Teams better than Pitt (regardless of record or rank)

[pittpitt]

Pitt is #25/#28 in the polls, and the computers have us a little worse than that since our D allows us to successfully sit on small leads, resulting in final scores that are closer than the actual disparity between Pitt and 4 of the 5 teams we've beaten (GT being the 1 exception, although the momentum was all ours in the 2nd half). If I want to be honest about how good we are, I have to identify the teams that are more likely to beat us than not, regardless of what their current record or ranking is. Here are the teams I think we'd legitimately be underdogs against, which I'm identifying in order to guesstimate our "true" ranking, which is hopefully about where we end up in the final polls.

MUCH BETTER THAN PITT - TOUGH TO STAY WITHIN 7 (in approximate order)
1. Baylor
2. Utah
3. TCU
4. LSU
5. Clemson
6. Alabama

PROBABLY 1-7 PTS BETTER THAN PITT ON MOST NIGHTS
7. Stanford --keep getting better
8. Michigan --they're better than MSU & we all know it
9. Florida --could have beat LSU, but barely beat ECU, Kentucky, Tennessee
10. Notre Dame --has talent, but let lesser teams hang around & we tend to play them well
11. Florida State --amazing QB/RB combo
12. Ohio State --play down too much, miss their OC who is now coaching Houston
13. Texas A&M --Pitt is *this* close to being able to match how they stacked up with ArizSt, Ark, MissSt, Bama

COIN FLIP (so I'm saying our "true" ranking is right in this grouping)
14) Iowa --we've proved we're their equal, and we're better now than then
15) Oklahoma --considering conditions, their W over Akron is no better than ours, lost to Texas, barely beat Tenn, crushed KanSt
16) Oklahoma State --barely beat CentMich, Tex, KanSt, WVU
17) Houston --really tough team that scores lots of points with a really nasty OL
18) Mississippi St --some solid outcomes, but their O can be held in check

PITT IS PROBABLY 1-7 PTS BETTER THAN THEM MOST NIGHTS (drops 2 because of Pitt)
20) Duke --great D and solid O, lost to NW back when NW looked decent (but not now)
21) Cal --very good QB who has been shakeable at times, barely beat 3 eh teams but scared Utah
22) Wisconsin --we did a little bit better vs. Iowa, lucky to beat Nebraska
23) North Carolina --we'll find out how tough they really are in less than 2 weeks
24) Auburn --Pitt would do better against LSU (L by 24), MissSt (L by 8), and Kentucky (W by 3)
25) Michigan State --are lucky to have half the wins they do, we're much more consistent
26) Ole Miss --beat Bama, but lost to Memphis and crushed by Florida, I'd be uneasy facing them
27) Georgia Tech --barely lost to 5, 10, 20, 23, and Pitt (14-18)
28) Texas Tech --high scoring games on O & D but we still have more to learn about them

LOWER BUT CONSIDERED: Toledo, UCLA, Georgia, Kansas St, Memphis, Northwestern, Temple (please), BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Boise St (crushed Virginia but crushed by Utah St), USC (talented but in disarray)

 

[Saboteur]

Pitt is #25/#28 in the polls, and the computers have us a little worse than that since our D allows us to successfully sit on small leads, resulting in final scores that are closer than the actual disparity between Pitt and 4 of the 5 teams we've beaten (GT being the 1 exception, although the momentum was all ours in the 2nd half). If I want to be honest about how good we are, I have to identify the teams that are more likely to beat us than not, regardless of what their current record or ranking is. Here are the teams I think we'd legitimately be underdogs against, which I'm identifying in order to guesstimate our "true" ranking, which is hopefully about where we end up in the final polls.

