To those convinced that Pitt won't win less than 8 games

[DC_Area_Panther]

IMHO, given the 12 game regular season (with usually at least 2 "cupcakes"), and having grown up in the era of 10 game seasons without so many cupcakes on the schedule---I judge seasons more by the loss total rather than the win total.

That means i look at it this way--

11-1 is really 9-1
10-2 is really 8-2
9-3 is really 7-3
8-4 is really 6-4
7-5 is really 5-5
6-6 is really 4-6
ETC
ETC
ETC . . .

By that reckoning anything less than 9-3 and you are entering the realm of mediocrity and you have arrived there at a 7-5 regular season. Below mediocre begins with a 6-6 record.

 

[Pittguy1980]

IMHO, given the 12 game regular season (with usually at least 2 "cupcakes"), and having grown up in the era of 10 game seasons without so many cupcakes on the schedule---I judge seasons more by the loss total rather than the win total.

That means i look at it this way--

11-1 is really 9-1
10-2 is really 8-2
9-3 is really 7-3
8-4 is really 6-4
7-5 is really 5-5
6-6 is really 4-6
ETC
ETC
ETC . . .

By that reckoning anything less than 9-3 and you are entering the realm of mediocrity and you have arrived there at a 7-5 regular season. Below mediocre begins with a 6-6 record.

That really isn't true though. Stassen does a good job breaking it down, and over the last 5 years, only 27 p5 teams averaged 8 total wins a year, and you can probably knock off about 5 of those teams if you look at reg season wins only because of bowl wins.

8 reg season wins a year puts you in the top third of p5 teams.

 

[Pittguy1980]

http://football.stassen.com

You can sort by last 5 years performance and see what I mean.

 

[OriginalEther]

Ok, but the acc coastal isn't the total joke it once was. Duke is vastly improved as is unc. Gt is no push over. Miami and VT can beat Pitt and are decent. Virginia stinks.

Honestly though, I look at every coastal acc game as a toss up except Virginia. I look at Psu as a slight Pitt favorite, but not a sure win. I think ok st will win, and Clemson will for sure. Cuse, again, Pitt favorite, but not a cupcake.

So, I see maybe three sure wins, two almost sure fire losses, and a lot of toss ups. I mean, if we think Pitt will go 5-2 in those toss up games, that is great, but I have watched enough Pitt football to not expect that.

My view is to get to 8-4, Pitt will need to go 5-4 against the team's not named Villanova, Marshall, and Syracuse. That's not a whole lot to ask.

Your point on the Coastal is quite valid, and no doubt there will be seasons when Pitt doesn't catch the breaks and finishes with a poor record. It's my opinion that Pitt and Narduzzi still need to avoid this.

 

[Pittguy1980]

My view is to get to 8-4, Pitt will need to go 5-4 against the team's not named Villanova, Marshall, and Syracuse. That's not a whole lot to ask.

Your point on the Coastal is quite valid, and no doubt there will be seasons when Pitt doesn't catch the breaks and finishes with a poor record. It's my opinion that Pitt and Narduzzi still need to avoid this.

Well, it doesn't sound like it, until you realize that Clemson and ok st are lumped in there. IMO, those will be two losses, and Pitt will have to go 5-2 against the rest of the schedule which is a tall task in my book.

Hopefully they do it.

 

[steel_curtain]

-Duke's QB blew his leg out. You can pencil that one in for a win whenever you choose.

 

[Pittguy1980]

-Duke's QB blew his leg out. You can pencil that one in for a win whenever you choose.

Better take cuse off that automatic win line, as well as Virginia too!

 

[Swervin27]

Better take cuse off that automatic win line, as well as Virginia too!

yeah, Syracuse finished last year at the 98th team and uva was the 83rd.. but they got new coaches so im sure they will be world beaters.

 

[steel_curtain]

Better take cuse off that automatic win line, as well as Virginia too!

-Virginia, the team that lost 14 starters

-The team Pitt was beating on the road 26-13 last year in the 4th quarter until Virginia scored a late TD with 2 minutes to go. A team Chris James averaged 9 yards per carry against.

-That team? Pitt will blow them out.

-And then there is Syracuse. A team that has 2 road wins against ACC teams in the last 3 years. Another blow out win.

 

[Pittguy1980]

-Virginia, the team that lost 14 starters

-The team Pitt was beating on the road 26-13 last year in the 4th quarter until Virginia scored a late TD with 2 minutes to go. A team Chris James averaged 9 yards per carry against.

-That team? Pitt will blow them out.

-And then there is Syracuse. A team that has 2 road wins against ACC teams in the last 3 years. Another blow out win.

