Schedule Prediction

[DC_Area_Panther]

OOC: Fourteen Games--prediction is four a 12-2 record (losses to @Iowa & WVU)

ACC: Eighteen Games-- prediction 2-3 wins (likely out of BC, Georgia Tech & Wake).

Final record 14-18 or 15-17.

 

[ameoba defense]

Looking at the schedule, if you're counting Pitt-Johnstown, I see what should be 10 sure wins. I also see one sure loss (no need to say who it is). That leaves 3 swing games. DC has Iowa as a loss. I know it's road game, but Iowa is not expected to be anything special this year. Most predictions have them down around 10 or 11 in the Big 10. The road is always tough, but if Pitt is improved, this is a game we have a chance at. Second is St. Louis. St. Louis is loaded. The biggest question mark is the coach. They are at worst, the co-favorite in the A10, along with Davidson. Pitt will be an underdog here, and this would be a very good win for Pitt. Third is Duquesne. Duquesne appears to finally have decided to stop being the biggest joke in town. They spent the money to bring in a good coach, and he's done a good job of upgrading the roster. They have no seniors, and are probably a year away from having their best squad at least since Bruce Atkins was there, maybe since the era of the Nelson twins, when they were a semi elite program. This year though, they are very hard to predict because of all the new faces. One prognosticator described them as a team with a low floor, but a high ceiling, which is probably right. If this were a normal Pitt team, I wouldn't be worried, but with the spot Pitt is in, this is a dangerous game, and by no means the usual gimme. These three games will tell us a lot. Win all three, and we'll probably have a winning season. Two wins would give me great confidence going forward. One win would be mildly disappointing, be we know it's a long road ahead of us. Getting swept would lead me to believe that the ACC schedule is going to be a nightmare.

 

[steel_curtain]

Looking at the schedule, if you're counting Pitt-Johnstown, I see what should be 10 sure wins. I also see one sure loss (no need to say who it is). That leaves 3 swing games. DC has Iowa as a loss. I know it's road game, but Iowa is not expected to be anything special this year. Most predictions have them down around 10 or 11 in the Big 10. The road is always tough, but if Pitt is improved, this is a game we have a chance at. Second is St. Louis. St. Louis is loaded. The biggest question mark is the coach. They are at worst, the co-favorite in the A10, along with Davidson. Pitt will be an underdog here, and this would be a very good win for Pitt. Third is Duquesne. Duquesne appears to finally have decided to stop being the biggest joke in town. They spent the money to bring in a good coach, and he's done a good job of upgrading the roster. They have no seniors, and are probably a year away from having their best squad at least since Bruce Atkins was there, maybe since the era of the Nelson twins, when they were a semi elite program. This year though, they are very hard to predict because of all the new faces. One prognosticator described them as a team with a low floor, but a high ceiling, which is probably right. If this were a normal Pitt team, I wouldn't be worried, but with the spot Pitt is in, this is a dangerous game, and by no means the usual gimme. These three games will tell us a lot. Win all three, and we'll probably have a winning season. Two wins would give me great confidence going forward. One win would be mildly disappointing, be we know it's a long road ahead of us. Getting swept would lead me to believe that the ACC schedule is going to be a nightmare.

-Luke Garza had a 10lb cyst taken out of his spleen this month. He is Iowa's 2nd best player and probably doubtful for the Pitt game. He isnt close to being cleared to even practice

-St. Louis is expected to be pretty good. Although expecting and doing are 2 different things

-I think we give West Virginia a game

-The bare minimum expectation in the non-conference schedule should be 10 wins out of 13. We have no business losing to Duquense. If this team is focused, we got a shot at 12. Im not even thinking about the ACC which I think is overrated preseason. I *want* 11+ non conference wins. I think the team can do it.

 

[ameoba defense]

-Luke Garza had a 10lb cyst taken out of his spleen this month. He is Iowa's 2nd best player and probably doubtful for the Pitt game. He isnt close to being cleared to even practice

-St. Louis is expected to be pretty good. Although expecting and doing are 2 different things

-I think we give West Virginia a game

-The bare minimum expectation in the non-conference schedule should be 10 wins out of 13. We have no business losing to Duquense. If this team is focused, we got a shot at 12. Im not even thinking about the ACC which I think is overrated preseason. I *want* 11+ non conference wins. I think the team can do it.

