I have had an ongoing discussion with a friend and fellow Pitt basketball fan whose I opinion I highly value. The following is an edited version my side of such discussion after the Syracuse game on Tuesday.
I thought you might be interested in some work I did this evening using the filter feature in Torvik. It’s an interesting feature. Last year it concluded that, from the game at Duke through Selection Sunday, Pitt was the 19th best team in the country:
https://barttorvik.com/trank.php?year=2024&sort=&hteam=&t2value=&conlimit=All&state=All&begin=20240120&end=20240317&top=0&revquad=0&quad=5&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0#
Torvik tells an interesting story this season as well, but not a pretty one:
https://barttorvik.com/trank.php?year=2025&sort=&hteam=&t2value=&conlimit=All&state=All&begin=20241101&end=20250219&top=0&revquad=0&quad=5&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0#
11/1/24- 11/22/24: 9 (119.8 (O); 90.0 (D)) (Pre-Dunn injury)
11/23/24-1/4/24: 58 (119.3 (O); 103.7 (D)) (Dunn injury I)
11/1/24-1/4/25: 22 (12-2) (119.5(O); 98.0(D)) (through Stanford game)
1/5/25-2/19/25: 129 (4-8) (110.2(O); 106.6 (D)) (Post-Duke)
1/5/25-2/8/25: 117 (2-7) (111.9(O)-106.7(D)) (during Dunn return)
2/1/25-2/19/25: 185 (2-4) (108.0(O); 109.4(D)) (February)
2/11/25-2/19/25: 187 (2-1) (105.1(O); 106.4) (SMU, Miami and Syracuse) (Post-Dunn)
2/15/25-2/19/25: 134 (2-0)(108.1; 104.0) (Miami and Syracuse)
11/1/24-2/19/25: 62 (16-10) (115.1(O); 102.0) (All in)
Conclusions:
On the issue of physicality, Papa has come slower than I would have hoped after the Ohio State game. He seems like a great kid and I see a lot of potential, but it seems like it will be down the road, hopefully here.
Guillermo. I love the twins. Great kids, great teammates. The inability to get stronger is maddening, but it is what it is. When GDG plays with intensity and confidence, as he did at the 5 last night, he is an effective player. What he is not, in my opinion, is a 4. I believe playing Guillermo at the 4 is a material factor in the slow starts and early game passivity. Some version of 25 minutes and 15 between Cam and Guillermo at the 5, depending upon match-ups, foul trouble and who is playing well.
If it were me, I would start Amsal at the 4, which won’t happen, or Cummings and move Austin to the 4, which might. GDG is the kind of great teammate who might be able to deal with this.
10. Cummings. I have been impressed with Beebah, especially his recent ability to push through the freshman wall, his competitiveness and his work to be good enough on defense to stay on the court. He is a scorer, a shooter and an Ish level passer, not great but OK. He has a bright future and could have a meaningful present, as he had the past few games.
11. Jorge. I root for Jorge and I would still give him a few minutes a game to see if he’s shooting with confidence. Being honest, I feel a couple things about Jorge. One, that he would do better at a slightly lower level, the way Nate Santos has had a nice career at Dayton. Second, while I am sure Jorge earned it, I suspect the minutes used on Jorge have helped stunt Amsal’s development.
12. Amsal. You have seen my full write-up of Amsal. Let me talk about last night, which I found both understandable and completely frustrating. I watched the game and also watched the tape and the first half (nearly all of Amsal’s time) a second time. I get that they were desperately trying to win a game they had to win and to do so after a disastrous start. I also get that subs are on a short leash in that setting and that the time for team building is past. And that they found a line-up in the second half that was working. So I don’t really fault what they did.
But I am resistant to the idea that Amsal played poorly last night. In his limited time, he made several positive plays:
A gorgeous pass to Austin for a layup.
Three rebounds in 11 minutes, including a perfect defensive box-out, a rare sight indeed for Pitt, and he looked natural on both boards, especially crashing the offensive boards.
