Pitt's narrow path to the NCAAT

[Sean Miller Fan]

As expected, the ACC is completr garbage this year. Only 4 teams in the NET Top 50. 7 teams at 96 or lower. This is a glorified mid-major league + Duke, UNC, UVa. The B12 has 8 teams in the Top 50. B10 has 6 + 51 MSU. SEC has 7.

If we give them 2 Duke losses, we can only lose 3 more games. 4 at most. So this is what it has to be:

@ Syr W
UNC W
@ Lou W
Syr W
@ GT W
@ Miami L
Wake W
ND W
@ NC St W
@ UVa L
Lou W
@ Wake W
VT W
@ Clem L
@ BC W
FSU W

This makes us 23-8/14-6. NET probably in the 40s. Only 1 Q3/4 loss. Q1 wins over UNC and @ NC State. Q2 wins possibly at Syr, Wake, GT.

Just not enough opportunities left. This isnt the old Big East. The ACC 12 is closer to the A10 than the old Big East. Thing is that I think this team is as good as any rando Big 12 or B10 middle of the pack team. We'd win enough Q1/2 games because we'd have enough at-bats. In the ACC, we need to be nearly flawless.

 

[whirlybird optio]

As expected, the ACC is completr garbage this year. Only 4 teams in the NET Top 50. 7 teams at 96 or lower. This is a glorified mid-major league + Duke, UNC, UVa. The B12 has 8 teams in the Top 50. B10 has 6 + 51 MSU. SEC has 7.

If we give them 2 Duke losses, we can only lose 3 more games. 4 at most. So this is what it has to be:

@ Syr W
UNC W
@ Lou W
Syr W
@ GT W
@ Miami L
Wake W
ND W
@ NC St W
@ UVa L
Lou W
@ Wake W
VT W
@ Clem L
@ BC W
FSU W

This makes us 23-8/14-6. NET probably in the 40s. Only 1 Q3/4 loss. Q1 wins over UNC and @ NC State. Q2 wins possibly at Syr, Wake, GT.

Just not enough opportunities left. This isnt the old Big East. The ACC 12 is closer to the A10 than the old Big East. Thing is that I think this team is as good as any rando Big 12 or B10 middle of the pack team. We'd win enough Q1/2 games because we'd have enough at-bats. In the ACC, we need to be nearly flawless.

The horse is dead, long dead. You’ve posted this enough.

Pitt’s best hope, which kind of helped them last year, is to get in the top 5 of the league, and then the committee just can’t leave them out.

Go 8-1 in the remaining home games, go 5-5 in the road games.

That gets you to 13-7. A Net almost certainly higher than we had last season. I think that’s enough.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Should we possibly defeat a team worth it's weight in hay before we start worrying about this? I'm not even convinced we'll be NIT-eligible, yet.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The horse is dead, long dead. You’ve posted this enough.

Pitt’s best hope, which kind of helped them last year, is to get in the top 5 of the league, and then the committee just can’t leave them out.

Go 8-1 in the remaining home games, go 5-5 in the road games.

That gets you to 13-7. A Net almost certainly higher than we had last season. I think that’s enough.

Its possible we can get in at 13-7 but that would depend on who the wins and losses are against. Last year, our good wins overcame our bad NET. If we go 13-7, we would have a decent NET, but probably not enough Q1/2 wins

 

[whirlybird optio]

It’s possible we can get in at 13-7 but that would depend on who the wins and losses are against. Last year, our good wins overcame our bad NET. If we go 13-7, we would have a decent NET, but probably not enough Q1/2 wins

I think we can get Duke at home. We need either that one, or UNC.

Miami’s net being worse than ours surprised me.

 

[DT_PITT]

It’s possible we can get in at 13-7 but that would depend on who the wins and losses are against. Last year, our good wins overcame our bad NET. If we go 13-7, we would have a decent NET, but probably not enough Q1/2 wins

My suggestion is to worry about the 13-7 more than NET!

 

[Parkview57]

Road to The NCAAT

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

The horse is dead, long dead. You’ve posted this enough.

Pitt’s best hope, which kind of helped them last year, is to get in the top 5 of the league, and then the committee just can’t leave them out.

Go 8-1 in the remaining home games, go 5-5 in the road games.