MUCH BETTER THAN PITT - TOUGH TO STAY WITHIN 7 (in approximate order)
1. Baylor
2. Utah
3. TCU
4. LSU
5. Clemson
6. Alabama

PROBABLY 1-7 PTS BETTER THAN PITT ON MOST NIGHTS
7. Stanford --keep getting better
8. Michigan --they're better than MSU & we all know it
9. Florida --could have beat LSU, but barely beat ECU, Kentucky, Tennessee
10. Notre Dame --has talent, but let lesser teams hang around & we tend to play them well
11. Florida State --amazing QB/RB combo
12. Ohio State --play down too much, miss their OC who is now coaching Houston
13. Texas A&M --Pitt is *this* close to being able to match how they stacked up with ArizSt, Ark, MissSt, Bama

COIN FLIP (so I'm saying our "true" ranking is right in this grouping)
14) Iowa --we've proved we're their equal, and we're better now than then
15) Oklahoma --considering conditions, their W over Akron is no better than ours, lost to Texas, barely beat Tenn, crushed KanSt
16) Oklahoma State --barely beat CentMich, Tex, KanSt, WVU
17) Houston --really tough team that scores lots of points with a really nasty OL
18) Mississippi St --some solid outcomes, but their O can be held in check

PITT IS PROBABLY 1-7 PTS BETTER THAN THEM MOST NIGHTS (drops 2 because of Pitt)
20) Duke --great D and solid O, lost to NW back when NW looked decent (but not now)
21) Cal --very good QB who has been shakeable at times, barely beat 3 eh teams but scared Utah
22) Wisconsin --we did a little bit better vs. Iowa, lucky to beat Nebraska
23) North Carolina --we'll find out how tough they really are in less than 2 weeks
24) Auburn --Pitt would do better against LSU (L by 24), MissSt (L by 8), and Kentucky (W by 3)
25) Michigan State --are lucky to have half the wins they do, we're much more consistent
26) Ole Miss --beat Bama, but lost to Memphis and crushed by Florida, I'd be uneasy facing them
27) Georgia Tech --barely lost to 5, 10, 20, 23, and Pitt (14-18)
28) Texas Tech --high scoring games on O & D but we still have more to learn about them

LOWER BUT CONSIDERED: Toledo, UCLA, Georgia, Kansas St, Memphis, Northwestern, Temple (please), BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Boise St (crushed Virginia but crushed by Utah St), USC (talented but in disarray)

I disagree with a couple of your observations. U of M is not much better than MSU. U of M had everyhting going their way on Saturday and they should have won by 2 points. having been in the Big House rooting on the visiting team, i can tell you that is a legit home field advantage.
Me thinks you have U of M rated far too high.
I don't see Stanford as being 7.....based on what? beating the train wreck that is USC. USC teams have always won with talent (a super abundance), but they have never been known for playing with heart.
ND is an enigma to me. They give up plenty of points and laugh if you will, but I don't think they have an identity.
Time will tell i suppose.

 

[NC Panther]

Pitt is #25/#28 in the polls, and the computers have us a little worse than that since our D allows us to successfully sit on small leads, resulting in final scores that are closer than the actual disparity between Pitt and 4 of the 5 teams we've beaten (GT being the 1 exception, although the momentum was all ours in the 2nd half). If I want to be honest about how good we are, I have to identify the teams that are more likely to beat us than not, regardless of what their current record or ranking is. Here are the teams I think we'd legitimately be underdogs against, which I'm identifying in order to guesstimate our "true" ranking, which is hopefully about where we end up in the final polls.

MUCH BETTER THAN PITT - TOUGH TO STAY WITHIN 7 (in approximate order)
1. Baylor
2. Utah
3. TCU
4. LSU
5. Clemson
6. Alabama

PROBABLY 1-7 PTS BETTER THAN PITT ON MOST NIGHTS
7. Stanford --keep getting better
8. Michigan --they're better than MSU & we all know it
9. Florida --could have beat LSU, but barely beat ECU, Kentucky, Tennessee
10. Notre Dame --has talent, but let lesser teams hang around & we tend to play them well
11. Florida State --amazing QB/RB combo
12. Ohio State --play down too much, miss their OC who is now coaching Houston
13. Texas A&M --Pitt is *this* close to being able to match how they stacked up with ArizSt, Ark, MissSt, Bama

