Now that we’re at the half way mark, I thought I’d reexamine my pre-season position group rankings and see where I was wrong. Although 4-2 is the record I expected through 6 games, I thought we’d beat UVA and lose to UCF. There’s not another team on the schedule that looks like a likely loss, but given how our offense has performed, it seems likely that we’ll get tripped up once and maybe twice. Still, 8-4 wouldn’t be bad, especially if we can tack on a bowl win to go 9-4.
As I said in my pre-season summary, I’m using a 4 letter grade scale to measure each position group against the rest of the ACC. An “A” grade means the position group is one of the top 3 in the ACC, a “B” means the group is between 4th and 6th, a “C” means the position group is between 7th and 10th, and a D means the group is one the 4 worst in the ACC, 11th through 14th.
I'll start with QB because it's the longest. Feel free to skip over the pre-season projection and go right to the mid-year review, if you want. I'll be posting the rest of the offense shortly.
QB. 2019 Pre-Season Projection: C. Mid-Year Grade: C.
PRE-SEASON PROJECTION: Jr. Kenny Pickett returns as the starting QB and should be a little better after starting 14 games last season. The play calling last year was bad and pass blocking was worse. Pickett only attempted 310 passes in 14 games in 2018, a mere 22 attempts per game (70th in FBS, 13th in the ACC), for 1,969 yards (13th in the ACC), 12 TDs (11th in the ACC), and 6 interceptions (2nd behind Lawrence). His 58% pass completion percentage (12th in the ACC) wasn’t great, but when you’re only passing on obvious downs, one’s numbers won’t be good. Pickett did average 10.9 yards per completion, which isn’t awful. Looking at all the metrics from 2018, Pickett was basically the 12th best QB in the ACC.
Hopefully Pickett will be aided by the quick, rhythmic passing game Whipple used at UMass and appears to be implementing here. Let’s only assume a modest increase of 5 more passes per game in 2019. That would be 27 per game, 324 in the regular season, likely near the bottom of the ACC again, but consistent with past years under Narduzzi. Let’s also assume that between play design, play calls, WR experience, and his own improvement, Pickett’s completion percentage increases a modest 5% to 63% (middle of the ACC). That would give Pickett 204 completed passes in 12 games. In 2018, Pickett threw a touchdown on 6.7% of his completed passes and an interception on 3.3%.
Let’s assume another modest increase of 1 yard in Pickett’s yards per completion to 11.9, a modest increase his interception rate to a still low 4%, and improve TDs to 7.5% (these numbers are random, but none are better than median in the ACC to reflect our reliance on the run and Pickett’s relative weakness, other than interception rate where Pickett is strong). Running these numbers and comparing them to 2018 ACC stats, that would give Pickett 2,447 yards (8th in the ACC up from 13th), 15 TDs (9th in the ACC up from 12th), and 8 interceptions (2nd in the ACC again after Lawrence). These are all realistic improvements.
Every evaluation I can find put’s Pickett at around 10th out of the 11 returning QBs in the ACC, but a modest increase should put him closer to 7th. Likewise, 2,447 yards, 15 TDs, and 8 interceptions puts him close to Nate Peterman’s 2015 junior year stats (193/313, 61.7%, 2,287, 20 TDs, 8 Int.) and should be enough to win 8 games, if we can still run the ball effectively. With just a little more improvement than I’m expecting, Pickett could be in the top half of ACC QB’s by year’s end with another year to play. If he puts up numbers close to this projection, modest as they are, we should feel pretty good about him in 2020.
MID-YEAR REVIEW: I got some right and some wrong about Pickett and how he’d perform this season, but overall he’s meeting expectations. Pickett has improved from last year, and he’s being asked to do a lot more than I expected. He’s throwing the ball more frequently and for more yardage, (he’s on pace for 3,014 regular season yards) despite only playing in 5 games because of injury. Pickett is an absolute warrior and he possess all the intangible qualities of a great QB, which makes up for some of his skill deficiencies.
In only 5 games, Pickett has thrown for 1,370 yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He threw for 1,969 in 14 games last year. His 64.6 QBR is 55th in the country. He is 136 for 224 on passing attempts for a 60.7% completion percentage. His 4 interceptions against 224 passes is a strong 1.7% interception rate per pass, but his touchdown production is very poor. With only 6 passing touchdowns in 5 games, he’s only on pace to throw 13 TDs in the regular season against 492 passes. That would be among the worst in the ACC again, despite being near the top in attempts, after only throwing for 12 touchdowns (all coming in the regular season) last year. Nick Patti actually has 3 passing touchdowns on only 40 attempts, for context.
All in all, Pickett is better than he was last year, despite being asked to do more. He might even be the best offensive player on the team. The WRs and RBs are leaving a lot to be desired, and we need to acknowledge that Pickett is not surrounded by high quality playmakers when examining his numbers. He’s not as bad as his detractors say, but he’s also still not a top 6 ACC QB, even in a QB down year. He’s on pace to throw for 3,014 yards in the regular season even after missing a game, which is incredibly impressive, but his touchdown number really need to improve in the second half and he must stop turning the ball over to earn a “B” by year’s end.