That gets you to 13-7. A Net almost certainly higher than we had last season. I think that’s enough.

This stuff gets so old. Same shit every year by the same posters.

We are in a much better position right now than we were last year at the same time.

It’s a loooooooong season. Some just don’t get it.

 

[TD_6082]

As expected, the ACC is completr garbage this year. Only 4 teams in the NET Top 50. 7 teams at 96 or lower. This is a glorified mid-major league + Duke, UNC, UVa. The B12 has 8 teams in the Top 50. B10 has 6 + 51 MSU. SEC has 7.

If we give them 2 Duke losses, we can only lose 3 more games. 4 at most. So this is what it has to be:

@ Syr W
UNC W
@ Lou W
Syr W
@ GT W
@ Miami L
Wake W
ND W
@ NC St W
@ UVa L
Lou W
@ Wake W
VT W
@ Clem L
@ BC W
FSU W

This makes us 23-8/14-6. NET probably in the 40s. Only 1 Q3/4 loss. Q1 wins over UNC and @ NC State. Q2 wins possibly at Syr, Wake, GT.

Just not enough opportunities left. This isnt the old Big East. The ACC 12 is closer to the A10 than the old Big East. Thing is that I think this team is as good as any rando Big 12 or B10 middle of the pack team. We'd win enough Q1/2 games because we'd have enough at-bats. In the ACC, we need to be nearly flawless.

Why is a 5-3 Duke team deemed unbeatable?

If Pitt is practically eliminated with their path so narrow, should Capel sit his starters so they won't risk injury until the ACC Tournament? 🤔

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

This stuff gets so old. Same shit every year by the same posters.

We are in a much better position right now than we were last year at the same time.

It’s a loooooooong season. Some just don’t get it.

We are in a WAY WORSE position. How can you say that? Yes, we had 3 OOC losses compared to only 2 this year and 2 were blowouts whereas Florida this year was only a semi-blowout. But, we had 2 Q1 wins. I think we only had 4 Q1 wins all year so we already had half of them. Those were absolutely massive. Had we not won just 1 of those games (Miami, UVa, NW, NC St), we would've gotten left out. So last year at this time, we were in much better shape. We needed to go 13-6 (13-5 if you wanted to factor in a Duke loss) the rest of the way, not counting the remaining cupcake games. This year, we need to go 14-5, 14-3 if you figure we are getting swept by Duke.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Why is a 5-3 Duke team deemed unbeatable?

If Pitt is practically eliminated with their path so narrow, should Capel sit his starters so they won't risk injury until the ACC Tournament? 🤔

Because we arent ever going to beat Duke again just like we'll never beat Clemson again. Listen, if you think we'll split with Duke, great. But there aint no way.

And no, Pitt still has a narrow path. Its a good team I still believe and they can get hot. But they have no margin for error.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

We are in a WAY WORSE position. How can you say that? Yes, we had 3 OOC losses compared to only 2 this year and 2 were blowouts whereas Florida this year was only a semi-blowout. But, we had 2 Q1 wins. I think we only had 4 Q1 wins all year so we already had half of them. Those were absolutely massive. Had we not won just 1 of those games (Miami, UVa, NW, NC St), we would've gotten left out. So last year at this time, we were in much better shape. We needed to go 13-6 (13-5 if you wanted to factor in a Duke loss) the rest of the way, not counting the remaining cupcake games. This year, we need to go 14-5, 14-3 if you figure we are getting swept by Duke.

And we are 60 in the NET now. Where were we at this time last year?

We barely got to 60 by the end of last year.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

And we are 60 in the NET now. Where were we at this time last year?

We barely got to 60 by the end of last year.

We were 80 on Dec 4, 2022, 2 days after the NC State win and 67 on Selection Sunday. So we went 14-7 (including ACCT, not including cupcakes) after Dec 4 and only moved up 13 spots. The only reason we got in last year was because we had 4 Q1 wins and to a lesser extent 3 Q2 wins and only 2 Q3/4 losses. The NET, in and of itself, would have eliminated us. But as I said, you can go 2 seed lines up or 2 down from your NET seed line so the quads took us from the NIT to Dayton.

