Why the NIL is going to fail in college football

[jivecat]

Most of you know that I was a standout athlete at PITT. PITT was not my first choice but as I weighed my ability to get playing time and walk away with a valuable degree, PITT checked all the boxes. NIL is creating a false narrative and kids are gravitating toward schools simply for a paycheck. We are seeing the transparency it allows teammates on where your stand with your team. It is also creating a smaller scholarship pool for those coming out of HS. Many 3-4 stars are not more focused on programs that will value them for the next 4-5 years. The NIL money is not the deciding factor. Sure....the top NIL schools will get the best players....but they will be far from the best team in terms of depth and quantity.

 

[cashisking884]

None of this is going to happen.

In the end, those top schools giving big checks are still going to have the best facilities, best recruiters, be closer to your home and family, and provide the best financial gain, even if it isn’t what the star on the team is getting.

The top programs aren’t worried about the 3* uprising and revolt.

 

[jivecat]

Would you rather have a 3 star who has been in your program for 3 years or a high 4 star freshman? Which is more valuable to your program and team?

 

[cashisking884]

Would you rather have a 3 star who has been in your program for 3 years or a high 4 star freshman? Which is more valuable to your program and team?

I’d rather have a high 4* freshman.

 

[jivecat]

I’d rather have a high 4* freshman.

Every college coach is taking a different approach because of NIL and the the transfer portal. I just sat through a meeting of college recruiters who explained this situation. They would rather get the "right" player through the transfer portal than cross their fingers on a NIL freshman.

 

[cashisking884]

Every college coach is taking a different approach because of NIL and the the transfer portal. I just sat through a meeting of college recruiters who explained this situation. They would rather get the "right" player through the transfer portal than cross their fingers on a NIL freshman.

The question you asked me is whether I’d rather have a 3* that’s been in the program 3 years, or a big time 4* recruit?

You’ve now changed those options. In most cases the transfer isn’t going to be someone that was in *your* program for 3 years.

And were those college recruiters employed by Alabama? Georgia? Did Brian Hartline tell you this?

 

[pittdan77]

I'm not convinced the NIL is going to fail but I think the jury is still out on what dynamic it will ultimately create.

The tone of recruiting has changed, somewhat. I was oblivious to it when I was going through the process but I do see more college coaches talking about desired traits in a recruit that don't have anything to do with talent. Stuff they never said out loud before. I have my guesses as to why they are saying these things but I don't know to what end the are using these traits in their evaluation. Their job is to win so I have to imagine there will always be that temptation. All of that said, there are more "have-nots" than schools that can just have boosters write checks so it will be fascinating to watch.

 

[Upg bobcat]

It is an interesting question ... which version of Jordan Addison was a better player? The 2021 version at Pitt that was in the program for several years, or the mega-NIL deal 2022 version at USC? He accomplished more in 2021. Both teams had excellent QBs running the offense, both offenses seemed to be schemed-up really well. His success at Pitt could be because of better luck in terms of being healthier. It could be because of Pitt needing to rely on him more.

 

[cashisking884]

It is an interesting question ... which version of Jordan Addison was a better player? The 2021 version at Pitt that was in the program for several years, or the mega-NIL deal 2022 version at USC? He accomplished more in 2021. Both teams had excellent QBs running the offense, both offenses seemed to be schemed-up really well. His success at Pitt could be because of better luck in terms of being healthier. It could be because of Pitt needing to rely on him more.

But how does that question relate to the original post?

I took the poster to say that a bunch of lower recruits are going to be pissed at say Alabama for not offering them the type of money that a Bryce Young might get, and so will say, “f*ck you, I’m going to Syracuse. That will show you.” Even though Syracuse isn’t going to pay them either.

How does Addison speak to any of that? Or the collapse of NIL?

 

[Upg bobcat]

But how does that question relate to the original post?

I took the poster to say that a bunch of lower recruits are going to be pissed at say Alabama for not offering them the type of money that a Bryce Young might get, and so will say, “f*ck you, I’m going to Syracuse. That will show you.” Even though Syracuse isn’t going to pay them either.

