Up 14, go down by 6. If it wasn't the refs, we better learn to defend hard without fouling. When a guy gets hot and the refs won't let you defend him, this is the result. We've got to start eliminating dumb fouls. We are not deep enough to battle through it. We have more big games coming and we aren't going to win them if we are in deep foul trouble like tonight.
*** Pitt vs Wisc - game thread ***
- Thread starter Chairman Moe
- Start date
Up 14 with 6 minutes to go in the 1st Half. 89% win probability. You have to do almost everything wrong or the other team do almost everything right to blow that. I think it was more Wisconsin than us but could anyone stop Tonje? The guy layup'd us to death.
Especially with a devastating injury to an already thin team. To not fade in the stretch like they did would have been miraculous.
Feel like we've seen this kind of movie in the past when one guy just goes off on us.
We really should have had a bigger lead at halftime. I felt we shot ourselves in the foot on a number of possessions, turning it over, and had some with poor shot selection, too. Hope we learn from this one and Dunn isn't out too long. It didn't look good.
And if they miss the free throws, game on. I mean how much time was left? At least 15 seconds.
I'm looking at the box score, and in the second half we went 13-15 on two pointers and 2-13 on threes.
Well when we missed the 3 to cut it down / it pretty much ended it after they broke our press
Wisky going 0-10 from 3 was the anomaly which allowed us to take a lead
I mean - I wish the averages didn’t work out .
We played fairly well but our foul trouble really hurt us. Many herein complaining about the officiating but I didn’t think it was out of line. Maybe a few questionable ones but bottomline, we couldn’t stop them from easily driving to the hoop at will so all those foul calls aren’t unexpected.
And I said ‘them’, more appropriately Tonje. We had no answer for him in the 2 bd half. I thought McGee killed us as well but was surprised when looking at the box score he only had 10 pts. I guess it was his 2 timely 3-ptrs down the stretch that killed are comeback that I’m remembering most.
Also looking at the box score, we actually outshot them overall, 30-60 vs 29-60. And we both only had 5 3’s. So the score difference was at the FT line.
Last note from the box score. Whisky had 54 pts in the 2nd half. Just underscores how we couldn’t stop them from getting to the hoop in that half. You aren’t going to win many games giving up that many pts in a half.
The foul trouble and the injury.
We lost a starter and most of our team was in major foul trouble. You have seen what has happened in past games when we start to go deep into our bench. Especially with Jorge you saw it again today. Even with Cummings. Wisconsin went on scoring runs.
Id have to look at the box score again but I think Delalic pretty much held serve. We got 9 points , 1 rebound, 1 assist, and 1 turnover in only 15 minutes.. And this guy is just coming back from a broken shooting hand and the majority of this board already through him to the wolves because he didnt light the college basketball world on fire coming back from significant injury.
I would have loved to see Kante in this game for defense to protect the interior. But if I was the head coach there is a fear factor. He's a new big that could pick up quick fouls. And Wisconsin is like the best free throw shooting team or close to it in the country.
If we can get Delalic going and Kante up and going before conference play, it will really help later on.
They made a few timely 3’s in the 2nd half but they were only 5-20 for the game. That definitely wasn’t the difference. Their ability to drive to the hoop at will and pass the ball in near the hoop at will was the big difference.
Pitt played hard, but like last couple years if one of top 7 out, it’s gonna be tough. Had bad feeling to start second half when all of sudden refs discovered they had a whistle.
Not gonna get a lot of calls the next 3 games. Dunn was a bummer
Not gonna get a lot of calls the next 3 games. Dunn was a bummer
Earl Walton that used to officiate with the great Pitt villain Jim Burr helped Wisky out considerably. Total BS
23 seconds. Chance of victory is extremely low but lets say they make 1/2 and you make a 3. Now its a 4 point game with 10 seconds. Its college basketball. Players make mistakes. Maybe they turn it over on the inbounds and you make a basket and now its a 2 point game with 4 seconds. Very very little chance we win that game by fouling with 23 seconds but that's too much time left to concede.
I don't think I've ever seen a team pack it in down 6 with 23 seconds. Forget 10 seconds; it could have been a 3 or 4 point game with like 18 seconds left. Could have - not saying would have. Wonder if that was a NET decision.
