There have been a few posts asking whether you are happy with the progression or lack of progression of the program. I say lets wait to see how this season ends up and then go from there. Currently, we have 5 wins in games that we were picked to lose by the spread and those were NW, Syracuse twice, Duke and VT. We have 3 losses in games that we were picked to win and those are St Francis, WF and ND. So, if we are judging the team on how we were supposed to do, we are 2 games ahead of the prediction. If you are judging on some other metric, what is it?
What level should this program be at right now?
- Thread starter Bethlehemjohn
- Start date
Looking at the baseline, a .500 conference record would have been considered a win prior to the season. I'll stick with that baseline. That means a 3-2 finish to the rest of the season (games remaining without any rescheduled games). To me, outside of recruiting and anything else, that would be a successful season.
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John, again as I posted in DT's thread, I think alot of the angst and concern goes past the game by game results. It is the questionable progression of the young guys. I know, Freshmen, but you would hope to see a bit more from Jeffress and Collier at least. And then on top of that, there is nothing in the pipeline yet for 2021, and the one thing we thought we were getting with Capel was someone with a name and recruiting acumen. And I don't buy the fact that Pitt is hard to recruit to. It is an ACC job. We have been a 1 seed, ranked #1 in recent history. We have some pretty damn good You Tube footage showing what the Pete is like when we are good. Not to mention the immediate impacts of the 3 Fr Capel recruited on the fly (X, Trey and Au'diese) and then the success of Champ last year, that Freshman can come in and make an impact, again I just think this somehow should be resonating more with recruits. No recruit cares that 5 year year ago (or was it 4) under Stallings we went 0fer in conference. That's past and a different staff.
Year 3 I expected to be competing for the NCAA Tournament. Year 4 - NCAAT for sure.
We are currently below expectations but not by much. However, if we only win 1 more (as is projected) to finish 6-10, that will be pretty far below expectations.
We are currently below expectations but not by much. However, if we only win 1 more (as is projected) to finish 6-10, that will be pretty far below expectations.
Given our conference and the shape the program was in, I would have expected year 3 to be where we re-entered the tournament. There were some exciting moments in year one, but I think our progress has plateaued over the last two years.
It all comes back to recruiting for me. The time we spent swinging big and missing is really biting us right now. With no commits in 2021, I fear we’re going to be in the same situation we have been where we’re either reaching on guys out of necessity or we’re forced to hope a transfer solves all our problems.
Again, we’ve had flashes of potential and guys like Champagnie this year and XJ his freshman year that brought back glimpses of what guys should look like in the jersey. I just can’t get behind the scattershot recruiting approach that has left us way behind in the ACC arms race.
It all comes back to recruiting for me. The time we spent swinging big and missing is really biting us right now. With no commits in 2021, I fear we’re going to be in the same situation we have been where we’re either reaching on guys out of necessity or we’re forced to hope a transfer solves all our problems.
Again, we’ve had flashes of potential and guys like Champagnie this year and XJ his freshman year that brought back glimpses of what guys should look like in the jersey. I just can’t get behind the scattershot recruiting approach that has left us way behind in the ACC arms race.
The program is where it is due to 3 things:
- lack of development in Xavier Johnson
- lack of contributions from 2019 and 2020 recruits outside of Champagnie
In building a program, the poor recruiting in those 2 classes has been a major major problem and 2021 seems like it will be worse.
Pretty far below expectations if we keep losing games at the rate we currently are. Slightly below if we play .500 ball the rest of the way. It would take winning out or close to meet expectations likely.
Pitt should be a tournament team this year, or at least sweating it out on Selection Sunday even if they don’t make it.
I still think Capel is the best guy for the job. I’d call his tenure a failure after 3 years though if...
- Champ plays 2 years here, never is a part of a good team, and then leaves
- there is still no legit option at C going into next season
- we are below .500 in a down ACC at season’s end
All are very realistic possibilities, but none of it is certain yet. Wednesday could be a big turning point for this season. This State team without Daniels is extremely beatable. A loss to them and I think that’s about it for meaningful games at Pitt this season, barring a miracle run in the ACC tourney.
