Thursday Morning Nervous Bubbles - March 3rd

[UPitt '89]

This Pitt team can be maddening at times. We (and they) see the potential when they are engaged and focused. But their problem is that they are not always engaged and focused. And the biggest culprits are usually their 22- and 23-year old forwards...guys who should have more maturity. Jamel Artis mailed it in yesterday, and that's unforgivable. At other times this season, Mike Young mailed it in. If those two, who are the key to our success, can both stay focused and engaged, Pitt will be a tough out. If they can make the dance....

Last Night's Losers

Pitt

The Panthers got a bad loss to a team they shouldn't lose to, and saw their chances plummet from 75.2% to 54.1%. The GT game is nearly a must-win.

Oregon State

The Beavers got blown out at USC last night, albeit with one of their best players - Tres Trinkle - sidelined with an injury. Their chances were "shaved" from 62.0% to 53.2%.

Alabama

The Crimson Tide's NCAA chances are done. Their home loss to Arkansas sealed the deal. Chances fell from 8.9% to 2.3%. Bye bye, Tide.

Last Night's Winners

Butler

The Bulldogs got a very big win against Seton Hall, and that boosted them from 66.4% to 78.0%.

USC

The Trojans finally stopped the bleeding, blowing out out a less-than-100% Oregon State team at home. Andy Enfield's squad saw their chances rise from 55.8% to 66.1%

Providence

The Friars got an essential win at home against Creighton, and saw their chances go up to 63.6% from 46.4%.

VCU

The Rams took over first place in the A10 with their win last night. Chances remained at a healthy 82%.

St. Bonaventure

And finally, we have the Bonnies. Their big win over St. Joseph's likely punched their ticket. Chances up to 83.6% from 65.1%.

Thursday's Bubble Action

Memphis
at Temple (RPI: 54 Chances: 67.1%)
7:00, ESPNU
- A loss here by the Owls would definitely be beneficial to Pitt. Go Tigers!

Arkansas-Little Rock (RPI: 35 Chances: 65.4%)
at Appalachian State
7:30, no TV
- The Trojans are a likely bid stealer if they don't get an auto-bid. Anything that hurts their at-large profile helps other bubble teams like Pitt. Go Mountaineers!

UConn (RPI: 55 Chances: 76.5%)
at SMU
9:00, ESPN2
- The Huskies were thought to be solidly in as recently as 7-10 days ago. But their resume is actually pretty thin. A win on the road against SMU would make them a lock. A loss would make Sunday's game against UCF a must-win. Go Mustangs!

Cincinnati (RPI: 51 Chances: 87.6%)
at Houston (RPI: 76 Chances: 17.6%)
9:00, CBSSN
- The Cougars need to make a run right now in order to get solidly on the bubble, the Bearcats don't want to have to sweat next Sunday. Cincinnati might drop behind Pitt with a loss. Go Cougars!

 

[Chairman Moe]

Great job as usual, '89

I find it interesting that both UConn and UC - whose RPI number is higher than ours - are both nearly locks for the NCAAT (at 77 and 88 percent), while Pitt is at just north of 50%. Is that due to the conference perhaps? That is, the Huskies and Bearcats are higher up in their conference than we are in ours?

 

[UPitt '89]

Great job as usual, '89

I find it interesting that both UConn and UC - whose RPI number is higher than ours - are both nearly locks for the NCAAT (at 77 and 88 percent), while Pitt is at just north of 50%. Is that due to the conference perhaps? That is, the Huskies and Bearcats are higher up in their conference than we are in ours?

It is also due to the expected results in the remaining games. Pitt has a 50% chance of winning their remaining regular season game.... UConn has a 90% chance (home game against UCF after their road game at SMU) of getting at least one more win. Similar thing with Cincy.

The percentages take into account the chances of wins in their remaining games and who those games are against.

 

[Chairman Moe]

Thanks; makes sense

 

[Fredact]

I was going to avoid this site after last night's loss, but I can't stay away from your Bubble Updates! Love the effort, thanks!

 

[Piranha]

South Carolina loses to UGA. If they lose to Arkansas and get bounced in the 1st Round of SEC, then they would be squarely on the bubble.

 

[Piranha]

Appalachian St beat Ark Little Rock. ALR now has 2 losses against teams with an RPI below 250. Get them off the list.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Very, very good night for pitt. Results disastrous for the AAC.

South Carolina RPI dropped 16 spots tonight.

Pitt back up to 45 in rpi.

I think pitt is In even with 2 losses, but it would be close.

 

[whirlybird optio]

South Carolina loses to UGA. If they lose to Arkansas and get bounced in the 1st Round of SEC, then they would be squarely on the bubble.

I think they are squarely on the bubble right now. 15 spots below Pitt in the rpi. They lose to Arkansas, they might need a run in the SECT.

SEC a 3 bid league? Florida, South Carolina, Bama? All 3 below Pitt right now, maybe even vandy too

 

[Harve74]

I think they are squarely on the bubble right now. 15 spots below Pitt in the rpi. They lose to Arkansas, they might need a run in the SECT.

SEC a 3 bid league? Florida, South Carolina, Bama? All 3 below Pitt right now, maybe even vandy too

The Bubble is VERY soft right now. Several teams COULD play themselves in. I'm just worried we're playing ourselves out.

 

[whirlybird optio]

The Bubble is VERY soft right now. Several teams COULD play themselves in. I'm just worried we're playing ourselves out.

At this point, Pitt's recent games is more like playing ourselves in. Winners of 3 of 5, two of them quality wins, neither loss that bad a loss at all. That's better, maybe even significantly better, than what other teams on the bubble are doing right now. Especially those from the SEC and AAC.

 

[Harve74]

At this point, Pitt's recent games is more like playing ourselves in. Winners of 3 of 5, two of them quality wins, neither loss that bad a loss at all. That's better, maybe even significantly better, than what other teams on the bubble are doing right now. Especially those from the SEC and AAC.

IMHO, if we lose to GT sbd tge frst ACCT sne, we're in the NIT. Hope I'm wrong, but the Duke win only goes so far.

 

[CJ_Pittfan]

At this point, Pitt's recent games is more like playing ourselves in. Winners of 3 of 5, two of them quality wins, neither loss that bad a loss at all. That's better, maybe even significantly better, than what other teams on the bubble are doing right now. Especially those from the SEC and AAC.

The power of positive thinking! Hopefully we will get a couple more wins to improve that seed line and we won't have to worry about the bubble at all.

 

[whirlybird optio]

IMHO, if we lose to GT sbd tge frst ACCT sne, we're in the NIT. Hope I'm wrong, but the Duke win only goes so far.

They have to get to 68 teams. If we are a 7/8 seed now, two losses won't drop us 4-5 seed lines, behind a bunch of other teams that will also be losing.

But, if we are a 10/11 seed, right now, you're absolutely right.