Pitt's path to the NCAAT

[Sean Miller Fan]

Hear me out.

Need to go 11-9 to be in that Last 4 In/First 4 out. The NET would be good. The non-con SOS will be really good. We'd have 0 Q3/4 losses. That's huge

We play all of the worst teams at home. We should go 5-0 vs UVa, Miami, BC, Syr, GT.

Need 3 more wins to be on bubble. 4 more to be guaranteed.

UNC
@ UNC
@ Syr
@ Wake
@ SMU
@ ND
@ Lou
@ NC St

Lets say we win our next 2 @ Syr and vs UNC. We'd need to go 1-6 @ Wake, @ SMU, @UNC, @ ND, @ Lou, @ NC St for Dayton. 2-5 for a guarantee. This isnt impossible.

I dont think anyone understands how easy the back-end of our schedule is. We are 0-3 vs the ACC's Top 3. We only have 1 game remaining of 13 vs a guaranteed NCAAT team (@ Lou). Every other game is winnable.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Now hear me out. We fire Capel and hope to one day assemble a team whose absolute ceiling isn't merely sneaking into the tournament via a side door left ajar.

 

[MorningCoffee13]

You said we have no chance with a loss.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

You said we have no chance with a loss.

That is my preduction. I dont think we will make it. That doesnt mean that I cant root for it.

 

[OhioPanther99]

I don't think there's a single guarantee on the schedule with this group. Also, I'm not sure the committee is going to bump us up with beating the crap of the league (which, unfortunately, Pitt might be a part of)

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I don't think there's a single guarantee on the schedule with this group. Also, I'm not sure the committee is going to bump us up with beating the crap of the league (which, unfortunately, Pitt might be a part of)

We play 5 really bad teams at home. We have lost to 3 really good teams + FSU.

Hypothetical resume
20-11
NET: 45
0 Q3/4 losses
2 Q1 wins (@ OSU, say @ UNC)
4 Q2 wins (WVU, LSU, Stan, say @ NC St)
Non-con SOS: 53. Last year's was 343

 

[pittizit]

They are NOT going to the tournament
18 wins tops

 

[OhioPanther99]

We play 5 really bad teams at home. We have lost to 3 really good teams + FSU.

Hypothetical resume
20-11
NET: 45
0 Q3/4 losses
2 Q1 wins (@ OSU, say @ UNC)
4 Q2 wins (WVU, LSU, Stan, say @ NC St)
Non-con SOS: 53. Last year's was 343

Where would that put Pitt in the ACC standings?

That really doesn't look like a strong resume. Especially this year in the weak ACC.

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

You said we have no chance with a loss.

This post now covers both bases. He’ll be back to crow regardless and hope nobody remembers.

 

[Thee Jackie Treehorn]

Where would that put Pitt in the ACC standings?

That really doesn't look like a strong resume. Especially this year in the weak ACC.

Yeah, I'm not convinced 11-9 gets us in, with ACC wins only over teams not in the tournament field. Our non-conference was strong enough, but that's not enough to carry us. We would need to do more.

 

[Pittnerski]

13-7 is the number

 

[PittPoker]

Hear me out.

Need to go 11-9 to be in that Last 4 In/First 4 out. The NET would be good. The non-con SOS will be really good. We'd have 0 Q3/4 losses. That's huge

We play all of the worst teams at home. We should go 5-0 vs UVa, Miami, BC, Syr, GT.

Need 3 more wins to be on bubble. 4 more to be guaranteed.

UNC
@ UNC
@ Syr
@ Wake
@ SMU
@ ND
@ Lou
@ NC St

Lets say we win our next 2 @ Syr and vs UNC. We'd need to go 1-6 @ Wake, @ SMU, @UNC, @ ND, @ Lou, @ NC St for Dayton. 2-4 for a guarantee. This isnt impossible.

I dont think anyone understands how easy the back-end of our schedule is. We are 0-3 vs the ACC's Top 3. We only have 1 game remaining of 13 vs a guaranteed NCAAT team (@ Lou). Every other game is winnable.

They have no path. They'll lose more games the rest of the season than they'll win. They stink.

 

[DT_PITT]

Hear me out.

Need to go 11-9 to be in that Last 4 In/First 4 out. The NET would be good. The non-con SOS will be really good. We'd have 0 Q3/4 losses. That's huge

We play all of the worst teams at home. We should go 5-0 vs UVa, Miami, BC, Syr, GT.

Need 3 more wins to be on bubble. 4 more to be guaranteed.

UNC
@ UNC
@ Syr
@ Wake
@ SMU
@ ND
@ Lou
@ NC St

Lets say we win our next 2 @ Syr and vs UNC. We'd need to go 1-6 @ Wake, @ SMU, @UNC, @ ND, @ Lou, @ NC St for Dayton. 2-4 for a guarantee. This isnt impossible.

