Saturday Night Bubble Anaylsis (update)
- Thread starter Sean Miller Fan
- Start date
Yes! This is what March basketball is all about.
Conference Tournaments are sometimes a crap shoot when it comes to which teams come to play and which teams mail it in.
NC State
BC
Pitt
UVA
Wake
All those teams came to fight. Clemson and Syracuse were no-shows. I missed some of the second round, but the GaTech/Notre Dame game was also a very good, hard fought game. Tech was a little late to the fight, but they started scrapping too.
This has been a highly entertaining tournament, imo.
Been a very good tournament, and it shows how difficult this conference actually is to win in.
Cormac Ryan has really struggled with his shot against Pitt & NCSU. Some really good looks and he hasn't been all that close.
Early in the game last night they said that he had made 10 of his last 13 threes. He went 1-6 against us, and 1-5 tonight.
So who had Temple and Duquesne as the most likely PA schools to make the NCAA Tournament when the week began?
Re-analyzing this tonight:
Need to eliminate 6 from that list with the Oregon and NC St wins. So, lets play this out.
Who do you eliminate
1. Indiana State - this is obvious. In another year, that resume warrants the token mid-major at-large bid. But this is the best ever bubble. No chance they get in. That resume last year probably gets them in. Not this year.
2. Seton Hall - 65 NET is just too low. Had great wins over UConn and Marquette but had a ton of opportunities and are 9-11 in Q1/2. Pitt got in at 67 last year but there was literally no P6 ahead of them had a resume even remotely close to them. They got in by default almost. Weak bubble.
3. Providence - 57 NET is too low. They have nice wins and no Q3/4 losses but 9-13 in Q1/2. Lots of opportunities and didnt do enough.
These 3 are the most obvious. Then it gets tricky because we need to eliminate 3 more.
4. UVa - good record, no bad losses. 10-10 in Q1/2 isnt bad but bad NET, bad analytics, but no high profile wins. Florida I guess but nothing jumps out at you.
Now it gets extra tricky. Might as well pick out of a hat.
5. FAU - NET is going to tank tonight. 25-8 is a great record but they have 2 Q4 losses and a loss to 20-loss Temple (if Temple loses tomorrow) who is only a few spots away from Q4. Just an atrocious loss. Arizona win is great but they only have 2 wins against the field.
This last one is so hard. I could go several ways including Pitt. The resumes are so close. Gotta say bye to Oklahoma. They played literally 50% of their schedule in Q1 and only won 4. They didnt have any losses outside Q1 but also only had 16 games outside Q1 which is like the fewest in the country. With a bubble this strong, I cant award a bid to someone simply for showing up. And they only have 2 wins vs the field, both at home. Cant do it.
Need to eliminate 6 from that list with the Oregon and NC St wins. So, lets play this out.
Who do you eliminate
1. Indiana State - this is obvious. In another year, that resume warrants the token mid-major at-large bid. But this is the best ever bubble. No chance they get in. That resume last year probably gets them in. Not this year.
2. Seton Hall - 65 NET is just too low. Had great wins over UConn and Marquette but had a ton of opportunities and are 9-11 in Q1/2. Pitt got in at 67 last year but there was literally no P6 ahead of them had a resume even remotely close to them. They got in by default almost. Weak bubble.
3. Providence - 57 NET is too low. They have nice wins and no Q3/4 losses but 9-13 in Q1/2. Lots of opportunities and didnt do enough.
These 3 are the most obvious. Then it gets tricky because we need to eliminate 3 more.
4. UVa - good record, no bad losses. 10-10 in Q1/2 isnt bad but bad NET, bad analytics, but no high profile wins. Florida I guess but nothing jumps out at you.
Now it gets extra tricky. Might as well pick out of a hat.
5. FAU - NET is going to tank tonight. 25-8 is a great record but they have 2 Q4 losses and a loss to 20-loss Temple (if Temple loses tomorrow) who is only a few spots away from Q4. Just an atrocious loss. Arizona win is great but they only have 2 wins against the field.
This last one is so hard. I could go several ways including Pitt. The resumes are so close. Gotta say bye to Oklahoma. They played literally 50% of their schedule in Q1 and only won 4. They didnt have any losses outside Q1 but also only had 16 games outside Q1 which is like the fewest in the country. With a bubble this strong, I cant award a bid to someone simply for showing up. And they only have 2 wins vs the field, both at home. Cant do it.
Bumping this to compare to last BM update. We differ on 2. I have Pitt & St. John's over FAU & Oklahoma
Dayton blows. They have one good player, the 5 is pretty good. The other 4 blow including Nate.
FAU done. Why do I have to do everything? They and UVa had no business in this tournament but they both beat Texas A&M on Halloween so that's all that's required.
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