Agree, weird. Wisc most definitely would have dribble out the clock if they got possession and at that point we could just choose not to foul. But at least take another shot and try to lose by 3-4. Maybe even press the inbounds after a make, and the let them dribble out if you don't get a steal or trap
Totally a net/public perception move. And it worked with voters. 6 pt loss vs 15 for Arizona. Or; maybe not wanting to risk more injuries for a low payoff…
I think the refs were fair .
I also think they were often blowing the whistle for anticipatory fouls on drives
Yea, you have to still try to win the game there even though the chances are like 0.1% It wasnt 0%. Worst-case sceanrio, you lose by 8. That 1 possession in an entire season doesn't make a difference. What makes a difference is if we were down 6 with 2:30 left and started fouling and you lose by 14.
I wouldn't even say the chances were that low. There might actually be stats available that would completely upend this guess, but I'd say like 3%. Guy chokes and misses both free throws (assuming they were in the double bonus); we come down and pop a 3; we get a steal. You just don't know. I've seen teams foul in wayyyy less likely circumstances - to the point of it being annoying.
After losing
or what if they slam it at the end like lsu did? That could have net implications for a 10 point loss.
Pomeroy has a win probability graph for every game. After Wisconsin made the foul shots to go up six with 30 seconds left he had Wisconsin with a 99.5% chance to win. So after Ish missed his three and they got the rebound Pitt's chance to win would have been much, much lower than that. So what, 99.95% or something like that?
3% is clearly way, way too high. If a team down six with 23 seconds left in the game had a 3% chance to win (not even taking into account that we didn't have the ball then) then you'd see a comeback like that pretty much every week. Sometimes multiple times in a week. And yet an actual comeback like that is really rare.
I feel like I do see ESPN do a highlight every week where a team makes an improbable comeback and they say something to the effect of "Now check out with win probably when X team threw that interception... 99.8%!"
Obviously I don't mean literally every week, but it happens often enough to make me question the accuracy at least somewhat. All it takes it one play to completey change those percentages so quickly (I get it: you could say that was factored into the probability to begin with).
Bottom line: I'm not throwing in the towel that early in a two-score game.
I haven't paid much attention to the ESPN numbers in a while, but a couple of us on the football board used to laugh at how comically bad their in game football win percentage numbers were.
If you really want to pull your hair out, I've said this before but at the end of women's basketball games teams just basically don't foul to extend games. It really is weird when you are at a game and there is like 40 seconds left and a team is ahead by four points with the ball, and the other team just falls back and doesn't foul. I can tell you there have been numerous times over the years sitting there at the Pitt women's game that I am sitting in the stands yelling "foul them! you have to foul them!" and they simply don't. Or they let 20 seconds run off the clock and then they foul. I've said before, it's almost like the women's coaches find fouling like that unsporting, so they aren't going to do it.
Rewatched the game. Don't think things were quite as bad as they seemed coming down the stretch.
When it was 60-60 with about 7 minutes left, we were in the zone. Tonje grabbed an OReb on a bad luck bounce, IMO. Austin had him boxed pretty well and the ball just was beyond him. That led to the phantom foul on Tonje. That was a big turning point momentum-wise even though we managed to tie it back up at 62 after that.
We stayed in the zone for 3 total possessions. One led to a turnover. The other was the play above. The last one it seemed like we got sloppy. Jaland ended up letting the dribbler get into the paint, Austin then tried to help leaving McGee open for the corner 3. That was a killer. 65-62.
Austin couldn't handle Tonje. Some of that is credit to Tonje, obviously. But Austin made a bad mistake when he went above instead of under a pick, allowing Tonje to turn the corner and get an easy layup. That made it 67-62.
Wisky had at least 4 key ORebs down the stretch. Two were bad bounces. Two were totally on us. One time we had 4 guys in position for the RB and the Wisky player batted the miss back out to Tonje who went in for another easy 2. There was another where we had 3 guys there for an easy rebound and Corhen had it bounce off him and go out of bounds. Pretty sure Wisky scored after every one of these ORebs.
I thought Jaland fouled too quickly on an inbound play with around 30 seconds left. He should have been looking for a steal there with us down 4. There was enough time to try to turn the ball over before fouling. Instead, he puts them on the line for 2 more. By the way, there was a questionable non-call on that inbound play because McGee ran right into Corhen while trying to get free of Jaland. Cam fell to the floor. I thought it could have been a foul.
