They are just abusing Miami tonight. 40-19. Miami has 19 points with roughly 14 mins. left in the 2nd half. Their defense has been suffocating.
VIRGINIA
- Thread starter Pittisit4me
- Start date
UVA has really improved the last month, but this game is more about Miami than UVA.
This Miami team is so bad. Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller ain't walking through that door.
This Miami team is so bad. Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller ain't walking through that door.
Virginia is Virginia'ing. They're going to go like 15-5 in the ACC but obviously be gone by the 1st weekend.
Did I see someone saying that all of our remaining games are tossups? Off the top of my head, I already see 2 losses....UVA and Clemson. Let's face it....Tony Bennett is just a much better coach than Capel and has proven it. And we'll need to beat every other team on the remaining schedule and win at least 2 games in the ACCT to have a chance at the NIT. Facing reality sometimes sucks.
You heard it here first from the EJ! 23-11 is needed just to get into the NIT. 🤣 🤣
Can someone please ban this guy due to sheer stupidity? He is saying if we go 22-11/12-8, we only have a chance to make the NIT. Does anyone realize how stupid that is?
This is reality;
Not including the ACCT, this is reality:
17-14/8-12 = a chance
18-13/9-11 = almost a lock
19-12/10-10 = a lock
I think he meant NCAAT. Because I can't imagine anyone cares about the NIT. The only time to give the NIT an ounce a thought is after the NCAAT Selection show ends, and you find out your team is left out.
If people got banned for sheer stupidity, you and I would’ve been banned for our dumb arguments a long time ago. Stupidity drives board traffic
60-38. Vs miami
66-65 vs clemson
65-53 vs ND
69-52 vs Lville
59-53 vs NCST
65-57 vs VT
Last lost was to wake (66-47). I mean it’s clear they don’t like high scoring games. Pitts d isn’t awful. Yes they will have stretches where they don’t score, but doesn’t seem like a Duke where it gets too out of control…Take care of NCST first then worry about Virginia. They haven’t lost at home in 23 games and it would be a solid Q1 road win if Pitt somehow pulls it off.
66-65 vs clemson
65-53 vs ND
69-52 vs Lville
59-53 vs NCST
65-57 vs VT
Last lost was to wake (66-47). I mean it’s clear they don’t like high scoring games. Pitts d isn’t awful. Yes they will have stretches where they don’t score, but doesn’t seem like a Duke where it gets too out of control…Take care of NCST first then worry about Virginia. They haven’t lost at home in 23 games and it would be a solid Q1 road win if Pitt somehow pulls it off.
but obviously be gone by the 1st weekend.
I'm not one to say such things of teams that have who have won the whole thing within the last five years as that would be idiotic and idiocy is your forte...
No. He is making post after post about how we need to go like 12-8 in the ACC just to be on the bubble for the NIT
Yes. They don’t know the new rules. Lunardi now has 4 ACC teams in with Wake as first four out. If wake makes it, Pitt is already in the next 2 highest NET of ACC (VT53, Pitt64, Miami72). Regardless of record they would be taken. Even if Pitt just wins 1 or 2 more games they could automatically qualify as long as they don’t get blown out and have their net substantially lowered.
We have told him many times there are no more auto bids for the NIT so its like the old days where if you are P6, you really just have to be a few games above .500
Pitt head to head results against Virginia under Jeff Capel:
2018-19: 73-49 loss @ #2 Virginia who won the national title
2019-20: 59-56 loss at home
2020-21: 73-66 loss at #14 Virginia
2021-22: 57-56 loss at Virginia (UVA won on that crazy buzzer beater circus shot)
2022-23: 68-65 win at home
Seems like the results after year one indicate that Pitt and Capel play Virginia about as close as anyone in the ACC.
This hasn't been a typical Virginia squad. It was very much a rebuilding year. Only six players returned from last year. Only one was a starter, two were subs, one sat on the end of the bench, and two redshirted last year. There was little to no continuity present at the start of the season. That they have reached this point by February has been fun for UVa fans. That said, you should probably note that Virginia's success, or lack thereof, in the first round of the NCAAT can be predicted by the team's health. Since 2013, if a significant player is out with injury or illness, UVa doesn't get past the first weekend. (2021 might be viewed as an exception. After winning its 1st game in the ACCT, one player tested positive for covid, and the program was shut down. They had one practice prior to the loss to Ohio, and it occurred on the morning of the game, if I am not mistaken.) If everyone is healthy, they make it to the Sweet 16 at the minimum. Now, whether that is simply a correlation or if it's causation can be argued until we're blue in the face, but it does remain a fact.
Last edited:
I think Pitt is pretty bad on D. Especially in the front court. It does appear we have improved, but we improved from atrocious to still being pretty bad.
Kenpom has Pitt as the #62 defense. Virginia is #8. That’s pretty good - last year’s defense was rated outside of the top 100. It’s Pitt’s best number since Dixon’s last team…and it really isn’t far off from that team’s #53 ranking.
Virginia has a national title, elite eight, and sweet 16 since 2016. Pitt of course hasn't gotten to a sweet 16 since 2009.