While I expect to be better, I just can't see any scenario where we can go to Morgantown, and give them a real challenge. If we can just make them work into the second half, I'll be pleased. I agree with St. Louis. They haven't done it yet, but conversely, I won't be shocked if they handle us without too much trouble. As for Duquesne, because of where the Pitt program is, and the fact that most expect the Dukes to be better, I can't put that game in the gimme column. Can Pitt win it? Of course, but a loss won't stun me. I didn't think much of Iowa before this news, now I really think Pitt can get that game.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

At a minimum, I have to believe this team will be much improved over last season because--

1. Significantly better guards, especially at the 1 and 2 spots.

2. Maturity of returning wing players 3s and combo 3-4s.

3. Great depth at guard and wing allowing Pitt to run and apply pressure almost continuously which is the way a team should play when they lack much inside presence. I will be unpleasantly surprised if Capel only gives 7-8 players significant minutes. I think he goes 9-10 deep regularly to try and wear down opponents.

4. Capel should be a better in-game coach than Stallings. It shouldnt be hard based on what we experienced last season.

The above being said I am not sure what this improvement translates to in terms of wins. I do think it should mean about 10 wins OOC vs last seasons 8 and a few ACC wins (vs 0 last season) with a double digit number of wins overall by season's end.

 

[Chescat]

Although it's hard to get a true assessment until we actually see them
play a game or two, I basically agree with your post. I too see major
improvement in the backcourt where we have numbers and more talent.
How much we actually improve up front will be key to our success.
Maybe 10 wins in OOC and hopefully a few ACC wins is a reasonable
expectation IMO.

 

[MyNameisJoe]

-
-I think we give West Virginia a game
.

Love you and your enthusiasm, but - no. Just no lol

 

[steel_curtain]

Love you and your enthusiasm, but - no. Just no lol

-We'll see. West Virginia was complete ass the three years right before Carter and Miles got on their campus and gave them a huge 4 year run. We'll see what press Virginia does without one of the best guards in Big 12 history in Jevon Carter. They got 2 senior guards leaving with tons of accolades and they are getting replaced with freshmen. You can have all the stud bigs in the world but without quality guards your ship is sunk. They better have quality guards ready to play (impact freshmen) or they are going to be the most overrated team in college basketball this year. We shall see

 

[MyNameisJoe]

-We'll see. West Virginia was complete ass the three years right before Carter and Miles got on their campus and gave them a huge 4 year run. We'll see what press Virginia does without one of the best guards in Big 12 history in Jevon Carter. They got 2 senior guards leaving with tons of accolades and they are getting replaced with freshmen. You can have all the stud bigs in the world but without quality guards your ship is sunk. They better have quality guards ready to play (impact freshmen) or they are going to be the most overrated team in college basketball this year. We shall see

I hear ya - I just don't see how we will score against them (not literally of course). This may be Huggy's best defensive front since the old Cinci days, pre Kenyon Martin leg break good. Although, where did they come in at pre-season...barely top 25? Obviously they should beat Pitt by double digits, but I can at least agree with you that their guard play is a huge question mark, but won't our's be just as big? Hope you're right.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Over the top way too early speculation on my part--But, I believe we might press WVU back as hard as they press us.

You never know what is going to happen when you do the same thing to a team that they are used to doing to other teams. Lots of pressing teams don't like to be pressed and don't do well when they are pressed by an opponent. If that strategy is effective and produces enough turnovers, it tends to offset front court advantage since it doesn't leave as much opportunity for either team to play half court offense or defense where more talented bigs can make a large difference--think Shaka Smart's past VCU teams creating "chaos."

As I say up front, we don't know what will happen so we shall see.

 

[4Mark_Marty]

The entire ACC schedule is a gauntlet. Wow is the conference good too to bottom. No gimmes for anybody really.

 

[Chescat]

Over the top way too early speculation on my part--But, I believe we might press WVU back as hard as they press us.

