Pitt's offense finished the 2014 season strong, and that finish created some optimism for the coming year. With the ACC Player of the Year, one of the nation's top receivers, a quarterback with developing confidence and comfort and an offensive line with a healthy amount of experience and talent, there are plenty of reasons to think the Panthers will pick up on its 36 points-per-game average over the final five games of the 2014.
At the same time, there's a new coordinator and a new offensive staff. That means some changes will be coming. So what will Pitt's offense look like this season? Here are some early signs.
By all indications, there's going to be plenty of pistol and shotgun formations in this offense. I've heard estimations ranging from 50% to 65% to 70% to 75% of the snaps operating with the quarterback not lining up under center. It sounds like it will probably be in the 60-70% range, which is obviously a change from the past.
Still, the pistol formation allows the running back to still line up behind the quarterback, and there's no mistaking that James Conner will be the team's workhorse. Running backs coach Andre Powell told me on Tuesday that his preference is to have three backs ready at all times: one lead back and two backups, although I think he would be okay with having four guys ready, if Qadree Ollison, Chris James and Rachid Ibrahim all prove worthy.
Powell added that he doesn't want to have a designated "third-down back." He thought Conner limited himself by not being up to the task of playing on third down last season, whether that meant blocking, pass-catching or both. So Powell wants all four backs to be proficient in all skills, although he did say he thinks there is some solid pass-catching ability in that group.
However the rotation works out, the main point is the same: Pitt will be a run-based offense. Establishing the run will be the primary goal, and the coaches will look to set up play-action with a strong running game.
Head coach Pat Narduzzi and offensive coordinator Jim Chaney have both referred to their preferences for a pro-style offense, and that's what Pitt will be going for.
At the same time, there will be some different looks, as it sounds like the coaches will try to have some spread formations, maybe even to the point of doing it "frequently." Observers of the first week of spring camp as well as Saturday's scrimmage commented on how often the offense lined up with three and four-receiver sets, not to the extent where that would be called a base package, necessarily, but still frequently enough that it seemed like something Chaney is inclined to use a lot.
So the question becomes, who will fills those three and four-receiver sets? Obviously Tyler Boyd has his position - even if he will likely shift through the various spots - but the Panthers need more than just Boyd. Dontez Ford seems to be playing fairly well through the first week, by most accounts, and with his style of play - he's more physical and seems like an almost-typical "possession receiver" - he could be a nice complement to Boyd.
That leaves a few more positions to fill, though, and that's where the bigger unknowns come in. I have heard some positive things about Elijah Zeise; he made a handful of catches in the scrimmage on Saturday and seems to have caught the coaches' attention. Looking at him during Tuesday's open media window, I still think he looks the part: he has good size (probably 6'2" or so), seems a bit bulkier but hasn't really lost the athleticism that made him a good basketball player at North Allegheny.
I also thought it was interesting that Zeise was the first name - even ahead of Ford - mentioned by receivers coach Kevin Sherman when talking about players the coaches are considering for the position opposite Boyd. Check out the full Sherman interview; lots of good stuff in there (although Sherman may have to fight off defensive coordinator Josh Conklin, who would probably like to see Zeise in the safeties meeting room; if there's a better opportunity to get on the field, Zeise might have to consider it).
From what I've heard, Zach Challingsworth continues to do what I thought of him a year ago: he doesn't really seem to do anything wrong. He runs good routes, catches the ball well and is quicker than most give him credit for. Jester Weah still has the natural skills - speed and athleticism - but it doesn't sound like he has made considerable strides with his catching ability.
I haven't heard too much about Chris Wuestner and Jaquaun Davidson so far, but that's the extent of the list: Pitt has seven scholarship receivers this spring, and that's what they're working with.
Here's one wrinkle, though: the four-receiver sets - even some of the three-receiver sets - aren't always filled up with receivers, as it sounds like the tight ends are very much a part of those formations. In particular, I've heard from a few people that Scott Orndoff and Brian O'Neill have been lining up in the slot in some of the three and four-receiver sets.
Beyond that, it sounds like the ball is going to the tight ends, whether they are in the slot or lined up tight to the formation, which is where JP Holtz finds himself. I've said before that Orndoff can be a weapon for Pitt, particularly in the red zone; his size and running ability make him a very difficult assignment for a linebacker or a safety.