2014: 1 seed, loss in Sweet 16 (2 rounds before seed line)
2015: 2 seed, lost in 2nd Round (2 rounds before seed line)
2016 1 seed, lost in Elite 8 (1 round before seed line)
2017: 5 seed, lost in 2nd Round at seed line
2018: 1 seed, lost in 1st Round (4 rounds before seed line)
2019: 1 seed, Natty
2021 and 2023: 4 seed, lost in 1st Round (2 rounds before seed line)
Bennett has the Natty but that's the only year he's advanced past his seed line. Using this metric, Jamie Dixon is the worst in history as he's never done it. Bennett may be the 2nd worst in NCAA history.
Most #1 seeds are going to bow out short of their seed line. That's common sense.
First weekend of the tourney separates the men from the boys. That's a fair criticism of Bennett. However, when you win a Natty and hang a banner at a program that has never done it before, it covers a multitude of sins.
In the game's current climate, it's pretty much pickup basketball every year. There will be a lot of turnover after this year too. They are going to lose Beekman, Groves, Minor... I think Dunn will move on to the NBA. Probably a couple of others, who knows.
Even without the week of practice in 2021, a 4 needs to find a way to win against a 13. I'm not sure they beat Creighton. That's a very losable game. And I think Gonzaga would have easily handled that UVA team. Just my opinion.
No doubt Bennett has done a helluva job this year, as he always does, but I'm still not sold on this team. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they lose at FSU Saturday. It's a very odd team. Their best 2 players aren't great shooters, one has a very limited game offensively. The best shooters aren't the best athletes and both are a bit of a liability on defense. As a team, they don't shoot free throws very well. Whatever, they are playing with confidence right now and they are winning, even if it usually isn't very pretty.
Which, btw, is the dumbest metric to go by.
Fun Fact: Shaka Smart had 5 wins to make a final four. Also fun fact, he has a worse NCAA tournament record than Jamie Dixon despite much, much better jobs. It's almost like if you judge an entire body of work on a 50 percentish luck tournament, it's a very flawed way to judge someone.
Pitt definitely needs to win at either NC State or at Virginia in the next week if they hope to keep any slim hope of bubble talk and NCCA Tournament talk alive. Winning both games which I don’t think will happen will put Pitt at 16-8 overall and 7-6 in the ACC with a NET most likely in the low to mid 50’s and with Louisville up next after that then they will definitely have a shot and will start appearing on a lot of the bracketology.
Pitt has trouble winning most games when they can't get to at least 80. They're not getting close to 80 against UVA unless UVA has 4 or 5 players out and they self-implode. If we are to win at UVA, we'll need to match them on defense, rebounding and hit a lot of 3's. That's just the trend of this year's Pitt team.
All true, but... Justin Anderson was hobbled in 2015, Isaiah Wilkins missed 2017, DeAndre Hunter missed 2018, Bennett Van der Plas missed 2023, and the entire team was in quarantine the week prior to the 2021 tournament. However, you can forget all that. From 2014 until now, UVa has the best conference record in the ACC. They've won more conference games than either Duke or UNC. Virginia fans are quite happy with that little tidbit. Judging a coach by a single-loss elimination tournament, as opposed to his body of work, is, at best, a contrivance. Furthermore, Virginia, under Coach Bennett, is graduating its players, and not in "jock majors". While not all programs are equal in difficulty at UVa, the players still have to compete in the classroom with the general student body. And, they do.
Lol that is not how it works. 60% of 1 seeds don't make the final four, 55% of 2 seeds don't make the elite eight, 53% of 3 seeds don't make the sweet 16 and so on. You forget that the odds of winning multiple games you are favored in is not a majority situation even if it is for one game; the percent multiplies negatively.
Bennett is 16-10 in the tournament, which is slightly less than you'd expect.
The injury thing works both ways though. Just my opinion, but if Chuma Okeke doesn't go down against UNC, that 2019 banner is hanging up in Auburn, Alabama instead of JPJ.
Mostly thanks to my kiddos, I claim UVA as my favorite college basketball team as well (caught 4 games Wahoo games in person this year - 3 at JPJ and the UF game in Charlotte, plan on going to a few more)
Performance:seed line is the best metric to use. It filters everything out, in a way. Jamie and Bennett are excellent regular season coaches but horrendous tournament coaches. Maybe Shaka is the same. What's his performance:seed line? Sean Miller is one of the worst also.
Its a metric. I realize its not automatic that a 1 will beat a 16 or an 8 or a 4 but you have a significant advantage. I like the metric. You may not.
That's fine, but literally most 1 seeds don't make the final four and Bennett has done better than any other UVA coach overall and much better than any but Terry Holland.
Some super interesting data here.
NCAA Tournament Performance Metrics: Keeping PASE
There are a lot of ways to measure NCAA Tournament performance. Relative to expectation, Coach Tom Izzo is No. 1 no matter how you crunch the numbers.
www.theonlycolors.com
Thanks for the details of UVA...certainly are a tough team to play and a very high probability for a loss with two freshman guards on Pitt that have never played against a pack-line D.
It’s almost like in a tournament where one unlucky break costs you an L and you can’t stack wins unless you’re at a blue blood is difficult to have a good record in?