Pitt beat Virginia by 7. Pitt won with a last second fg at Syracuse.

I agree that they should both be wins, but let's not act like they will be cakewalk blowouts.

 

[Pittguy1980]

-Virginia, the team that lost 14 starters

-The team Pitt was beating on the road 26-13 last year in the 4th quarter until Virginia scored a late TD with 2 minutes to go. A team Chris James averaged 9 yards per carry against.

-That team? Pitt will blow them out.

-And then there is Syracuse. A team that has 2 road wins against ACC teams in the last 3 years. Another blow out win.

Oh, and btw, the Virginia game was at home. Virginia scored with about 6 minutes left and got the ball inside the Pitt 50 with a chance to tie.

Amazes me you refuse to check your facts, and that you actually thought that game was on the road.

 

[steel_curtain]

Pitt beat Virginia by 7. Pitt won with a last second fg at Syracuse.

I agree that they should both be wins, but let's not act like they will be cakewalk blowouts.

-The Virginia game was over. Are you kidding me? They scored a TD late in the game when the game was already over. Virginia wasnt even close to winning that football game. How can you even make comments when you dont watch the games. Not 1 time was Virginia threatening to beat us. We had the lead the entire game.

-Yea, the Syracuse game was tied. But unfortunately for them they dont even try to win on the road. They are one of if not the worst road P5 team in the entire country.

 

[Pittguy1980]

-The Virginia game was over. Are you kidding me? They scored a TD late in the game when the game was already over. Virginia wasnt even close to winning that football game. How can you even make comments when you dont watch the games. Not 1 time was Virginia threatening to beat us. We had the lead the entire game.

-Yea, the Syracuse game was tied. But unfortunately for them they dont even try to win on the road. They are one of if not the worst road P5 team in the entire country.

I was at the game? You said it was on the road when it was at home and you are accusing me of not watching? Virginia got within 7 with 6 minutes left, and got the ball backed th about 3 minutes left and a chance to tie, and drove past the Pitt 50. They absolutely had a chance to send it to overtime.

The cuse game...they had it tied till the end with their third string qb.

 

[steel_curtain]

I was at the game? You said it was on the road when it was at home and you are accusing me of not watching? Virginia got within 7 with 6 minutes left, and got the ball backed th about 3 minutes left and a chance to tie, and drove past the Pitt 50. They absolutely had a chance to send it to overtime.

The cuse game...they had it tied till the end with their third string qb.

-A chance to tie, but couldnt get the ball into the redzone. Meaning they were no threat.'

-I already made my prediction, its 8 wins minimum. You already made yours, 6 wins is successful.

-I get James Conner, the best player in the ACC, and I get Dewayne Hendrix, who looks to be one of the best defensive players in the ACC.

-You get a bunch of player losses and brand new coaches.

-Good luck pal.

 

[Pittguy1980]

-A chance to tie, but couldnt get the ball into the redzone. Meaning they were no threat.'

-I already made my prediction, its 8 wins minimum. You already made yours, 6 wins is successful.

-I get James Conner, the best player in the ACC, and I get Dewayne Hendrix, who looks to be one of the best defensive players in the ACC.

-You get a bunch of player losses and brand new coaches.

-Good luck pal.

Hey, I hope you are right. I also hope you won't act like a two year old if Pitt only end 7 games.

 

[steel_curtain]

Hey, I hope you are right. I also hope you won't act like a two year old if Pitt only end 7 games.

-Oklahoma State just lost 3 more players, kicked off the team, including a guard with 19 starts.

-Now replacing 6 starters on defense with NFL draft losses. And from their spring game, their defense couldnt stop anyone.

-Baylor, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss put up over 1100 yards rushing against this team in 3 games and they gave up 11 Rush touchdowns.

-Oklahoma State might have the worst defense in the entire country. Awful on defense.

 

[OriginalEther]

Well, it doesn't sound like it, until you realize that Clemson and ok st are lumped in there. IMO, those will be two losses, and Pitt will have to go 5-2 against the rest of the schedule which is a tall task in my book.

Hopefully they do it.

I don't view it that way, especially Oklahoma State. Some would also argue that Virginia and Duke are likely wins also....though I agree with your concerns about Virginia on the road.
Bottom line is, it's 5-4 against legit teams.

Pitt has won I think 12 of the last 14 against Syracuse, and its not as if Pitt has been great during that stretch. I'm going to mark that game as a win until Syracuse can win more than once a decade.

 

[steel_curtain]

I don't view it that way, especially Oklahoma State. Some would also argue that Virginia and Duke are likely wins also....though I agree with your concerns about Virginia on the road.
Bottom line is, it's 5-4 against legit teams.

