Sincere Edwards Hits the Portal

[lilspainishflea]

Ohio State, Michigan, UGA, Bama, LSU, Texas--all have far more purchasing power than PSU. Michigan just paid one kid 12 mill and their wallet is still wide open. So I don't think PSU's place in the hierarchy is going to change much.

They do but I think there's going to be extreme diminishing returns on some of these players. Like would you rather have a $12 million QB or 5 players worth $1 million each? What's the WAR on the QB? Can you even build a Super Team a year at a time? That approach doesn't seem to be guaranteed n many pro sports so are we certain it will work here?

The money helps, agreed. You'd rather have more than less. But I'm theorizing that perhaps Franklin's guys aren't quite good enough for them all be lured away and that overall roster consistency could end up being superior to roster talent disparity for one year at a single position.

 

[thebadby2]

Maybe, but someone who was good enough to produce at Pitt to the tune of a new team willing to pay them 6 figure should still function as an adequate backup.

Sure, but adequate backups don't make the league.

 

[lilspainishflea]

I think at least some of the current lack of juggernaut landscape can be attributable to there not being many good quarterbacks at the moment. Like, if Ohio State had a Fields or Alabama had a Young, etc. I think that changes their outlook quite a bit.

I've heard plenty of people say it's because no one has any depth because guys who aren't starting transfer... but then you'll hear others say that schools like Pitt can't compete because teams will overpay their starters just to stash them as backups.

So I don't know. Tough to say what has merit and what is just the natural ebb and flow of it all (there have been past seasons when no one team was all that great). But I do know that if you stick a future top ten draft pick at QB on some of these teams they'd get a lot better quickly.

I don't think a lot of guys are being paid to get stashed as a backup. That's probably a niche for a few but most wany to go to the NFL.

I think Pitt's problem is twofold: 1) we recruit against a lot of really good teams and to the extent that we win one, they can always just outbid us in year 2; and 2) it seems like we don't have deep NIL pockets so many kids might get better pay at Colorado or UCF. We've always faced #1 as a problem but now we're also facing #2. We'd rarely worry about a kid going cross-country or down a level in competition 10 years ago but the talent field is way more national than it used to be because NIL and playing time are the only things that matter. And we can only offer one of those.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Sure, but adequate backups don't make the league.

But my point was that people are saying the lack of juggernaut teams is because they have no depth. I'm just saying that a guy like Jules or DeShields should be just fine as a rotational piece at a big-time school, so I'm not sure that it's the entire reason these teams aren't all that great at the moment. Alabama, Georgia, etc. have always had two-deep guys who aren't NFL talents.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I don't think a lot of guys are being paid to get stashed as a backup. That's probably a niche for a few but most wany to go to the NFL.

I think Pitt's problem is twofold: 1) we recruit against a lot of really good teams and to the extent that we win one, they can always just outbid us in year 2; and 2) it seems like we don't have deep NIL pockets so many kids might get better pay at Colorado or UCF. We've always faced #1 as a problem but now we're also facing #2. We'd rarely worry about a kid going cross-country or down a level in competition 10 years ago but the talent field is way more national than it used to be because NIL and playing time are the only things that matter. And we can only offer one of those.

I don't see us winning very many battles at all against the big boys anymore as it pertains to high school recruiting, and that's where I think there is room for the most improvement. I don't think solid/high 3-stars are making money hand over fist or anything, so we should be getting more of them. Because...

As much as #2 is a problem, we've kept a lot more guys than we have lost. Once they're here and established/succeeding, I believe they become much less inclined to leave. Any many of the ones who have left, in my opinion, have done so for reasons that span beyond merely chasing a bigger bag.

I think Addison genuinely didn't like what Cignetti was doing on offense. I think Hayes genuinely thought this team would suck. Not saying they didn't milk the situations for money as well. But obviously guys like Reid, Holstein, Louis, Biles, Johnson, Bartholomew last season, etc. all could get more money elsewhere if they really pursued it enough. But once you get them in the fold, you're more likely to keep them.