Pitt should be a tournament team this year, or at least sweating it out on Selection Sunday even if they don’t make it.
I still think Capel is the best guy for the job. I’d call his tenure a failure after 3 years though if...
- Champ plays 2 years here, never is a part of a good team, and then leaves
- there is still no legit option at C going into next season
- we are below .500 in a down ACC at season’s end
All are very realistic possibilities, but none of it is certain yet. Wednesday could be a big turning point for this season. This State team without Daniels is extremely beatable. A loss to them and I think that’s about it for meaningful games at Pitt this season, barring a miracle run in the ACC tourney.
Unless they surprisingly overachieve the rest of this year, they are a year behind of what I expected hiring Capel. Unless he rallies with this class, next year's roster also looks below the line of what I expected.
Why?. Many coaches could be 14-35 in the ACC. Again, Mike Young.
About right. Year 3 looking like what Year 2 should have been. Year 4 COULD be reset back to Year 1.
I'm not giving Capel a pass for the season as we've had some real highs and some real lows this year. I do however think that context is a very important thing when we are looking at freshman development through this season. The lack of OOC games against sub-par competition is a real thing when regarding development. Usually those freshman are getting eight or nine games where they can learn on the job and it doesn't kill the team. This year its different and every program is going through it.
The final few games for this season to me are absolutely meaningless. They won't shape my opinion of the state of the program in either way. Where this coaching staff has to make their money is finding a way to get this years class playing solid basketball next year. A lot of programs are going to see an incredible amount of growth in their sophomores next year and Pitt absolutely has to be one of them if Capel wants to turn this around and I'm sure that he knows that.
The final few games for this season to me are absolutely meaningless. They won't shape my opinion of the state of the program in either way. Where this coaching staff has to make their money is finding a way to get this years class playing solid basketball next year. A lot of programs are going to see an incredible amount of growth in their sophomores next year and Pitt absolutely has to be one of them if Capel wants to turn this around and I'm sure that he knows that.
Exactly where we should be, right now.
The rest of the games are of utmost importance.
The rest of the games are of utmost importance.
Honestly, it’s time to be back in the NCAA’s. If that would have happened this year, I’d say we would be “on schedule”. So if we wind up not getting there (likely), that puts us behind schedule.
Im not ready to give up on Capel. I think he can win here. But it’s time. So if we are sitting here saying the same stuff next year, maybe we start looking at 5 years as his total shelf life here.
Here is the problem. Eventually things go from “a few bad years” to the dynamic changing of the program. It happened to Pitt football in the 80s. Eventually we weren’t the same program. That probably has already happened here too, but unlike football in the 80s, I think the people and resources are here to turn it around. But we have to start having actual success. Time slips into the future quickly. We are at the point where a recruit today was in 1st or 2nd grade the last time we were a 1 seed.
Im not ready to give up on Capel. I think he can win here. But it’s time. So if we are sitting here saying the same stuff next year, maybe we start looking at 5 years as his total shelf life here.
Here is the problem. Eventually things go from “a few bad years” to the dynamic changing of the program. It happened to Pitt football in the 80s. Eventually we weren’t the same program. That probably has already happened here too, but unlike football in the 80s, I think the people and resources are here to turn it around. But we have to start having actual success. Time slips into the future quickly. We are at the point where a recruit today was in 1st or 2nd grade the last time we were a 1 seed.
Well....the next 9 months will tell you the whole story. The positive outlook would be we finish this year strong and start landing good players to finish out this class and start building momentum for the next one. I’m not even going to say the negative outlook, but I’m sure you can figure it out.
The ACC has 10 teams in the Top 70 of the NET rankings competing for an NCAA bid.. This conference is the 2nd best league in the country behind the Big Ten in my opinion.
The Big 12 has 3 teams outside of the Top 100 in the NET rankings and 2 teams outside the Top 220 in the rankings. There is too much dead weight in the Big 12 at the bottom for a 10 conference league. 4 free wins are getting stock piled by everyone else because the bottom 2 teams are terrible and Jamie Dixon's frogs certainly are not tough this year.
