I was a little scared of the UNC matchup last week. UNC was playing at home. After two horrible losses. They have a big physical RB and a QB with a cannon, if accuracy issues. It wouldn't have surprised me if Pitt didn't win.
This week I feel differently. There are some external circumstances, like recent losses for one side, momentum on our side. There's the home atmosphere. That's all great, but I just think Pitt is better and matches up well with Cal.
Pitt O vs. Cal D
When they line up with a light box (5 or 6 guys in the box) they tend to be pretty vulnerable against the run.
Auburn had horrible turnovers and were behind so they didn't really get to lean on Cal as much as they otherwise would have probably liked. But they had success when they did go to the run.
Auburn's main back averaged almost 6 yards per carry.
Likewise, against Miami they struggled when going to a light box. Miami's turnovers and 4th down failures put them behind so they also had to abandon the running game but they had good success when they did run the ball. Miami's main back averaged almost 7.5 yards per carry. Once you get Cal pushed back, you could start to see them being overly aggressive. This next play is a run for Miami but you can see how hard the safeties are crashing down trying to support the front 7.
and here's another instance where Cal got him, but they used a ton of pre snap shifting and look at the safeties. That's going for broke because they were getting pushed pretty hard early. It worked for them on this play and stopped Miami's drive - but it's something to keep an eye on.
I have to be honest, I think Cal uses a LOT of window dressing but they aren't really that complicated and they aren't that athletic defensively.
There is a lot of pre snap movement but I would guess they end up in either man-to-man or Cover 3 about 80-85% of the time. They were patient against Cam Ward...and Ward tried to do way too much in the first half. He held the ball forever as Cal sat back and ran himself into sacks.
Like this. Just a very clear cover 3 shell. Not a very good pass rush. He just was incredibly indecisive and instead of taking the easy yardage, he almost blew the entire game for Miami before he got going in the second half (BY TAKING THE EASY PLAYS!).
DJU of course was guilty of the same mistake.
(He is just not good at all)
And then the worst of them all:
I don't want to overstate it but this was the most disgusting display of quarterbacking in the history of the forward pass.
It would be mildly surprising to me if Cal starts the game trying to load the box and bring pressure against Holstein and the run game. Mobile QB's have given them some trouble, partly because their front 7 is just not that athletic. I'm sure they have pressure packages to show but I overall think they will start the game making Pitt grind out the running game and trying to prevent big plays against. That would mean Reid and Hammond.
Cal definitely doesn't want a track meet. I won't say they'll be "bend don't break" but I do think they'll be very careful and try their best to force Pitt into 10 play drives rather than high pressure and risk 4-5 play touchdown drives against. They'll try to keep everything in front of them and try to goad Eli into mistakes. IF the run game gets going, that's a way to force them out of that gameplan.
That's a lot to say: Pitt needs to be patient. Take what Cal gives them. Don't force plays that aren't there. If they do that, they'll be absolutely fine.
I'll leave it with this play against Auburn. 4th down. Instead of taking the easy easy easy yardage at the bottom of the screen, Auburn's QB foolishly goes deep. Turnover on downs. They lose momentum and the game eventually by 7 points. Don't be a hero. Take what's given.
Pitt D vs. Cal O
Cal's QB is the focal point of their offense. He's pretty accurate and he's very decisive. Most of the plays seem to be scripted to get the ball out quickly and "on time".
Mendoza can also create out of structure. He's a pretty decent player.
To third downs on the same drive. The pass rush really needs to get home or at least keep Mendoza in the pocket. He doesn't have a huge arm. Make him play inside the pocket. The Cal line isn't really overly good or physical. This should be as good of a chance for Pitt's front 4 to generate pressure as they've had this season.
Get. Home.
Last, I think it will be important to watch Cal's back in the passing game, especially on important downs and distances. Cal really killed Miami with some of this stuff and it really propelled them in a game where they completely relied on big plays to stake their lead.
Miami fails to smell the rat (when the DL gets immediate pressure on the QB, they should suspect something) and a 3rd and 15 deep in their own territory turns into a huge gain that ALMOST sealed the Cal victory.
Early on 4th down, a simple dump off to the back turns into a 65 yard house call because Miami played hyper aggressive and it bit them.
I will feel better about this matchup if Pitt's front 4 gets pressure because you better be sure if they need to blitz the linebackers too much (I don't want them to avoid it, just don't be over reliant) then Cal will be looking to hit the backs in the passing game for big gains like they managed against Miami.
So my keys on defense are to get home and don't get over reliant on the blitz. Make Cal drive the field and earn their points. They aren't really built for that. They did a really nice job of scripting shots against Miami and to their credit they executed those plays through 3 quarters.
Ultimately they lost to FSU and Miami because in the 2nd half they were unable to drive the field consistently. The big plays never really came against FSU and the well dried up against Miami.
That's how I see the game playing out if it's a good one for Pitt. Limit the big plays against. Don't put yourself in situations where you're relying on the blitz too much. Get home when the rush is there. On offense, take what they give you. There's no need to play hyper aggressive and, in fact, that's probably what Cal wants. Take the easy yardage, wear them down - THEN in the second half you can force them to play more aggressively and take advantage.