If we look at this year, lets say Pitt goes 13-7, where are their Quad 1 wins going to come from. I realize NETs will change but right now, these are their Quad 1 games

@ UVa
@ Clem
@ Duke
@ NC St
@ Miami

Also, I would think Duke at home will end up being Quad 1 but right now, they are 37. UNC is 32 so them at home could be Q1 also but you cant count on Hubert Davis.

Where are the Q1 wins going to come from? We have 0 now and had 2 at this time last year. We probably need a minimum of 3.

Maybe we can win in Charlottesville like 52-48?

UNC again and hope they become Q1

Miami is a bad matchup but maybe we can split them and NC State?

Basically, we just dont have enough opportunities.

 

[pittjas]

It is so ****ing annoying how SMF makes up these narratives in his head and then talks about them as if they are fact.

 

[Sam Young 23]

Why won't we beat Duke??? Who thought we would beat UNC last year. You never know what a team can't or won't do.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Why won't we beat Duke??? Who thought we would beat UNC last year. You never know what a team can't or won't do.

Did you watch us play Duke last year? Flip might have 80

 

[JS School]

It is so ****ing annoying how SMF makes up these narratives in his head and then talks about them as if they are fact.

You don't believe that SMF knows exactly how the season will play out before the season plays out?

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

You don't believe that SMF knows exactly how the season will play out before the season plays out?

To be fair, sometimes it’s fairly easy to predict college sports. I predicted PSU’s exact football record preseason.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

To be fair, sometimes it’s fairly easy to predict college sports. I predicted PSU’s exact football record preseason.

As did I. Very easy to predict each game correctly for them. Who is going to make the NCAAT from the ACC is also very easy to predict because and I know people hate hearing this but its essentially a mid-major league within a league. The ACC 12 are only going to get 2-3 bids. In a great year, maybe 4. So like you know Clemson is going. You know Miami is going. So its basically between Pitt and NC State for a possible, but not guaranteed 3rd bid. Thr ACC 12 is a little better than a league like the A10 and if you are an A10 fan, you know you need to be near perfect to get an at-large bid

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Updating:

To have a shot (not a lock), need to go:

3-5 in the Q1s (assuming UNC stays in the Top 30 but they usually start tanking)

Need to win 3 of
UNC
2 Duke
@ Clem
@ UVa
@ Miami
@ NC St
@ Wake (they may not stay Q1 though)

10-0 vs the rest
2 Lou
@ BC
Syr
ND
FSU
GT
NC State
VT
Wake

So basically win all the non-Q1 home games and beat Lou and BC on the road

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

Updating:

To have a shot (not a lock), need to go:

3-5 in the Q1s (assuming UNC stays in the Top 30 but they usually start tanking)

Need to win 3 of
UNC
2 Duke
@ Clem
@ UVa
@ Miami
@ NC St
@ Wake (they may not stay Q1 though)

10-0 vs the rest
2 Lou
@ BC
Syr
ND
FSU
GT
NC State
VT
Wake

So basically win all the non-Q1 home games and beat Lou and BC on the road

Either we play better and give ourselves a shot or we don’t. We will probably win a few that we don’t think we will and we will likely lose one or two bad ones as well.

That is just where this team is. We are a nice, better than average team, but we may not make the tourney. That is reality and where this team is right now. If we continue to grow and get better, we have a shot.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Either we play better and give ourselves a shot or we don’t. We will probably win a few that we don’t think we will and we will likely lose one or two bad ones as well.

That is just where this team is. We are a nice, better than average team, but we may not make the tourney. That is reality and where this team is right now. If we continue to grow and get better, we have a shot.

Agreed. We are a big man away from making the NCAAT. Disappointing

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

In the grand scheme of things, tomorrow isn’t a must win. But it’s a well we probably should win, now.

 

[NCanton Panther]

Updating:

To have a shot (not a lock), need to go:

3-5 in the Q1s (assuming UNC stays in the Top 30 but they usually start tanking)

Need to win 3 of
UNC
2 Duke
@ Clem
@ UVa
@ Miami
@ NC St
@ Wake (they may not stay Q1 though)

10-0 vs the rest
2 Lou
@ BC
Syr
ND
FSU
GT
NC State
VT
Wake

So basically win all the non-Q1 home games and beat Lou and BC on the road

We better win more than 3 from your 1st category because we likely aren’t going 10-0 against your 2nd category.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Either we play better and give ourselves a shot or we don’t.