Pitt has won I think 12 of the last 14 against Syracuse, and its not as if Pitt has been great during that stretch. I'm going to mark that game as a win until Syracuse can win more than once a decade.

-This is what our run game is going to do to Oklahoma state. Oklahoma State sucks. Played a weak schedule last year and was embarrassed by any team that was any good. These games were not even close. James Conner is going to have a field day against this team.

 

[pittdan77]

If you average 8 wins a season, you end up bragging about things like attendance because you're not competing for more than an okay bowl game.

It means that as a football program, you're pretty average.

 

[pittdan77]

Think of it like this, Pitt has averaged 7 wins over the last few years and most of us would feel pretty good with 8 wins this fall. I wouldn't have agreed if you told me Pitt was one win away from being a good team. Just doesn't make sense.

 

[Pittguy1980]

8 win regular seasons on average put you in the top third of power 5 teams and a consistent top 20 program.

I would be ECSTATIC if Pitt averaged 8 regular season wins a year the next 5 years.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

That really isn't true though. Stassen does a good job breaking it down, and over the last 5 years, only 27 p5 teams averaged 8 total wins a year, and you can probably knock off about 5 of those teams if you look at reg season wins only because of bowl wins.

8 reg season wins a year puts you in the top third of p5 teams.

Just making it into the top 1/3 is mediocre, IMHO. Averaging 8 wins suggests you do worse than that about half the time. A non- mediocre program does better than that- so that 7-8 win seasons are rare events occurring no more often than one year out of 5.

Where I hope Pitt gets to is having 9+ win seasons 4 out of every 5 years (average 10 wins w/bowl) and a 7-8 win season only 1 year out of 5 (averaging 8 w/bowl). Average season (mathematically) would be just over 9 wins and under 4 losses (including bowls).

 

[steel_curtain]

-Dave Wannstedt won 27 games in 3 years, and Pitt fired him. Pitt will be winning more than 8 games per year, or Narduzzi is out of here too. Just like the boosters dumped Dixon. Narduzzi will win more than 8 games per year. He can coach and is showing he can recruit, too.

 

[Pittguy1980]

Just making it into the top 1/3 is mediocre, IMHO. Averaging 8 wins suggests you do worse than that about half the time. A non- mediocre program does better than that- so that 7-8 win seasons are rare events occurring no more often than one year out of 5.

Where I hope Pitt gets to is having 9+ win seasons 4 out of every 5 years (average 10 wins w/bowl) and a 7-8 win season only 1 year out of 5 (averaging 8 w/bowl). Average season (mathematically) would be just over 9 wins and under 4 losses (including bowls).

So you want Pitt to be one of the top ten programs in the country essentially?

 

[steel_curtain]

So you want Pitt to be one of the top ten programs in the country essentially?

-Yes. Please raise the bar and not be this guy.

 

[Pittguy1980]

-Yes. Please raise the bar and not be this guy.

Like I said, when Pitt doesn't meet your idiotic goals, try not to act like a 5 year old.

 

[steel_curtain]

Like I said, when Pitt doesn't meet your idiotic goals, try not to act like a 5 year old.

-The standards will be met. And the bar will be raised moving forward. If you are a Pitt fan, I hope you like winning. Get used to it, times are changing this time around.

 

[BFo8]

-This is what our run game is going to do to Oklahoma state. Oklahoma State sucks. Played a weak schedule last year and was embarrassed by any team that was any good. These games were not even close. James Conner is going to have a field day against this team.

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They may in fact suck this season, but you do realize Oklahoma St will open up as a solid favorite in that game right?

 

[Piranha]

OSU will be an extremely tough game on the road simply based off the emotional factor of the PS game being played the week before.

 

[steel_curtain]

They may in fact suck this season, but you do realize Oklahoma St will open up as a solid favorite in that game right?

-Here's last year rankings

Total Defense

Pitt-37th
Oklahoma State-99th

Total Offense

Pitt-82nd
Oklahoma State-22nd

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/21/p2

-Oklahoma State's defense got monumentally worse. They are going to have the worst defense in the country.

-I would say Pitt got significantly better going from last year to this year with the return of James Conner.

-Bet accordingly.

 

[BFo8]

-Here's last year rankings

Total Defense

Pitt-37th
Oklahoma State-99th

Total Offense

Pitt-82nd
Oklahoma State-22nd

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/21/p2

-Oklahoma State's defense got monumentally worse. They are going to have the worst defense in the country.

-I would say Pitt got significantly better going from last year to this year with the return of James Conner.

-Bet accordingly.

So what would your opening number be?

