Playoff Field is much clearer now

[UPitt '89]

If Alabama beats Florida and Clemson beats UNC:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. MSU/Iowa winner

If Alabama or Clemson lose..... Ohio State will sneak in.

If *BOTH* Alabama and Clemson lose.... Ohio State and UNC will sneak in.

No other team can make the playoffs now. Ohio State will be rooting hard for UNC and Florida....otherwise, the Buckeyes won't have an opportunity to defend their title.

 

[Pittx9]

Oh geez. I mean Ohio State has always been incredibly lucky. But they can't possibly be lucky enough to sneak in this year can they?

 

[wbrpanther]

If Alabama beats Florida and Clemson beats UNC:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. MSU/Iowa winner

If Alabama or Clemson lose..... Ohio State will sneak in.

If *BOTH* Alabama and Clemson lose.... Ohio State and UNC will sneak in.

No other team can make the playoffs now. Ohio State will be rooting hard for UNC and Florida....otherwise, the Buckeyes won't have an opportunity to defend their title.

Serious question. Say UNC beats Clemson in a tight OT game. Are you dropping a one loss Clemson completely out and putting a one loss tOSU in, even though that loss was to Clemson. Any chance in this scenario that Clemson doesn't drop the whole way out of the playoffs. I can see a good case for having 2 ACC teams [UNC and Clemson] in instead of 2 BIG teams.

 

[whirlybird optio]

If Alabama beats Florida and Clemson beats UNC:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. MSU/Iowa winner

If Alabama or Clemson lose..... Ohio State will sneak in.

If *BOTH* Alabama and Clemson lose.... Ohio State and UNC will sneak in.

No other team can make the playoffs now. Ohio State will be rooting hard for UNC and Florida....otherwise, the Buckeyes won't have an opportunity to defend their title.

I tend to agree, although if both Clemson and Bama lost, I would think it would be VERY close between UNC and Stanford for that last spot, if Stanford wins in the PAC-12 title game. I think UNC would sneak in, but their OOC schedule was awful.

The big result for pitt today was FSU winning. I think ND will go to either Fiesta or Peach, FSU to Peach Bowl.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Serious question. Say UNC beats Clemson in a tight OT game. Are you dropping a one loss Clemson completely out and putting a one loss tOSU in, even though that loss was to Clemson. Any chance in this scenario that Clemson doesn't drop the whole way out of the playoffs. I can see a good case for having 2 ACC teams [UNC and Clemson] in instead of 2 BIG teams.

Zero chance ACC gets two teams. Zero. Way more likely ACC would get totally shut out and Stanford jumps into playoff than 2 ACC teams getting in.

 

[Pittx9]

Zero chance ACC gets two teams. Zero. Way more likely ACC would get totally shut out and Stanford jumps into playoff than 2 ACC teams getting in.

I think you are right about that, but I think that would be incredibly wrong for them to do.

 

[UPitt '89]

Serious question. Say UNC beats Clemson in a tight OT game. Are you dropping a one loss Clemson completely out and putting a one loss tOSU in, even though that loss was to Clemson. Any chance in this scenario that Clemson doesn't drop the whole way out of the playoffs. I can see a good case for having 2 ACC teams [UNC and Clemson] in instead of 2 BIG teams.

I agree with you..... but if MSU beats Iowa.... then Ohio State's only loss is to another playoff team by a last second FG. And the last time the committee saw Ohio State, it was them thumping Michigan *AT* Michigan.

I think that if Clemson loses.... Ohio State sneaks ahead of them. If Clemson *AND* Alabama lose.... I think Ohio State is in solidly.... and then the last spot would be Clemson or UNC, and the head to head will go to UNC.

Here's what the standings will be on Tuesday, assuming Oklahoma continues to kill OkSt as they are right now:


1. Oklahoma
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Iowa
5. Michigan State
6. Ohio State
7. Stanford
8. UNC
9. Notre Dame
10. Florida State

Nice that the ACC will have 3 top 10 teams, plus Notre Dame kinda as a 4th.

 

[whirlybird optio]

I think you are right about that, but I think that would be incredibly wrong for them to do.

I think today was a very good day for the ACC. FSU wins over SEC. Clemson over SEC. Louisville over SEC.

But, that Stanford win will have a lot of cache. I think anyone watching would realize that those were two really good teams. I just don't know if UNC, even if they beat Clemson, would make it. Playing two FCS teams won't help.

