Recipe for a Pitt Upset of ND

[TheDecker]

Hey Pitt fans

Full disclosure...I'm an ND fan, I'm sure some of you have seen a couple of my posts around this board over the last couple days

I'm excited for this game, and I've been looking more and more into Pitt (strengths, weaknesses, matchups, etc.)
I'd love to hear more from you guys on your thoughts about the up coming game!

From my point of view so far, the best things Pitt can do to pull off the win are:

1. Start Fast - ND has been almost impossible to beat in the 2nd half (especially the 4th quarter) so you want to build a big lead early
2. Create "Big Plays" - ND's defense is good at getting off the field but gives up a lot of big plays. You're way more likely to score on a 3 play/80 yard drive than a 15 play/80 yard drive
3. Utilize "Trick Plays" - ND has been super vulnerable to trick plays, getting burned by at least 1 in almost every single game
4. Key in on Prosise (RB) & Fuller (WR) - These two are our "game wreckers" on offense, if you limit them our offense becomes much less scary
5. Limit "Big Plays" from ND - Our offense hasn't been super efficient, but we've put up a lot of points by creating explosive plays
6. Run Between the Tackles - Our defense has A LOT of speed, especially on the edges. It's really hard to run outside. The MLB and Safeties are VERY vulnerable though, and teams have successfully attacked them on the interior run game
7. Be Aggressive Up-Front on Defense - Kizer (QB) has shown his youth and made mistakes when teams have been able to get pressure to him....but against our OL that's hard to do with just 4
8. Create Turnovers - Always a key in every game....but this team is vulnerable to TOs...especially in the Red-Zone
9. Attack the Middle of the Field - ND's defense is weakest in coverage in the middle (MLB and Safeties). Good TEs, RB, and Slots can eat our MLB/Safeties alive in the passing game
10. Run the QB - We play a lot of man coverage....if you can get Jaylon Smith (LB) out of the box the QB run game is effective against us

If you look at Clemson, they did almost all of these things against ND

If Pitt can do 7-8 of these things effectively.....you guys should have a legit shot at the upset

 

[NC Panther]

Thanks - we'll pass this on to the Pitt coaching staff - I bet they had no idea.

You may have just won the game for Pitt!!

 

[TheDecker]

Thanks - we'll pass this on to the Pitt coaching staff - I bet they had no idea.

You may have just won the game for Pitt!!

Lol...right?
I'm sure they couldn't figure this out from watching ND's film

I figured this stuff might be interesting for those who watch ND less than fans
(and certainly less than coaches)

Big Plays, Turnovers, and MLB/S play have killed ND so far

 

[aNOTREDAMEfan]

The only way I see it is if ND beats themselves. 5-6 turnovers, costly penalties, etc. ND is way better than us and I know we typically play them close but I just cant see it. We were outclassed by UNC. ND is basically the same team but another level or 2 better. UNC is like ND's JV team.

Never ever underestimate your team! I've been a Notre Dame fan for many years. I have no doubt your team will play to their best potential against the Irish. I've learned over the years that love or hate ND, it brings out the best in any team that plays them. I'm expecting a well fought, take no prisoners, ND - Pitt game. Hoping my Irish win but expecting this to be a close one.

 

[aNOTREDAMEfan]

Its weird because the least confident I can ever remember being for ND. I usually think we can beat them, even in your NC loss year. We are having a good year so I should feel pretty confident but I just think the talent gap is too great.

ND has lost some quality players to injuries early in the year. I figured the game against Temple last week would be one of the easier ones. However, Temple did an excellent job keeping the game close and could have easily won.

 

[Pittx9]

5-6 turnovers

Do you really think Pitt is that bad? 2 or 3 turnovers and Notre Dame would be in a heap of trouble, if we capitalize. 5-6 turnovers and Notre Dame could lose to Slippery Rock.

 

[sherepower]

The only way I see it is if ND beats themselves. 5-6 turnovers, costly penalties, etc. ND is way better than us and I know we typically play them close but I just cant see it. We were outclassed by UNC. ND is basically the same team but another level or 2 better. UNC is like ND's JV team.

You make them sound like they are as good as the New England Patriots lol.

