Realistic pre-season expectations revisited.

[DC_Area_Panther]

Before Covid cancellations changed the number of OOC games to be played and also messed with the number of ACC games we will play—and also messed with the sequence and mix of ACC games to be played my belief that a successful regular season that demonstrated progress looked something like this—

OOC 9-2; ACC. 8-12 = 17-14 and no matter what the ACC Tourney results were a finish with over a 0.500 record.

So the question for me is what should this same level of improvement in record look like with fewer OOC games and fewer ACC games?

It probably means a below 0.500 record due mainly to getting 6 fewer OOC games and 4-5 more fewer OOC wins.

We may still be on target to finish at a fewer total games adjusted final result. To do that we need to finish our ACC schedule so that wherever number of additional wins we get—gets us ACC wins equal to 8/20 (2/5) of the number of regular season ACC games we wind up playing.

 

[Gep Dawg]

I would have been happy with a .500 record too...if I'm being honest. And they can achieve that by winning two of the next four games. Even if they go one and done in the ACC tourney!

My best hope was an NIT this year. And that was before their star recruit got suspended indefinitely. It's obvious Hughley playing significant minutes for this team was a bigger factor than we realized.

I think if the entire team comes back (as expected now that Penny has tailed off his superstar play) next year will be a big step up (or if not a break) year for Capel and the program. If they play well next year the recruiting class for the following year will fill itself up. If not they will find themselves at a crossroads.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

IMHO, the key will be whether a big man more talented than what we have now can be found as a transfer or reclassify for next season.

 

[BFo8]

I would’ve said reasonable goals to me would be to compete for an NIT berth and not collapse down the stretch as they had the prior 2 seasons. NIT probably out of reach at this point and the threat of a late season collapse is looming.

Hopefully they can win a couple of these late games and salvage the season somewhat.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

A couple of more wins and they will be pretty much where I expected them to be beginning pre-season.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

A couple of more wins and they will be pretty much where I expected them to be beginning pre-season.

My sense is that this team has been more competitive overall in ACC play than last season. IMHO it is still missing that one piece— an effective ACC level post player. If we had such a player this season our present ACC record would likely be opposite what it is—say 8-5 or 9-4 vs our actual 5-8. Even if we only had a developing Hugley we would probably have won about two more at this juncture, IMO.

 

[WannyandWalt]

My sense is that this team has been more competitive overall in ACC play than last season. IMHO it is still missing that one piece— an effective ACC level post player. If we had such a player this season our present ACC record would likely be opposite what it is—say 8-5 or 9-4 vs our actual 5-8. Even if we only had a developing Hugley we would probably have won about two more at this juncture, IMO.

The ACC is terrible as well this year, but whatever makes people see progress where there isn't much

 

[PittPoker]

The ACC is terrible as well this year, but whatever makes people see progress where there isn't much

It's crazy right? We've made literally no progress, collapsing yet again but yet some on here want to keep trying to find something, anything to show Capel is the guy lol. It's so bizarre. Probably the same people who also keep believing that Narduzzi will turn the program around going on year 7 smh.

 

[voiceyouropinion]

these are the moral victory people, the same people who make excuse after excuse, and the same people who blame the games on referees, the same people who still look at pitt basketball like it is the Jamie era , or football like it is still the john Majors era. Both of those ships have sailed, these programs are MAC level programs at best.

 

[Duneaux Harm]

It's crazy right? We've made literally no progress, collapsing yet again but yet some on here want to keep trying to find something, anything to show Capel is the guy lol. It's so bizarre. Probably the same people who also keep believing that Narduzzi will turn the program around going on year 7 smh.

You are insane. You only judge progress on the very basest elements. This team has progressed from last year by many, many measures. That progress has not translated to wins. Perhaps a rip roaring Zoo could have pushed some of those home losses to W’s. I don’t know.

 

[Vader_Storm]

You are insane. You only judge progress on the very basest elements. This team has progressed from last year by many, many measures. That progress has not translated to wins. Perhaps a rip roaring Zoo could have pushed some of those home losses to W’s. I don’t know.

For simple reference.

Ive said over and over it takes around 8 players with a 100+ ORTG to be NCAA Tournament worthy on the offensive end.

Here are the last 5 seasons at Pitt

2017- 5 players 100+
2018-2
2019-2
2020-4
2021-5, Odukale next year with a full year to heal the broken arm will be 6 "if" Champ returns is a base core of 6, as his play has improved as the season continues

So despite the record, the individual parts of talent is certainly getting better again. Not as fast as some people want, but it is getting there. The loss of John Hugley is a killer.

 

[KennyTheKangaroo]

This is most definitely the most talented team of the capel era.

The’ve lost to St Francis, Wake, GT, and NC State. Pitt isn’t talented enough to win all four games, but there is enough talent on the team that a good effort would have resulted in at least 2 wins against those 4 opponents.

 

[JD1976]

The ACC is terrible as well this year, but whatever makes people see progress where there isn't much

The top of the conference isn’t what it usually is, but the middle and bottom where Pitt lives hasn’t really changed.