I dont think anyone understands how easy the back-end of our schedule is. We are 0-3 vs the ACC's Top 3. We only have 1 game remaining of 13 vs a guaranteed NCAAT team (@ Lou). Every other game is winnable.

Believe it or not I kind of agree. It starts at the Dome on Sat.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

This post now covers both bases. He’ll be back to crow regardless and hope nobody remembers.

Yep, now no matter what happens he was right.

"I told you if we lost to Clemson we'd be out."

"I told you after we lost the Clemson game that we could still make it."

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yep, now no matter what happens he was right.

"I told you if we lost to Clemson we'd be out."

"I told you after we lost the Clemson game that we could still make it."

Basically, yes.

My prediction is that we wont make the NCAA Tournament. However, very very rarely I'm wrong so I am hoping this to be the case. I am going to continue to watch the games hoping they can prove me wrong and win some games that I no longer think they can win. I am merely pointing out what our path is and that its not impossible even though I personally do not think we will get there.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Where would that put Pitt in the ACC standings?

ACC placement is irrelevant. Not even on the team sheet. We are last year's Clemson. They went 11-9 and finished tied for 5th but were very safely in as a 6th seed because their non-con was very good.

 

[whirlybird optio]

ACC placement is irrelevant. Not even on the team sheet. We are last year's Clemson. They went 11-9 and finished tied for 5th but were very safely in as a 6th seed because their non-con was very good.

I think we get in at 11-9, I think we are close to a lock at 12-8.

I’m basically counting the games @UL, @Wake, and @SMU as losses.

So, if we drop those 3, we have to go 8-2 or 9-1 in the other 10.

So we have to beat UNC at least once and sweep the rest.

I just don’t think we will win all of the other 3 road games against bad teams (ND, NC St, Cuse).

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

However, very very rarely I'm wrong

Yeah, it only happens once every two or three minutes.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think we get in at 11-9, I think we are close to a lock at 12-8.

I’m basically counting the games @UL, @Wake, and @SMU as losses.

So, if we drop those 3, we have to go 8-2 or 9-1 in the other 10.

So we have to beat UNC at least once and sweep the rest.

I just don’t think we will win all of the other 3 road games against bad teams (ND, NC St, Cuse).

11-9 and we have a good shot. Depends on other bubble happenings. 12-8 is a guaranteed lock, not even Dayton.

Here's what I think we do

@ Syr - L, Starling is back and I have a bad feeling

UNC - W

@ Wake - L

UVa - W

@ SMU - L

@ UNC - W, UNC is a good matchup. No bigs. No shooters besides RJ

Miami - W

Syr - W

@ ND - L, wont guard their 3s

GT - W

@ Lou - L

@ NC St - L

BC - W

10-10

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think we get in at 11-9, I think we are close to a lock at 12-8.

I’m basically counting the games @UL, @Wake, and @SMU as losses.

So, if we drop those 3, we have to go 8-2 or 9-1 in the other 10.

So we have to beat UNC at least once and sweep the rest.

I just don’t think we will win all of the other 3 road games against bad teams (ND, NC St, Cuse).

Need to beat the 5 bad teams at home and UNC at home. Then, if you count UL, Wake, SMU as losses, then you need to win 2 or 3 games @ Syr, @ UNC, @ ND, @ NC St. The good news is we'll have a pretty good idea after these next 2. If we win at Syr and home vs UNC, its really not impossible to beat the 5 bad teams at home and then say go 1-2 @ UNC, @ ND, @ NC St. That gets you to 11-9 and with 1 win in ACCT and WVU looking like a natty contender with me and you playing for them, that could get us in.

 

[Blair_45]

The good news is despite the 4 straight losses Bracket Matrix still has Pitt in 68 Brackets currently ranked between an 8-11 seed. I think the loss to Clemson though was it and their margin of error moving forward here is not gonna be much if Pitt doesn’t want to be on the outside looking in of the tournament. This team now has a week off to regroup and hit the reset button before the game at Syracuse next Saturday and then the North Carolina game at home 3 days later.

Pitt really needs to win both of these games just to get back on track and get some confidence heading into February. Pitt still has some good opportunities in front of them these next 2-3 weeks to get some Quad 1 and Quad 2 road wins playing at Wake,UNC, and SMU and put this 4 game losing streak behind them and get back on the safe side of the brackets. I think it has to start with these next 2 games at Syracuse and at home to North Carolina after this week layoff. If Pitt somehow loses both of these games which is very possible at this point they are gonna face a huge uphill battle to make the NCAA tournament the final 10-11 games of the season .

 

[curtis0620]

Don’t turn down the NIT bid

 

[OhioPanther99]

The good news is despite the 4 straight losses Bracket Matrix still has Pitt in 68 Brackets currently ranked between an 8-11 seed. I think the loss to Clemson though was it and their margin of error moving forward here is not gonna be much if Pitt doesn’t want to be on the outside looking in of the tournament. This team now has a week off to regroup and hit the reset button before the game at Syracuse next Saturday and then the North Carolina game at home 3 days later.

