Yeah, unless he worked specifically with a shot doctor while he was sitting out not sure how he’s a viable option to play a lot of minutes
Starting lineup projections
- Thread starter Pitt2006
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He's going to need to make substantial improvements. And I find all the guys on our team easy to root for. I guess a case could be made against Dior but I dont want to go there in this thread.
Without even getting into the new players.... What Jorge did last year offensively was far better than what Jeffress has ever provided at either end of the floor and that includes rebounding efficiency rates on both ends of the floor. And Jorge was also thrown into the fire as a backup center where he had no business even playing.
Jorge finished the year with an ORTG power rating of 109 for the year and a ORTG power rating of 113 in ACC conference play. That is very strong for a bench reserve that is a freshmen big on offense.
We have not seen Jeffress in what will be 2 years and he came into Pitt at 17 years old. I think its very possible that he will have made substantial improvement over those 2 years which both helps himself and the team. I still don't think its going to be enough to beat out Jorge let alone a guy like Carrington at the 3 or Kante potentially at the 4, both of which have a lot more talent to work with than Jorge or Jeffress. And Ill say this bluntly with confidence. Kante will be a way better defender at the 4 than Jeffress right now without taking offense into the equation. Kante is for real on defense and on the glass.
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Let's be honest here for just a moment. And let's take all statistics out of the equation for just a moment. This is Guillermo in the NCAA Tournament as a true freshmen.
Now I ask myself, how can anyone watch this and not be excited about the future potential of this player. Im not directing this at you. Im just saying, there is a lot to like here on offense and on defense against NCAA Tournament teams as a true freshmen and why I think this player is going to start at center and why he has a really bright future here. He makes plays on both ends of the floor. Yes, he is really thin and still fairly raw on defense. But there is a lot here to like and I think he is being underrated here by some (and Im not saying that meaning you)
It’s maybe not even his shot that I think needs the most work. To me, he looked very uncomfortable with the ball in his hands.
So unless he has turned himself into a 40% spot up shooter, he’s going to have to be able to penetrate some or be an absolute stopper defender to get minutes.
And the problem with that is that the best way to improve as a shooter is to take a lot of shots, but he has spent a significant portion of the time that he wasn't playing for Pitt not being able to play, or even shoot, at all.
People don't get better by sitting and watching, they get better by doing. And he's missed out on a lot of the doing part of it.
That’s fair. He played really well against ISU and Xavier. I think it’s fair to expect several similar games this year, and go beyond this in his Jr and Sr. year. We can only see how much. I don’t see a superstar like some might, but a consistent 12-8 guy seems like where he could be. Like said, hopefully he’ll continue to exceed my expectations.
The numbers from his sophomore year just aren't there in any of the metrics. He had a DR rebound rate of 13.7 which isn't close to where we really want to be at PF as we wont have a Blair on this current team. I would estimate Kante to be between 20-25 on the defensive end on the glass as a freshmen. His assist rate was a 6. That was the 3rd worst on the entire roster. He shot 35% on interior shots which is really bad. His only bright spot was a 41% midrange game. I also agree with the nervous uncomfortable part, which has been a problem for a number of our players in the Capel era. He did not want the ball in his hands, and it almost seemed like he couldn't wait to get it out of his hands.
You could say he was an above average defender, but I wouldn't go any further than that. He is now competing with much taller players with a lot more upside at PF with more talent. And one of them has the biggest wingspan in Pitt history.
Where he could be used, is in a press defense or even a trap defense. He had success with this in the past with the press at Pitt, helping to force turnovers when we were behind.
The wildcard is his youth. He came here really young. But we are also talking about a 2 year break from basketball. There is clearly going to be offensive rust even with improvement that he has made on the offensive end.
Here are the last 4 games of last season when Guillermo took over as the full time starter at center. These games were against Duke ( the acc champion), Xavier (sweet 16 team), Mississippi State and Iowa State (NCAA Teams). We won 2 of these games.
31 minutes per game
9.25 points per game
7.25 rebounds per game
2 blocks per game
2 assist per game
.5 turnover per game
43% FG percentage
ORTG offensive power ratings against these teams 138, 44, 162, 119
If he can do this as a true freshmen against these 4 teams in a row, he is ready to eat up the cupcakes and put up pretty substantial numbers against the weaklings in the non conference schedule which would inflate his stats.
I don't see superstar potential, that's pushing it. Something like Aaron Gray or Chris Taft down the road? Yea, I think that is possible. But we have legit depth at center at the moment which is going to hold his numbers back.