And O'Neill is a giant. He's every bit the 6'6" he is listed at, and he can move at that size. Even if he couldn't, he would be a matchup nightmare in the red zone. And given his success on the basketball court, throwing it up to him in the end zone isn't a bad play call.
I don't know if Holtz will top his 21 receptions from 2014 but I am fairly confident that the tight ends as a group will surpass the 25 catches they registered last season.
Of course, probably the biggest issue in Holtz's production last season - 21 receptions, 199 yards, 4 touchdowns - was Chad Voytik's development. That process had a number of positive impacts on the offense as a whole, but Holtz's involvement was certainly one of them: after producing a multi-catch stat line in just two of the first seven games, Holtz had four such efforts in the final six, catching 12 passes for 112 yards and - perhaps most importantly - three of his four touchdowns.
Holtz's increased production late in the season wasn't a result of the coaches changing the offense; rather, it was a matter of Voytik doing a better job finding him. And that was a result of Voytik getting more comfortable on the field, among other things (Chaney mentioned that he thought the coaches got a better idea of who Voytik was as the season went on).
But ultimately, Pitt's offensive success this season will come down to how well Voytik can operate in it. To that end, I'm hearing positive reviews. It's a process, to be sure, but a few people who have watched practice told me that they think this system will be a good fit for him. The pistol and shotgun should be good for him. Not that he can't work from under center - at one point last season I actually ran some numbers on his performance out of the shotgun, and there wasn't any real statistical improvement - but he worked a lot in the shotgun in high school, and it's a comfortable spot for him.
We'll see how it works out. Voytik's work ethic is second to none, and he's definitely smart enough to pick up an offense. A new quarterbacks coach and a new coordinator could be good for him, and we'll see how Chaney tailors things to Voytik's strengths. 2017 quarterback prospect liked his dual-threat ability, so the affinity for that ability in a recruit is probably an indicator of an affinity for that ability in a player.
That said, I think Chaney is looking forward to getting Nathan Peterman on campus to see what he can do, both in terms of pushing Voytik and outright competing for the job.
And the other element is the offensive line. I think most fans and media believe the offensive line can be really good, and I'm not sure the coaches differ much. They want to see it actually happen, but I get the impression that the coaches are pretty high on the line.
- After all of that talk about offense, there was some news on the defensive side of the ball Tuesday, as the coaches installed a third-down package for the first time.
From what I've gathered, Pitt's third-down package - at least, the package installed on Tuesday - will be a three-man front with a nickel-back joining the linebackers in the middle of the defense. Pat Amara was the nickel with the first-team defense on Tuesday, and he's a good fit for that position. He's big enough to be a safety but can cover like a corner, and he actually could probably take some snaps at cornerback if the coaches needed him to.
Behind Amara, it sounds like Dennis Briggs, who recently moved from running back to cornerback, is the backup nickel.
- Last year's staff often kept a four-man front for the nickel package and replaced a linebacker with an extra defensive back. Early in the season, that meant bringing a cornerback in, usually Avonte Maddox, who lined up outside while Reggie Mitchell - the starting corner - moved inside. After Terrish Webb got hurt and Mitchell moved back to safety, which led to Maddox starting, Amara became the nickel. That was a good move, since Amara is big enough to be a linebacker, and that gave some extra protection against the run (or, at least, it was supposed to).
There are merits to both approaches. The package used last year allowed Pitt to keep four defenders on the line of scrimmage, while this package keeps all three linebackers. Given the inability of Pitt's defensive line to create pressure last season, this package might be preferable since it will give the coaches more opportunities to create unique pressure package (if they are so inclined).
- As far as the defensive two-deep, I don't think things have changed much, if at all. Ejuan Price and Rori Blair are the first-team ends with Khaynin Mosley-Smith and Darryl Render between them. Nicholas Grigsby is the top "Star" linebacker (strong-side), Matt Galambos is in the middle and Bam Bradley is the "Money" (weak-side) linebacker. Avonte Maddox and Lafayette Pitts are the first-team corners.