 

[thebadby2]

They do but I think there's going to be extreme diminishing returns on some of these players. Like would you rather have a $12 million QB or 5 players worth $1 million each? What's the WAR on the QB? Can you even build a Super Team a year at a time? That approach doesn't seem to be guaranteed n many pro sports so are we certain it will work here?

The money helps, agreed. You'd rather have more than less. But I'm theorizing that perhaps Franklin's guys aren't quite good enough for them all be lured away and that overall roster consistency could end up being superior to roster talent disparity for one year at a single position.

$12 million QB or 5 players worth $1 million each?

Just using Michigan as an example, they will have both, and it will be more like 20 players making over a million on their team. They have over 200 mill in NIL funding. That's the way the big dogs are gonna run in this NIL era. PSU ain't one of those, there's no Larry Ellison, Larry Page, Charlie Munger, Alfred Taubman or Stephen Ross at PSU, multi-billionaires that can fund huge NIL payrolls without hesitation.

Yes, they can regularly make the playoffs with 1-2 losses, but they will still be a stepchild to the big money blue blood programs, and that will be reflected in the end results.

 

[thebadby2]

But my point was that people are saying the lack of juggernaut teams is because they have no depth. I'm just saying that a guy like Jules or DeShields should be just fine as a rotational piece at a big-time school, so I'm not sure that it's the entire reason these teams aren't all that great at the moment. Alabama, Georgia, etc. have always had two-deep guys who aren't NFL talents.

Alabama, Georgia and OSU have also always had many 2 deep guys who are first round NFL talents, just younger guys waiting their turn behind an older first round NFL talent. That has not changed. What has changed with those programs are, in Bama's case, they have a new coach replacing the greatest college football coach of all time, in UGA's case they have had uncharacteristically erratic QB play, and in OSU's case, it's a combo of a young O line and lesser caliber QB than they're used to. Nothing else has changed, they are all still stacked with future NFL guys all over the place. A guy like DeSHields wouldn't even be abe to get on the field on special teams for those programs.

 

[thebadby2]

I don't see us winning very many battles at all against the big boys anymore as it pertains to high school recruiting, and that's where I think there is room for the most improvement. I don't think solid/high 3-stars are making money hand over fist or anything, so we should be getting more of them. Because...

As much as #2 is a problem, we've kept a lot more guys than we have lost. Once they're here and established/succeeding, I believe they become much less inclined to leave. Any many of the ones who have left, in my opinion, have done so for reasons that span beyond merely chasing a bigger bag.

I think Addison genuinely didn't like what Cignetti was doing on offense. I think Hayes genuinely thought this team would suck. Not saying they didn't milk the situations for money as well. But obviously guys like Reid, Holstein, Louis, Biles, Johnson, Bartholomew last season, etc. all could get more money elsewhere if they really pursued it enough. But once you get them in the fold, you're more likely to keep them.

Yeah, with Addison the timing--leaving right after spring ball--suggests he got a taste of what life with Cig and Jurk was going to look like--and Lincoln Riley was actively pursuing him, tampering certainly--so he made a smart business decision to GTFO of there. At that time the NIL rules were even murkier than they are now, and most schools had not yet weaponized them. If NIL was like it is now, Addison would have announced he was hitting the portal the minute the regular season ended, and would have had 20 major programs climbing all over themselves for his services.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Alabama, Georgia and OSU have also always had many 2 deep guys who are first round NFL talents, just younger guys waiting their turn behind an older first round NFL talent. That has not changed. What has changed with those programs are, in Bama's case, they have a new coach replacing the greatest college football coach of all time, in UGA's case they have had uncharacteristically erratic QB play, and in OSU's case, it's a combo of a young O line and lesser caliber QB than they're used to. Nothing else has changed, they are all still stacked with future NFL guys all over the place. A guy like DeSHields wouldn't even be abe to get on the field on special teams for those programs.

