Pitt +4 vs Virginia Tech - Game of the Week
"Why Pittsburgh covers: Pittsburgh is the clear No. 2 in the ACC according to our PFFELO rankings. They sit almost 35 ELO points ahead of Virginia Tech, who currently rank 33rd. The Hokies' matchup against Pittsburgh this weekend is the key to determining who will face off against Clemson, as is their following road contest against Virginia, who currently hold the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh. It is a complicated three-team race playing for the right to lose to Clemson by three touchdowns in the conference title game. Our ranking of Pittsburgh is slightly higher than the market but paints an interesting picture when comparing PFF grade to EPA generation. Pittsburgh ranks in the top-50 of all FBS schools in PFF passing grade but sits at 92nd in EPA generated per pass attempt at -.095. The discrepancy seems to result from their matchup against Virginia to start the season along with their brutal performance against Miami in Week 9.
Kenny Pickett is coming off his second-best passing grade of the season after throwing four big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays in their statement win over UNC. Hendon Hooker has yet to put a quality game together since returning from the injury that sidelined him against Notre Dame. Pittsburgh will be putting forth the better quarterback on a team with a higher ranking and asked to get over a field goal in points — this makes this an ideal spot to back the Panthers. Greenline leans heavily in their direction, giving a four-point road cover a 52.6% probability."
