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Women's team first-round game - vs. Chattanooga

MajorMajors

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Sep 29, 2002
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The Pitt women play the Chattanooga Mocs on Saturday at 11 am. Here's a bit of a scouting report on the Mocs (short for Mockingbirds).

It looks like the women have a formidable opponent. The Mocs have won 25 in a row and just don't lose very often.

They are 29-3 this season with impressive wins against Tennessee and Stanford - and losses to only ND, USF, and Arky State. Winning is nothing new for them, in each of the previous two seasons they were 29 and 4. Yikes.

Now they do play in the Southern Conference, but still, those are impressive numbers. Last season they lost in the first round of the NCAAs to Syracuse by 6 points. Syracuse was a good team. The previous year the Mocs lost in the first
round to Nebraska by 14 points. Can Pitt keep the Mocs from advancing past the 1st round this time?

Per game, the Mocs average 6 three-pointers; 13 turnovers, 14 assists and 9 steals. (Pitt's averages are 6,14,15, and 7.)

Pitt will match-up with them sizewise, and even have a bit of an advantage. The Mocs most dominant
player is Jasmine Joyner, who is 6-2 (and the Mocs only player over 6-foot). She must be a leaper because she averages an
impressive 6 blocks per game. She also averages 12 points (shooting an impressive 53%) and 8 rebounds. Pitt can counter her with either Monica Wignot or Stasha Carey.

The Mocs next most effective players are Chelsey Shumbert, a 5-4 guard; and Keiana Gilbert, a 5-11 guard/forward. They average 12 and 11 points per game, respectively. Pitt could counter these players with Brianna Kiesel (5-7) and Yacine Diop (5-10).

The Mocs' point guard is Alicia Payne, who is a 5-9 junior. She may be guarded by Aysia Bugg (5-7) and Chelsea Welch (5-9); Payne averages 5 points per game.

Other key players for the Mocs are KaVonne Towns (5-10) who averages 9 points and Aryanna Gilbert (5-9), who averages 8 points. Shumpert and Towns shoot 3-pointers at about a 37% success rate.

A concern that jumps out at me is that the presence of an effective shot-blocker may limit one of Pitt's offensive strengths, which is Kiesel driving to the hoop. Kiesel may have to go more to a pull-up jumper game, unless she can get some screening down low.

This may be a game where Cora McManus sees more time, because she would match up favorably against the other Mocs forwards and could be effective offensively - but you have to worry about her trying to guard quicker players.

Sagarin has the Mocs rated as No. 40 to Pitt's No. 42. The Mocs strength of schedule is only 177 versus Pitt's 31. The Mocs were 2 and 2 versus Sagarin top 50 teams while the Panthers were 4 and 9.

Should be an interesting game. Pitt can win this game if they play like they were playing earlier in the season. The
combo of Carey and Wignot should be tough for the Mocs to handle down low -- (if they go up strong and "finish" their shots, which has been a problem lately). But Pitt will need to have a decent jump-shot game going - and hopefully Kiesel, Potvin, and Wignot will hit some threes.

Go Pitt.




This post was edited on 3/19 11:04 AM by MajorMajors
 
Interestingly enough....

"Mocs" used to be short for Moccasins, and their mascot was a water moccasin.

OK, maybe that isn't so interesting, but it would be better than a mockingbird.

We will have to see what happens, but I can't imagine a scenario where giving Cora McManus more playing time against a team with a top shot blocker would work out very well. If they can get the usual few minutes out of her without her costing them too much they should be happy with that.

535 puts Pitt's odds of winning on Saturday at 41%. Then to show how huge a difference there is between the best womens teams and the next tier of teams, they have Pitt's chances of advancing to the Sweet 16 at 2%. That means their numbers show that we would have about a 1 in 20 chance to beat Tennessee.
 
Re: Interestingly enough....

Yeah, I agree that Cora is limited, but if the Mocs put the shot-blocker on Cora, who guards Carey or Wignot?

I guess the key, as usual, will be Brianna Kiesel. She got out-of-whack the last game. She needs to have a good game for Pitt to have a chance. I hope she can stay calm - this being her first NCAA tourney action...

Go Pitt.
 
My hope is.....

that the long break between the ACC tournament loss and the first round NCAA game has given the team a chance to recharge the proverbial batteries. Several players clearly hit the wall late in the season. Hopefully they took several days (or more) off after the ACC tournament to give everyone a chance to get away from basketball for a while and to get fully rested. If we can get back to more like how we were playing earlier in the season I like our chances. If we play more like how we did towards the end of the season I don't like our chances. In any event, I'll be watching and hoping for the best.
 
Good post Major. I'll add UTC Hall-of-Fame coach Jim Foster. In 37 collegiate years at St Joe's, Vandy and Ohio St, he went to the NCAA tourney 27 times.

For some reason, Ohio St fired him where he had a very high degree of success. While coaching at Vandy, he made several trips to the SEC tourney played in Chattanooga and enjoyed the city. I'm guessing that Ohio St is still paying him the difference between his salary there and the lesser amount he gets at UTC.

UTC women probably draw 2,000 to 2,500 fans per home game. Foster has been there for 2 years but the team previously has been perennial Southern Conference champs and beat Tennessee this year and a few years ago in Holly Warwick's first season replacing Pat Summit.


ChooChoo
 
Should also be of note that the game is being played roughly 2 hours from their campus so between that and the Tennessee fans in attendance, the crowd will be anything but neutral. Tennessee's average attendance this year was just over 10,000 and I'm sure UTC will have a few thousand fans there to support them.

Side note: The Pitt Women have never lost a first round NCAA game.
 
Looks like the NCAA committee picked the Pitt/Chattanooga and Tenn/Boise match-ups hoping to set up a rematch of the Vols
and the Mocs for the Tennessee fans. Hopefully Pitt can spoil the fun - but it's not going to be easy.

When the Mocs upset the Vols by 4 points back in November, the Mocs shot 53% to the Vols 38%. The Mocs Keiana Gilbert pretty much won that game for them by shooting 11 for 19. Mocs star player Jasmine Joyner might have had foul trouble - she only played 12 minutes in that game.

Go Pitt.
 
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