 

[Pittx9]

I agree with you..... but if MSU beats Iowa.... then Ohio State's only loss is to another playoff team by a last second FG. And the last time the committee saw Ohio State, it was them thumping Michigan *AT* Michigan.

I think you're right, but there is one problem with that and why I don't think Ohio State should really have a chance. They will not look at OSU/MSU and say well it was terrible weather conditions so OSU might have played better on a better day. They will look at the game though and see that Michigan State was without their star starting QB. So Ohio State yeah lost to Michigan State (in this theory a playoff team), but it was a weakened Michigan State team. I'd think they should look at that and think that if Michigan State were full strength, they would convincingly beat Ohio State. They probably would pick Ohio State, but I would not agree at all.

 

[whirlybird optio]

I agree with you..... but if MSU beats Iowa.... then Ohio State's only loss is to another playoff team by a last second FG. And the last time the committee saw Ohio State, it was them thumping Michigan *AT* Michigan.

I think that if Clemson loses.... Ohio State sneaks ahead of them. If Clemson *AND* Alabama lose.... I think Ohio State is in solidly.... and then the last spot would be Clemson or UNC, and the head to head will go to UNC.

Here's what the standings will be on Tuesday, assuming Oklahoma continues to kill OkSt as they are right now:


1. Oklahoma
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Iowa
5. Michigan State
6. Ohio State
7. Stanford
8. UNC
9. Notre Dame
10. Florida State

Nice that the ACC will have 3 top 10 teams, plus Notre Dame kinda as a 4th.

Why would UNC jump FSU? They were behind them last week, and FSU won a game against a top 12 team on the road. I think UNC will still be behind Stanford, FSU, possibly ND.

 

[UPitt '89]

The best thing in the world that could happen would be for Florida to somehow beat Alabama.

That would undoubtedly mean the SEC gets shut out of the playoff. No way a 2-loss Florida team, even with a win over Alabama, would jump high enough to make the playoff.

That would be delicious. Won't happen, because Alabama will absolutely thump Florida..... but if it did...........

 

[Pittx9]

I think today was a very good day for the ACC. FSU wins over SEC. Clemson over SEC. Louisville over SEC.

But, that Stanford win will have a lot of cache. I think anyone watching would realize that those were two really good teams. I just don't know if UNC, even if they beat Clemson, would make it. Playing two FCS teams won't help.

It really is a tough situation. I personally would say Carolina beating Clemson though would be the most impressive win any team could claim. So if Carolina beats Clemson, if at least Carolina does not get in over Ohio State or Stanford, I would say that is incredibly wrong. At that point, I think Stanford may have an argument with Clemson, but even that would be tough to pick Stanford. It's looking pretty clear now, but a major upset or two next week could royally screw things up.

 

[UPitt '89]

Why would UNC jump FSU? They were behind them last week, and FSU won a game against a top 12 team on the road. I think UNC will still be behind Stanford, FSU, possibly ND.

Because UNC would've beaten the #1 team in the country on a Neutral field. That trumps Stanford beating USC at home in the P12 title game.

And UNC would have beaten BOTH of the teams that beat FSU this year, so they would be ahead of FSU.

 

[wbrpanther]

I agree with you..... but if MSU beats Iowa.... then Ohio State's only loss is to another playoff team by a last second FG. And the last time the committee saw Ohio State, it was them thumping Michigan *AT* Michigan.

I think that if Clemson loses.... Ohio State sneaks ahead of them. If Clemson *AND* Alabama lose.... I think Ohio State is in solidly.... and then the last spot would be Clemson or UNC, and the head to head will go to UNC.

Here's what the standings will be on Tuesday, assuming Oklahoma continues to kill OkSt as they are right now:


1. Oklahoma
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Iowa
5. Michigan State
6. Ohio State
7. Stanford
8. UNC
9. Notre Dame
10. Florida State

Nice that the ACC will have 3 top 10 teams, plus Notre Dame kinda as a 4th.

I agree with you..... but if MSU beats Iowa.... then Ohio State's only loss is to another playoff team by a last second FG. And the last time the committee saw Ohio State, it was them thumping Michigan *AT* Michigan.

I think that if Clemson loses.... Ohio State sneaks ahead of them. If Clemson *AND* Alabama lose.... I think Ohio State is in solidly.... and then the last spot would be Clemson or UNC, and the head to head will go to UNC.