COIN FLIP (so I'm saying our "true" ranking is right in this grouping)
14) Iowa --we've proved we're their equal, and we're better now than then
15) Oklahoma --considering conditions, their W over Akron is no better than ours, lost to Texas, barely beat Tenn, crushed KanSt
16) Oklahoma State --barely beat CentMich, Tex, KanSt, WVU
17) Houston --really tough team that scores lots of points with a really nasty OL
18) Mississippi St --some solid outcomes, but their O can be held in check

PITT IS PROBABLY 1-7 PTS BETTER THAN THEM MOST NIGHTS (drops 2 because of Pitt)
20) Duke --great D and solid O, lost to NW back when NW looked decent (but not now)
21) Cal --very good QB who has been shakeable at times, barely beat 3 eh teams but scared Utah
22) Wisconsin --we did a little bit better vs. Iowa, lucky to beat Nebraska
23) North Carolina --we'll find out how tough they really are in less than 2 weeks
24) Auburn --Pitt would do better against LSU (L by 24), MissSt (L by 8), and Kentucky (W by 3)
25) Michigan State --are lucky to have half the wins they do, we're much more consistent
26) Ole Miss --beat Bama, but lost to Memphis and crushed by Florida, I'd be uneasy facing them
27) Georgia Tech --barely lost to 5, 10, 20, 23, and Pitt (14-18)
28) Texas Tech --high scoring games on O & D but we still have more to learn about them

LOWER BUT CONSIDERED: Toledo, UCLA, Georgia, Kansas St, Memphis, Northwestern, Temple (please), BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Boise St (crushed Virginia but crushed by Utah St), USC (talented but in disarray)

Geez - I disagree w/ a lot of those:

FSU
OSU
T A&M
Florida
Ole Miss - we're better than this team? My God no.
OK - coin flip - seriously?

ALL of the above would beat Pitt by 7+ easily.

We're better than Michigan St and TT? Come on.

 

[thebadby2]

Wow. I don't even know where I'd start with this. Amazing the kinds of things we see on this board when Pitt finally has some modest success. We've run out to a 5-1 record, losing a close one to the only ranked team we've played, (and I might add, a team that hasn't played much of a schedule itself--the rest of our opponents aren't in the top 50), and suddenly we're better than undefeated teams that have spent the whole year in everyone's top 10. This guy thinks we're a close game against the #1 team in the country.

Pure absurdity.

How about we just worry about getting a win at Cuse next week in the Carrier Dome?

 

[Consultant Panther]

Pitt is #25/#28 in the polls, and the computers have us a little worse than that since our D allows us to successfully sit on small leads, resulting in final scores that are closer than the actual disparity between Pitt and 4 of the 5 teams we've beaten (GT being the 1 exception, although the momentum was all ours in the 2nd half). If I want to be honest about how good we are, I have to identify the teams that are more likely to beat us than not, regardless of what their current record or ranking is. Here are the teams I think we'd legitimately be underdogs against, which I'm identifying in order to guesstimate our "true" ranking, which is hopefully about where we end up in the final polls.

MUCH BETTER THAN PITT - TOUGH TO STAY WITHIN 7 (in approximate order)
1. Baylor
2. Utah
3. TCU
4. LSU
5. Clemson
6. Alabama

PROBABLY 1-7 PTS BETTER THAN PITT ON MOST NIGHTS
7. Stanford --keep getting better
8. Michigan --they're better than MSU & we all know it
9. Florida --could have beat LSU, but barely beat ECU, Kentucky, Tennessee
10. Notre Dame --has talent, but let lesser teams hang around & we tend to play them well
11. Florida State --amazing QB/RB combo
12. Ohio State --play down too much, miss their OC who is now coaching Houston
13. Texas A&M --Pitt is *this* close to being able to match how they stacked up with ArizSt, Ark, MissSt, Bama