There seems to be some rotation at safety, as Jevonte Pitts and Amara rotate at strong safety and Reggie Mitchell and Terrish Webb rotate at free safety. From what I've heard, the coaches usually start with Pitts and Mitchell and then rotate Amara and Webb in with the first team.
- And a note on special teams. After talking to special teams coordinator Andre Powell on Tuesday, I'm quite convinced that Pitt will not hesitate to use its best playmakers to generate positive plays in the return game. That may seem obvious, but you never know in these situations. While Powell admitted that it's not always easy to navigate the sometimes tricky world of assigning personnel on special teams (there's actually a lot that goes into it; more than I expected), he made it pretty clear that he'll have the full roster to choose from when it comes to getting the playmakers on the return units.
That means guys like Tyler Boyd and Jordan Whitehead. Look for them to make an impact on special teams. And while I think sometimes big plays on special teams rely on a bit of luck, Powell has coached return units a long time, and he inspires a bit of confidence, simply because he has a lot of confidence in what the return teams will be able to do this season.
Programming note: Powell will be my guest on this week's Panther-Lair Show, and he talked a lot about the running backs and the special teams. Really good stuff. He's been around a long time, and he seems to know his business. I think you'll enjoy hearing from him.
- On the recruiting front, Pittsburgh Central Catholic four-star cornerback Damar Hamlin was at practice on Tuesday. As some have noted, Tuesday was Hamlin's birthday, so he chose to spend at least some of that day with the Panthers.
That marked Hamlin's second visit to Pitt spring camp, following a handful of basketball games he attended in the last two months, and the latest count I heard is that he has been to Pitt at least six times since the new staff was hired. He's spending a lot of time around Narduzzi and the Pitt coaches, and that's not a bad thing. Pitt still has a lot of work to do with Hamlin, because he's getting pursued by some of the top programs in the country. But all of these visits show that he's willing to take a look at Pitt, and that gives the Panthers a chance.
I mentioned this on Twitter, and I'll repeat it here: by all indications, Hamlin very well might be Pitt's No. 1 overall target in the class of 2016 (taking into account position and realistic chances and all of that). How heavily is Pitt going after Hamlin? I heard that they even had the equipment manager send him a birthday card.
This post was edited on 3/24 10:54 PM by Chris Peak
At the same time, there's a new coordinator and a new offensive staff. That means some changes will be coming. So what will Pitt's offense look like this season? Here are some early signs.
By all indications, there's going to be plenty of pistol and shotgun formations in this offense. I've heard estimations ranging from 50% to 65% to 70% to 75% of the snaps operating with the quarterback not lining up under center. It sounds like it will probably be in the 60-70% range, which is obviously a change from the past.
Still, the pistol formation allows the running back to still line up behind the quarterback, and there's no mistaking that James Conner will be the team's workhorse. Running backs coach Andre Powell told me on Tuesday that his preference is to have three backs ready at all times: one lead back and two backups, although I think he would be okay with having four guys ready, if Qadree Ollison, Chris James and Rachid Ibrahim all prove worthy.
Powell added that he doesn't want to have a designated "third-down back." He thought Conner limited himself by not being up to the task of playing on third down last season, whether that meant blocking, pass-catching or both. So Powell wants all four backs to be proficient in all skills, although he did say he thinks there is some solid pass-catching ability in that group.
However the rotation works out, the main point is the same: Pitt will be a run-based offense. Establishing the run will be the primary goal, and the coaches will look to set up play-action with a strong running game.
Head coach Pat Narduzzi and offensive coordinator Jim Chaney have both referred to their preferences for a pro-style offense, and that's what Pitt will be going for.
At the same time, there will be some different looks, as it sounds like the coaches will try to have some spread formations, maybe even to the point of doing it "frequently." Observers of the first week of spring camp as well as Saturday's scrimmage commented on how often the offense lined up with three and four-receiver sets, not to the extent where that would be called a base package, necessarily, but still frequently enough that it seemed like something Chaney is inclined to use a lot.
So the question becomes, who will fills those three and four-receiver sets? Obviously Tyler Boyd has his position - even if he will likely shift through the various spots - but the Panthers need more than just Boyd. Dontez Ford seems to be playing fairly well through the first week, by most accounts, and with his style of play - he's more physical and seems like an almost-typical "possession receiver" - he could be a nice complement to Boyd.