Here's what the standings will be on Tuesday, assuming Oklahoma continues to kill OkSt as they are right now:


1. Oklahoma
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Iowa
5. Michigan State
6. Ohio State
7. Stanford
8. UNC
9. Notre Dame
10. Florida State

Nice that the ACC will have 3 top 10 teams, plus Notre Dame kinda as a 4th.

If UNC beats Clemson and MSU beats Iowa there is going to be a whole shitload of one loss teams. Start out by eliminating 2 loss Stanford, 2 loss FSU and 2 loss ND. That leaves 7 of the top 10 with one loss. A case could be made for any of those teams to be in and the committee won't necessarily take the top 4 as they stand after this tuesday. It will be total chaos and the 3 one loss teams that don't get in will be howling.

 

[UPitt '89]

If UNC beats Clemson and MSU beats Iowa there is going to be a whole shitload of one loss teams. Start out by eliminating 2 loss Stanford, 2 loss FSU and 2 loss ND. That leaves 7 of the top 10 with one loss. A case could be made for any of those teams to be in and the committee won't necessarily take the top 4 as they stand after this tuesday. It will be total chaos and the 3 one loss teams that don't get in will be howling.

In that case.... the committee would take the 4 conference champions that would have one loss.... MSU, Oklahoma, UNC, and Alabama. Or they would leave out UNC and take Ohio State.

Last year, the committee put a premium on being a conference champion. If they follow that this year, then the choice is clear.... all of the P5 champions except for 2-loss Stanford.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Because UNC would've beaten the #1 team in the country on a Neutral field. That trumps Stanford beating USC at home in the P12 title game.

And UNC would have beaten BOTH of the teams that beat FSU this year, so they would be ahead of FSU.

I get that, but you said on Tuesday that UNC would be ahead of FSU. I'm saying that this week, UNC won't be ahead. If UNC wins out...they'll either be 4 or 5. This week, I have them at 10th.

 

[wbrpanther]

Zero chance ACC gets two teams. Zero. Way more likely ACC would get totally shut out and Stanford jumps into playoff than 2 ACC teams getting in.

I'm not so sure about that. Clemson has been the consensus #1 all year and I think a lot of people are on board right now in thinking UNC is better than Iowa or MSU. I am not saying the ACC will get two under these circumstances but never say zero chance.

 

[UPitt '89]

I get that, but you said on Tuesday that UNC would be ahead of FSU. I'm saying that this week, UNC won't be ahead. If UNC wins out...they'll either be 4 or 5. This week, I have them at 10th.

Ok. I see what you're saying.

I think I have the top 7 correct... but the 8 through 10 might be a bit different. In any case..... Ohio State will be *BIG* Gator and Tarheel fans this week.

 

[UPitt '89]

I'm not so sure about that. Clemson has been the consensus #1 all year and I think a lot of people are on board right now in thinking UNC is better than Iowa or MSU. I am not saying the ACC will get two under these circumstances but never say zero chance.

Nobody considers UNC better than MSU right now. People might think they're better than Iowa... but nobody seriously would have UNC ahead of MSU.

One could argue that MSU has the most impressive resume of all the 1-loss teams.... won at Michigan... won at Ohio State.... beat Oregon.

No other team can claim two road wins like Michigan and Ohio State.

 

[wbrpanther]

In that case.... the committee would take the 4 conference champions that would have one loss.... MSU, Oklahoma, UNC, and Alabama. Or they would leave out UNC and take Ohio State.

Last year, the committee put a premium on being a conference champion. If they follow that this year, then the choice is clear.... all of the P5 champions except for 2-loss Stanford.

That would be the easiest way for the committee to go. No way can I see them leaving out UNC, who just beat a team the Buckeyes couldn't.

 

[Pittx9]

If the ACC Champ is not in the playoffs (whoever that may be), they need to seriously think about next year only allowing conference champs in. No way Ohio State should get in ahead of a conference champ this season. Maybe over Stanford, but even that's a maybe. No matter what happens, every other team will be able to claim a win over a team better than Ohio State being able to claim beating Michigan.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

12-1 ACC Champ, UNC gets in over 11-1 OSU who didnt even win their division.

OSU has a good team but only has 1 good win, at Mich. A UNC win over Clemson is better.

 

[UPitt '89]

That would be the easiest way for the committee to go. No way can I see them leaving out UNC, who just beat a team the Buckeyes couldn't.