I think Pitt is two touchdowns better than Cal if they don't put themselves in bad situations.
Hail to Pitt.
This week I feel differently. There are some external circumstances, like recent losses for one side, momentum on our side. There's the home atmosphere. That's all great, but I just think Pitt is better and matches up well with Cal.
Pitt O vs. Cal D
When they line up with a light box (5 or 6 guys in the box) they tend to be pretty vulnerable against the run.
Auburn had horrible turnovers and were behind so they didn't really get to lean on Cal as much as they otherwise would have probably liked. But they had success when they did go to the run.
Auburn's main back averaged almost 6 yards per carry.
Likewise, against Miami they struggled when going to a light box. Miami's turnovers and 4th down failures put them behind so they also had to abandon the running game but they had good success when they did run the ball. Miami's main back averaged almost 7.5 yards per carry. Once you get Cal pushed back, you could start to see them being overly aggressive. This next play is a run for Miami but you can see how hard the safeties are crashing down trying to support the front 7.
and here's another instance where Cal got him, but they used a ton of pre snap shifting and look at the safeties. That's going for broke because they were getting pushed pretty hard early. It worked for them on this play and stopped Miami's drive - but it's something to keep an eye on.
I have to be honest, I think Cal uses a LOT of window dressing but they aren't really that complicated and they aren't that athletic defensively.
There is a lot of pre snap movement but I would guess they end up in either man-to-man or Cover 3 about 80-85% of the time. They were patient against Cam Ward...and Ward tried to do way too much in the first half. He held the ball forever as Cal sat back and ran himself into sacks.
Like this. Just a very clear cover 3 shell. Not a very good pass rush. He just was incredibly indecisive and instead of taking the easy yardage, he almost blew the entire game for Miami before he got going in the second half (BY TAKING THE EASY PLAYS!).
DJU of course was guilty of the same mistake.
(He is just not good at all)
And then the worst of them all:
I don't want to overstate it but this was the most disgusting display of quarterbacking in the history of the forward pass.
It would be mildly surprising to me if Cal starts the game trying to load the box and bring pressure against Holstein and the run game. Mobile QB's have given them some trouble, partly because their front 7 is just not that athletic. I'm sure they have pressure packages to show but I overall think they will start the game making Pitt grind out the running game and trying to prevent big plays against. That would mean Reid and Hammond.
Cal definitely doesn't want a track meet. I won't say they'll be "bend don't break" but I do think they'll be very careful and try their best to force Pitt into 10 play drives rather than high pressure and risk 4-5 play touchdown drives against. They'll try to keep everything in front of them and try to goad Eli into mistakes. IF the run game gets going, that's a way to force them out of that gameplan.
That's a lot to say: Pitt needs to be patient. Take what Cal gives them. Don't force plays that aren't there. If they do that, they'll be absolutely fine.
I'll leave it with this play against Auburn. 4th down. Instead of taking the easy easy easy yardage at the bottom of the screen, Auburn's QB foolishly goes deep. Turnover on downs. They lose momentum and the game eventually by 7 points. Don't be a hero. Take what's given.
Pitt D vs. Cal O
Cal's QB is the focal point of their offense. He's pretty accurate and he's very decisive. Most of the plays seem to be scripted to get the ball out quickly and "on time".
Mendoza can also create out of structure. He's a pretty decent player.
To third downs on the same drive. The pass rush really needs to get home or at least keep Mendoza in the pocket. He doesn't have a huge arm. Make him play inside the pocket. The Cal line isn't really overly good or physical. This should be as good of a chance for Pitt's front 4 to generate pressure as they've had this season.
Get. Home.
Last, I think it will be important to watch Cal's back in the passing game, especially on important downs and distances. Cal really killed Miami with some of this stuff and it really propelled them in a game where they completely relied on big plays to stake their lead.
Miami fails to smell the rat (when the DL gets immediate pressure on the QB, they should suspect something) and a 3rd and 15 deep in their own territory turns into a huge gain that ALMOST sealed the Cal victory.
Early on 4th down, a simple dump off to the back turns into a 65 yard house call because Miami played hyper aggressive and it bit them.
I will feel better about this matchup if Pitt's front 4 gets pressure because you better be sure if they need to blitz the linebackers too much (I don't want them to avoid it, just don't be over reliant) then Cal will be looking to hit the backs in the passing game for big gains like they managed against Miami.
So my keys on defense are to get home and don't get over reliant on the blitz. Make Cal drive the field and earn their points. They aren't really built for that. They did a really nice job of scripting shots against Miami and to their credit they executed those plays through 3 quarters.
Ultimately they lost to FSU and Miami because in the 2nd half they were unable to drive the field consistently. The big plays never really came against FSU and the well dried up against Miami.
That's how I see the game playing out if it's a good one for Pitt. Limit the big plays against. Don't put yourself in situations where you're relying on the blitz too much. Get home when the rush is there. On offense, take what they give you. There's no need to play hyper aggressive and, in fact, that's probably what Cal wants. Take the easy yardage, wear them down - THEN in the second half you can force them to play more aggressively and take advantage.
I think Pitt is two touchdowns better than Cal if they don't put themselves in bad situations.
Hail to Pitt.
