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The 3-2-1 Column: 3 observations, 2 questions & 1 prediction on the run game, TE recruiting and more

What are we thinking about this week? The running game, tight end recruiting, transition classes and more. It’s all in the latest 3-2-1 Column.

https://pittsburgh.rivals.com/news/the-3-2-1-column-the-run-game-te-recruiting-and-more
Curious as to why in your prediction that the running game will be good for more than 200 YPG this season-up from less than 150 last year—you didn’t mention the O-line at all, or the fact that we lost 4 of our top 6 O linemen from last year including an all-American tackle. Basically you project this year’s team as having top 20-25 rushing attack statistically. A strong O line is by far the most critical favtor in the success of the run game, so I’m not sure where that projection comes from. Pickett’s mobility will help a bit but not anywhere near enough to generate the kind of numbers you’re talking about-unless the O line is a whole lot better than it was last year. That seems like a long shot.
 
Curious as to why in your prediction that the running game will be good for more than 200 YPG this season-up from less than 150 last year—you didn’t mention the O-line at all, or the fact that we lost 4 of our top 6 O linemen from last year including an all-American tackle. Basically you project this year’s team as having top 20-25 rushing attack statistically. A strong O line is by far the most critical favtor in the success of the run game, so I’m not sure where that projection comes from. Pickett’s mobility will help a bit but not anywhere near enough to generate the kind of numbers you’re talking about-unless the O line is a whole lot better than it was last year. That seems like a long shot.

 
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Curious as to why in your prediction that the running game will be good for more than 200 YPG this season-up from less than 150 last year—you didn’t mention the O-line at all, or the fact that we lost 4 of our top 6 O linemen from last year including an all-American tackle. Basically you project this year’s team as having top 20-25 rushing attack statistically. A strong O line is by far the most critical favtor in the success of the run game, so I’m not sure where that projection comes from. Pickett’s mobility will help a bit but not anywhere near enough to generate the kind of numbers you’re talking about-unless the O line is a whole lot better than it was last year. That seems like a long shot.

Maybe half of the TE's will move over to play line. I mean, someone has to if they don't eventually get a commit at OL.
 
It's easy to load up against the run when you can't throw a forward pass. IMO, DiNucci moving on will greatly help the running game.

Curious as to why in your prediction that the running game will be good for more than 200 YPG this season-up from less than 150 last year—you didn’t mention the O-line at all, or the fact that we lost 4 of our top 6 O linemen from last year including an all-American tackle. Basically you project this year’s team as having top 20-25 rushing attack statistically. A strong O line is by far the most critical favtor in the success of the run game, so I’m not sure where that projection comes from. Pickett’s mobility will help a bit but not anywhere near enough to generate the kind of numbers you’re talking about-unless the O line is a whole lot better than it was last year. That seems like a long shot.
 
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It's easy to load up against the run when you can't throw a forward pass. IMO, DiNucci moving on will greatly help the running game.
That was an issue last year for sure, but wealso had a better O line last year. We are replacing 4 of the top 6 including an AA. I don’t think that bodes well for running the football this year.
 
I'm not sure that the oline will be worse, the same or better. There's too much change to have any clue at this point but the line last year wasn't very good. Because of that I'm willing to guess it will be about the same.

That was an issue last year for sure, but wealso had a better O line last year. We are replacing 4 of the top 6 including an AA. I don’t think that bodes well for running the football this year.
 
One additional thought regarding the the rushing total. The first half of the season had Pitt playing catch up due to the defense being so bad. I think it's safe to assume that the defense will mostly keep Pitt in every game leading to more carries per game.

That was an issue last year for sure, but wealso had a better O line last year. We are replacing 4 of the top 6 including an AA. I don’t think that bodes well for running the football this year.
 
I'm not sure that the oline will be worse, the same or better. There's too much change to have any clue at this point but the line last year wasn't very good. Because of that I'm willing to guess it will be about the same.

That's usually not what you want to hear about the OL.
 
Our running game wasn't that bad last year. People can say that teams were able to crowd the line due to a lack of passing attack. And that may be true. But we were 19th in the S&P+ rushing attack, due almost entirely to the fact that we were so successful on a per play basis.
Our problems were:

1. When we were stopped, we were STOPPED. 98 in stuff rate. 105 in power success rate.

2. When we were successful, we were at the minimum of success. 82 in IsoPPP, which measures exactly how successful were you on plays that were successful. Meaning if a successful play is measured by at least 4 yards, how far beyond 4 yards did you typically go?

Based on those stats, it looks like we had an OL that wasn't particularly good, and so we asked our RBs to carry too much of the rushing load. If we are 98 in stuff rate, it's difficult to believe the OL is doing that well on the non-stuff plays.

But also a set of RBs that weren't particularly explosive if teams were crowding the line. Usually the problem with crowding around the line is getting past the first level, meaning you would expect to see a lower success rate. Once you get past the first level of defenders, there is a lot of daylight. If we were 19th in rushing success rate, that has to be a lot of second level runs. And yet, only 82 in rushing explosiveness. That's got to fall on the RBs some.
 
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