And they could explain it by saying that.... all things being equal, we chose the teams that actually won their conference out of all the 1-loss teams.

That would be easy to defend... since any team had the opportunity to win its conference and shouldnt complain. Ironically, in that case the biggest beef would be Stanford, who won their league. But the committee has to leave one conference winner out - and Stanford's 2 losses would be the tie-breaker.

 

[UPitt '89]

12-1 ACC Champ, UNC gets in over 11-1 OSU who didnt even win their division.

OSU has a good team but only has 1 good win, at Mich. A UNC win over Clemson is better.

That's what SHOULD happen.

But Ohio State seems to get the benefit of the doubt, and the committee seems to have a very pro-B1G bias.

In any case.... Ohio State's ONLY chance is if Clemson or Alabama (or both) lose.

 

[wbrpanther]

And they could explain it by saying that.... all things being equal, we chose the teams that actually won their conference out of all the 1-loss teams.

That would be easy to defend... since any team had the opportunity to win its conference and shouldnt complain. Ironically, in that case the biggest beef would be Stanford, who won their league. But the committee has to leave one conference winner out - and Stanford's 2 losses would be the tie-breaker.

OK. That's settled. If the 2 undefeateds go down we can tell the committee we've done their work for them.

 

[UPitt '89]

OK. That's settled. If the 2 undefeateds go down we can tell the committee we've done their work for them.

After last season... I think we could do a better job than them. Haha.

 

[Pittx9]

If Iowa beats Michigan State and UNC beats Clemson, I still don't know how Ohio State makes a case to get in. For one, UNC most definitely has to be in with that happening. But then you're also giving 1 loss Ohio State credit for losing to Michigan State and NOT advancing to the Big Ten Championship. If Iowa beats Michigan State, how can they say that Ohio State wouldn't have lost had they beat Michigan State and made it there? So Ohio State would have 1 less loss in one less game, and Michigan State won that division. I really think it's a huge reach to include Ohio State in the discussion unless they get a ton of help.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Last year, the committee put a premium on being a conference champion.

The reason why the committee put a premium on being a conference champion is because the guidelines that the committee operates under specifically tells them that they should put a premium on being a conference champion. If there are two teams up for one spot that are more or less equal and one is a conference champion and the other is not they are supposed to pick the conference champion. And that's whether the non-conference champion is a conference also ran like Ohio State or if it were an independent like Notre Dame.

 

[UPitt '89]

The reason why the committee put a premium on being a conference champion is because the guidelines that the committee operates under specifically tells them that they should put a premium on being a conference champion. If there are two teams up for one spot that are more or less equal and one is a conference champion and the other is not they are supposed to pick the conference champion. And that's whether the non-conference champion is a conference also ran like Ohio State or if it were an independent like Notre Dame.

Which is why I think that the four teams will all be conference champs unless Florida beats Alabama. In that case, Ohio State might get their chance to defend their title.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If Iowa beats Michigan State and UNC beats Clemson, I still don't know how Ohio State makes a case to get in. For one, UNC most definitely has to be in with that happening. But then you're also giving 1 loss Ohio State credit for losing to Michigan State and NOT advancing to the Big Ten Championship. If Iowa beats Michigan State, how can they say that Ohio State wouldn't have lost had they beat Michigan State and made it there? So Ohio State would have 1 less loss in one less game, and Michigan State won that division. I really think it's a huge reach to include Ohio State in the discussion unless they get a ton of help.

Yes. 11-1 OSU cant jump an 11-2 MSU team that beat them at their place with a 3rd string QB. Not a chance.

I dont see a scenario where Ohio State can make it. Even if Florida beats Alabama, 11-2 Florida would probably go over them.

If it came down to it, 12-1 Clemson with wins over FSU and ND would go over them.

OSU is going to the Fiesta to play ND.

 

[UPitt '89]

Yes. 11-1 OSU cant jump an 11-2 MSU team that beat them at their place with a 3rd string QB. Not a chance.

I dont see a scenario where Ohio State can make it. Even if Florida beats Alabama, 11-2 Florida would probably go over them.

If it came down to it, 12-1 Clemson with wins over FSU and ND would go over them.

OSU is going to the Fiesta to play ND.

ND is going to the Peach against FSU. That's the most sure bet out there.

And noway Florida makes the playoff, even with a win. Stanford or OSU would definitely get in ahead of Florida.