How does Addison speak to any of that? Or the collapse of NIL?

It relates the question posed by the original poster: "Would you rather have a 3 star who has been in your program for 3 years or a high 4 star freshman? Which is more valuable to your program and team?" There is arguably value to being part of a program for a few years, as opposed to auctioning yourself off the highest bidding program every year. Being familiar with program and having a couple years of practice time with the QB could have been factors that allowed Addison to have greater success in 2021 than in 2022.

 

[cashisking884]

It relates the question posed by the original poster: "Would you rather have a 3 star who has been in your program for 3 years or a high 4 star freshman? Which is more valuable to your program and team?" There is arguably value to being part of a program for a few years, as opposed to auctioning yourself off the highest bidding program every year. Being familiar with program and having a couple years of practice time with the QB could have been factors that allowed Addison to have greater success in 2021 than in 2022.

But you’d rather have Jordan Addison for the ‘22 season. Whether you’re USC or Pitt.

There’s no lesson to be learned there. Except maybe don’t strike out on landing elite WR recruits so you don’t need to pay for Jordan Addison through the portal.

 

[h2p_5150]

Every sports league on the planet figured out the whole "some players make more money than others" issue I think college sports will sort that out too

 

[jivecat]

Every sports league on the planet figured out the whole "some players make more money than others" issue I think college sports will sort that out too

Does every sports league have a portal where a player can transfer year by year?

 

[cashisking884]

Does every sports league have a portal where a player can transfer year by year?

You only get one free transfer in college football.

And wouldn’t this kind of go against your point?

The players are frequently transferring to colleges that didnt’ want them.

Rather than this scorned lover punishment, players actually have really short memories. As do the teams.

 

[jivecat]

You only get one free transfer in college football.

And wouldn’t this kind of go against your point?

The players are frequently transferring to colleges that didnt’ want them.

Rather than this scorned lover punishment, players actually have really short memories. As do the teams.

What we are finding after the first year, it is the opposite of what you are saying (and how most perceive it).

 

[cashisking884]

What we are finding after the first year, it is the opposite of what you are saying (and how most perceive it).

No we aren’t.

The top tier of college football largely isn’t hitting the transfer portal. Because they bring in 5* and high 4* players. And have a roster good enough.

But when Alabama does come calling to Tyler Steen, he doesn’t say, “sorry, where were you when I was a 3* coming out of high school?” He says, “yes sir, Mr. Saban. Just tell me where to sign.”

 

[jivecat]

No we aren’t.

The top tier of college football largely isn’t hitting the transfer portal. Because they bring in 5* and high 4* players. And have a roster good enough.

But when Alabama does come calling to Tyler Steen, he doesn’t say, “sorry, where were you when I was a 3* coming out of high school?” He says, “yes sir, Mr. Saban. Just tell me where to sign.”

You are missing the point.

 

[cashisking884]

You are missing the point.

Yeah, I‘ve said that before. I’m struggling to understand what your point was?

I understood your initial post to be saying that NIL will not last long because there will be an uprising amongst the 3* and low 4* players. Guys that aren’t getting big NIL deals from Alabama or UGA, are going to say, “f*ck Bama and UGA.” And they will go to some lower school that supposedly values them more, whatever that means. And this will kinda hollow it these rosters at the big time schools.

But nothing you’ve posted since then has gone to that point, so I’ve acknowledged that I must be missing it.

What we are seeing in college football is top tier schools dominate high school recruiting. Alabama took one 3* player the last recruiting cycle, and it was a kicker.
And then in the rare instances when Alabama does go to the transfer portal, they are getting kids that were lowly 3* guys coming out of high school with no problem.

And so all of this goes against what I understood your initial post to be arguing.

 

[rpastir]

Most of you know that I was a standout athlete at PITT. PITT was not my first choice but as I weighed my ability to get playing time and walk away with a valuable degree, PITT checked all the boxes. NIL is creating a false narrative and kids are gravitating toward schools simply for a paycheck. We are seeing the transparency it allows teammates on where your stand with your team. It is also creating a smaller scholarship pool for those coming out of HS. Many 3-4 stars are not more focused on programs that will value them for the next 4-5 years. The NIL money is not the deciding factor. Sure....the top NIL schools will get the best players....but they will be far from the best team in terms of depth and quantity.