That leaves a few more positions to fill, though, and that's where the bigger unknowns come in. I have heard some positive things about Elijah Zeise; he made a handful of catches in the scrimmage on Saturday and seems to have caught the coaches' attention. Looking at him during Tuesday's open media window, I still think he looks the part: he has good size (probably 6'2" or so), seems a bit bulkier but hasn't really lost the athleticism that made him a good basketball player at North Allegheny.
I also thought it was interesting that Zeise was the first name - even ahead of Ford - mentioned by receivers coach Kevin Sherman when talking about players the coaches are considering for the position opposite Boyd. Check out the full Sherman interview; lots of good stuff in there (although Sherman may have to fight off defensive coordinator Josh Conklin, who would probably like to see Zeise in the safeties meeting room; if there's a better opportunity to get on the field, Zeise might have to consider it).
From what I've heard, Zach Challingsworth continues to do what I thought of him a year ago: he doesn't really seem to do anything wrong. He runs good routes, catches the ball well and is quicker than most give him credit for. Jester Weah still has the natural skills - speed and athleticism - but it doesn't sound like he has made considerable strides with his catching ability.
I haven't heard too much about Chris Wuestner and Jaquaun Davidson so far, but that's the extent of the list: Pitt has seven scholarship receivers this spring, and that's what they're working with.
Here's one wrinkle, though: the four-receiver sets - even some of the three-receiver sets - aren't always filled up with receivers, as it sounds like the tight ends are very much a part of those formations. In particular, I've heard from a few people that Scott Orndoff and Brian O'Neill have been lining up in the slot in some of the three and four-receiver sets.
Beyond that, it sounds like the ball is going to the tight ends, whether they are in the slot or lined up tight to the formation, which is where JP Holtz finds himself. I've said before that Orndoff can be a weapon for Pitt, particularly in the red zone; his size and running ability make him a very difficult assignment for a linebacker or a safety.
And O'Neill is a giant. He's every bit the 6'6" he is listed at, and he can move at that size. Even if he couldn't, he would be a matchup nightmare in the red zone. And given his success on the basketball court, throwing it up to him in the end zone isn't a bad play call.
I don't know if Holtz will top his 21 receptions from 2014 but I am fairly confident that the tight ends as a group will surpass the 25 catches they registered last season.
Of course, probably the biggest issue in Holtz's production last season - 21 receptions, 199 yards, 4 touchdowns - was Chad Voytik's development. That process had a number of positive impacts on the offense as a whole, but Holtz's involvement was certainly one of them: after producing a multi-catch stat line in just two of the first seven games, Holtz had four such efforts in the final six, catching 12 passes for 112 yards and - perhaps most importantly - three of his four touchdowns.
Holtz's increased production late in the season wasn't a result of the coaches changing the offense; rather, it was a matter of Voytik doing a better job finding him. And that was a result of Voytik getting more comfortable on the field, among other things (Chaney mentioned that he thought the coaches got a better idea of who Voytik was as the season went on).
But ultimately, Pitt's offensive success this season will come down to how well Voytik can operate in it. To that end, I'm hearing positive reviews. It's a process, to be sure, but a few people who have watched practice told me that they think this system will be a good fit for him. The pistol and shotgun should be good for him. Not that he can't work from under center - at one point last season I actually ran some numbers on his performance out of the shotgun, and there wasn't any real statistical improvement - but he worked a lot in the shotgun in high school, and it's a comfortable spot for him.
We'll see how it works out. Voytik's work ethic is second to none, and he's definitely smart enough to pick up an offense. A new quarterbacks coach and a new coordinator could be good for him, and we'll see how Chaney tailors things to Voytik's strengths. 2017 quarterback prospect liked his dual-threat ability, so the affinity for that ability in a recruit is probably an indicator of an affinity for that ability in a player.
That said, I think Chaney is looking forward to getting Nathan Peterman on campus to see what he can do, both in terms of pushing Voytik and outright competing for the job.