You never know what is going to happen when you do the same thing to a team that they are used to doing to other teams. Lots of pressing teams don't like to be pressed and don't do well when they are pressed by an opponent. If that strategy is effective and produces enough turnovers, it tends to offset front court advantage since it doesn't leave as much opportunity for either team to play half court offense or defense where more talented bigs can make a large difference--think Shaka Smart's past VCU teams creating "chaos."

As I say up front, we don't know what will happen so we shall see.

You make a good point, but the flip side says..... a team that presses, practices
it on a daily basis and knows the strengths and weaknesses of it. Usually that
team hopes that the opposition would actually press them in a game.
When it works against them, despite practicing it every day, it's usually talent
that takes over.

Two examples: 1. go ahead and play a zone against Syracuse or
2. try and press Pitino's Louisville team when he was there.

With that said, I totally agree with using it, as you said "to offset front
court advantage." Also, as we all know, sometimes none of this holds
true. Just look at last year's game against WVU where we played them
even for most of the game. THAT was mind boggling, LOL

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

You make a good point, but the flip side says..... a team that presses, practices
it on a daily basis and knows the strengths and weaknesses of it. Usually that
team hopes that the opposition would actually press them in a game.
When it works against them, despite practicing it every day, it's usually talent
that takes over.

Two examples: 1. go ahead and play a zone against Syracuse or
2. try and press Pitino's Louisville team when he was there.

With that said, I totally agree with using it, as you said "to offset front
court advantage." Also, as we all know, sometimes none of this holds
true. Just look at last year's game against WVU where we played them
even for most of the game. THAT was mind boggling, LOL

Good points. Hopefully we are going to press every opponent since that is the best approach when you are thin and weak in the front court.

Again, hopefully the athleticism of Johnson, N'Dir and McGowens will make that approach feasible since it could not have been done with last year's weak back court.

 

[steel_curtain]

You make a good point, but the flip side says..... a team that presses, practices
it on a daily basis and knows the strengths and weaknesses of it. Usually that
team hopes that the opposition would actually press them in a game.
When it works against them, despite practicing it every day, it's usually talent
that takes over.

Two examples: 1. go ahead and play a zone against Syracuse or
2. try and press Pitino's Louisville team when he was there.

With that said, I totally agree with using it, as you said "to offset front
court advantage." Also, as we all know, sometimes none of this holds
true. Just look at last year's game against WVU where we played them
even for most of the game. THAT was mind boggling, LOL

-Not exactly as I recently rewatched most of that game to see what really happened. West Virginia was beating us by 20. Carter, their all american all star do everything guard, got into foul trouble. We proceeded to crush them in the next 10 minutes and the lead was cut to 2 points in the closing minutes of the game. Then WV and Carter pulled away.

-No more Carter for West Virginia, he's long gone

 

[Chescat]

Good points. Hopefully we are going to press every opponent since that is the best approach when you are thin and weak in the front court.

Again, hopefully the athleticism of Johnson, N'Dir and McGowens will make that approach feasible since it could not have been done with last year's weak back court.

I too want to see us pressing, given that we have numbers and "athleticism" in our backcourt. Great athleticism can sometimes even the playing field on the defensive
end, and certainly when pressing. On the other hand, good coaching and talent
can usually handle most presses since most presses rely on double teams. Once
a press starts getting beat and giving up lay ups, it's time to try something else.
I expect us to press and go up tempo, but I also expect to see coaches having their
teams prepared for this. What we go to next after a team beats our press
will be telling. Good coaches handle the presses they see.It'll be interesting, Capel has his work cut out, that's for sure.

 

[Chescat]

-Not exactly as I recently rewatched most of that game to see what really happened. West Virginia was beating us by 20. Carter, their all american all star do everything guard, got into foul trouble. We proceeded to crush them in the next 10 minutes and the lead was cut to 2 points in the closing minutes of the game. Then WV and Carter pulled away.

-No more Carter for West Virginia, he's long gone

The fact that we "crushed them in the next ten minutes" and cut the lead to
two near the end of the game was "mind boggling" to me...with or without
Carter. The rest of their team was far superior to what we had, so what we did was
truly surprising.
I agree that Carter was great, but IMO his absence this year doesn't exactly put
us on a level playing field with them. I would love to be wrong and see us go down
there and beat their asses,....but realistically?

 

[VincePITT]

I see Pitt doubling their total form last seasons 8 wins!