They were in a dog fight against GT ( who we beat ). They needed a hail mary to beat Virginia ( who we beat ). They should of lost to Temple ( who we have better players than )

Its going to come down too. Is our offensive coordinator going to be patient enough with the power run game ( which has worked all year) which will keep Notre Dames offense off the field.
If Chaney starts to try and get cute instead of running the ball down their throats. I can see the game getting away from us. If he does what i suggest. We will be there at the very end.

 

[The Loaded Italian]

Always a great game....

Look forward to another one. I foresee lots of Ollison up the middle

 

[TheDecker]

You make them sound like they are as good as the New England Patriots lol.

They were in a dog fight against GT ( who we beat ). They needed a hail mary to beat Virginia ( who we beat ). They should of lost to Temple ( who we have better players than )

Its going to come down too. Is our offensive coordinator going to be patient enough with the power run game ( which has worked all year) which will keep Notre Dames offense off the field.
If Chaney starts to try and get cute instead of running the ball down their throats. I can see the game getting away from us. If he does what i suggest. We will be there at the very end.

I wouldn't say we were in a dog fight with GT...
ND was up 30-7 with 50 seconds left, and let them score some garbage time points to make the score look closer
ND blewout GT, the game was never close

We played terrible against Virginia, no question there
However, in our defense it's usually pretty tough when your QB breaks his ankle during the game and you have to switch to a RS Frosh who's never taken a CFB snap before

Also, not sure why "We should have lost to Temple"??
You have to play the whole 60 minutes.
We were winning at half time and winning when the game ended. They "should have won" because they took the lead at one point?
Also, I wouldn't right off Temple's players......their LB is a Top5 LB in CFB (imo) and the best LB that ND will play this season (better than any USC LB, Clemson LB, Stanford LB, etc.)

I still think this should be a close game..........but I'm not really sold on the points you're trying to make in this post

 

[sherepower]

Plus, if we don't get screwed by the ref's. Like we did against UNC. They had 1 penalty to our 9. We will be there at the end.

Believe me i am the last person to use the ref excuse. However, 1 penalty to 9 is ridiculous.

And we all know about the Phantom flag that was called against us when we last played Notre Dame at their place. The year they played for the National Championship game.

 

[#99HUGHgreen]

I have never felt like we could not beat NotreDame. Even in years where Pitt was not winning much. Our team always plays well agains ND and gives tremendous effort... except for Wannstedts first game as HC against them (don't get me started about that game).

I have a feeling our defense is going to play its best game all season this Saturday and they are going to end up with lots of crucial tackles for a loss. I also agree with sherepower that if Chaney decides to be patient with the power running game (specifically with Ollison in the backfield), pitt can wear ND down and push them down the field right into the end zone. Doing this early will also open up the field and allow Peterman to find Boyd and our TEs for big plays and ultimately the victory.

 

[zonairish]

The only way I see it is if ND beats themselves. 5-6 turnovers, costly penalties, etc. ND is way better than us and I know we typically play them close but I just cant see it. We were outclassed by UNC. ND is basically the same team but another level or 2 better. UNC is like ND's JV team.

College football is funny game . As you said Notre Dame has more talent then Pitt but that does not always win the day. Look @ temple they were on fire the whole game. their intensity showed . The other poster spelled out how to beat the Irish and even with turnovers it will be difficult. That said as a fan and a football film watcher Pitt's D is impressive if they overcome the big play ability of the Irish and Boyd steps it up and he is a talent you have a shot. Everyone wants to beat Notre Dame because of the marquee value. If Pitts D plays like Temple you have shot

 

[sherepower]

I wouldn't say we were in a dog fight with GT...
ND was up 30-7 with 50 seconds left, and let them score some garbage time points to make the score look closer
ND blewout GT, the game was never close

We played terrible against Virginia, no question there
However, in our defense it's usually pretty tough when your QB breaks his ankle during the game and you have to switch to a RS Frosh who's never taken a CFB snap before

Also, not sure why "We should have lost to Temple"??
You have to play the whole 60 minutes.
We were winning at half time and winning when the game ended. They "should have won" because they took the lead at one point?
Also, I wouldn't right off Temple's players......their LB is a Top5 LB in CFB (imo) and the best LB that ND will play this season (better than any USC LB, Clemson LB, Stanford LB, etc.)

