Pitt v Detroit
- Thread starter KiwiJeff
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Sagarin's ratings (with home court advantage) predicts Pitt by 12. Line shown on ESPN Scoreboard is Pitt by 15.5.
If we win by 12 or less we will look like the pre-season ACC #10, Sagarin's #50 something team that is uNlikely to get an NCAA bid.
If we win by more than 15 we will look like we hope we are--better than #10 ACC and an NCAA tourney team.
And, yes, I know it is only one game and a single game doesn't predict a season. Nevertheless, it will be a data point that may suggest which alternative team we are likely to most resemble.
If we win by 12 or less we will look like the pre-season ACC #10, Sagarin's #50 something team that is uNlikely to get an NCAA bid.
If we win by more than 15 we will look like we hope we are--better than #10 ACC and an NCAA tourney team.
And, yes, I know it is only one game and a single game doesn't predict a season. Nevertheless, it will be a data point that may suggest which alternative team we are likely to most resemble.
FWIW, that 3.5 point team strength spread is roughly the difference on Sagarin's computer ranking between a #55 team and a #30 team. At seasons end #55 teams don't get in due to the automatic bids going to weak conference winners.
I am hoping we win by at least 20. If we are or will become a top 20 level team we should be able to win that convincingly.
You are putting way way way way too much emphasis on one early season game.
Great get!! He was a maniac on the sidelines, too.KenPom suggests also the following possibility of 0.131% happening.
I don't mean any of this to be definitively predictive. Anything from a close loss if we play like a pile of dung to a 40 point win is possible given single game aberrations from whatever the norm should be. I merely suggested what a close game vs a convincing win worthy of a top 20-ish team would give the appearance of to the pollsters--and, for that matter, to the computer rankings as well given that we haven't played a game yet that has impacted the initial computer rankings plus or minus. Given that premise, I would rather we start with a convincing win rather than a struggle the goes on until late in the 2nd half. It will at least make us look better!
Well I would rather we win every game by 20 or more points, but that ain't gonna happen.
It just strikes me as odd that a 12 point win means same old, same old but a 15 point win is a sign of real progress. So Mike Lecak hits a half court buzzer beater and we go from ACC number 10 to an NCAA tourney team? Doesn't seem right to me.
It just strikes me as odd that a 12 point win means same old, same old but a 15 point win is a sign of real progress. So Mike Lecak hits a half court buzzer beater and we go from ACC number 10 to an NCAA tourney team? Doesn't seem right to me.
Maybe not, and certainly not for any single game. But, the computer spread between a #50 team and a #30 team is only an average per game winning margin of about 3 points per game and only about 6 points to about a #10 team and only 10-12 points to the # 1 team.
Just sayin that if what we do vs Detroit should prove over the course of the season to be our average performance vs either something closer to either our best or worst individual game performance we want it to be a win by the margin the NCAA tourney team we hope we are should be expected to win by which is 15 or more vs 12 or less.
If is by 12 or less we will worry that we aren't too good. If by more than 15 we will be hopeful that we are better than last year and on our way to proving the pre-season prognosticators wrong--although neither position will be proven by this single game, because it is only a single game.
Just sayin that if what we do vs Detroit should prove over the course of the season to be our average performance vs either something closer to either our best or worst individual game performance we want it to be a win by the margin the NCAA tourney team we hope we are should be expected to win by which is 15 or more vs 12 or less.
If is by 12 or less we will worry that we aren't too good. If by more than 15 we will be hopeful that we are better than last year and on our way to proving the pre-season prognosticators wrong--although neither position will be proven by this single game, because it is only a single game.
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FYI
their team's best player (and preseason player of the year for Detriot's conference) is suspended indefinitely and is not playing tonight.
Pitt by -20 at least now IMO.
their team's best player (and preseason player of the year for Detriot's conference) is suspended indefinitely and is not playing tonight.
Pitt by -20 at least now IMO.
Saw that. Says he might play. Sucks a lot because Johnson and Wilson are the two guys I want to see the most tonight. As for predictions, yes they have meaning. I want to destroy this team tonight, regardless of who plays or not. Destroying someone looks a lot better than winning by 5 against a midmajor.
Well, they won by 16 despite fizzling away a solid 25 point lead by sloppy 2nd & 3rd team play over the last 4 minutes.
I think they showed me enough last night to make me believe they are (at this point in time) in reality around the #30 team (# 6 or #7 ACC) vs the pre-season pick as around the #50 team (#10 ACC).
I also think that if they can clean-up defensive issues the ceiling is between a #10 to #15 team (top 5 in ACC).
I also think that if they can clean-up defensive issues the ceiling is between a #10 to #15 team (top 5 in ACC).
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