COIN FLIP (so I'm saying our "true" ranking is right in this grouping)
14) Iowa --we've proved we're their equal, and we're better now than then
15) Oklahoma --considering conditions, their W over Akron is no better than ours, lost to Texas, barely beat Tenn, crushed KanSt
16) Oklahoma State --barely beat CentMich, Tex, KanSt, WVU
17) Houston --really tough team that scores lots of points with a really nasty OL
18) Mississippi St --some solid outcomes, but their O can be held in check

PITT IS PROBABLY 1-7 PTS BETTER THAN THEM MOST NIGHTS (drops 2 because of Pitt)
20) Duke --great D and solid O, lost to NW back when NW looked decent (but not now)
21) Cal --very good QB who has been shakeable at times, barely beat 3 eh teams but scared Utah
22) Wisconsin --we did a little bit better vs. Iowa, lucky to beat Nebraska
23) North Carolina --we'll find out how tough they really are in less than 2 weeks
24) Auburn --Pitt would do better against LSU (L by 24), MissSt (L by 8), and Kentucky (W by 3)
25) Michigan State --are lucky to have half the wins they do, we're much more consistent
26) Ole Miss --beat Bama, but lost to Memphis and crushed by Florida, I'd be uneasy facing them
27) Georgia Tech --barely lost to 5, 10, 20, 23, and Pitt (14-18)
28) Texas Tech --high scoring games on O & D but we still have more to learn about them

LOWER BUT CONSIDERED: Toledo, UCLA, Georgia, Kansas St, Memphis, Northwestern, Temple (please), BYU, Arizona, Arizona State, Boise St (crushed Virginia but crushed by Utah St), USC (talented but in disarray)

LOL...This seems like something that crazy Rutgers fan, RutgersAl would post!

 

[KennyTheKangaroo]

Each of our conference wins have came down to the final minutes of the game, and each time the other team had a shot to win the game. Each of those three wins were against teams that are not very good.

I'm not ready to crown pitt as a good team.

With that said, we are winning games and that is what matters.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

Geez - I disagree w/ a lot of those:

FSU
OSU
T A&M
Florida
Ole Miss - we're better than this team? My God no.
OK - coin flip - seriously?

ALL of the above would beat Pitt by 7+ easily.

We're better than Michigan St and TT? Come on.

You are buying into the SEC media hype. Ole Miss is not that good, yeah they beat Alabama but similar to Pitt with Va-Tech, they seem to have bama's number the last few years. Same with Texas A&M. And Florida really hasn't beat anyone of note. Similar to PSU, OOC full of cupcakes. It would not be a 7+ win for any SEC school. Oklahoma is very difficult to play at Norman, so that would probably be a blowout if away but a night game at Heinz would be interesting but probably not a win.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

Wow. I don't even know where I'd start with this. Amazing the kinds of things we see on this board when Pitt finally has some modest success. We've run out to a 5-1 record, losing a close one to the only ranked team we've played, (and I might add, a team that hasn't played much of a schedule itself--the rest of our opponents aren't in the top 50), and suddenly we're better than undefeated teams that have spent the whole year in everyone's top 10. This guy thinks we're a close game against the #1 team in the country.

Pure absurdity.

How about we just worry about getting a win at Cuse next week in the Carrier Dome?

typical yinzer mentality and not surprising based on some of your previous posts.

 

[thebadby2]

typical yinzer mentality and not surprising based on some of your previous posts.

You guys are idiots. Too dumb to even argue with.

They'd love you out in Vegas.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

You guys are idiots. Too dumb to even argue with.

They'd love you out in Vegas.

thanks for proving my point.

 

[Las Panteras]

I agree with Badby.

I am as thrilled as anyone about Pitt's start.....but November is where you make your bones....and Pitt....in every year they were rolling into November......Since Paul Hackett.......ended the season with a thud.

I will try and dig up the stats......but this program has faltered in November.

If PN can change that metric....Im on board all the way

 

[Mikefln]

On any given Saturday, I believe Pitt could beat any team this year, as I don't feel there is that one or two teams far better than everyone else like years past. that is not to say that if we played the top teams 10 times that they wouldn't win 8 of the 10. I will say this of the top 10 I would really like Pitt's chance with Baylor. They have yet to play a team with even an average defense. I refuse to believe their hype.

