Yes. The foot print of their conference.
And that footprint better be the southeast, Texas, or California.
The further you are from those locations, the more difficult it is to win.
And it’s difficult to build an elite roster from Minnesota.
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Yes. The foot print of their conference.
And that footprint better be the southeast, Texas, or California.
The further you are from those locations, the more difficult it is to win.
And it’s difficult to build an elite roster from Minnesota.
Finding the emerging star that will succeed is the problem. How many emerging stars have flopped? The right answer is “most”. It’s a crapshoot.
Geography is the single most important aspect of a program. LSU won a national title with an alligator hunter as head coach because Justin Jefferson and Jamarr Chase were both born in the state of LA.
really? Take a look at Jefferson and Chase’s career stats prior to the 2019-2020 natty season. Or Ohio native Joe Burrow’s stats from the same time frame. How do you explain that versus what they did in 2019-2020? Or look at the alligator hunter’s track record and offensive statistical output for his entire HC career before 2019-20.
You might want to take a look at the guy that won the Broyles award that year. That might have had some small role in explaining why they went from just another decent team to the best offense in college football history in one offseason.
I get your point on geography and recruiting, but LSU won their last natty by going from a Cignetti/Chaney/Watson/Emfinger type OC to a young innovative guy who saw the personnel he had to work with and knew exactly how to max them out. If Joe Brady hadn’t been at LSU for that one year, that natty never happens, and a few of the players from that team are drafted a lot later than they were.
Coaching matters-a lot.
The offensive system matters.
And while talent matters far more for defensive success, it still matters offensively as well. At a certain point you reach the ceiling of the system, and/or play a defense with so much talent that it doesn’t matter what system you throw at it.
Tenn vs UGA last year was a perfect example of that. Heupel’s patch work OL could not get any push against that NFL UGA front, and the system wasn’t going to be of any help against that.
Or Tenn vs UF this year. Tenn had two starting OL out, and Heupel hasn’t been there long enough to build any kind of OL depth.
So UF just thinned out the box, which under the Veer and Shoot calls for a handoff. But even with a thinned out box, Tenn couldn’t run. And struggle to pass with a bad QB and UF defense whose numbers were leveraged to stop the pass.
Those are points where you better have the minimal talent needed to make whatever system you’re running, work. There’s just some systems that require a lot more than others.
And while talent matters far more for defensive success, it still matters offensively as well. At a certain point you reach the ceiling of the system, and/or play a defense with so much talent that it doesn’t matter what system you throw at it.
Tenn vs UGA last year was a perfect example of that. Heupel’s patch work OL could not get any push against that NFL UGA front, and the system wasn’t going to be of any help against that.
Or Tenn vs UF this year. Tenn had two starting OL out, and Heupel hasn’t been there long enough to build any kind of OL depth.
So UF just thinned out the box, which under the Veer and Shoot calls for a handoff. But even with a thinned out box, Tenn couldn’t run. And struggle to pass with a bad QB and UF defense whose numbers were leveraged to stop the pass.
Those are points where you better have the minimal talent needed to make whatever system you’re running, work. There’s just some systems that require a lot more than others.
Given those who have posted this and those who have given ‘likes’ to it, I’m completely baffled by the posters who come off as being so knowledgeable on college FB claiming that geography is the single most important aspect of a program. Really, in today’s college FB world?
You sure need to add a lot of if’s to that statement for it to be anywhere near accurate.
I think there are a few sub-explanations required.
Like, Miami might be Uconn if not for their geography. They're definitely a prime example of it being significant.
And then you look at a school like Notre Dame, and it's two-fold:
1) They're a national brand, so they're going to do pretty well in spite of it
2) But they're also a northern team, so when they're firing on all cylinders and Alabama, Georgia, and LSU are also firing on all cylinders... well, Notre Dame has absolute no chance.
All in all, it's one of the more important variables and probably right up there with brand.
And it’s the one variable you really can’t control as a coach.
You can be a great motivator. You can be a great teacher of technique. You can have a great offensive/defensive system. You can make great game day decisions.
You control all of those things.
What you don’t control is the talent around Boston College. And you aren’t building a 4* roster having to go that far away.
If you took every P5 roster.
And looked at the average distance from campus to the player’s home address.
You’re going to find that:
1. Most programs don’t go that far to recruit.
2. The ones with the furthest miles away average, are the programs that dominate the “no chance to be a special program” tier of college football.
More so in today’s world. The era of Syracuse bringing in Top 10 ranked recruiting classes are over. And it’s because they are located in Syracuse, NY, and not Atlanta, GA.
Yeah, there are a few northern blue bloods that do okay because their state/region still turns out some decent talent and they can monopolize it. Thing is, that talent starts to feel very overrated when they match up against schools in premium recruiting territory. ND is the exception to every rule you can make about college football but it's not like they're on anyone's list of schools to worry about every January.
It's interesting how geography still matters so much in college football. Why is it you can recruit nationally in basketball, with a lot of "Notre Dame exception" type teams in college hoops but not college football? Is it the lack of an AAU equivalent in football? Do football players differ that much culturally that they want to stay home in Alabama/Lousiana/Florida/Georgia and not go live somewhere else? Hoops is filled with teams like Kentucky, Kansas, Louisville, Uconn that have won national titles largely based on national recruiting.
Basketball is different because you don't have as many mouths to feed and one really good player can elevate the entire program. Kids are more willing to go far away from home to be "that guy" so they can pad their resume for whatever it is the Serbian national league is looking for and make decent bank for a few years.
Some of it is roster size that allows for a greater dispersing of talent.
Some of it is a lack of basketball culture in other areas that you’re pulling from.
Although that is changing somewhat as the SEC starts caring more about basketball.
