Wake Forest +6 vs. Pittsburgh
Color me skeptical about Pitt, a one-trick pony that runs the ball at a high level but doesn’t do much else. My adjusted line is Wake Forest -3, showing significant value on the home ‘dogs. While you don’t think of these teams as close to even, they actually have an identical 5.5 second-order wins, because Pitt (6-4) has been a little lucky and Wake (5-5) has been a little unlucky.
So it wasn’t a surprise to read earlier this week that that this line had dropped despite 75% of tickets being purchased on Pitt. It doesn’t take a Vegas expert to see that this game is setting up to be a Pros vs. Joes affair at the counter.
Wake Forest has an efficient-but-not-explosive offense that runs the ball effectively. The advanced passing stats aren’t as good, though most of them were accrued by Sam Hartman, who’s now out for the year. Dual-threat QB Jamie Newman flashed in last week’s upset win over NC State (22-33 for 297 yards and three TD with 44 rushing yards).
If Wake can carry the momentum from that win over, they’ll win their sixth game and qualify for a bowl game. From a matchup perspective, Wake’s shoddy run defense against Pitt’s stellar rushing offense is by far and away our biggest fear here. Pitt is absolutely going to rip off some explosive runs, which Wake gives up regularly, but the Demon Deacons are top-45 in S&P+’s four non-explosion rush defense categories and should hopefully be able to drop Pitt into several third-and-long situations that the Panthers struggle in.
Meanwhile, Pitt’s defense is almost as bad. The Panthers struggle against the pass in particular, and I think star Wake WR Greg Dortsch is about to have a huge game. Wake plays at the fastest pace of any team in the entire nation, while Pitt ranks in the bottom-10. If Wake’s pass offense starts to get going, the Deacs could force Pitt into the kind of basketball game that they prefer to play.
I think we’re headed for a shootout, and I think Wake has a better chance to emerge with the victory than the Vegas moneyline odds suggest.
Color me skeptical about Pitt, a one-trick pony that runs the ball at a high level but doesn’t do much else. My adjusted line is Wake Forest -3, showing significant value on the home ‘dogs. While you don’t think of these teams as close to even, they actually have an identical 5.5 second-order wins, because Pitt (6-4) has been a little lucky and Wake (5-5) has been a little unlucky.
So it wasn’t a surprise to read earlier this week that that this line had dropped despite 75% of tickets being purchased on Pitt. It doesn’t take a Vegas expert to see that this game is setting up to be a Pros vs. Joes affair at the counter.
Wake Forest has an efficient-but-not-explosive offense that runs the ball effectively. The advanced passing stats aren’t as good, though most of them were accrued by Sam Hartman, who’s now out for the year. Dual-threat QB Jamie Newman flashed in last week’s upset win over NC State (22-33 for 297 yards and three TD with 44 rushing yards).
If Wake can carry the momentum from that win over, they’ll win their sixth game and qualify for a bowl game. From a matchup perspective, Wake’s shoddy run defense against Pitt’s stellar rushing offense is by far and away our biggest fear here. Pitt is absolutely going to rip off some explosive runs, which Wake gives up regularly, but the Demon Deacons are top-45 in S&P+’s four non-explosion rush defense categories and should hopefully be able to drop Pitt into several third-and-long situations that the Panthers struggle in.
Meanwhile, Pitt’s defense is almost as bad. The Panthers struggle against the pass in particular, and I think star Wake WR Greg Dortsch is about to have a huge game. Wake plays at the fastest pace of any team in the entire nation, while Pitt ranks in the bottom-10. If Wake’s pass offense starts to get going, the Deacs could force Pitt into the kind of basketball game that they prefer to play.
I think we’re headed for a shootout, and I think Wake has a better chance to emerge with the victory than the Vegas moneyline odds suggest.