As I said in my pre-season summary, I’m using a 4 letter grade scale to measure each position group against the rest of the ACC. An “A” grade means the position group is one of the top 3 in the ACC, a “B” means the group is between 4th and 6th, a “C” means the position group is between 7th and 10th, and a D means the group is one the 4 worst in the ACC, 11th through 14th.
I'll start with QB because it's the longest. Feel free to skip over the pre-season projection and go right to the mid-year review, if you want. I'll be posting the rest of the offense shortly.
QB. 2019 Pre-Season Projection: C. Mid-Year Grade: C.
PRE-SEASON PROJECTION: Jr. Kenny Pickett returns as the starting QB and should be a little better after starting 14 games last season. The play calling last year was bad and pass blocking was worse. Pickett only attempted 310 passes in 14 games in 2018, a mere 22 attempts per game (70th in FBS, 13th in the ACC), for 1,969 yards (13th in the ACC), 12 TDs (11th in the ACC), and 6 interceptions (2nd behind Lawrence). His 58% pass completion percentage (12th in the ACC) wasn’t great, but when you’re only passing on obvious downs, one’s numbers won’t be good. Pickett did average 10.9 yards per completion, which isn’t awful. Looking at all the metrics from 2018, Pickett was basically the 12th best QB in the ACC.
Hopefully Pickett will be aided by the quick, rhythmic passing game Whipple used at UMass and appears to be implementing here. Let’s only assume a modest increase of 5 more passes per game in 2019. That would be 27 per game, 324 in the regular season, likely near the bottom of the ACC again, but consistent with past years under Narduzzi. Let’s also assume that between play design, play calls, WR experience, and his own improvement, Pickett’s completion percentage increases a modest 5% to 63% (middle of the ACC). That would give Pickett 204 completed passes in 12 games. In 2018, Pickett threw a touchdown on 6.7% of his completed passes and an interception on 3.3%.
Let’s assume another modest increase of 1 yard in Pickett’s yards per completion to 11.9, a modest increase his interception rate to a still low 4%, and improve TDs to 7.5% (these numbers are random, but none are better than median in the ACC to reflect our reliance on the run and Pickett’s relative weakness, other than interception rate where Pickett is strong). Running these numbers and comparing them to 2018 ACC stats, that would give Pickett 2,447 yards (8th in the ACC up from 13th), 15 TDs (9th in the ACC up from 12th), and 8 interceptions (2nd in the ACC again after Lawrence). These are all realistic improvements.
Every evaluation I can find put’s Pickett at around 10th out of the 11 returning QBs in the ACC, but a modest increase should put him closer to 7th. Likewise, 2,447 yards, 15 TDs, and 8 interceptions puts him close to Nate Peterman’s 2015 junior year stats (193/313, 61.7%, 2,287, 20 TDs, 8 Int.) and should be enough to win 8 games, if we can still run the ball effectively. With just a little more improvement than I’m expecting, Pickett could be in the top half of ACC QB’s by year’s end with another year to play. If he puts up numbers close to this projection, modest as they are, we should feel pretty good about him in 2020.
MID-YEAR REVIEW: I got some right and some wrong about Pickett and how he’d perform this season, but overall he’s meeting expectations. Pickett has improved from last year, and he’s being asked to do a lot more than I expected. He’s throwing the ball more frequently and for more yardage, (he’s on pace for 3,014 regular season yards) despite only playing in 5 games because of injury. Pickett is an absolute warrior and he possess all the intangible qualities of a great QB, which makes up for some of his skill deficiencies.
In only 5 games, Pickett has thrown for 1,370 yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He threw for 1,969 in 14 games last year. His 64.6 QBR is 55th in the country. He is 136 for 224 on passing attempts for a 60.7% completion percentage. His 4 interceptions against 224 passes is a strong 1.7% interception rate per pass, but his touchdown production is very poor. With only 6 passing touchdowns in 5 games, he’s only on pace to throw 13 TDs in the regular season against 492 passes. That would be among the worst in the ACC again, despite being near the top in attempts, after only throwing for 12 touchdowns (all coming in the regular season) last year. Nick Patti actually has 3 passing touchdowns on only 40 attempts, for context.
All in all, Pickett is better than he was last year, despite being asked to do more. He might even be the best offensive player on the team. The WRs and RBs are leaving a lot to be desired, and we need to acknowledge that Pickett is not surrounded by high quality playmakers when examining his numbers. He’s not as bad as his detractors say, but he’s also still not a top 6 ACC QB, even in a QB down year. He’s on pace to throw for 3,014 yards in the regular season even after missing a game, which is incredibly impressive, but his touchdown number really need to improve in the second half and he must stop turning the ball over to earn a “B” by year’s end.