Even Oklahoma, which is good. And is located near a talent hub state, but not right on top of the talent, has struggled building a complete roster.
Oklahoma has really struggled building trenches that can withstand the trench onslaught that comes BCS/Playoff time.
And that’s because those guys aren’t as available, and while kinda close, Oklahoma is still far enough away from a talent hub that it can’t steal enough of them.
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Yes, I have said this on the basketball board. Basketball recruiting is a million percent different than football. Geography means almost nothing in basketball? Why? Basketball players leave home at 14 or 15 to attend a basketball factory boarding school. They lose that sense of "home." They play national schedules in AAU and HS and already, in some sense, pros, at least in how they are treated. They arent Timmy Football QB or DE from Hometown USA whose dream it was to play for Big State U.
Oklahoma is a good example of a program that recruits pretty widely and ends up with seemingly overrated rosters based on the outcomes. It's not always the case but I'm always a little suspicious of 4-star kids that leave the deep south for middle of the nowhere or the north because I don't think those southern schools let the real superstars think twice about leaving.
something to note as it relates to this thread:
The NCAA as officially voted to eliminate initial counters.
So now there’s almost no reason to carry a bunch of JAGs into their upper class men years.
Every year should be high ceiling guys, and if they aren’t developing, process them out for the next crop of high ceiling guys. Take 30 to 35 players a year.
The NCAA as officially voted to eliminate initial counters.
So now there’s almost no reason to carry a bunch of JAGs into their upper class men years.
Every year should be high ceiling guys, and if they aren’t developing, process them out for the next crop of high ceiling guys. Take 30 to 35 players a year.
A program like Pitt (or any program) absolutely has to cut players if they arent developing or are just a "miss." Taking 12 in the 2022 class has a lot to due why we are in this mess. Remember, PSU cried and complained they could only take 15 per class due to the "sanctions." We we out-did that with our own sanctions.
Do the math. Removing these limits helps the big boys and hurts everybody else. There's only so much talent to go around. If the limits are removed, it's just going to get more and more concentrated. Who would want Bama and Georgia to have no limits? Even if they will cut guys better than a lot of starters in the ACC, getting them to come north will be near impossible anyhow.
The other issue is NIL. How many schools can afford to pay 30-35 recruits every single year? The guys who drop out no longer get paid, but likely the prices go up every year anyhow.
There's simply no easy solution, except for having a staff that is really, really good at recruiting. Every other thing makes no difference.
There’s really no such thing as a rule that doesn’t have some kind of benefit to the blue bloods. Anything good for a team is potentially good for Bama and UGA.
But Bama and UGA need the initial counter less than Pitt. Because their hit rate is higher.
If Bama and Pitt take 25 players a year. And are stuck with those 25.
Which team do you think is going to have a better roster in any given year?
The answer is Bama. Why? Their 25 is going to be made up of 5* and high 4* players.
So they don’t need as many chances.
ND, Michigan and OSU have kids from coast to coast and north to south all over their rosters every year.
LSU was a top 10 team in 2018. Also, Ensminger was the OC for LSU in 2019. He still called the plays. Brady was brought in as passing game coordinator, I think Emsminger knew what he had though.
The Joe Brady hire has been over hyped in the media. He'll tell you that. In reality, a lot of it was simple player development and experience. Don't forget, that LSU team also had Terrace Marshall. They simply trusted Burrow more, They ran more RPO & 5 man protections, spread the field and let talent take over. That doesn't take a genius. And they had shit loads of offensive talent.
Interestingly, it took some time for Jefferson to develop. He wasn't very highly recruited at all.
Thats true, and OSU truly gets great Florida players especially. But OSU still benefits from being the strongest HS football state north of Mason Dixon. 7 of 21 in the 2023 class were from Ohio, a couple from bordering states. 7 more for 2024 already. Their top three rated players from 2022 were all from Ohio.
90s Nebraska and Notre Dame are the two great exceptions for national title contender teams who rely almost entirely on non local talent. Both have very specific reasons hard to replicate.
Colorado as well.
I’d put Penn State in there as well. They recruit at a very good level. Probably the top of the that tier just under there elite tier. But they cannot breakthrough to the elite tier because it requires winning some battles in the south that geography stops them from winning.
The schools in the South probably have the most effective NIL situations, as well, since they had infrastructure in place. It's just so hard to get real talent to leave the area. The average school has literally no chance at them.
PSU benefits from being able to recruit NJ, MD/VA, and PA from where it sits. Similar to Pitt but sadly at a higher level.
WVU is unique in its inability to rely on local recruits too but their last close call to national relevance (until 13-9) was imho more about Rich Rod being a step ahead schematically, which usually evens out and returns to talent first due to the copy cat factor.
but that only gets them so far. Because they are too far away from a premier talent hub.
Penn State has the talent of a team made up of getting the top tier best players from some good to below average talent states.
UGA has the talent of a team that gets the top tier best players from the surrounding top tier best talent hub.
Taking the "program prestige" out of the equation, then yes, geography is most important. People are disagreeing with this? The SEC benefits from the southern football culture along with a high concentration of good athletes. OSU is better than PSU mostly because Ohio HS football is better than PA HS football.
I dont know if we have the dumbest fanbase in football or not, but it has to be CLOSE if not.
Recruiting rankings are almost always more about quantity than quality, as our numbers show.
In Narduzzi's 10 years of recruiting :
When we have > 20 recruits we average a rating of 31.0
When we have < 20 recruits we average a 55.6 rating.
Sure, that counts this year and 2015 class which was probably more Chryst and his dismal 65 ranking, but without those 2 our averages more to even better on both.
Last year's recruiting class has to be the worst in school history. And that was the first full cycle after winning the ACC. Maybe only 1 legit P5 starter in an entire class. This is recruiting malpractice.
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