Aaron Gray was an All American and the focal point of the offense.
He was barely on scouting reports this year. This was the exact same thing I told you about Femi when he had his little 5 game run. You have to let people scout him and see how he fights back when people know what he does before making these insane declarations like he’ll put up Aaron gray numbers
Aaron Gray was first team All Big East. That’s certainly a level I would not expect for GDiaz. Except that I wouldn’t have expected it for Aaron either after his freshman year.
I was going to say something similar. Let’s see how he does when people are planning to stop him.
I said it was possible that he could reach that level. I did not guarantee he was going to reach it.
And there is a big difference with what you write in regards to being on scouting reports. A player like Xavier Johnson and Trey Mcgowens who were both 1 trick pony, who could do nothing besides dribble drive to the basket and score or score in transition as a freshmen and loaded up the statistics against one of the worst non conference schedules ever put together at Pitt, is a lot different than a 7 footer that can score in a number of ways, including from 3. When both those freshmen guards got into acc conference play, their efficiency numbers took a nosedive.
And just as important, the rebound efficiency rates on both ends of the floor are only going in one direction here, and that is up. You can scout him all you want. A 7 footer that is gaining strength year over year over year is going to increase his rebounding ability. You don't luck your way into rebounds. And we have all witnessed that with Terrell Brown, Fede, and AKC for example, none of which could rebound the ball or even give hope they could rebound the ball.
I'm not sure its legit to include the Duke numbers in your already small sample size. That game was a glorified scrimmage.
That said, please don't take my comments as an attempt to knock GDiaz down too far. I think he can have a nice future as a Panther, certainly a solid ACC starter. I just don't think it's wise to predict him as an all league player just yet.
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I’m now going to go:
Hinson
Austin
Carrington
GDG
Kante
Bench:
Fede
Leggett
Lowe
Johnson
JDG healthy
Jeffress
Barnes
You got size, 3 pt shooting, rebounding, athleticism. This is also assuming the Johnson we are seeing is what we will get, but also because maybe Carrington and Kante will be better early on than imagined.
Hinson
Austin
Carrington
GDG
Kante
Bench:
Fede
Leggett
Lowe
Johnson
JDG healthy
Jeffress
Barnes
You got size, 3 pt shooting, rebounding, athleticism. This is also assuming the Johnson we are seeing is what we will get, but also because maybe Carrington and Kante will be better early on than imagined.
What did Kante show to you in the 8 mins he played in the overseas trip that puts him ahead of Fede or Diaz Graham who is a 5.
1. Johnson
2. Austin
3. Carrington
4. Hinson
5. Fede
Bench - leggett, Lowe, Whichever is hotter or Diaz Graham or Kante and Jeffress I guess.
Didn’t you say Kante would be starting over everyone when we landed him?
I have to think if Fede makes even a 10% improvement he is a lock. I mean he was one of the biggest surprises regarding a Pitt BB player as any during my life.
Wow, posters are really engaged with the hoops team ! great to see. This team is going to be very interesting. Everyone is really confident on Dior, I am not at this point, but on VERY limited info. He did not stand out in Spain, the freshman guards were better. I am very excited about the 3 true freshman guards, but on very limited info ! Papa Kante sounds really good. I love the twins, how they battle. many have pointed out our weakness, a true seasoned point guard. This sounds like a very talented team ! potentially, at talented as we have had, though very young. I hope they all stay healthy ! Hinson is going to be a beat this year. the NBA experience should have him amped.
Dior hasn't shown much overseas.
Based on that my guess is--- Leggett, Carrington, Austin, Hinson, Fede.
Second unit is --Johnson, Jeffress, J.D-G, Kante, G. D-g
How do you know that about Dior?
Has Pitt released the boxscores? That would give you a pretty good early idea of what the rotation could look like. I believe Pitt put out boxes for their Bahamas trip but not the Ireland one.
Getting the feeling Carrington is showing better than expectations and Dior less.
If Carrington is better that eliminates a lot of worry.
You might the only person in the world who thinks Austin is 2. A small school 4 playing the 2 in the ACC is.... something.
I did say it was a guess. I am not certain of it.
Based on the very, very limited info, Leggett and Carrington have done more, at least offensively, than has Dior in these two exhibitions. That is why I made it a guess that he won't be a starter next season.
As you say, without boxscores we have no way of knowing the details--especially how many minutes of PT Dior is being given. Perhaps the coaches are purposely limiting his minutes so they can see what the newcomers (Leggett, Carrington and Lowe) bring to the table. That is certainly a possible scenario. But that would also be a guess.