Drew a foul and made the foul shots.
Zero Turnovers
Looked good at the top of the press and helped force a turnover.
Three of his four shots were decent or good shots, he rebounded and drew a foul on one of them, and even the too-fancy reverse layup that got him yanked, while it was a bad judgment, it was the bad judgment of a player who can see things.
It is harder to judge the defense, and he may have had a couple errors vs. what they wanted, but he certainly did not look lost or a general liability.
Given my view that this team needs a change (probably a few changes) to get back on track, and my belief that Amsal (and to a degree Beebah) is the best chance to be that change, I wish it had worked out for Amsal to have played more last night.
There is a month to play and time to salvage the season. They have major work to do on both offense and defense. But the schedule and the raw materials on this team make it possible. This team should be a good offensive basketball team. This team won’t be a great defensive or rebounding team but they can be better.
I thought you might be interested in some work I did this evening using the filter feature in Torvik. It’s an interesting feature. Last year it concluded that, from the game at Duke through Selection Sunday, Pitt was the 19th best team in the country:
https://barttorvik.com/trank.php?year=2024&sort=&hteam=&t2value=&conlimit=All&state=All&begin=20240120&end=20240317&top=0&revquad=0&quad=5&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0#
Torvik tells an interesting story this season as well, but not a pretty one:
https://barttorvik.com/trank.php?year=2025&sort=&hteam=&t2value=&conlimit=All&state=All&begin=20241101&end=20250219&top=0&revquad=0&quad=5&venue=All&type=All&mingames=0#
11/1/24- 11/22/24: 9 (119.8 (O); 90.0 (D)) (Pre-Dunn injury)
11/23/24-1/4/24: 58 (119.3 (O); 103.7 (D)) (Dunn injury I)
11/1/24-1/4/25: 22 (12-2) (119.5(O); 98.0(D)) (through Stanford game)
1/5/25-2/19/25: 129 (4-8) (110.2(O); 106.6 (D)) (Post-Duke)
1/5/25-2/8/25: 117 (2-7) (111.9(O)-106.7(D)) (during Dunn return)
2/1/25-2/19/25: 185 (2-4) (108.0(O); 109.4(D)) (February)
2/11/25-2/19/25: 187 (2-1) (105.1(O); 106.4) (SMU, Miami and Syracuse) (Post-Dunn)
2/15/25-2/19/25: 134 (2-0)(108.1; 104.0) (Miami and Syracuse)
11/1/24-2/19/25: 62 (16-10) (115.1(O); 102.0) (All in)
Conclusions:
- Pitt has been a mediocre team, at best, for a month and a half.
- The defense went away after Dunn first got hurt and has never returned.
- The offense held up well through the first injury but took a big step back after Dunn returned and has not bounced back. This Torvik exercise gave me a greater appreciation of how far and for how long the offense has declined, and how much their still-pretty-good season offensive numbers are based on the performance through January 4.
- The last two wins give them a platform from which they can try to salvage their season. And, as you summarize very well, there were encouraging aspects of each game that provide hope that this could happen. Obviously, it was essential that they won them, and they showed some persistence and grit in doing so. But these were not turnaround performances.
- Comments on individual players. I will skip Damian Dunn since he won’t be available. What a tough break for him.
- Jaland Lowe. We have beaten this subject into the ground and are still on truce 😊 We both want and are hoping for him to have a strong finish to the season.
- Ishmael Leggett. Overall, I think Ish has had a good year. He is their best defender and an excellent rebounding guard. He competes hard and in his way (I suspect more quietly than the coaches would prefer) he leads, including great leadership in these last two do or die games. I think he is a mixed bag and a wildcard on offense. Lots of good plays and a fair number of forced plays. Too many long and contested two-point shots. Not a natural passer but tries and has tried more as the season has gone on. But not a great assist to turnover ratio for a guard. Uneven shooter who almost always takes a lot of shots, Ish has been a key factor in some big wins but also has had some ugly shooting lines, mostly in losses.