 

[steel_curtain]

So what would your opening number be?

-Im not Vegas, I dont set the line, I just bet on it.

-All I know is, our defensive line is loaded in the future. And with a stacked D-Line opposing teams are in trouble.

-Camp and Watts, man we got 2 complete steals. Complete steals, both of them. 80's type talent.

 

[steel_curtain]

-Im not Vegas, I dont set the line, I just bet on it.

-All I know is, our defensive line is loaded in the future. And with a stacked D-Line opposing teams are in trouble.

-Camp and Watts, man we got 2 complete steals. Complete steals, both of them. 80's type talent.

-Just to put it in perspective. I watched Camp bench 435 like a piece of paper on twitter with his bench press competition down in Lakeland Florida, the video is still on there. Held the bar on chest, no belt, just jacked it up. Massive power. Watts runs a 4.7 40 at 275lb. For those that dont know, that pound for pound is arguably the best 40 time in the entire country. Blazer on the out, Power on the in. Exciting times.

-Just to put that speed in perspective. Aaron Donald runs a 4.68 40 at 285lb. And hes the best lineman in the entire NFL.

 

[BFo8]

-Im not Vegas, I dont set the line, I just bet on it.

-All I know is, our defensive line is loaded in the future. And with a stacked D-Line opposing teams are in trouble.

-Camp and Watts, man we got 2 complete steals. Complete steals, both of them. 80's type talent.

Actually no one in the world has numbers up on these games yet, usually at the end of June you will start to see some odds on select major games, of which Pitt/OSU may be one.

I haven't done any work on the upcoming season yet, but I would expect Oklahoma St to open at somewhere between a 7.5 -10 point favorite. One thing in Pitt's favor will be that it's a major look ahead spot for OSU, as they travel to Baylor the following week.

 

[steel_curtain]

Actually no one in the world has numbers up on these games yet, usually at the end of June you will start to see some odds on select major games, of which Pitt/OSU may be one.

I haven't done any work on the upcoming season yet, but I would expect Oklahoma St to open at somewhere between a 7.5 -10 point favorite. One thing in Pitt's favor will be that it's a major look ahead spot for OSU, as they travel to Baylor the following week.

-I doubt its anywhere near that high. Pitt lost to North Carolina and hosted Notre Dame the following week. Notre Dame was ranked 5th in the country. The line opened at -7.

-Oklahoma State is no where near Notre Dame.

 

[PhPanther1]

9+ wins is a huge success
8 wins is expected
7 wins is a dissapointment
6 or less us a huge failure

No goal post moving, this is what it should br for the next 3 years till we step out talent level up a knotch.

 

[Swervin27]

-Dave Wannstedt won 27 games in 3 years, and Pitt fired him. Pitt will be winning more than 8 games per year, or Narduzzi is out of here too. Just like the boosters dumped Dixon. Narduzzi will win more than 8 games per year. He can coach and is showing he can recruit, too.

Wanny was 42-31 at pitt, funny how apologists like to only pull out his best years.. Actually, taking out the FCS scrimmages which no self respecting fan should count, he is actually 38-31 at pitt.

38-31 while at pitt.. That is the true definition of mediocrity..

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

So you want Pitt to be one of the top ten programs in the country essentially?

Depends on how that is defined. But I would say around the #15 on average with an occasional shot at the MNC:

Probably something like the following would be acceptable, IMHO--

In top 10 (1 year out of 5) = #5 team on average
Between #10 and #20 (3 years out of 5) = #15 team on average
Between #20 to barely out of the top 25 (1 year out of 5) = #25 team on average.

Mathematically that is an overall average finish as the #15 team.

 

[Pittguy1980]

Depends on how that is defined. But I would say around the #15 on average with an occasional shot at the MNC:

Probably something like the following would be acceptable, IMHO--

In top 10 (1 year out of 5) = #5 team on average
Between #10 and #20 (3 years out of 5) = #15 team on average
Between #20 to barely out of the top 25 (1 year out of 5) = #25 team on average.

Mathematically that is an overall average finish as the #15 team.

No offense, but I prefer to keep my expectations realistic and enjoy Pitt football than to have them so high that I expect the team to essentially be in the playoffs every 5 years.

8 regular season wish for me indicates a very successful year for me.

 

[pittdan77]

For those of you who don't remember or weren't alive, Pitt was regularly mentioned with the college football elites in the late 70's and early 80's and regularly showed up in the polls.

Since 2000, Pitt has only finished ranked three times.
2002 9-4 #19
2004 8-4 #25
2009 10-3 #15

Pitt won 8 or more games four other times during that span and finished unranked.