I still think this should be a close game..........but I'm not really sold on the points you're trying to make in this post

Umm... you were losing the game at the time your QB got hurt. As for the Temple game. The one pass interference call was borderline criminal. I don't think you were up 30-7 at one time against GT. I will have to check that out later.

 

[zonairish]

Umm... you were losing the game at the time your QB got hurt. As for the Temple game. The one pass interference call was borderline criminal. I don't think you were up 30-7 at one time against GT. I will have to check that out later.

yes Notre Dame was up 30 to 7

 

[TheDecker]

Umm... you were losing the game at the time your QB got hurt. As for the Temple game. The one pass interference call was borderline criminal. I don't think you were up 30-7 at one time against GT. I will have to check that out later.

ND scored against GT with 6:58 left in the 4th to go up 30-7
GT got all of it's remaining points (15 points) in the last 50 seconds of the game, when ND has literally checked
That game was a blowout, where GT got some garbage points at the end

Yes, we played a bad game against Virginia
But it makes much harder to turn that around when your starting QB breaks his ankle during the game......we went from a QB making his 1st ever road start, to a QB taking his 1st ever CFB snap
That's not exactly something you can overlook

Blaming the refs is always a terrible excuse.....especially when they're Temple's refs (AAC) at Temple's stadium
Beyond that, it was a TERRIBLE call that kicked out our best Safety......so the refs hardly favored us (and most ND fans would tell you we got absolutely cheated by the refs in that game)
Very hard for me to see how you can really say "ND should have lost" when we were winning for almost the whole game and nothing really controversial happened....especially against Temple

 

[zonairish]

decker actually the targeting call was the correct call based on the rules. The issue is : Is that rule a good one, I think the intent of the rule is good but it was obvious that the intent of the player was not to target. The other calls were good but I do think you could have called holding on Temple virtually every pass play. The issue comes down to how many are the refs going to call, That will also be the issue with Pitts D the way their CB's play our receive res

 

[MrGee]

Umm... you were losing the game at the time your QB got hurt. As for the Temple game. The one pass interference call was borderline criminal. I don't think you were up 30-7 at one time against GT. I will have to check that out later.

The one thing that's guaranteed is that ND will be the recipient of 2-3 PI penalties on deep throws to Fuller ---besides that, ND has the talent edge big time, but Pitt has had a way of making these games interesting

 

[sherepower]

ND scored against GT with 6:58 left in the 4th to go up 30-7
GT got all of it's remaining points (15 points) in the last 50 seconds of the game, when ND has literally checked
That game was a blowout, where GT got some garbage points at the end

Yes, we played a bad game against Virginia
But it makes much harder to turn that around when your starting QB breaks his ankle during the game......we went from a QB making his 1st ever road start, to a QB taking his 1st ever CFB snap
That's not exactly something you can overlook

Blaming the refs is always a terrible excuse.....especially when they're Temple's refs (AAC) at Temple's stadium
Beyond that, it was a TERRIBLE call that kicked out our best Safety......so the refs hardly favored us (and most ND fans would tell you we got absolutely cheated by the refs in that game)
Very hard for me to see how you can really say "ND should have lost" when we were winning for almost the whole game and nothing really controversial happened....especially against Temple

Like i said. I THOUGHT the GT game was closer than that. I will have to check that out later when i have more time.

Plus, i never like to use the ref excuse. However, from past experience playing against ND. You folks always seem to get the crucial call down the strech.

You know, like the pass interference call you guys got against us the year you played Alabama in the national championship game. If not for the refs. We beat you at your place and you never get to play Alabama.

 

[TheDecker]

The one thing that's guaranteed is that ND will be the recipient of 2-3 PI penalties on deep throws to Fuller ---besides that, ND has the talent edge big time, but Pitt has had a way of making these games interesting

People try to make it sounds like ND is "getting" PI calls, that other teams don't get

If you're playing a lot of press coverage against one of the fastest WRs in CFB in an offense that looks to push the ball downfield........you're like to get some PI calls

You'll get even more when you emphasize physicality and holding from CB's like Temple did and Narduzzi has in the past

 

[sherepower]

The one thing that's guaranteed is that ND will be the recipient of 2-3 PI penalties on deep throws to Fuller ---besides that, ND has the talent edge big time, but Pitt has had a way of making these games interesting

Your right. The pass interference calls will be on 3rd and longs. A subtle way to deflate our defense. Lol

 

[TheDecker]

Like i said. I THOUGHT the GT game was closer than that. I will have to check that out later when i have more time.

