Just stating the obvious but, its hard to know how to put college teams in some sort or ranking order in our minds given the Covid protocols effect because--
(1) Available rosters change from game to game due to quarantines.
(2) Available players for practice is constantly changing for most teams.
(3) Some teams have had longish breaks between getting games played which further impacts (1) and (2) and produces "rust."
(4) Lack of fans has reduced home court advantages significantly.*
* Note: Comparing past season's Sagarin HCA numbers to now-- the HCA is down about 1.25 points. Home vs away impact is now just under 4 points vs it being about 6.5 in past seasons. This is finally giving us an idea of the average effect of the home crowd on teams' performances.
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Given all of the above, it is more difficult than in normal times to assess whether any particular game result is an upset or more the result of the interplay of all these factors creating the perfect storm for a particular game.
Thinking about the above as regards Pitt so far this season--
Although it is uncertain what overall effect these factors have had on our Panthers, I tend to believe, all things considered, we are a better team that last year and more competitive in the ACC---probably capable of beating pretty much anyone on any given day. If things weren't Covid effected I tend to believe this team would be solidly in the middle of the ACC pack if fully healthy (including Champagnie).
Hopefully by late season when many have been vaccinated and Covid cases are down significantly we will see how the Panther's look with a full and healthy roster against the ACC with the other teams having full and healthy rosters as well.
FWIW, Prior to yesterday's games Sagarin's computer saw the ACC as shown below. Pitt had dropped significantly following the Louisville loss--so It will be interesting to see how much it changes for Pitt (and for Cuse) based on yesterday's games.
After games of Jan 5th
11 Virginia = 88.78
16 Louisville = 86.70
19 Duke = 86.32
20 Florida State = 86.16
31 Clemson = 84.90
33 Syracuse = 84.78
35 North Carolina = 84.75
45 NC State = 83.79
52 Virginia Tech = 82.62
63 Georgia Tech = 80.79
74 Miami-Florida = 79.55
82 Pittsburgh = 79.01
92 Notre Dame = 77.71
115 Boston College = 75.65
120 Wake Forest = 75.25
(1) Available rosters change from game to game due to quarantines.
(2) Available players for practice is constantly changing for most teams.
(3) Some teams have had longish breaks between getting games played which further impacts (1) and (2) and produces "rust."
(4) Lack of fans has reduced home court advantages significantly.*
* Note: Comparing past season's Sagarin HCA numbers to now-- the HCA is down about 1.25 points. Home vs away impact is now just under 4 points vs it being about 6.5 in past seasons. This is finally giving us an idea of the average effect of the home crowd on teams' performances.
*****************************************************************
Given all of the above, it is more difficult than in normal times to assess whether any particular game result is an upset or more the result of the interplay of all these factors creating the perfect storm for a particular game.
Thinking about the above as regards Pitt so far this season--
Although it is uncertain what overall effect these factors have had on our Panthers, I tend to believe, all things considered, we are a better team that last year and more competitive in the ACC---probably capable of beating pretty much anyone on any given day. If things weren't Covid effected I tend to believe this team would be solidly in the middle of the ACC pack if fully healthy (including Champagnie).
Hopefully by late season when many have been vaccinated and Covid cases are down significantly we will see how the Panther's look with a full and healthy roster against the ACC with the other teams having full and healthy rosters as well.
FWIW, Prior to yesterday's games Sagarin's computer saw the ACC as shown below. Pitt had dropped significantly following the Louisville loss--so It will be interesting to see how much it changes for Pitt (and for Cuse) based on yesterday's games.
After games of Jan 5th
11 Virginia = 88.78
16 Louisville = 86.70
19 Duke = 86.32
20 Florida State = 86.16
31 Clemson = 84.90
33 Syracuse = 84.78
35 North Carolina = 84.75
45 NC State = 83.79
52 Virginia Tech = 82.62
63 Georgia Tech = 80.79
74 Miami-Florida = 79.55
82 Pittsburgh = 79.01
92 Notre Dame = 77.71
115 Boston College = 75.65
120 Wake Forest = 75.25
