Compare that list to WCC, MWC, MVC, A-10... its just a non-sensical argument. Gonzaga, SD St, Wichita State, VCU all have remained really good programs for awhile now.
Sterling Gibbs...
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Compare that list to WCC, MWC, MVC, A-10... its just a non-sensical argument. Gonzaga, SD St, Wichita State, VCU all have remained really good programs for awhile now.
The Big 10 seems to be making a serious effort to drive everyone except P5 schools out of D-1 by making it too expensive to compete.
Ending freshmen eligibility, with a caveat that kids can have 5 years to play 4, will increase player expenses because coaches are not going to accept a smaller roster. I'd expect increasing basketball scholarships to at least 15 total and maybe more.
Sports Illustrated published an article in August 2014 which predicted that D-1 woud be reduced to solely P5 schools within less than 25 years. It could be faster. They mockingly said the NCAAT would be renamed the Slive-Delany March Madness Cup, because the P5 schools are intentionally squeezing out everyone else.
A school like UConn will really be in a vise , because they have the expenses of D-1 football, with basically, mid-majer TV contract revenues. For many athletic programs, the choices will be 1) Get into a P5 conference or 2) drop to D2/3.
The Big East schools are probably better off because they don't have to pay for 85 football scholarships. Or share their TV bounty with as many conference members.
To be honest, probably 2/3 of the schools in D-1 basketball are there for publicity and for their share of the billions CBS pays for the NCAAT. If EVERYBODY has to lay out $10,000 extra for every basketball player in stipends and NIL trusts, there is a strong chance that a large number of the 351 or however many schools currently playing D-1 drop to D2 or D3 quickly.
Bottom line is, the days when small private mid-majors can make an impact in big time basketball on a regular basis is probably disappearing.
The corollary to that is that the poorer P5 schools will become the next "distressed properties" or poor relatives. We're never going to be able to keep up with the 'Bama's and tOSU's.
To all the wishful thinkers out there, hoping for some Goldilocks scenario where Pitt rises to glory on the misfortunes of programs like UConn... you better hope Harve is wrong.
If this comes true then universities like Piit will have to choose a path. Pay up and try to win or go back to a true student athlete mode ,just like before the advent of big money and television took over. Those 25 schools can cheat all they want and the rest can play by rules where there is no great financial benifit to cheating. I'm sure there will always be cheaters ,but it would certainly cut it down. Don't think the coaching profession would favor this though.
I am not seeing anyone on this site suggesting that UConn will become UMass. UConn has every opportunity to remain better than all the teams you mentioned. But... realistically, what probability do those teams have of winning a title, and how often? Are UConn fans going to be content with Gonzaga-like results? And let's be honest, none of those teams recruit the same way or the same targets that UConn does.
The biggest obstacle I see for UConn is already proven after last season. UConn has had some seasons where they improved a ton over the season and won really improbable championships, despite mediocre regular season results. In a league like AAC, that is pretty hard. They could've won that final (that they hosted!) last year, but they didn't, and their season ended. The barrier to entry for the auto-bid has almost surely lowered for them, but the barrier for an at-large went way up. If you can't win big OOC games and finish ~13-5, you aren't going to make it. That's a tough situation.
Contrast that with Pitt. We could've won maybe 2 of those games down the stretch and made it in at 21-13 (9-9).
This is an important visit for PItt. I am not optimistic as I feel the signing of the other Sterling hurt chances to land Nwamu, so I think that could impact the staff's ability to land Gibbs (as if recruiting wasn't already somewhat of a struggle). If Wilson is not ready to contribute next year for any reason, it would be nice to have an upgrade in place on the roster. Granted Cam Johnson is coming back, but Gibbs gives additional depth to the backcourt. I hope they can close this out and bring him on board.
Pitt wasn't getting in winning only 2 of those last 4. There might've been a point near the end of the year that they were on the bubble, but even at that, they needed at least 3 of those final four (they won 1), plus probably a win in the ACC Tourney. It's really tough to overcome losses to teams like Hawaii & Virginia Tech when you're on the bubble.
But, just for arguments sake, say it only took 2 more wins for Pitt.... had UConn won two more games (maybe the home game vs Temple, an OT loss, and the home game vs Memphis, a 1 point loss), they're right there on the bubble with Pitt at 22-12 (12-6).
As for your statement that you're not seeing anyone on this site suggest UConn will become UMass... try reading much of this thread... most are suggesting UConn's days as a factor in basketball are over. That's ridiculous.
Sterling Smith is a nice offset for the loss of Durand. Durand was always way more hype than substance.
The way it seems, pending Gibbs decision...
- Sterling Smith replaces Durand Johnson as a RS SR
- Rafael Maia replaces Joseph Uchebo as a RS SR
- Sterling Gibbs takes the slot of the possibly ineligible FR Damon Wilson
- Sterling Smith replaces Durand Johnson as a RS SR
- Rafael Maia replaces Joseph Uchebo as a RS SR
- Sterling Gibbs takes the slot of the possibly ineligible FR Damon Wilson
I think Maia takes Haughton's spot, Gibbs (potentially) takes Uchebo's. There hasn't been much on the Damon Wilson thing, who knows if there is any truth to the rumblings on here.
The analogy was in regards to 1st year coaches who won National Championships. Neither Fisher or Smith won another title. Both schools took a step back. One via NCAA sanctions & the other not to maintain the success that his predecessor started.
Ollie could become a great coach & win multiple titles or he could follow down the same path as Fisher & Smith. The UCONN brand doesn't guarantee continued success for Ollie.
You are correct that Kentucky has done well AFTER Tubby, but what did Kentucky achieve during the remaining years of Tubby's coaching tenure at Kentucky?
I can't remember the other titles that Tubby won or the other final fours that he went to with Kentucky while he was their coach.
So Gibbs is visiting Ohio State the day after he visits us, and he will then choose from Pitt, UCONN and OSU. All three teams have true need for his services I have no idea what our realistic odds are for him.
Can he run the point? If so, the presence of Sterling Smith, who is a true 2 guard, will be less of an impediment to Gibbs coming on board. If he can get his minutes at both backcourt spots there will be plenty for him, as JR is really the only true PG on our roster, and I would say JR plays too many minutes for a guy who isn't a threat to score.
I think if Gibbs opts for Pitt, he plays just over/under 15 at PG and just over/under 20 at SG. Or something like that. Either way, I think Dixon would use him at both spots. Robinson's minutes likely decline to just over/under 25. Which, for him, would be ideal.
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