Pitt really needs to win both of these games just to get back on track and get some confidence heading into February. Pitt still has some good opportunities in front of them these next 2-3 weeks to get some Quad 1 and Quad 2 road wins playing at Wake,UNC, and SMU and put this 4 game losing streak behind them and get back on the safe side of the brackets. I think it has to start with these next 2 games at Syracuse and at home to North Carolina after this week layoff. If Pitt somehow loses both of these games which is very possible at this point they are gonna face a huge uphill battle to make the NCAA tournament the final 10-11 games of the season .

A lot of "ifs" in your post. What have you seen lately from this group to make you feel at all comfortable?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The good news is despite the 4 straight losses Bracket Matrix still has Pitt in 68 Brackets currently ranked between an 8-11 seed. I think the loss to Clemson though was it and their margin of error moving forward here is not gonna be much if Pitt doesn’t want to be on the outside looking in of the tournament. This team now has a week off to regroup and hit the reset button before the game at Syracuse next Saturday and then the North Carolina game at home 3 days later.

Pitt really needs to win both of these games just to get back on track and get some confidence heading into February. Pitt still has some good opportunities in front of them these next 2-3 weeks to get some Quad 1 and Quad 2 road wins playing at Wake,UNC, and SMU and put this 4 game losing streak behind them and get back on the safe side of the brackets. I think it has to start with these next 2 games at Syracuse and at home to North Carolina after this week layoff. If Pitt somehow loses both of these games which is very possible at this point they are gonna face a huge uphill battle to make the NCAA tournament the final 10-11 games of the season .

Bracket Matrix wasnt updated since Friday. That said, we were ahead of 13 teams and some of those teams, like UNC, had worse losses than we had. We will still be "in" on the next update.

 

[Blair_45]

A lot of "ifs" in your post. What have you seen lately from this group to make you feel at all comfortable?

I think this team still has enough on offense to be a good team and win games in the tournament if they get the right matchup. Their defense I think is the problem. Teams are shooting 50-60 percent in these last 4 losses and that just can’t happen if you expect to win games consistently and be a tournament team. I’m still encouraged somewhat because I still think they are in better shape this year then they were last year this time when they won at Duke about a year ago and went on the end of season run but still missed the tournament. Their SOS schedule is much better and they have more quality wins this year then they did last year this time with an opportunity coming up here as I mentioned in the next 3 weeks or so to get a bunch of Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins on the road. I think 9-4 or even 8-5 the last 13 games gets them in the tournament pretty safely. Looking at their remaining schedule they should be able to do that.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

Just sitting back and trying to absorb all of this, I am kind of optimistic about our chances. Considering that we played only 5 or 6 good minutes of defense yesterday and still almost won the game against a top 2 ACC team, this team can win the 10 games necessary before the end of the year to be in. But the big IF is if they play that kind of defense for most of the remaining games. That is yet to be seen. It starts Saturday. We can't take any of the remaining games for granted.

 

[Bethlehemjohn]

I think we get in at 11-9, I think we are close to a lock at 12-8.

I’m basically counting the games @UL, @Wake, and @SMU as losses.

So, if we drop those 3, we have to go 8-2 or 9-1 in the other 10.

So we have to beat UNC at least once and sweep the rest.

I just don’t think we will win all of the other 3 road games against bad teams (ND, NC St, Cuse).

I think we end up 12-8 and this gets us in.

 

[Cavalier Panther]

These are largely reasonable and data driven takes. The bubble is always weak and every team has warts. It will likely be even weaker this year than last given the bid-stealers last year. And our non-con resume is much stronger.

But for us fans who actually watch the games and see the wide open threes, poor shot selection and lackluster offense, it can be easy to get down. Losing to FSU made it feel like we'd never win another game. I'm sure we will, it's just hard to expect that we'll dig deep to win the close ones. Hope this week off to tune up against a bad Cuse team lets us regroup.

 

[gary2]

I think we end up 12-8 and this gets us in.

Agree

 

[OhioPanther99]

Agree

I think this group needs a lot of soul searching before 12-8 is a possibility. I feel like a year 1/2 collapse is really close to happening. Like those teams, this group doesn't have any leadership. Playing "ball hog" with the two guards to not likely to provide much team success, and will more likely put a deeper divide with the team. Not quite as bad as sleeping with a teammate's girl, but close.

 

[gary2]

I think this group needs a lot of soul searching before 12-8 is a possibility. I feel like a year 1/2 collapse is really close to happening. Like those teams, this group doesn't have any leadership. Playing "ball hog" with the two guards to not likely to provide much team success, and will more likely put a deeper divide with the team. Not quite as bad as sleeping with a teammate's girl, but close.

I don't see signs of resentment. I think the team has recognized and accepted who the dogs are.

Capel needs to do a better job of training and controlling the dogs.