 

[JSSTartan]

I just hope we are better than the teams on our remaining schedule. First, TCB at Syracuse this Saturday.

 

[pittpitt]

I will try and dig up the stats......but this program has faltered in November.

If PN can change that metric....Im on board all the way

Just to clarify, your point is basically "yeah yeah, but Same Old Pitt is coming," yet if Narduzzi wins through November (in which case we'd be 11-1) you'll then be on board. Now that's what pessimism in a 5-1 season, on the heels of 6-7, looks like.

 

[thebadby2]

On any given Saturday, I believe Pitt could beat any team this year, as I don't feel there is that one or two teams far better than everyone else like years past. that is not to say that if we played the top teams 10 times that they wouldn't win 8 of the 10. I will say this of the top 10 I would really like Pitt's chance with Baylor. They have yet to play a team with even an average defense. I refuse to believe their hype.

Our D, which is the strength of our team, gave up 500 yards and 28 points to 2-5 GT. We needed a 56 yard FG in the 4th quarter to beat them.

And you think we're ready for Baylor? Do you guys watch any college football outside of Pitt?

The hits keep coming in this thread. Can't we just enjoy winning for a change, and still live in the real world? I mean, this stuff is outrageous.

 

[rpost3]

Pitt is about the 25th best team right now without Conner. They're ranked about right.
About 10th if Conner is healthy.

 

[Mikefln]

Our D, which is the strength of our team, gave up 500 yards and 28 points to 2-5 GT. We needed a 56 yard FG in the 4th quarter to beat them.

And you think we're ready for Baylor? Do you guys watch any college football outside of Pitt?

The hits keep coming in this thread. Can't we just enjoy winning for a change, and still live in the real world? I mean, this stuff is outrageous.

Every year a Big 12 team runs up a bunch of points against terrible defense, then they get humbled in bowl season. Yes I watch college football outside of Pitt and I've seen this show from the most overrated conference before.

 

[pittpitt]

Our D, which is the strength of our team, gave up 500 yards and 28 points to 2-5 GT.

And you think we're ready for Baylor? Do you guys watch any college football outside of Pitt?
.

Context: It was posted before the GT game that they were the highest scoring opponent against 5 of their 6 opponents up to that point.

No one thinks we're ready for Baylor (or any of the best few teams in college), even with the old "on any given Saturday" statement thrown around.

 

[Mikefln]

Context: It was posted before the GT game that they were the highest scoring opponent against 5 of their 6 opponents up to that point.

No one thinks we're ready for Baylor (or any of the best few teams in college), even with the old "on any given Saturday" statement thrown around.

Let me clarify myself. I said any given Saturday Pitt could beat anyone. My next statement was The top 10 would probably beat Pitt 8 times out of 10. IMO Pitt and Baylor would spit 5/5. Not that any of this matters it is not going to happen.

 

[Las Panteras]

Just to clarify, your point is basically "yeah yeah, but Same Old Pitt is coming," yet if Narduzzi wins through November (in which case we'd be 11-1) you'll then be on board. Now that's what pessimism in a 5-1 season, on the heels of 6-7, looks like.

you cant really be serious.......

How you can squeeze "you will be on board if Naduzzi goes 11-1" from my post would be hilarious if it wasnt so absurd.

Factual data is on my side....and I would advise Pitt fans to keep in mind, thats all.......

November has not been kind to Pitt in the past. I am hopeful Narduzzi can change this.

 

[TD_6082]

You are buying into the SEC media hype. Ole Miss is not that good, yeah they beat Alabama but similar to Pitt with Va-Tech, they seem to have bama's number the last few years. Same with Texas A&M. And Florida really hasn't beat anyone of note. Similar to PSU, OOC full of cupcakes. It would not be a 7+ win for any SEC school. Oklahoma is very difficult to play at Norman, so that would probably be a blowout if away but a night game at Heinz would be interesting but probably not a win.

SEC media hype? You have to be kidding.