BTW...what sport did you stand out in while at Pitt?

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Yeah, I‘ve said that before. I’m struggling to understand what your point was?

It's because he's trolling.

 

[Pitt79]

Serious question? Who's getting NIL? Is every D1 commit getting paid NIL of some sort? Hypothetically, if you're a 3 star or less, middle of the pack guy, are you getting NIL MONEY offers to choose between or is that only for the 4s and 5s?

 

[jivecat]

Yeah, I‘ve said that before. I’m struggling to understand what your point was?

I understood your initial post to be saying that NIL will not last long because there will be an uprising amongst the 3* and low 4* players. Guys that aren’t getting big NIL deals from Alabama or UGA, are going to say, “f*ck Bama and UGA.” And they will go to some lower school that supposedly values them more, whatever that means. And this will kinda hollow it these rosters at the big time schools.

But nothing you’ve posted since then has gone to that point, so I’ve acknowledged that I must be missing it.

What we are seeing in college football is top tier schools dominate high school recruiting. Alabama took one 3* player the last recruiting cycle, and it was a kicker.
And then in the rare instances when Alabama does go to the transfer portal, they are getting kids that were lowly 3* guys coming out of high school with no problem.

And so all of this goes against what I understood your initial post to be arguing.

My point is that a 2-3 star player that has been in a team's system for 3 years is of more value (at that moment) then a 4 star recruit. Not only have they physically matured but they are better acclimated to the college game. I'm not saying the 5 star studs won't make an impact...different situation. A team full of 3 star vetted players is like a 4-5 star freshman.

 

[jivecat]

Serious question? Who's getting NIL? Is every D1 commit getting paid NIL of some sort? Hypothetically, if you're a 3 star or less, middle of the pack guy, are you getting NIL MONEY offers to choose between or is that only for the 4s and 5s?

Exactly what I am driving at....the 3 and low 4 stars are not getting any substantial money.

 

[cashisking884]

My point is that a 2-3 star player that has been in a team's system for 3 years is of more value (at that moment) then a 4 star recruit. Not only have they physically matured but they are better acclimated to the college game. I'm not saying the 5 star studs won't make an impact...different situation. A team full of 3 star vetted players is like a 4-5 star freshman.

I have no idea how that was your point in your original post.

 

[cashisking884]

It's because he's trolling.

That makes more sense.

 

[Pitt79]

Exactly what I am driving at....the 3 and low 4 stars are not getting any substantial money.

So, if they pan out, if it's about the money, they could either demand NIL where they are or jump in the portal and fish for NIL there. Say you're a 3 star and you make the All-Freshman team and star in your first year, your NIL is little, you can tell your coach or someone, "Hey, hook me up with way more NIL or I'm jumping in the portal", say you have a 5-star big NIL teammate who didn't even start, you POINT DIRECTLY AT HIM and say "pay me more than him".

 

[Chem95]

No we aren’t.

The top tier of college football largely isn’t hitting the transfer portal. Because they bring in 5* and high 4* players. And have a roster good enough.

But when Alabama does come calling to Tyler Steen, he doesn’t say, “sorry, where were you when I was a 3* coming out of high school?” He says, “yes sir, Mr. Saban. Just tell me where to sign.”

I am curious how you define this because isn't that what everyone is afraid is going to happen? Where the top tier use the NIL money to cherry pick the good players off of the 2nd and 3rd tier teams? So, do you think that situations like Addison to USC, Mesidor to Miami, Gibbs from GT to Alabama are going to be rare moving forward?

 

[cashisking884]

I am curious how you define this because isn't that what everyone is afraid is going to happen? Where the top tier use the NIL money to cherry pick the good players off of the 2nd and 3rd tier teams? So, do you think that situations like Addison to USC, Mesidor to Miami, Gibbs from GT to Alabama are going to be rare moving forward?

They are rare now, so the real question Would be: Is it going to continue to be rare?