The argument that has been made - including by Nick Saban himself on College Game Day - is that the talent is more spread out across the board because guys who aren't starting at places like Alabama by year two or three are just transferring, so they're having to resort to playing freshmen and/or not going as deep, which causes d-linemen to be gassed at the end of the games.

I'm only stating what the argument is. I'm not necessarily saying I agree with it. I agree that there are probably other factors, especially including less-than-great QB play going on.

I disagree that guys like DeShields couldn't get on the field at Alabama and the like, though. Experienced depth is always valued by those schools. Hell, Nakia Griffin-Stewart had a Bama offer when he transferred from Rutgers, as I recall.

 

[lilspainishflea]

The argument that has been made - including by Nick Saban himself on College Game Day - is that the talent is more spread out across the board because guys who aren't starting at places like Alabama by year two or three are just transferring, so they're having to resort to playing freshman and/or not going as deep, which causes d-linemen to be gassed at the end of the games.

I'm only stating what the argument is. I'm not necessarily saying I agree with it. I agree that there are probably other factors, especially including less-than-great QB play going on.

I disagree that guys like DeShields couldn't get on the field at Alabama and the like, though. Experienced depth is always valued by those schools. Hell, Nakia Griffin-Stewart had a Bama offer when he transferred from Rutgers, as I recall.

The money might lead to slightly worse QB-play, as well. Because it's an extra complication.

Pre-NIL, you'd go to either: 1) your highest offer; or 2) the school with coaching/scheme best suited to your skills. This probably led to a fairly efficient result on the field.

Post-NIL, do you still go #1 or #2 or do you pick door #3 and chase the bag? And if you do chase the bag, is there enough left to also sign the OL and WR that you need to hit your ceiling?

And that doesn't even include NIL pushing out talented offensive coaches who don't want to deal with the headache. Or maybe being replaced by coaches who are good at financial organization required by NIL but less good at coaching (but their NIL skills somewhat compensate for that).

Anyway, it's a bit galaxy brained but I can definitely see circumstances where NIL actually makes the product on the field worse.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

The money might lead to slightly worse QB-play, as well. Because it's an extra complication.

Pre-NIL, you'd go to either: 1) your highest offer; or 2) the school with coaching/scheme best suited to your skills. This probably led to a fairly efficient result on the field.

Post-NIL, do you still go #1 or #2 or do you pick door #3 and chase the bag? And if you do chase the bag, is there enough left to also sign the OL and WR that you need to hit your ceiling?

And that doesn't even include NIL pushing out talented offensive coaches who don't want to deal with the headache. Or maybe being replaced by coaches who are good at financial organization required by NIL but less good at coaching (but their NIL skills somewhat compensate for that).

Anyway, it's a bit galaxy brained but I can definitely see circumstances where NIL actually makes the product on the field worse.

I think the Alabamas, Georgias, Ohio States, etc. of the world are still getting the 4 and 5-star quarterbacks; there just aren't many good ones (in the entire country) at the moment.

Like, look at Ohio State for instance...

They basically pushed McCord (high 4-star) out...
Julian Sayin is a 5-star...
Lincoln Kienholz is a 4-star...
Air Noland is a high 4-star...

And they're opting to go with Will Howard (who was more or less pushed out by Kansas State), a modest 3-star from little old Downingtown, PA.

Like if there were QBs at lesser schools tearing it up then I'd say that checks out. I just think there are so few right now, for whatever reason, that even the big fish are settling for some mids.

 

[NKSplitter]

That's the way the big dogs are gonna run in this NIL era. PSU ain't one of those, there's no Larry Ellison, Larry Page, Charlie Munger, Alfred Taubman or Stephen Ross at PSU, multi-billionaires that can fund huge NIL payrolls without hesitation.

Unfortunately for Illinois, they had a Larry Ellison; but did not have his girlfriend. Probably not the last case to simping playing a roll in NIL donations.