The Big East has 5 teams in the Top 70, half of what the ACC has.
5 Teams in the Pac-12 are worse than Top 100. A lot of dead weight and really bad teams in a bad league.
The SEC has 5 teams ranked 95th or worse in the league and has 8 teams in the Top 70 competing for a bid. On paper this conference is close to the ACC.
Take a Will Jeffress as an example. Since these players get an extra year of eligibility he's going to be a darn good upper class player. Include some of these other younger players too. All is not doom and gloom. H2P!
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The spread fluctuates depending on how you perform throughout the year, so it's not a good barometer for much of anything.
As a whole, our record is fine this year. It's mitigated by the fact that the ACC sucks, but whatever. The concerning part is that I'm not seeing much of a future being built. What am I supposed to hang my hat on after Toney, Champagnie, and Johnson all leave in the next year or so? I mean, maybe Jeffres pans out or something. And Okudale looks like he certainly belongs in the ACC, but I don't view him as some outstanding point guard of the future or anything. And then what?
I don't see anyone as talented as the big three in the pipeline, and we're below .500 in the conference even with those guys.
We are on pace.
Someone, and I can’t remember who, posted an analysis of P5 teams that went 0-fer in conference and how long it took after that to get to the NCAAT.
It takes way longer than anyone in this thread expects. Going by that, we are on track.
Someone, and I can’t remember who, posted an analysis of P5 teams that went 0-fer in conference and how long it took after that to get to the NCAAT.
It takes way longer than anyone in this thread expects. Going by that, we are on track.
I agree it’s not nearly as bad as many are making it out to be. I think there’s an argument for the ACC or the SEC as #2. I don’t see a team in the ACC capable of making a deep run though. No truly awful team in the conference, a lot of solid teams. Is that bad? Not necessarily, but this is a conference that is usually loaded.
It’s a down year in the sense that you don’t have Duke, UNC, and UVA all 3 as legit contenders... with maybe a FSU or someone else in there too. Not a bad conference at all, but if ever there was a year an outlier could win the conference I think it would be this season.
Teams that go 0-fer are generally not particularly accomplished programs and I'm not sure why we'd want that to be our measuring stick. If your goal is to become the next BC, then sure, we're in good shape.
Not taking anything away from Young, but he also had the benefit of being able to bring his best player with him from Wofford. Capel was never convincing anyone to leave Duke for Pitt.
Capel may have already lost McGowens, and the results have been disappointing... but he signed a 4 star recruit in McGowens shortly after being hired. Toney was a 24/7 4 star as well. Champagnie obviously was a great get. Jeffress is still raw and Hugley may never return, but that’s 2 more 4 stars this season.
It’s about recruiting, and with where Pitt was I highly doubt anyone else could’ve brought that much talent here. There were people losing their minds that literally no coach in America would even consider coaching here, and now all of a sudden we should be expecting better recruits than that to come play here?
Obviously Capel needs to actually turn those recruits into quality players that win games here, but I’m still gonna fall on the side that his recruiting improves here... not gets worse.
Nobody asked me but I think both Capel and Lance White were reaches considering where both programs were/are...neither has impressed in their game preparations and in game X and Os...period
We sure go over this a bunch on this board.
But the history is there, the facts are there about winless teams and how many years it takes them to get back if ever.
Its rare for year 3 and barely ever happens for previous winless teams.
The fact that we even had discussions albeit brief discussions about it this year, is good news
Is it always apples to apples, though? For instance, how many of those winless teams were in the NCAA Tournament just two years prior? How would we stack up if you took the five year average of wins, ending in the winless season, as opposed to just looking at one solitary season? UCF went 12-0 in football a couple years ago, but I wouldn't start comparing them to Ohio State because of it. Similarly, I'm not sure that we were a true 0-18 program as much as the stars just aligned, in a negative way, for one season.
I'm not implying that we weren't starting from scratch, but our program has a little more clout and a should be a little easier to build from scratch than, say, Northwestern (random example) or something. That counts for something.
