Reasons to feel optimistic about Pitt making the NCAA Tournament…

[Blair_45]

Here is a quick list of things I am looking at so far compared to last year as to why I think they will make it.

1. Huge road wins against Quad 1 teams. They already have them against Duke,
and Virginia, and still have good shots to get them against both Wake and Clemson and the NC State road win is very close and could still be a Quad 1 win. They already have 6 road wins all together and the committee looks at road wins a lot when it comes to picking teams on the bubble over other teams who don’t have the stronger resume.

2. Our NET and Kenpom rankings are in better shape this season then last barring any major collapses. Last season it was 67 going into the tournament which probably landed them in Dayton this season I feel it will be between 40-50 maybe even better.

3. Pitt is playing better down the stretch here in February going into March then they were a year ago and all their “bad” and sub par losses which aren’t many were mostly all early in the season.

4. Pitt made the tournament last season in the First Four and won two games and beat two teams in Miss St and Iowa State who are both going to be in the tournament this season with Iowa State being a top 10-15 overall seed. So Pitt has the pedigree this season of the committee knowing they can win tournament games against good teams if they put them in which I think helps their cause a great deal.

5. Final one here having a guy like Blake Hinson who can flat out score and two freshman guards that can also score and being one of the better 3 point shooting teams not only in the ACC but in the entire country. Fans want to see teams make it that can score and win games and make tournament runs and Pitt has the look of a team that could potentially do that over all the other bubble teams.

 

[Chairman Moe]

5. Final one here having a guy like Blake Hinson who can flat out score and two freshman guards that can also score and being one of the better 3 point shooting teams not only in the ACC but in the entire country. Fans want to see teams make it that can score and win games and make tournament runs and Pitt has the look of a team that could potentially do that over all the other bubble teams.

It would be interesting to know if the committee actually discusses things like the "fan factor" in deciding what teams are awarded at-large bids?

Regarding Iowa State - whom you mentioned in another comment - I watched their highlights on SportsCenter last night and they are a beast.

 

[NCanton Panther]

Here is a quick list of things I am looking at so far compared to last year as to why I think they will make it.

1. Huge road wins against Quad 1 teams. They already have them against Duke,
and Virginia, and still have good shots to get them against both Wake and Clemson and the NC State road win is very close and could still be a Quad 1 win. They already have 6 road wins all together and the committee looks at road wins a lot when it comes to picking teams on the bubble over other teams who don’t have the stronger resume.

2. Our NET and Kenpom rankings are in better shape this season then last barring any major collapses. Last season it was 67 going into the tournament which probably landed them in Dayton this season I feel it will be between 40-50 maybe even better.

3. Pitt is playing better down the stretch here in February going into March then they were a year ago and all their “bad” and sub par losses which aren’t many were mostly all early in the season.

4. Pitt made the tournament last season in the First Four and won two games and beat two teams in Miss St and Iowa State who are both going to be in the tournament this season with Iowa State being a top 10-15 overall seed. So Pitt has the pedigree this season of the committee knowing they can win tournament games against good teams if they put them in which I think helps their cause a great deal.

5. Final one here having a guy like Blake Hinson who can flat out score and two freshman guards that can also score and being one of the better 3 point shooting teams not only in the ACC but in the entire country. Fans want to see teams make it that can score and win games and make tournament runs and Pitt has the look of a team that could potentially do that over all the other bubble teams.

I like everything you say, just one comment. We are still just about as close as you can get to a 3-pt and mid-range jump shooting team, small bit of drive to the basket, zero inside game . So what are our fortunes primarily based on…..avoiding a team-collective bad shooting game. We’ve done that during this recent stretch, let’s hope it stays that way.

 

[Blair_45]

I like everything you say, just one comment. We are still just about as close as you can get to a 3-pt and mid-range jump shooting team, small bit of drive to the basket, zero inside game . So what are our fortunes primarily based on…..avoiding a team-collective bad shooting game. We’ve done that during this recent stretch, let’s hope it stays that way.

I did fail to bring this up in all the points I made but I do think Pitt’s defense has been very good as well the last month during this 7-1 stretch. If they can carry that kind of D into these last 6 games and then into both the ACC tournament and the NCCA Tournament along with the hot shooting this team will have a very good chance of making it to the Saturday night game in DC and the 2nd weekend of the NCCA tournament and the Sweet 16.

 

[PittMan 72]

I like everything you say, just one comment. We are still just about as close as you can get to a 3-pt and mid-range jump shooting team, small bit of drive to the basket, zero inside game . So what are our fortunes primarily based on…..avoiding a team-collective bad shooting game. We’ve done that during this recent stretch, let’s hope it stays that way.

This is why it is SO important for Pitt “make shots”. That’s not a flippant term in Pitt’s case. Because the Panthers aren't taking and making a lot of point-blank shots from close range.

Instead, Pitt is playing to their strengths and doing mostly what they are built to do: take jump shots; a lot of which are 3’s.