And yes, I think for top players, it’s not worth it. If you’re on an NFL track, you’re probably going to continue with what you know.

 

[Burgh15]

My point is that a 2-3 star player that has been in a team's system for 3 years is of more value (at that moment) then a 4 star recruit. Not only have they physically matured but they are better acclimated to the college game. I'm not saying the 5 star studs won't make an impact...different situation. A team full of 3 star vetted players is like a 4-5 star freshman.

The players will have more value if they're good, but if another team (collective) is offering an NIL deal via a player's "handlers", they'll be on the first bus out of town if the school can't match. We'll see as much if not more pay-for-play with established players compared to high school recruits who've proven nothing.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

It's because he's trolling.

All of his posts make more sense when you keep that in mind.

 

[PITTfanSD]

You only get one free transfer in college football.

And wouldn’t this kind of go against your point?

The players are frequently transferring to colleges that didnt’ want them.

Rather than this scorned lover punishment, players actually have really short memories. As do the teams.

If you only get one free transfer then how is Kedon Slovis able to transfer twice in two years? What about Jurkevic? Are they grad transfers?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

If you only get one free transfer then how is Kedon Slovis able to transfer twice in two years? What about Jurkevic? Are they grad transfers?

Yeah, the rules for grad transfers are different.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

If you only get one free transfer then how is Kedon Slovis able to transfer twice in two years? What about Jurkevic? Are they grad transfers?

Yes. But the next time a non grad who wants to transfer twice mounts a lawsuit against the hapless NCAA, you can expect that lone codicil to be lifted as well.

As it is many of them find ways around it already, with dubious “hardship” stories and grievances against coaches who are mean to them, and such. Plus so many universities have meaningless, easy majors for athletes (UNC, cough) that many of ‘em interestingly seem able to obtain their bachelors after barely 2 years, putting them in the Grad category right away.

At this point it is appropriate to lift the limit anyway, end the embarrassing charades … and it’s chaos and Wild West already so what’s some more...

 

[Harlo4PITT]

Experience vs potential?
I'll take a the experienced PITT man every time. I so enjoyed watching Patti play, loves PITT and leaves nothing left in his tank in the end.

 

[jivecat]

Experience vs potential?
I'll take a the experienced PITT man every time. I so enjoyed watching Patti play, loves PITT and leaves nothing left in his tank in the end.

Perfect example of a player who improved within the system.

 

[pittdan77]

Yes. But the next time a non grad who wants to transfer twice mounts a lawsuit against the hapless NCAA, you can expect that lone codicil to be lifted as well.

Not much point in the NCAA trying to do anything when the courts have already signaled that they'll lose. Unless the member institutions want to put these kids under legitimate contracts and get congress to grant anti-trust exemptions, they really can't prevent any of it.

 

[jivecat]

Not much point in the NCAA trying to do anything when the courts have already signaled that they'll lose. Unless the member institutions want to put these kids under legitimate contracts and get congress to grant anti-trust exemptions, they really can't prevent any of it.

If I was a gambling man....I would say the "College Athlete" will eventually evolve into being an employee of the university.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Yes. But the next time a non grad who wants to transfer twice mounts a lawsuit against the hapless NCAA, you can expect that lone codicil to be lifted as well.

As it is many of them find ways around it already, with dubious “hardship” stories and grievances against coaches who are mean to them, and such. Plus so many universities have meaningless, easy majors for athletes (UNC, cough) that many of ‘em interestingly seem able to obtain their bachelors after barely 2 years, putting them in the Grad category right away.

At this point it is appropriate to lift the limit anyway, end the embarrassing charades … and it’s chaos and Wild West already so what’s some more...

You can transfer again pre graduation, you're just "supposed" to sit out a year. However, you can apply for a waiver and I'm guessing it won't be hard to get that waiver.

 

[jivecat]

You can transfer again pre graduation, you're just "supposed" to sit out a year. However, you can apply for a waiver and I'm guessing it won't be hard to get that waiver.

Gunga...can you please not respond to anything in this thread moving forward since you claim this is a "trolling" thread? Stick to other threads about Barry Bonds getting into the hall of fame and building a new PITT stadium.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]