Yeah. Well those are good fair questions but I'm just not sure once you fall that far that any "clout" can get you back quicker than anyone else.
However, I think we were one decent to above average big from getting to the tourney this year, so it was definitely attainable
Nobody agrees because it’s a bad argument. There’s no such thing as a reach when you go 0-18 and have historically bad fan support. Pitt is fortunate they landed Capel.
I guess I'm just saying that if, for example, Penn State and Michigan State both finish with the same conference record this year (a possibility), I wouldn't necessarily expect their respective ascents to still be the same. That pretty much is what Penn State is as a program, whereas it's more of an aberration for Michigan State, which I'd expect to see back at the top of the conference sooner rather than later. I've never really thought of us as one of the worst power conference programs in the nation, even though we had one of the worst seasons.
And I agree that we would have been one big man away this year. You could probably name a handful of guys who we were in the top 5 for in Capel's first few years here who, if we landed them, would have changed the makeup of this team drastically. One of the biggest disappointments for me right now is the fact that we still don't have that guy. There's a change Hugley could have been it (I was skeptical of him as a true ACC 5, but he was an asset nevertheless), so that obviously sucks.
I agree with you a lot on this website Ski, and while the jury is out on Capel, I have to VEHEMENTLY disagree with you here.
Jeff Capel is making over 3 mill to coach basketball in the ACC. One of 15 ACC jobs. To think that WE ARE the fortunate ones in this situation is basically what makes Pitt a loser job. PLENTY of coaches would’ve taken Pitt and just the quality of names interested in the PSU opening should be proof of that. He needed us MORE than we need him. A guy like JT3 is interested in PSU and while his tenure didn’t finish well he is surely a quality coach who would’ve taken Pitt. There’s dozens of guys like that. Just because Danny Hurley turned us down doesn’t mean they wouldn’t have landed another quality coach. IMO when the Schmidt news leaked (who most likely would’ve done a very good job here) Lyke panicked on the reaction. And her panic may have gotten a good coach who will be here a long time. But it was total
Panic imo
I think this team has talent, so I definitely think they need to be more consistent. But I’m absolutely willing to give Capel more time. Like I said, recruiting is the key. And I’ll only start to worry about Capel’s recruiting if come opening night next season we all of a sudden have a terrible roster. I’ll really worry if the same can be said the year after.
There’s still time in this season to possibly get back to looking like we’re on an upward trend. If it doesn’t happen it’ll be disappointing, but you still gotta stay the course.
Any total season W-L record this year over O.500 is an upward trend that indicates progress. Land one decent ACC quality big man transfer for next season and the upward trend will continue
Hiring a 56 year old guy who made the NCAA tournament twice in 18 years, and had never been a HC at a P6 school would have been an abject failure.
For the press conference, anyways. And HL is all about the press conferences. All hat, no cattle.
You hire a young up and coming coach who HAS to win. A guy who can sell ice to an Eskimo and provide him the resources to put together a good staff.
Ski, when JC took the job I was told from someone in the know it will be a 5 year rebuild job. People have to understand the perception of the program when Stallings left. That involves recruiting when our name was soiled from the past staff, fan attendance, etc before covid etc.
We’ll never know but I don’t know that JT3 would have been much better. I realize how good he was at Princeton but didn’t he underachieve badly at GTown? Recruited pretty good kids but never seemed to play to that level. Unless my memory is off.
I don’t disagree. I wouldn’t have been thrilled with Schmidt. I do think he’s a better coach than you’re giving him credit for but that’s a tired debate that neither of us would agree on.
So in your eyes, did we accomplish this task? And basically the entire premise of that post was that a lot of quality coaches would take the Pitt job. I don’t think we should just be so grateful that someone was willing to make 3.5 mill a year to coach in the ACC.
278-151, couple big East titles, final four, couple sweet 16’s.
Since firing him, GTown is 55-56. He was trending downwards but if PSU can land JT3 that would be an insanely good hire for a school that consistently hires poorly.