Otherwise, we just couldn't hit key shots. GDG had chances for some 3's and just didn't get it done. Jaland missed one. And Ish's attempted 3 toward the end was stupid. We were down 6 with 24 seconds left. We could have gone for an easy 2 to cut it back to 4, but at the least Ish should have looked to pass to a teammate there. His desperation heave was a bad decision.
We also missed some key FT's, while Wisky barely missed any.
Bottom line to me - we lost due to the rebounding/second chances - a couple of which were totally on us - as well as our inability to knock down shots from beyond the arc.
When it was 60-60 with about 7 minutes left, we were in the zone. Tonje grabbed an OReb on a bad luck bounce, IMO. Austin had him boxed pretty well and the ball just was beyond him. That led to the phantom foul on Tonje. That was a big turning point momentum-wise even though we managed to tie it back up at 62 after that.
We stayed in the zone for 3 total possessions. One led to a turnover. The other was the play above. The last one it seemed like we got sloppy. Jaland ended up letting the dribbler get into the paint, Austin then tried to help leaving McGee open for the corner 3. That was a killer. 65-62.
Austin couldn't handle Tonje. Some of that is credit to Tonje, obviously. But Austin made a bad mistake when he went above instead of under a pick, allowing Tonje to turn the corner and get an easy layup. That made it 67-62.
Wisky had at least 4 key ORebs down the stretch. Two were bad bounces. Two were totally on us. One time we had 4 guys in position for the RB and the Wisky player batted the miss back out to Tonje who went in for another easy 2. There was another where we had 3 guys there for an easy rebound and Corhen had it bounce off him and go out of bounds. Pretty sure Wisky scored after every one of these ORebs.
I thought Jaland fouled too quickly on an inbound play with around 30 seconds left. He should have been looking for a steal there with us down 4. There was enough time to try to turn the ball over before fouling. Instead, he puts them on the line for 2 more. By the way, there was a questionable non-call on that inbound play because McGee ran right into Corhen while trying to get free of Jaland. Cam fell to the floor. I thought it could have been a foul.
Otherwise, we just couldn't hit key shots. GDG had chances for some 3's and just didn't get it done. Jaland missed one. And Ish's attempted 3 toward the end was stupid. We were down 6 with 24 seconds left. We could have gone for an easy 2 to cut it back to 4, but at the least Ish should have looked to pass to a teammate there. His desperation heave was a bad decision.
We also missed some key FT's, while Wisky barely missed any.
Bottom line to me - we lost due to the rebounding/second chances - a couple of which were totally on us - as well as our inability to knock down shots from beyond the arc.
I think that was the fear. Make 2, go up 8. Turnover at the other end leads to game-ending dunk. Lose by 10. That's why I hate NET. I still think Pitt had to make the attempt to win. Wis makes 1 out of 2 and you make a 3 and suddenly its a 4 point game with 10 seconds.
Providence was just down 7 with 30-something seconds and almost won it at the end with a good three pointer look.
Gonzaga blew a 5-point lead with 20-something seconds left (I get that WVU having the ball makes it different).
Gonzaga blew a 5-point lead with 20-something seconds left (I get that WVU having the ball makes it different).
I know it's no real comp but considering the WVU and Cincy FB games which were pretty much over, Pitt BB shutting down was a little surprising to me
I have them play it out if just frustrating likely outcome but they run likely 2 end of game live plays
does Wiscy have anyone who doesn't shoot FT well? not many and Tonje and Mcgee and Klesmit are over 90% so it's over but I'd have given someone a chance to clank one on those stiff rims
maybe I'm off but seems there's some disagreement between posters here just to disagree......with some poster/s here
but then imaging we somehow miraculously get to 7-0 on the season......nothing could possibly go wrong from that point for Pitt I am certain
I have them play it out if just frustrating likely outcome but they run likely 2 end of game live plays
does Wiscy have anyone who doesn't shoot FT well? not many and Tonje and Mcgee and Klesmit are over 90% so it's over but I'd have given someone a chance to clank one on those stiff rims
maybe I'm off but seems there's some disagreement between posters here just to disagree......with some poster/s here
but then imaging we somehow miraculously get to 7-0 on the season......nothing could possibly go wrong from that point for Pitt I am certain