Plus, i never like to use the ref excuse. However, from past experience playing against ND. You folks always seem to get the crucial call down the strech.

You know, like the pass interference call you guys got against us the year you played Alabama in the national championship game. If not for the refs. We beat you at your place and you never get to play Alabama.

If not for your kicker, then you would beat us

Again, trying to blame the refs for a loss (like you are in this thread) is a loser's excuse.....and not one I can respect

 

[sherepower]

If not for your kicker, then you would beat us

Again, trying to blame the refs for a loss (like you are in this thread) is a loser's excuse.....and not one I can respect

Huh?

The ref's most definitely gave you that game. It was 4th down very late in the game. When they called a Phantom pass interference against our defender. If not for that call Pitt wins. And you never play Alabama. That is a fact!

I wish i could post a link to that specific call. Its shameful.

 

[TheDecker]

Huh?

The ref's most definitely gave you that game. It was 4th down very late in the game. When they called a Phantom pass interference against our defender. If not for that call Pitt wins. And you never play Alabama. That is a fact!

I wish i could post a link to that specific call. Its shameful.

My point is, every team has calls that go both for and against them in every game!

It's not the refs that lost Pitt that game, that's a loser excuse......and not one that I can ever make or respect

What lost Pitt that game was their players and coaches, specifically a player who missed a 30 Yard Field Goal to win

If you're players make the plays they need to, then you win, and we don't play Alabama......but they didn't

That was a loser excuse in 2012 and it would be a loser excuse in 2015 if either team is trying to use it after our game this time around

 

[Syd4ND]

ND has lost some quality players to injuries early in the year. I figured the game against Temple last week would be one of the easier ones. However, Temple did an excellent job keeping the game close and could have easily won.

Not trying to start a fire but Temple would beat Pitt. That stat has no impact on this game. But make no mistake in 2015 Temple is the best football team in PA. And I will stand by that even if Pitt beats ND. Too many people looking at the logo on the helmet and giving Temple the side eye. But they really are good. first time in forever but still deserve respect for this year's body of work.

 

[#99HUGHgreen]

Huh?

The ref's most definitely gave you that game... I wish i could post a link to that specific call. Its shameful.

Play you are talking about starts at the :20 mark.

Listen to what Rece Davis says...

No question... It was a terrible call. The worst part is that It wasn't reviewed and overturned. That is what seemed awfully sketchy - like someone didn't want an undefeated ND team to lose. Just criminal.

There were other bad calls against Pitt that game, as well. Still, Pitt did have a chance to put the game away and they didn't.

The football Gods evened the score when ND got a beaten down in the national championship game against Alabama.

One can't be too upset if their teams play their tails off and another team just outplays them. But to have a referee make such a beaten bad call and it gets swept under the carpet... Well that's enough to make any fan feel sick.

 

[#99HUGHgreen]

Not trying to start a fire but Temple would beat Pitt. That stat has no impact on this game. But make no mistake in 2015 Temple is the best football team in PA. And I will stand by that even if Pitt beats ND. Too many people looking at the logo on the helmet and giving Temple the side eye. But they really are good. first time in forever but still deserve respect for this year's body of work.

So in other words... you are saying that if Pitt beats Notre Dame, Notre Dame would be worse than Pitt and yet Pitt would be worse than Temple and Temple would be worse than ND?

Okay, now I understand.

 

[TheDecker]

View embedded media

Play you are talking about starts at the :20 mark.

Listen to what Rece Davis says...

No question... It was a terrible call. The worst part is that It wasn't reviewed and overturned. That is what seemed awfully sketchy - like someone didn't want an undefeated ND team to lose. Just criminal.

There were other bad calls against Pitt that game, as well. Still, Pitt did have a chance to put the game away and they didn't.