- Zach Austin. The most pleasant surprise for me this season. Most improved player, without question. Austin dramatically improved both his shooting and foul shooting. To me, an impactful defender but flashier than he is sound, he is continuing to work hard on improving his defensive focus and soundness and is rebounding more in traffic. Like Ish, he has shown a lot of senior leadership the past two games. Austin also is trying to go outside his comfort zone, especially with more drives and the occasional attempted pass. I have mixed feelings on this. On balance, I would tell him to only drive when he sees a path to the rim and tell him not to try to pass off the drive. I think he is at his best when he plays within himself, even if that’s lower usage and limits their offensive options.
- The Centers. I will speak of these as a group. On the Pitt board, the debate has been whether it was a mistake to take Corhen over Federico. To me, that’s the wrong question. To me, the question was Guillermo or Fede and (even with money issues aside) I would have picked Guillermo as the more complete player with more upside and more years. But Fede was the stronger defender and a great runner, and for the best parts of the last two years he was the starting center, so it was not inarguable. I am still hoping that Guillermo was the right choice.
On the issue of physicality, Papa has come slower than I would have hoped after the Ohio State game. He seems like a great kid and I see a lot of potential, but it seems like it will be down the road, hopefully here.
Guillermo. I love the twins. Great kids, great teammates. The inability to get stronger is maddening, but it is what it is. When GDG plays with intensity and confidence, as he did at the 5 last night, he is an effective player. What he is not, in my opinion, is a 4. I believe playing Guillermo at the 4 is a material factor in the slow starts and early game passivity. Some version of 25 minutes and 15 between Cam and Guillermo at the 5, depending upon match-ups, foul trouble and who is playing well.
If it were me, I would start Amsal at the 4, which won’t happen, or Cummings and move Austin to the 4, which might. GDG is the kind of great teammate who might be able to deal with this.
10. Cummings. I have been impressed with Beebah, especially his recent ability to push through the freshman wall, his competitiveness and his work to be good enough on defense to stay on the court. He is a scorer, a shooter and an Ish level passer, not great but OK. He has a bright future and could have a meaningful present, as he had the past few games.
11. Jorge. I root for Jorge and I would still give him a few minutes a game to see if he’s shooting with confidence. Being honest, I feel a couple things about Jorge. One, that he would do better at a slightly lower level, the way Nate Santos has had a nice career at Dayton. Second, while I am sure Jorge earned it, I suspect the minutes used on Jorge have helped stunt Amsal’s development.
12. Amsal. You have seen my full write-up of Amsal. Let me talk about last night, which I found both understandable and completely frustrating. I watched the game and also watched the tape and the first half (nearly all of Amsal’s time) a second time. I get that they were desperately trying to win a game they had to win and to do so after a disastrous start. I also get that subs are on a short leash in that setting and that the time for team building is past. And that they found a line-up in the second half that was working. So I don’t really fault what they did.
But I am resistant to the idea that Amsal played poorly last night. In his limited time, he made several positive plays:
A gorgeous pass to Austin for a layup.
Three rebounds in 11 minutes, including a perfect defensive box-out, a rare sight indeed for Pitt, and he looked natural on both boards, especially crashing the offensive boards.
Drew a foul and made the foul shots.
Zero Turnovers
Looked good at the top of the press and helped force a turnover.
Three of his four shots were decent or good shots, he rebounded and drew a foul on one of them, and even the too-fancy reverse layup that got him yanked, while it was a bad judgment, it was the bad judgment of a player who can see things.
It is harder to judge the defense, and he may have had a couple errors vs. what they wanted, but he certainly did not look lost or a general liability.
Given my view that this team needs a change (probably a few changes) to get back on track, and my belief that Amsal (and to a degree Beebah) is the best chance to be that change, I wish it had worked out for Amsal to have played more last night.
There is a month to play and time to salvage the season. They have major work to do on both offense and defense. But the schedule and the raw materials on this team make it possible. This team should be a good offensive basketball team. This team won’t be a great defensive or rebounding team but they can be better.
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