Play better.

That's it. That's the path to the NCAA tournament. Play better. If we play better we have a chance. If we don't then we don't.

If we play better the rest of it will fall into place.

 

[Pitt2006]

This should be renamed path to NIT. Right now Pitt is projected 3 seed. Last year Capel was able to tweak roster after early blowouts and found gold. He can’t compensate this year and just doesn’t have the players. They aren’t awful but not great and not enough ops left. Short of an ACC tourney conf win run, they are NIT bound.

 

[Cap pitt]

As narrow as pitts football teams path to a bowl

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Updating:

To have a shot (not a lock), need to go:

3-5 in the Q1s (assuming UNC stays in the Top 30 but they usually start tanking)

Need to win 3 of
UNC
2 Duke
@ Clem
@ UVa
@ Miami
@ NC St
@ Wake (they may not stay Q1 though)

10-0 vs the rest
2 Lou
@ BC
Syr
ND
FSU
GT
NC State
VT
Wake

So basically win all the non-Q1 home games and beat Lou and BC on the road

Updating:

Got the 1 Q1 over Duke. Lost to UNC and Duke. Probably need to go 3-2 @ Miami, @ UVa, @ Clem, @ NC St, @ Wake

The home loss to Syr is a killer. That necessitates the extra win we need above. Need to go 7-0 in the remaining home game and also win at BC.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

 

[Pitt2006]

A Q2 home loss is not a killer. A loss to ND or Lville would be at this point.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

They’re 3-5 in conference and may have finally figured things out. Just enjoy the young guards and in a few weeks if they’re still on a roll figure this out. If they win enough, it’ll take care of itself re: the quads.

 

[JS School]

Because we arent ever going to beat Duke again just like we'll never beat Clemson again. Listen, if you think we'll split with Duke, great. But there aint no way.

The Great Proclaimator at his best.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The Great Proclaimator at his best.

They were missing 2 starters. Still a great win but not having Mitchell was pretty huge. And Roach can make plays. Playing Ryan Young and Blake is a massive drop off.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

They were missing 2 starters. Still a great win but not having Mitchell was pretty huge. And Roach can make plays. Playing Ryan Young and Blake is a massive drop off.

So let me guess, you will not proclaim this as an L despite taking a huge L because theres an asterisk. UCF just scored again on WVU btw

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

So let me guess, you will not proclaim this as an L despite taking a huge L because theres an asterisk. UCF just scored again on WVU btw

Correct. Too many injuries. Pitt can beat the Warriors too if they are missing their Top 15 players.

Similarly, we will never beat Clemson again unless they are missing key players. You guys dont understand injuries.

 

[JS School]

They were missing 2 starters. Still a great win but not having Mitchell was pretty huge. And Roach can make plays. Playing Ryan Young and Blake is a massive drop off.

I must have missed the caveats in your prediction. Injuries happen to teams every day. Your prediction was that there "ain't no way" that Pitt splits with Duke. But Pitt split with Duke.

 

[JS School]

. You guys dont understand injuries.

We understand injuries. We also understand excuses.

Don't worry about it, though. The reputation for hoops knowledge that you invented for yourself isn't as important to the rest of us as you think.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Correct. Too many injuries. Pitt can beat the Warriors too if they are missing their Top 15 players.

Similarly, we will never beat Clemson again unless they are missing key players. You guys dont understand injuries.

the buses don't run where you live. we beat duke. end of story. another L for the king of them

 

[HailToPitt1985]

Looking at the upcoming schedule, I think if we beat 4 of the next 6 opponents, we'll start to get in better shape to get into any tournament. I think it's a long shot for the NCAAT, but you never know. The NIT is possible if we can get to 19 or 20 total wins somehow. We need to beat Miami and WF to get started first.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Looking at the upcoming schedule, I think if we beat 4 of the next 6 opponents, we'll start to get in better shape to get into any tournament. I think it's a long shot for the NCAAT, but you never know. The NIT is possible if we can get to 19 or 20 total wins somehow. We need to beat Miami and WF to get started first.

Just win the next one, then the next one then the next one....

once you start to get a few games above .500 in conference then we can start worrying about the rest. It will fall into place if you keep winning.