The football Gods evened the score when ND got a beaten down in the national championship game against Alabama.

One can't be too upset if their teams play their tails off and another team just outplays them. But to have a referee make such a beaten bad call and it gets swept under the carpet... Well that's enough to make any fan feel sick.

You can't review a PI call.......you know that, right?

 

[sherepower]

Not trying to start a fire but Temple would beat Pitt. That stat has no impact on this game. But make no mistake in 2015 Temple is the best football team in PA. And I will stand by that even if Pitt beats ND. Too many people looking at the logo on the helmet and giving Temple the side eye. But they really are good. first time in forever but still deserve respect for this year's body of work.

Umm.......i know all about Temple ( my kid played for them ). So i know all about their roster ( they were all recruited with my son )

Believe me, i told folks 3 years ago Temple was going to be pretty good. However, there is no way they are better than Pitt. I know Pitt's roster just as good (most of their players were in my sons class ).

Player for player. Pitt has more talent than Temple. So for you to say Temple is the best team in Pa is simply wishful thinking.

 

[Duo]

Pitt can win if they do what Temple and Clemson did.

Odds favor ND but that hasn't held Pitt back in the past.

 

[deepelemblues]

8. should be 1.

Turnovers turnovers turnovers.

 

[TheDecker]

Pitt can win if they do what Temple and Clemson did.

Odds favor ND but that hasn't held Pitt back in the past.

Agree

Focus your DL and LB on stopping the run, specifically CJ Procise

Use your LBs on run blitzes OFTEN, especially on the interior, and have at least 1 safety help protect the edge of your run defense

Have your DBs pay extra attention to Fuller and have a safety help with coverage over the top so he can't just torch a CB for long TDs

That's a fairly doable way to take away what ND wants to do the most......

From there you just have to roll the dice that the RS Frosh QB, #2 WR, #3 WR, Tr. Frosh TE, etc. don't beat you

 

[TheDecker]

8. should be 1.

Turnovers turnovers turnovers.

They always play a big part in almost any upset

Pitt hasn't been great at creating turnovers (95th in CFB) and ND's been middling in protecting the ball (42nd in CFB).......so it's not a game that would normally scream "Turnovers"

But it's certainly possible, especially if Pitt's defense is able to get pressure on Kizer

 

[#99HUGHgreen]

You can't review a PI call.......you know that, right?

I do... I see now how the way I worded it comes across.

I could have made it clearer and said "the worse part is that it wasn't reviewable or able to be overturned."

My point is just that games should always be won or lost by the players on the field and the decisions made by the coaches on the sidelines.

 

[deepelemblues]

2013: 3 ND turnovers, 0 Pitt turnovers. Pitt wins.
2012: 3 ND turnovers, 0 Pitt turnovers. ND wins (shouldn't have)
2011: 2 ND turnovers, 0 Pitt turnovers. ND wins
2010: 0 ND turnovers, 2 Pitt turnovers. ND wins.
2009: 2 ND turnovers, 0 Pitt turnovers. Pitt wins.
2008: 0 ND turnovers, 3 Pitt turnovers. Pitt wins.

In recent games (except 2008) that Pitt has won, turnovers (takeaways or on downs) played a big role. When ND won turnovers were less of a factor. So if Pitt is going to win the trend points to there needing to be ND turnovers that either take ND points off the board like in 2013 or put Pitt points on the board also like in 2013.

 

[Syd4ND]

Umm.......i know all about Temple ( my kid played for them ). So i know all about their roster ( they were all recruited with my son )

Believe me, i told folks 3 years ago Temple was going to be pretty good. However, there is no way they are better than Pitt. I know Pitt's roster just as good (most of their players were in my sons class ).

Player for player. Pitt has more talent than Temple. So for you to say Temple is the best team in Pa is simply wishful thinking.

Well they beat Penn State. Since you are talking about roster talent, I like USC roster (mostly 5 stars) but they aren't the best team. Oregon in the past had very few 5 star players and recruiting wise was never top 10 yet we all know how they were playing. I'm Talking about TEAM. Temple is a very good TEAM. The sum is collectively much greater than the parts. Again too much logo watching (ND is one of the worst in this regard).