On the other hand, since Dior didn't play (only practiced) last season we really have no idea, other than his H.S. and AAU recruiting hype, how good he will be at the college level. Maybe, even without his legal problem, he would have not been a starter last season and played behind Nelly Cummings. We have no way of knowing. So, it is not unreasonable to guess that Leggett and Carrington might be better than Dior. We won't know what is reality until after the season starts.
Look at this more like a depth chart. Depending on the match-ups and who else on the floor.
PG-Johnson/Lowe/Leggett/Carrington
SG- Leggett/Carrington/Jorge
SF- Austin/Jorge/Jeffress/Barnes
PF- Hinson/Austin/Jorge/Jeffress
C- Federico/Guillermo/Kante
The guards other than Ish are going to get pushed around on defense. The front court and Ish will need to carry this team a bit early on.
PG-Johnson/Lowe/Leggett/Carrington
SG- Leggett/Carrington/Jorge
SF- Austin/Jorge/Jeffress/Barnes
PF- Hinson/Austin/Jorge/Jeffress
C- Federico/Guillermo/Kante
The guards other than Ish are going to get pushed around on defense. The front court and Ish will need to carry this team a bit early on.
It wasn't long ago that Gerald Drumgoole came into this program and started his first game in the preseason against Slippery Rock where he put up 13 points and 5 boards and then started again in the opener against Florida State.
After the first game of the real season, Drumgoole never started again. He also found himself buried on the bench soon after that FSU game and played limited minutes.
The same can be said for former 5 star Dante Taylor who put up near 30 points in the opener against Slippery Rock in the preseason. When the real games began, Taylor went from looking like a potential NBA 1 and done in the preseason to bench reserve his freshmen season.
My point is, I would take what is happening in these scrimmage games in August with a lot of caution and not make full season conclusions based off scrimmage games.
When the real games begin and the lights go on, some players crumble off of pressure and others thrive.
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The 2 and the 3 position do the exact same thing. You have him playing the 3. They do the same thing. What’s the difference? He’ll be out there as a starter
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I said he was the most talented big man we would have. And it was a huge get. I do love that even the positive things I post somehow get turned into a negative though.
I was merely commenting that there’s absolutely no way you could tell from Spain he’s gonna start.
Vader … sorry to be “that guy” because I know you know your stuff as well, but …
I’ve written “dribbles” after every game for about 25 years and I recall most of them pretty well. So because of that, I “need” to correct you by saying Dante had just 27 against Slippery Rock in his exhibition debut! Pitt hoops history is my thing!! Lol!
Nonetheless, please don’t get the impression that disagree with the premise of your point. In fact, I agree completely.
Looking at your post again … you said “near 30” so my comment was uncalled for!! Haha!
What the percent of the time you are expecting Austin to be bringing the ball up court?
Lol. If it's over zero- that's funny.
He brought it up himself when he dunked on that guy in Tenerife in the one clip on social. But that was a pure fast break.
1) you seem like a very unfulfilled individual.
2) also, overly fascinated by me
3) what an odd question in the age of positionless basketball. Other than our centers, everyone brought the ball up the court off rebounds last year. If he can’t dribble the ball to half court off a rebound, a task even most 4th graders can accomplish, what business does he have being on the court?
4) I do not expect him to bring it up in a half court situation at all, as evidenced by me not saying he would play PG
Shocking that an ACC 2/3/4 whatever he is (who really cares) can do that in the age of positonless basketball! I am truly shocked!
After watching that game in Spain (which admittedly did not mean much), I would say the following:
Carrington
Pick any of Leggett, Lowe or Johnson, but probably Leggett
Austin
Hinson
Fede
Bench: the other two non-starting guards, GDC and the rest I am not sure (it will be at least one of JDG, Kante and Jeffress).
I said this in another thread, but it is possible that Carrington is their second best player. Any starting lineup without him to me just does not make sense presently (once again, mostly based off of a meaningless game in Spain).
Carrington
Pick any of Leggett, Lowe or Johnson, but probably Leggett
Austin
Hinson
Fede
Bench: the other two non-starting guards, GDC and the rest I am not sure (it will be at least one of JDG, Kante and Jeffress).
I said this in another thread, but it is possible that Carrington is their second best player. Any starting lineup without him to me just does not make sense presently (once again, mostly based off of a meaningless game in Spain).
Yeah, it seems Carrington is forcing his way into things.
This might be one of those years were you have a starting lineup, but past that you have to see the extent to which guys play, and in what spot/role.