And the other element is the offensive line. I think most fans and media believe the offensive line can be really good, and I'm not sure the coaches differ much. They want to see it actually happen, but I get the impression that the coaches are pretty high on the line.
- After all of that talk about offense, there was some news on the defensive side of the ball Tuesday, as the coaches installed a third-down package for the first time.
From what I've gathered, Pitt's third-down package - at least, the package installed on Tuesday - will be a three-man front with a nickel-back joining the linebackers in the middle of the defense. Pat Amara was the nickel with the first-team defense on Tuesday, and he's a good fit for that position. He's big enough to be a safety but can cover like a corner, and he actually could probably take some snaps at cornerback if the coaches needed him to.
Behind Amara, it sounds like Dennis Briggs, who recently moved from running back to cornerback, is the backup nickel.
- Last year's staff often kept a four-man front for the nickel package and replaced a linebacker with an extra defensive back. Early in the season, that meant bringing a cornerback in, usually Avonte Maddox, who lined up outside while Reggie Mitchell - the starting corner - moved inside. After Terrish Webb got hurt and Mitchell moved back to safety, which led to Maddox starting, Amara became the nickel. That was a good move, since Amara is big enough to be a linebacker, and that gave some extra protection against the run (or, at least, it was supposed to).
There are merits to both approaches. The package used last year allowed Pitt to keep four defenders on the line of scrimmage, while this package keeps all three linebackers. Given the inability of Pitt's defensive line to create pressure last season, this package might be preferable since it will give the coaches more opportunities to create unique pressure package (if they are so inclined).
- As far as the defensive two-deep, I don't think things have changed much, if at all. Ejuan Price and Rori Blair are the first-team ends with Khaynin Mosley-Smith and Darryl Render between them. Nicholas Grigsby is the top "Star" linebacker (strong-side), Matt Galambos is in the middle and Bam Bradley is the "Money" (weak-side) linebacker. Avonte Maddox and Lafayette Pitts are the first-team corners.
There seems to be some rotation at safety, as Jevonte Pitts and Amara rotate at strong safety and Reggie Mitchell and Terrish Webb rotate at free safety. From what I've heard, the coaches usually start with Pitts and Mitchell and then rotate Amara and Webb in with the first team.
- And a note on special teams. After talking to special teams coordinator Andre Powell on Tuesday, I'm quite convinced that Pitt will not hesitate to use its best playmakers to generate positive plays in the return game. That may seem obvious, but you never know in these situations. While Powell admitted that it's not always easy to navigate the sometimes tricky world of assigning personnel on special teams (there's actually a lot that goes into it; more than I expected), he made it pretty clear that he'll have the full roster to choose from when it comes to getting the playmakers on the return units.
That means guys like Tyler Boyd and Jordan Whitehead. Look for them to make an impact on special teams. And while I think sometimes big plays on special teams rely on a bit of luck, Powell has coached return units a long time, and he inspires a bit of confidence, simply because he has a lot of confidence in what the return teams will be able to do this season.
Programming note: Powell will be my guest on this week's Panther-Lair Show, and he talked a lot about the running backs and the special teams. Really good stuff. He's been around a long time, and he seems to know his business. I think you'll enjoy hearing from him.
- On the recruiting front, Pittsburgh Central Catholic four-star cornerback Damar Hamlin was at practice on Tuesday. As some have noted, Tuesday was Hamlin's birthday, so he chose to spend at least some of that day with the Panthers.
That marked Hamlin's second visit to Pitt spring camp, following a handful of basketball games he attended in the last two months, and the latest count I heard is that he has been to Pitt at least six times since the new staff was hired. He's spending a lot of time around Narduzzi and the Pitt coaches, and that's not a bad thing. Pitt still has a lot of work to do with Hamlin, because he's getting pursued by some of the top programs in the country. But all of these visits show that he's willing to take a look at Pitt, and that gives the Panthers a chance.
I mentioned this on Twitter, and I'll repeat it here: by all indications, Hamlin very well might be Pitt's No. 1 overall target in the class of 2016 (taking into account position and realistic chances and all of that). How heavily is Pitt going after Hamlin? I heard that they even had the equipment manager send him a birthday card.
This post was edited on 3/24 10:54 PM by Chris Peak