There is no gifted back-to-the-basket 5 on this team to use as a primary low post scoring threat. Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to try to force something that very likely won’t work.

Use the 5 as a screener, passer, occasional roll to the basket target, offensive rebounder.

For the latter part of the season Pitt has been able to use an offense that consists of 4 guys on the floor together (almost at all times) who are at least capable of making 3 pointers. When G D-G is on the floor, then it could mean that ALL 5 are capable. FF and Will are the only 2 that an opponent can disregard completely from outside.

Aside from Blake, nobody is what would be considered to be a deadly 3 ball shooter. But they are all capable enough and have made some shots to at least draw attention.

Moving the opposing D and getting good ball movement to find open shooters is a big part. So is dribble penetration and at times making an entry pass to the 5 to make a D collapse, at least a bit, to create room for a kick out pass.

But yes, this team offensively will have to continue to “make shots”

And also to play solid D, defensive rebound and limit turnovers. They need to be consistently good at all those things.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

I did fail to bring this up in all the points I made but I do think Pitt’s defense has been very good as well the last month during this 7-1 stretch. If they can carry that kind of D into these last 6 games and then into both the ACC tournament and the NCCA Tournament along with the hot shooting this team will have a very good chance of making it to the Saturday night game in DC and the 2nd weekend of the NCCA tournament and the Sweet 16.

I think Pitt's defense and rebounding will help them down the stretch if and when their scoring isn't quite up to their usual standards. Pitt is second best in Points Against in the ACC, second only to UVA.

If Pitt wins at least one of the 2 against Clemson and WF on the road, then takes cares of business with what's left, I think they make the NCAAT with at least 1 win in the ACCT. If we stumble and lose 3 or more games, I think the NIT is our landing spot. We can't afford to lose 3 more games of the 6 remaining. But I'm optimistic the way they're playing now that we're going to get to 21 wins.

 

[PittMBA]

Here is a quick list of things I am looking at so far compared to last year as to why I think they will make it.

1. Huge road wins against Quad 1 teams. They already have them against Duke,
and Virginia, and still have good shots to get them against both Wake and Clemson and the NC State road win is very close and could still be a Quad 1 win. They already have 6 road wins all together and the committee looks at road wins a lot when it comes to picking teams on the bubble over other teams who don’t have the stronger resume.

2. Our NET and Kenpom rankings are in better shape this season then last barring any major collapses. Last season it was 67 going into the tournament which probably landed them in Dayton this season I feel it will be between 40-50 maybe even better.

3. Pitt is playing better down the stretch here in February going into March then they were a year ago and all their “bad” and sub par losses which aren’t many were mostly all early in the season.

4. Pitt made the tournament last season in the First Four and won two games and beat two teams in Miss St and Iowa State who are both going to be in the tournament this season with Iowa State being a top 10-15 overall seed. So Pitt has the pedigree this season of the committee knowing they can win tournament games against good teams if they put them in which I think helps their cause a great deal.

5. Final one here having a guy like Blake Hinson who can flat out score and two freshman guards that can also score and being one of the better 3 point shooting teams not only in the ACC but in the entire country. Fans want to see teams make it that can score and win games and make tournament runs and Pitt has the look of a team that could potentially do that over all the other bubble teams.

I’ll add our predictive metrics - BPI especially- and KenPom are very tournament worthy. BPI really likes PItt

 

[4Mark_Marty]

This is why it is SO important for Pitt “make shots”. That’s not a flippant term in Pitt’s case. Because the Panthers aren't taking and making a lot of point-blank shots from close range.

Instead, Pitt is playing to their strengths and doing mostly what they are built to do: take jump shots; a lot of which are 3’s.

There is no gifted back-to-the-basket 5 on this team to use as a primary low post scoring threat. Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to try to force something that very likely won’t work.

Use the 5 as a screener, passer, occasional roll to the basket target, offensive rebounder.

For the latter part of the season Pitt has been able to use an offense that consists of 4 guys on the floor together (almost at all times) who are at least capable of making 3 pointers. When G D-G is on the floor, then it could mean that ALL 5 are capable. FF and Will are the only 2 that an opponent can disregard completely from outside.

Aside from Blake, nobody is what would be considered to be a deadly 3 ball shooter. But they are all capable enough and have made some shots to at least draw attention.

Moving the opposing D and getting good ball movement to find open shooters is a big part. So is dribble penetration and at times making an entry pass to the 5 to make a D collapse, at least a bit, to create room for a kick out pass.

But yes, this team offensively will have to continue to “make shots”

And also to play solid D, defensive rebound and limit turnovers. They need to be consistently good at all those things.

In other words, they have to play well.

 

[PittMan 72]

In other words, they have to play well.

Sure. They have to do what it takes to wIn. Consistently. That most definitely includes the elements mentioned.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

I think they have to beat Wake to get in the lead for the theoretical last ACC spot.