypanther]

We don’t get easy shots. Even when we win and are hot the shots we take are a high degree of difficulty. Almost every game I wait for the bottom to drop out because
A) I’m a Pitt fan
B) how hard the shots we take are

A major problem is our offense. The Spanish PnR works so much better of the 5 at the top can pop and shoot or can roll and has offensive skills for a pass off the roll and can finish in the lane. Because we don’t have that threat it is so easy to stop our play by simply switching because Fede is no threat.

But there are still so many things we can do out of Horns, Spanish PnR, and our Zoom but our players don’t move with any intention and they never back cut or really do any cutting of any sort. And we dont set good off the ball screens either. So it’s either we have to get hot from 3 or Burton has to have a great game.

The real problem is when we don’t run any offense at all and get undisciplined for stretches. The only player who can really operate on his own is Burton. Why Capel let Nelly shoot so many 3’s outside of the offense and others as well and didn’t just stick with what we are supposed to do was bad coaching by Capel.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

But that still resulted in a very average 71 points. So I don’t buy that their 3 point shooting is the only reason we lost.

Well who said it was the only reason? Certainly not me.

We had a guy shoot 2-12 from the field, and another shoot 1-6. In the first half, we had two starters and our sixth man combine for something like 2-16 (I'm going off of memory here so I might be off by a shot). Late in the first half, after having only two turnovers the whole half we had turnovers on three possessions in a row, and all three of them were just awful plays. Which seemed to be a theme in the second half as well, turnovers that ended up being really costly. We made some really dumb decisions in the half court, for instance Hinson on the break trying to plow through three defenders rather than kick the ball over to Elliott wide open at the three point line late in the second half.

Is that enough, or do I need to go on?

 

[rockypanther]

We made 25% of our threes, 62% of our two and 92% of our ones today.

We won the Virginia game making 32% of our threes, 50% of our twos and 88% of our ones.

We won the Georgia Tech game making 30% of our threes, 50% of our twos and 85% of our ones.

We won the North Carolina game making 20% of our threes, 63% of our twos and 77% of our ones.

We won the NC State game making 27% of our threes, 59% of our twos and 80% of our ones.

Any other stupid theories you need debunked?

I am just responding to this post you made. You said it was all shooting when he gave 3 valid reasons why we lost.

 

[Pitt2006]

I felt like yesterday, tempo was what killed them. They would kill shot clock and still not get a great shot. Pass it and take a three or drive with hope of foul, but needed something for change of pace. A few misses by FSU would have helped, but it is what it is. Move on and next game up.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I am just responding to this post you made. You said it was all shooting when he gave 3 valid reasons why we lost.

So in other words, you have no idea what "which would surely be an oversimplification" means.

Also note that my post was not in response to what you said, it was in response to the person who said that when we shoot like we did today we "definitely lose" and that "we really dont have much of a chance vs anyone".

And yet I listed multiple examples of games where we shot similarly, or even worse, against better competition, and still managed to win the game.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

We don’t get easy shots. Even when we win and are hot the shots we take are a high degree of difficulty. Almost every game I wait for the bottom to drop out because
A) I’m a Pitt fan
B) how hard the shots we take are

Do we agree on this? As much as I want to believe this team can keep winning, a regression to the mean seems more likely because I don't believe that winning on 3s and mid-range jumpers without getting easy shots is sustainable. We have to have the least amount of layups and dunks in college basketball.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

We have to have the least amount of layups and dunks in college basketball.

Surprise, surprise, that isn't even close to being true.

The school with the smallest percentage of shots at the rim is actually Baylor. Oddly enough, if you check the top 25 you'll find them in it. Other teams that shoot a smaller percentage of shots at the rim than we do include Houston (when you are looking at those rankings you won't have to look far to find them), Wisconsin, Michigan State, Georgetown (OK, that might be a point in your favor!), Purdue (you're going to find them pretty quickly in the rankings too), Ohio State, Notre Dame and, well, Florida State.

 

[TD_6082]

That was a pretty good WVU team. Kevin Jones and DeSean Butler were elite college players. Going into that game, I thought WVU could win it. I thought their juniors/seniors were as good in a 40 minute college game as the lottery guys

That was a brutal loss. It's right up there with the 1984 Georgetown game and the 2015 Wisconsin games as biggest flops in UK history. UK shot like 13% from 3 and they jacked up over 30 of them.

A bit of a trivia: That was current Celtics coach (technically still interim) Joe Mazzulla's first college start.