 

[pittbb80]

i hate to admit it but im finding myself thinking like this more and more. i really like narduzzi too but man, im just thinking it's time for a change.

I also admit that i have very little faith that our beloved pitt can find a better HC and will most assuredly F it up like we always seem to do.

Agree. One of Duzzs strengths was his ability to keep the roster together. Given the recent transfer announcements it appears he’s failing at that as well. Despite Eli and Reid coming back next years team looks like it’s going to be awful I’ve gotten to the point where it’s not even worth spending the energy talking about it

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

Agree. One of Duzzs strengths was his ability to keep the roster together. Given the recent transfer announcements it appears he’s failing at that as well. Despite Eli and Reid coming back next years team looks like it’s going to be awful I’ve gotten to the point where it’s not even worth spending the energy talking about it

man i dont know, i'd bet that the average portal entrees for every P4 school is well into the teens. Are we really losing more players than most P4 programs?

I dont know to be honest but i'd bet we are probably around the average. if im wrong, i'd be happy to admit it.

 

[thebadby2]

Unfortunately for Illinois, they had a Larry Ellison; but did not have his girlfriend. Probably not the last case to simping playing a roll in NIL donations.

No amount of money could ever buy Illinois a national championship. Unfortunately that’s true for all but about a dozen programs, one of which is Michigan.

 

[pittbb80]

man i dont know, i'd bet that the average portal entrees for every P4 school is well into the teens. Are we really losing more players than most P4 programs?

I dont know to be honest but i'd bet we are probably around the average. if im wrong, i'd be happy to admit it.

Yeah it’s not so much losing guys but being able to replace them. I guess we’ll see. Clearly this is a critical year for Duzz

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

man i dont know, i'd bet that the average portal entrees for every P4 school is well into the teens. Are we really losing more players than most P4 programs?

I dont know to be honest but i'd bet we are probably around the average. if im wrong, i'd be happy to admit it.

DE is a crucial position in a Pat Narduzzi defense, so we can't just lose our best young DE every year and expect to be okay. Feels like we're just going to keep trotting the same old 6-6ish-quality team out there until kingdom come, rather than be able to build a program and play for peak seasons within a cycle when a bunch of key positions are occupied by talented upperclassmen, etc.

 

[Conemaugh]

you get into the playoffs, you are a NC contender. they have to beat smu and boise and will be in the final 4..

again, the goal is to get into the playoffs and hope you get some good matchups. They dont have to "overspend" tosu to be a contender..

No kidding. Penn State had an easier draw than number 1 overall Oregon.

 

[TD_6082]

Yeah, with Addison the timing--leaving right after spring ball--suggests he got a taste of what life with Cig and Jurk was going to look like--and Lincoln Riley was actively pursuing him, tampering certainly--so he made a smart business decision to GTFO of there. At that time the NIL rules were even murkier than they are now, and most schools had not yet weaponized them. If NIL was like it is now, Addison would have announced he was hitting the portal the minute the regular season ended, and would have had 20 major programs climbing all over themselves for his services.

Addison left in Spring of 22. Jurk didn't get to Pitt until the next year. Jared Wayne had 60 catches and 1000+ yds in 22. (the Slovis/Patti year)

The allure of SoCal, a big bag, and his DMV 7 on 7 bud Caleb Williams was enough to get him to leave. And really, coming back to Pitt, there wasn't anything more he could accomplish than he already had.

 

[TD_6082]

DE is a crucial position in a Pat Narduzzi defense, so we can't just lose our best young DE every year and expect to be okay. Feels like we're just going to keep trotting the same old 6-6ish-quality team out there until kingdom come, rather than be able to build a program and play for peak seasons within a cycle when a bunch of key positions are occupied by talented upperclassmen, etc.

I think that is exactly what is going to happen. I don't think Pitt is going to have any more peak seasons for the foreseeable future. I expect them to hover around 5 to 7 wins most years, with some occasionally better, some occasionally worse. Not trying to be negative. Just realistic.