We lose to UNC (not by 90) - split the rest of the regular season and get bounced in the 1st round of the ACC tournament.
In or Out?
In or Out?
The 1st "what If" scenario...
- Thread starter NC Panther
- Start date
I'll admit, at the beginning and early in conference play, I said we needed to go 11-7 but a couple things happened. The road ND win became very, very good and the wins over Syr & FSU keep looking better (FSU slipping a little though). That coupled with the American and A10 not having good years, makes me think we can get in at 9-9.
I bring up the American and A10 because those are leagues you can count on to combine for 7-8 bids. The way things stand, they may only get 2-4, partly because of SMU's probation. Then you add in Louisville not going, there's a lot of opportunity for Pitt unless we totally eff up.
10-8: In, no matter what, even if we lose on Wednesday in DC.
As for 9-9:
- if we go 2-1 vs Syr, Lou, Duke, we are in no mater what, even if we lose the 8/9 game
- if we go 1-2 vs Syr, Lou, Duke, we are probably in, but we'd have to win the 8/9 game just to be sure
- if we go 0-3 vs Syr, Lou, Duke, we have to win the 8/9 game to get in.
I'm even going to throw this far-fetched scenario out there. If Pitt goes 8-10 (18-11) but we finish by say, beating Wake and Louisville, then beating say, Syracuse and UVa in DC, we are in at 20-12.
To give you an idea of how bad the bubble is, Cincinnati is one of the Last 4 in. Here's their resume:
RPI: 63
Best wins: GW (44)
Tulsa (48)
@ UConn (46)
@ VCU (53)
Houston 90
This is Pitt's most realistic path:
- beat Wake
- 1-2 vs Syr, Lou, Duke
- 1-1 vs VT, GT (I don't think we sweep those on the road)
- win the 8/9 game
This isn't asking a lot.
I bring up the American and A10 because those are leagues you can count on to combine for 7-8 bids. The way things stand, they may only get 2-4, partly because of SMU's probation. Then you add in Louisville not going, there's a lot of opportunity for Pitt unless we totally eff up.
10-8: In, no matter what, even if we lose on Wednesday in DC.
As for 9-9:
- if we go 2-1 vs Syr, Lou, Duke, we are in no mater what, even if we lose the 8/9 game
- if we go 1-2 vs Syr, Lou, Duke, we are probably in, but we'd have to win the 8/9 game just to be sure
- if we go 0-3 vs Syr, Lou, Duke, we have to win the 8/9 game to get in.
I'm even going to throw this far-fetched scenario out there. If Pitt goes 8-10 (18-11) but we finish by say, beating Wake and Louisville, then beating say, Syracuse and UVa in DC, we are in at 20-12.
To give you an idea of how bad the bubble is, Cincinnati is one of the Last 4 in. Here's their resume:
RPI: 63
Best wins: GW (44)
Tulsa (48)
@ UConn (46)
@ VCU (53)
Houston 90
This is Pitt's most realistic path:
- beat Wake
- 1-2 vs Syr, Lou, Duke
- 1-1 vs VT, GT (I don't think we sweep those on the road)
- win the 8/9 game
This isn't asking a lot.
Would be very close. I'd say probably IN so long as we get one win over Duke or Ville (or possibly Cuse). If we go 9-9 with our wins being Wake and the Techs on the road, I dunno.
Look at the mock selection today, look at some of the teams on the cut line right now. It's crazy to think but if we go 8-10, and win 2 games in the ACCT, we'd be right there...
There's not very good odds that Pitt gets up to the #7 seed spot, so we're likely looking at the 8/9 opener and facing UNC if we manage a win. All things considered, a dogfight win over Cuse then getting bounced by the #1 team in the conference will not hurt perception and helps the SOS a bit.
Gotta win WF and @VT. Feel somewhat good about @Cuse and @GT. Duke or UL would be a big help.
Clemson collapsing would help our cause too.
Gotta win WF and @VT. Feel somewhat good about @Cuse and @GT. Duke or UL would be a big help.
Clemson collapsing would help our cause too.
I just saw Lunardi's latest update. He has Cuse and FSU in the last 8 bids and Clemson 8th out. A matchup between any of Pitt, Cuse, and FSU in the ACCT might be the play-in for the winner.
I dunno, I think all of Pitt/Cuse/FSU will get in. I think given the dearth of bids from the A-10 and American, plus SMU/Ville not qualifying, and a severe lack of mid major bubble teams, that we may be in better shape than we think. Get to 9 ACC wins, have a top 45 RPI, we are probably safe, possibly not even in Dayton.
Have you looked at Clemson's remaining 6 games, it is highly unlikely that they collapse. I wish Pitt had the 6 games left that they do.
Clemson's last 6 games are: H-and-H with GT, H-and-H with BC, NCSU on the road and UVA at home.
If we beat Wake and Syr, we will be the 7 seed.
The top 4 are:
UNC
UVa
Miami
ND/Duke
Then
ND/Duke
Clemson
7, 8, 9 will be Pitt/Syr/FSU. If we beat Syr, we win all tiebreakers ans it would be unlikely those teams would pass us.
I dont think we will win in the Dome so I'm going to have to figure how early I have to leave for the dreaded Wednesday nooner.
20-10 and sitting at 20-11 on selection sunday?
depends on who those 3 wins are against...
beating Wake, and the Techs... we are out
beating Cuse/Ville/Duke, Wake, and then one of the Techs.... probably in, might be first four.
Pitt is not getting in, sorry. I see them only beating Wake and maybe VT again. That's it and it's not enough.
That's probably not enough, you're right. But win one other game, I think we are in.
So, from what I could find, Jamie is 4-4 against Buzz all-time. But sure, Buzz really hands it to Jamie, like the 90-71 loss a couple of weeks ago.
It's clearly not a guarantee. Pitt is worse than many here admit, and VT is much better than most realize. Having said that, if Pitt really is a tournament team, they win that game (could say the same thing about 2015).
Pomeroy has Pitt by 1.
I think 10-8 is a guarantee and 9-9 with a ACC tourney win may be us in too. People need to remember that many teams already have close to double digit losses and Louisville and SMU can't dance and would have been slam dunks.
If we win 4 games between now and the end of the year, then we are absolutely in the Big Dance. If we win 3, then we are probably in. If we win 2, then they need to be against teams in the RPI Top 50 come season end and we are on the bubble but probably in.