 

[TD_6082]

Let me clarify myself. I said any given Saturday Pitt could beat anyone. My next statement was The top 10 would probably beat Pitt 8 times out of 10. IMO Pitt and Baylor would spit 5/5. Not that any of this matters it is not going to happen.

No. Just no.

 

[jaygeekray]

I agree with Badby.

I am as thrilled as anyone about Pitt's start.....but November is where you make your bones....and Pitt....in every year they were rolling into November......Since Paul Hackett.......ended the season with a thud.

I will try and dig up the stats......but this program has faltered in November.

If PN can change that metric....Im on board all the way

I think you may be surprised at the truth. Has Pitt had some devastating losses in November? Hell yes! But were those games that they would have won in Sept or Oct? Probably not. But overall, I would guess that over the last 25 years, Pitt's winning percentage in Nov is comparable to the rest of the season.

 

[jaygeekray]

I stand corrected - I was kinda wrong!
When I checked the last five years, the difference in the pre-Nov 1st versus post-Nov 1st regular season winning percentage was only .538 vs .476 (or 1 more victory in 16 games or 1 additional Nov win every 4 years). But when I went back 13 yrs(available on ESPN.com) the difference doubled to .623 vs .500 (or 1 more victory in 8 games or 1 more Nov win every 2 years - woo hoo!).

However, if you take out the MAC, Sunbelt, FCS and other weaker teams that only appear on the schedule before Nov 1st, the difference in winning percentages may become insignificant.

 

[9nationalchampionships]

Steelers

 

[TempleBAPittMPA]

LOL...This seems like something that crazy Rutgers fan, RutgersAl would post!

Especially the "Temple (please".

Keep dissing. It fuels the fire.

 

[Las Panteras]

I stand corrected - I was kinda wrong!
When I checked the last five years, the difference in the pre-Nov 1st versus post-Nov 1st regular season winning percentage was only .538 vs .476 (or 1 more victory in 16 games or 1 additional Nov win every 4 years). But when I went back 13 yrs(available on ESPN.com) the difference doubled to .623 vs .500 (or 1 more victory in 8 games or 1 more Nov win every 2 years - woo hoo!).

However, if you take out the MAC, Sunbelt, FCS and other weaker teams that only appear on the schedule before Nov 1st, the difference in winning percentages may become insignificant.

there was a stat I think in the Trib or PG highlighting 6 or 7 seasons since Paul Hackett.......where Pitt was undefeated or had only 1 loss at the halfway point. It is that data set that should be considered regarding November......as that data set is where we find Pitt this season.

I wont spend the time researching the results of each season.....suffice to say the results of the years in question were not good in Nov. I think PN has what is needed to keep this team going forward and not falling over.,but it still remains to be seen.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

SEC media hype? You have to be kidding.

You think Ole Miss or Texas A&M are world beaters? Coming from someone who thinks Franklin is the second coming of Vince Lombardi, this isn't surprising.

 

[owlsper]

 

[Pittx9]

You think Ole Miss or Texas A&M are world beaters? Coming from someone who thinks Franklin is the second coming of Vince Lombardi, this isn't surprising.

Agreed. In most years, the SEC has backed it up and been the best. Many don't think they will even be in the playoffs this year though. That could say that it's such a tough conference that nobody can run away with it. It could also say they just flat out don't have a top 4 team this season. I think this season just happens to be the exception. It's somewhat of a down year for the SEC. Still a solid conference, but they don't deserve some of the rankings their teams are getting. The fact Missouri was ever ranked this season just screams that the pollsters put an SEC team in the rankings because they thought they just had to be good, they're in the SEC.

 

[TD_6082]

You think Ole Miss or Texas A&M are world beaters? Coming from someone who thinks Franklin is the second coming of Vince Lombardi, this isn't surprising.

They aren't that bad. Ole Miss is a helluva lot better now than they were when beat our brakes off in Birmingham. A&M had no trouble laying waste to Toddy Graham's Sun Devils.

As a general rule of thumb, its easily the best conference. This year may be an exception. You can make a case for the Big 12.